Errol Posted November 19, 2011 Report Share Posted November 19, 2011 Eric Sprott talks to James Turk in Munich - James Turk: gold price will go above $11,000 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EzsER-T-QPU&feature=player_embedded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geisaver Posted November 19, 2011 Report Share Posted November 19, 2011 Inflation adjusted gold now higher than in 1980? US housing to gold ratio now same as 1979 low http://danielamerman.com/articles/2011/GHRatioC.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huntergatherer Posted November 19, 2011 Report Share Posted November 19, 2011 Silver Forecast to Surge to $450 and Gold to $12,000 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article28118.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted November 19, 2011 Report Share Posted November 19, 2011 Those figures are wrong. The real figure is around $8,000/t.oz now. Understated CPI Gold would need to rise more than sixfold to top the 1980 record, using a more accurate inflation-adjustment, said John Williams, an economist and the editor of Berkeley, California- based Shadowstats.com. He said the government has understated the cost of living over the past two decades with adjustments in the way it measures the basket of goods and services monitored by the U.S. consumer price index, or CPI. Gold futures for December delivery closed Oct. 16 at $1,051.50 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Comex division, gaining for a third straight week. “If the methodologies of measuring inflation in 1980 had been kept intact, gold would have to hit $7,150 to be the equivalent of the 1980 record,” Williams said. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a3w9OGzFRe3Y Inflation adjusted gold now higher than in 1980? US housing to gold ratio now same as 1979 low http://danielamerman...1/GHRatioC.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted November 20, 2011 Report Share Posted November 20, 2011 Rising silver & gold demand in China-On the Edge with Max Keiser-11-18-2011 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i_P00geLNsk&feature=player_embedded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted November 20, 2011 Report Share Posted November 20, 2011 Your explanation makes sense to me. However, your chart shows CB bullion holdings remained largely flat from 75' to 80'? Surely they could not have been that big of buyers? That was a chart I could grab quickly. It didnt show exactly what I expected, and I think there may be others which might show my concept better, but I lacked the time to research for such a chart. Can you find one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted November 20, 2011 Author Report Share Posted November 20, 2011 I believe this chart is correct, especially since the 1980 top of over $800 lasted only a couple of days or so, while we have been north of $1,600 for a long time now, so the average annual price of gold in 1979-80 was much lower (than $800). Do I think it's time to get out? No, not really yet. I've always said that the former lows are places to watch out for, but as well that this financial crisis is so much larger and that we need to look at other indicators as well. I see no reason why the average U.S. house built in the middle of nowhere in the hope for cheap oil/energy, good employment, a stable dollar, and lots of cheap debt for property speculation should not lose much more value compared to gold. Watch out for sub-50-oz prices. US housing to gold ratio now same as 1979 low http://danielamerman.com/articles/2011/GHRatioC.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted November 20, 2011 Report Share Posted November 20, 2011 Eric Sprott talks to James Turk in Munich - James Turk: gold price will go above $11,000 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EzsER-T-QPU&feature=player_embedded Be careful. Sprott may be right, but he is also "talking his own book." A hedge fund manager who has done very well said to me on Friday: "Sprott should be embarrassed about ramping silver, talking about a rise to $100, when it was approaching $50. If I had been so wrong as that, I would be losing my clients now." Instead, he is up about 60% for the year, beating Mr Sprott by some miles. Why does Eric get so much good press, when he has cost those who bought Silver near $50, so much money? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted November 20, 2011 Author Report Share Posted November 20, 2011 Instead, he is up about 60% for the year, beating Mr Sprott by some miles. And next year he's gonna lose 95% in some kind of MF II/Madoff/... desaster, or simply by betting wrong, while Sprott's silver will still be there and be worth a lot. How many years has Sprott been bullish on silver (and at what annual return?), and how many years has this hedge fund type made 60% a year? Let's not be myopic. BTW, I bet the poor hedge fund type only can't invest in silver because he has headless TA chickens/manic traders/weak hands with no fundamental clue as clients. I pity him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
50sQuiff Posted November 20, 2011 Report Share Posted November 20, 2011 Be careful. Sprott may be right, but he is also "talking his own book." A hedge fund manager who has done very well said to me on Friday: "Sprott should be embarrassed about ramping silver, talking about a rise to $100, when it was approaching $50. If I had been so wrong as that, I would be losing my clients now." Instead, he is up about 60% for the year, beating Mr Sprott by some miles. Why does Eric get so much good press, when he has cost those who bought Silver near $50, so much money? Bit of a strawman argument about Sprott from your hedge fund manager friend. Did he ever say "put all your money into silver NOW" at $50? He's always advocated dollar-cost averaging over time, as far as I know. Whether he was recommending silver at $4, $30 or $50 is immaterial. If you followed his advice you would have done very nicely. I wish I had listened earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted November 20, 2011 Report Share Posted November 20, 2011 Buy? With what? Monthly income from work, for example. On the other hand, if you bought gold sub-$1,000 then just don't worry anyway and just hold on to it if you can't buy any additional. No need to panic-trade all the time. It's going to go up on average. That assumes you are lucky enough to have a job, which brings in substantial "surplus income" Not everyone has that. Some folks rely on their trading to generate income. Perhaps B&H is only for "Salary Men" ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted November 20, 2011 Report Share Posted November 20, 2011 Bit of a strawman argument about Sprott from your hedge fund manager friend. Did he ever say "put all your money into silver NOW" at $50? He's always advocated dollar-cost averaging over time, as far as I know. Whether he was recommending silver at $4, $30 or $50 is immaterial. If you followed his advice you would have done very nicely. I wish I had listened earlier. No. But many bought for the first time between $40-50, and many also bought Sprott's Physical Silver fund when and after it was launched, and owned it at above $40 Silver. My friend point still stands, if he had been forecasting $100 Silver when Silver was pushing up to $50, it would have been very tough for him to hold onto clients in his Hedge Fund. Why do some people issue Eric Sprott "a pass" for being so wrong*? My friend would like to know how he can get one too. Not all of John Paulsen's clients are willing to sit tight in JP's fund after it dropped more than 30%. === === *"He's always advocated dollar-cost averaging over time" That only works well in a long term bull market. Dollar cost averaging in the SPX over the last 1-2 decades would have delivered no magic at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geisaver Posted November 20, 2011 Report Share Posted November 20, 2011 I believe this chart is correct, especially since the 1980 top of over $800 lasted only a couple of days or so, while we have been north of $1,600 for a long time now, so the average annual price of gold in 1979-80 was much lower (than $800). Do I think it's time to get out? No, not really yet. I've always said that the former lows are places to watch out for, but as well that this financial crisis is so much larger and that we need to look at other indicators as well. I see no reason why the average U.S. house built in the middle of nowhere in the hope for cheap oil/energy, good employment, a stable dollar, and lots of cheap debt for property speculation should not lose much more value compared to gold. Watch out for sub-50-oz prices. What do you think of the inflation adjusted gold chart? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted November 20, 2011 Author Report Share Posted November 20, 2011 Perhaps B&H is only for "Salary Men" ? The majority of the population is on some sort of monthy income, be is salary men/women, pensioners or even people on the dole. Even if you're financially independent, you might still have put money into a pension scheme or an annuity some time ago bringing in steady income. I think it's a very small percentage of the population who has all their assets in liquid assets (I include property here, but even property bought at the right time might bring a steady monthly cash flow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted November 20, 2011 Report Share Posted November 20, 2011 And next year he's gonna lose 95% in some kind of MF II/Madoff/... desaster, or simply by betting wrong, while Sprott's silver will still be there and be worth a lot. How many years has Sprott been bullish on silver (and at what annual return?), and how many years has this hedge fund type made 60% a year? Let's not be myopic. BTW, I bet the poor hedge fund type only can't invest in silver because he has headless TA chickens/manic traders/weak hands with no fundamental clue as clients. I pity him. I dont think so. He is one of the very best. Pierre Lasonde owns 10% of his fund, and has told him: "I would have done better to listen to you much more." Eric Sprott won't get a compliment like that from Lasonde. "Pierre Lassonde is one of the smartest people in the gold world." /source, comments: http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/329667-nikhil-nichani/86830-is-gold-really-as-risk-free-as-it-seems The problem with some of our B&H Wizards here, is they do not know "good" when they see it, and instead worship "comfortable." They would rather lose money in a comfortable way, rather than be truly excellent and make more money. Sprott has a big market machine behind him, but hasnt called the market nearly as well and my HF friend. Maybe you will hear him soon on FBB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted November 20, 2011 Author Report Share Posted November 20, 2011 What do you think of the inflation adjusted gold chart? That one is also correct IMO using government CPI-inflation. The reason is the same, the average in those years was much lower (around the spot prices of today, I guess) than the singular spike. See also the chart below for an illustration. Naturally, the same caution applies: this is one singular measure for relative value, which is also skewed because of the use of hedonistic government adjustments to CPI - similarly the property:gold chart is somewhat skewed because of the extent of the US housing crisis (there was no such crisis in 1980). On a government CPI-adjusted base, and on a house price base, taken as is with no other information, it looks as if a top in gold was close, but if I look at the corresponding monetary data I can just laugh at that idea. http://gold.approximity.com/1979-1980/Gold_USD_CPI-adj.