GOLD

[pjohnp]

When is THE Top? I cannot tell you that. But maybe you do not even need to know that. In 2001 I sold my London property ... "too early" ...

 

Thanks for this. I know very little about economics, but have always admired Bernard Baruch, the "park-bench statesman". He used to say "I made my money by selling too soon". That's been my approach, and after taking a deep breath and borrowing a lot of money to buy gold a few years ago, I've been selling it too soon for quite a while now, and have paid back my debts and still have about £50,000-worth (more than all my assets before I started). It's been by a long chalk the best financial decision of my life, and I'm very grateful to these boards -- not least you and your antagonist the quasi-hoarder Goldfinger.

[sine270]

I just dont understand what all the arguments are about.

 

Everyone here is making money on gold right? RIGHT???

 

So whats the problem? Why not wait until some people have lost their shirts then we might have something to fight about. Personally I find it quite easy to keep my mouth shut and sleep easy. But maybe thats becuse I've been Buy and Hold for the last 7 years. I've bought at peaks, I've bought at troughs and I've bought half way between the two, and its hardly made any difference. It hasn't been necessary to be clever. All it took was to believe in Dr B when he was ramping gold back in 2005

[Manual labourer]

Thanks for this. I know very little about economics, but have always admired Bernard Baruch, the "park-bench statesman". He used to say "I made my money by selling too soon". That's been my approach, and after taking a deep breath and borrowing a lot of money to buy gold a few years ago, I've been selling it too soon for quite a while now, and have paid back my debts and still have about £50,000-worth (more than all my assets before I started). It's been by a long chalk the best financial decision of my life, and I'm very grateful to these boards -- not least you and your antagonist the quasi-hoarder Goldfinger.

 

 

Top man we need a few more honest good to hear stories like that!

 

Are you still holding the 50k in gold or have you cashed out into Fiat?

 

Regards

 

ML

[pjohnp]

Are you still holding the 50k in gold ...

That's the residue of physical gold that I have ... but (burglars please note) I don't keep it at home. So it's real profit, and I'm only gradually easing out of it -- broadly speaking by selling half every time it doubles in value (though the process is a bit more complex than that, because it doesn't double very often, and won't keep doing so for ever.)

[drbubb]

It will be interesting to see if GLD/Gold ... update

 

 

...will be still above $140 at the end of April. I expect that at least 90% of our regular posters would expect to see that. My own guess now would be that there is a more than 20-30% chance that GLD will at least touch $140 within Q2 2012.

 

What do others think the odds of that happening would be?

[halight]

Old proverb!

 

Nail that stands proud always gets hammered down!

 

 

That is life my friend!

 

Regards

 

ML

 

 

Never heard that one before, but i like. it.

[Manual labourer]

That's the residue of physical gold that I have ... but (burglars please note) I don't keep it at home. So it's real profit, and I'm only gradually easing out of it -- broadly speaking by selling half every time it doubles in value (though the process is a bit more complex than that, because it doesn't double very often, and won't keep doing so for ever.)

 

Yep it wont keep doubling. However as long as your new exit strat works for you then that is great. I keep mine in a bank vault far away from here same reason as you costs very little.

 

When the time is up for gold ie the system has gone bust and I am out of most of my holdings, I plan to keep to keep a yearly float of 10% of my whatever wealth I hold for that year as long as I can see.

 

Do you think you will hold onto a percentage of yours for long term insurance?

 

Or do you envisage being totally out of PMS at some point?

 

Regards

 

Ml

[malvern hills]

It will be interesting to see if GLD/Gold ... update

 

 

...will be still above $140 at the end of April. I expect that at least 90% of our regular posters would expect to see that. My own guess now would be that there is a more than 20-30% chance that GLD will at least touch $140 within Q2 2012.

 

What do others think the odds of that happening would be?

 

FWIW I think there is massive support at $1500 to $1600, and that would align with the large H and S forming on the charts. One thing that did surprise me about this recent price drop was that equities did not drop atall in comparison. From my past experience they have been correlated at the inflexion points.

 

I would have thought the stock markets would have dropped in lockstep if loss of further prospects for loosening policy was the trigger.

[Manual labourer]

FWIW I think there is massive support at $1500 to $1600, and that would align with the large H and S forming on the charts. One thing that did surprise me about this recent price drop was that equities did not drop atall in comparison. From my past experience they have been correlated at the inflexion points.

 

I would have thought the stock markets would have dropped in lockstep if loss of further prospects for loosening policy was the trigger.

 

Chinese aren't holding as high a percentage of $bonds as previously, could trigger raising of $ interest rates by Us which could be bad for gld?

 

Could of been reason for gld isolated drop ?

 

Regards

 

ML

[malvern hills]

Chinese aren't hlding as high a percentage of $bonds as previously, could trigger raising of $ interest rates by Us which could be bad for gld?

 

Could of been reason for gld isolated drop ?

 

Regards

 

ML

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1330693200.php

 

The above might have something to do with it.

[Manual labourer]

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1330693200.php

 

The above might have something to do with it.

 

Yeah, I had heard JP dropped a ship load I think to test the market who knows ?

 

Could be somebody like the flipper testing the market out!

 

http://www.trading-naked.com/library/paul-rotter-trader-monthly.pdf

 

I must say at the moment I see 1500 tested on the cards ?

 

Regards

 

Ml

[halight]

I dont follow anyone relly. I do read sinclairs stuff, but i read many websites and blogs

I always try to act on my own mind. I come onto the net to get the info i need. i also buy and read books, news papers. I download podcast and get all the info that i feel i need. That means for and agenst staments.

I then act on my own mind not sombodys elses mind. I take all comments on bord. And yes this has ment that iv lost money in the past, But thats all part of the learning curve.

 

I belive that we are now in the end game as far as our current system stands. Im long tearm bullish on Gold because of this. But this endgame could end up being played out for much longer than anyone of us thinks. It could go on for another 10 or even 20 years. Goverments are willing to do anything they can to keep all the plates spining, and they will.

We therefore must keep in mind that over the next few years or however long it takes, Gold will have big moves down and big moves up. The price could over shoot and under shoot its real vaule. The same goes for cotten,oil,coffee,copper whatever. And we must use everthing we can to build and keep wealth.

 

I turned up late in the Gold and silver market. By the time i took any notice of it, it was around $1200 I then spent quite a few months reading up on it. I then decided to buy into the market last year after the big fall from $1900. I looking to add more to my bullionvault account now.

 

I love raeding everyones posts on this site, Iv got a great deal out of it. For that i thank you all. It would be a shame if anyone felt that they were not wonted on here because thay have a differnt view from others.

reading what others write can be very usefull. but fowllowing someone blindly can make you a lot of trouble,

[Thelliand]

Peak gold?

 

http://www.sciencemag.org/content/335/6072/1038

 

Read Science every week, first time I've ever seen an article on gold.

[Carlton]

?? That point makes no sense at all !

I do not know exactly where he was born - so I can hardly be called a liar.

There is increasing evidence that his Birth Certificate is forged, or doctored.

All he needs to do is get Hawaii to send a copy of a genuine certificate to the Electorial boards of 50 states. Instead he spends millions fighting various court cases. Why?

The birthers wanted him to release the "Certificate of Live Birth." He finally did. As was totally predictable, the birthers now say that document was forged - which is why he resisted releasing it in the first place - you can't reason with conspiracy theorists.

 

No other US president has had their qualifications challenged in this manner. Why?

[malvern hills]

The birthers wanted him to release the "Certificate of Live Birth." He finally did. As was totally predictable, the birthers now say that document was forged - which is why he resisted releasing it in the first place - you can't reason with conspiracy theorists.

 

No other US president has had their qualifications challenged in this manner. Why?

 

Probably because they were all born in Amerika.

[halight]

Peak gold?

 

http://www.sciencemag.org/content/335/6072/1038

 

Read Science every week, first time I've ever seen an article on gold.

[/quote

 

I posted a few weeks back about peak everything. I think it may have been on the oil thred.

 

It dose seem that we have mined anything that is easy to get at. Im sure that there is a lot more Gold,silver,rear earth,oil and all the reat, But its getting at it. in today world you can not just go into a rain fostst and start digging a great big hole. Im betting that the north pole holds a graet big undergrounf lake of oil. But who is going to let you start takeing it out of the ground ?

 

All teh easy cheep stuff might now have been taken out of teh ground. Or we are on the way there.

Looks like higer costs in everything for the comming years.

[halight]

Eric Sprott: Paper Prices Are a Joke: Prepare for Bullion Prices to Go SuperNova!

 

http://silverdoctors.blogspot.com/2012/03/eric-sprott-paper-prices-are-joke.html?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitterfeed

 

 

What do you guys of eric sprott ?

Im not sure what i think of him.

 

 

Just too add, I do like some of his interviews that are on youtube.

[romans holiday]

I'm reminded of the observation of Dr Johnson in Edinburgh, hearing two women arguing across the street, from the upper storey of one house to another: "They'll never agree, because they're arguing from different premises".

Too true.