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted November 20, 2011 Author Report Share Posted November 20, 2011 *"He's always advocated dollar-cost averaging over time" That only works well in a long term bull market. Exactly that's what we have in gold & silver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted November 20, 2011 Author Report Share Posted November 20, 2011 The problem with some of our B&H Wizards here, is they do not know "good" when they see it, and instead worship "comfortable." Maybe comfortable, but what about "safe"? Most of these hedge fund types only get lucky because the PTB keep the paper spiel going by pumping gazillions. One day this might simply stop working. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geisaver Posted November 20, 2011 Report Share Posted November 20, 2011 That one is also correct IMO using government CPI-inflation. The reason is the same, the average in those years was much lower (around the spot prices of today, I guess) than the singular spike. See also the chart below for an illustration. Naturally, the same caution applies: this is one singular measure for relative value, which is also skewed because of the use of hedonistic government adjustments to CPI - similarly the property:gold chart is somewhat skewed because of the extent of the US housing crisis (there was no such crisis in 1980). On a government CPI-adjusted base, and on a house price base, taken as is with no other information, it looks as if a top in gold was close, but if I look at the corresponding monetary data I can just laugh at that idea. OK thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted November 21, 2011 Report Share Posted November 21, 2011 Monthly income from work, for example. On the other hand, if you bought gold sub-$1,000 then just don't worry anyway and just hold on to it if you can't buy any additional. No need to panic-trade all the time. It's going to go up on average. "panic trade" - who does that? Do you mean take advantage of "windows of opportunity" as the market ebbs and flows. Taking profits before price drops. That's more my style, and it has shown to work well over the years. I have been trading that way for a long time, and now the Beating B&H portfolios show more the blow-by-blow of the kind of trades that I make. The Hedge Funds have to worry about losing customers if they are on the wrong wide of the market for long, and this is why my HF friend watches closely what is really happening, and doesnt rely on supposed gurus like JS and ES... EXCERPT from his latest comment: (last Friday or Saturday) " Funding concerns were certainly partly responsible for yesterday's risk-off mood across markets, and gold and silver suffered as a result. Liquidity crunch : Very dangerous for illiquid Gold and Silver markets... The liquidity in the money market is not flowing normally between banks. Tensions in the funding markets will remain through year-end, and will be more pronounced in Europe. . . . ...increase in appetite for the greenback in the FX swap market amid increasing funding concerns as solutions for solving the EU debt crisis are at an impasse. Some of this could feed into the gold forwards market, if the search for dollars becomes extreme. ...any European banks lacking the USD deposit base could increasingly struggle as their usual sources of dollar funding attempt to reduce exposure to Europe. However, some comfort may be drawn from the fact that the Fed's swap lines with the ECB remain under-utilised ... Gold picture : Not a safehaven for now... Perhaps you can read about these issues in the mainstream and on Gold Purist sites AFTER they effect the market price. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted November 21, 2011 Report Share Posted November 21, 2011 Maybe comfortable, but what about "safe"? Most of these hedge fund types only get lucky because the PTB keep the paper spiel going by pumping gazillions. One day this might simply stop working. I think he has about 30-40% of his fund in physical precious metals, and he uses options to hedge the price risk. The fund might look a bit like the Alternative Portfolios on the Beating B&H thread: http://tinyurl.com/BeatingBH I am now 50-60% in physical silver in those portfolios. But I know he trades more mining stocks (and even some private equity) than my AP's do. I don't know why you knock a guy (mr HF) who knows far more about the macro situation than most of the so-called experts quoted here? They mostly have products or funds to sell and are just "talking their own books." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted November 21, 2011 Author Report Share Posted November 21, 2011 Gold picture : Not a safehaven for now...[/i] Someone who thinks that 'safehaven' status can change on a daily basis IMO does not understand or appreciate the real meaning of the word. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted November 21, 2011 Author Report Share Posted November 21, 2011 I don't know why you knock a guy (mr HF) who knows far more about the macro situation than most of the so-called experts quoted here? They mostly have products or funds to sell and are just "talking their own books." It's like religion or philosophy: you can only discuss so much before you better stop (because there is no point). Hedging gold and silver is IMO less clever than some people like e.g. Jim Puplava propose (BTW, he is also the typical fund manager type of victim of weak hand clients, because IMO he himself would never hedge gold because he knows it's going to go much higher, so why spend the money?). Options cost money and they come with counterparty risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tinecu Posted November 21, 2011 Report Share Posted November 21, 2011 Gold picture : Not a safehaven for now... Looks good to me and likely to surge in Dec/Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolf Posted November 21, 2011 Report Share Posted November 21, 2011 Looks good to me and likely to surge in Dec/Jan. And if it continues to fall people who went back in December will lose. Why try and second-guess the market? I am a swing trader and will wait until I have a buy signal before re-entry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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