It seems to me that "buy & hold" is only half a strategy. For what purpose, and for how long, should I hold it? (I expect to be dead in the next thirty or forty years.) I'd like to hear more about exit strategies and timing: neither traders like Dr B nor hoarders lke GF give me quite what I need. When they dissatisfy me good-naturedly it's one thing ... but when this thread is both unhelpful and bad-tempered, I can do without it.

 

Yes B & H is only half a strategy. Making it a whole one runs the risk of turning into a miser. I've had a counter-balancing strategy to B & H for some time now. Trade the volatility of silver in order to gain dollars not ounces. Sell on the next large spike and there is your realized profits and exit plan. There is now a window of opportunity for anyone wanting to look into this hedging strategy. Silver looks to have bottomed and looks a good buy. All in gold? Sell some for silver, or if feeling adventurous a silver leveraged ETF. Further information on this trade here:

 

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=9164&pid=241603&st=260entry241603

[romans holiday]

It will be interesting to see if GLD/Gold ... update

 

 

...will be still above $140 at the end of April. I expect that at least 90% of our regular posters would expect to see that. My own guess now would be that there is a more than 20-30% chance that GLD will at least touch $140 within Q2 2012.

 

What do others think the odds of that happening would be?

90% chance it won't touch $140. I think you're projecting your own view onto that chart. The trend is the other way, and the correction looks to have bottomed.

[Errol]

Would be good if it did go that low though. The lower the better really. Gold would be on sale!

[sine270]

90% chance it won't touch $140. I think you're projecting your own view onto that chart. The trend is the other way.

 

I was thinking that. It all just depends where you draw the lines.

[romans holiday]

I was thinking that. It all just depends where you draw the lines.

Yes, when you start drawing trend lines, the longer ones are the more reliable. When gold spikes well above the trend then you're pretty safe to predict a correction. But it looks now that most of the correction has played out, and the price is back in line with the long trend. Of course, it could easily come off another $50 to 1650 odd... the tail end of the correction within the long term trend. Then with gold back to its solid baseline it could well spike through 2000 this year.

 

 

[romans holiday]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/02/us-markets-precious-idUSTRE80T1QZ20120302

 

Gold falls 3.5 percent in the week, more weakness seen

 

(Reuters) - Gold fell on Friday as the dollar rallied, notching its biggest weekly decline this year, and the metal remained vulnerable to drop further after a tumble earlier in the week shook bullion investor confidence.

 

Losses in crude oil, euro and U.S. equities weighed on bullion prices, which posted a 3.5 percent weekly decline.

 

Further profit-taking was possible, as one or more large funds possibly sold after U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke did not signal another round of monetary easing was imminent, sparking a 5 percent sell-off on Wednesday.

...

Despite this week's pullback, the metal is still 9 percent higher year after the Fed said in January it would keep U.S. interest rates near zero until at least 2014.

 

Gold started the week with a rally to a 3-1/2 month high on economic uncertainty after the European Central Bank gave half a trillion euros of cheap loans to banks.

 

However, sentiment turned bearish when some investors interpreted the ECB move and Bernanke's remarks the possible end of further monetary easing.

...

On charts, gold's present pattern resembled an initial break and acceleration in early 2006 before bullion resumed its long-term bull run, said Tom Fitzpatrick, chief technical strategist of CitiFX, Citigroup's technical research unit.

 

"In the near term, there is a real danger that we could see better buying levels in the region of $1,600," he said.

 

Highlighting the resilience of investors, holdings of gold in the world's largest exchange-traded products, a measure of shorter-term shifts in investor appetite for bullion, rose a record.

 

Bullion held by the world's top gold ETFs tracked by Reuters hit an all-time high of more than 70.76 million ounces, having their largest net inflows this week since early January.

 

Suki Cooper, precious metals analyst at Barclays Capital said investor appetite for gold remained healthy due to decent physical demand, negative real interest rates and longer-term inflationary concerns.

[G0ldfinger]

Personally, I am against a Gold backed currency, for a number of reasons. But the well-financed Gold Bulls will keep pushing for it.

In fact, I am against it too, because it will just mean more manipulation of gold by central banksters.

 

What I want is (tax-) free competition of currencies, including gold and silver. Then we'll soon see how the paper turds are doing.

[G0ldfinger]

"Sinclair was right, is right, and will be right (on the price of gold)," - GF.

No one jumps in the attack this comment. (!!) Were more complacent words ever spoken in this debate ?

Errrh. He was right in 1980. He has been right in 2011 (except for being a few months off the time line). And I truly believe he will be right in that we will see a much higher gold price.