GOLD

[ConvertedGoldBug]

The Poll is a good idea. We can start next month.

I find polls annoying, because these update the date/time of the latest post in a thread, even though it's not a new post but just someone voted.

 

I like to have this forum open, and occasionally refresh it throughout the day, and don't like the idea of it showing "misleading" new entries.

 

Also, what happens if gold/silver become overbought during the month, and are due a correction (or vice versa)? Surely votes of "underpriced" at the beginning the month could quickly no longer reflect general opinion if suddenly everyone thinks "overpriced"...

[ConvertedGoldBug]

I'd like to ask a question about silver in this thread... (seeing as more people are likely to read it than the dedicated silver thread in another section of this forum).... feel free to move it if you wish.

 

I read a lot of doom-mongers on the Kitco and GoldIsMoney forums... they sound like they're mostly Americans who live in remote/isolated locations... and talk about the end of the world, and hoarding/buying Silver Eagles like there's no tomorrow, in the belief that the financial system will collapse and they'll be ok because they'll have their alternate currency.

 

Well, this got me thinking, what about people living in other countries, where there isn't necessarily a readily available supply of recognised coinage to own? Here in the UK, the official coin is the Britannia, but you can hardly buy them in stacks of, say, 20 like you can for other countries. In fact, somewhere like CoinInvestDirect don't even sell Britannias, I had to get one from Ebay, just because I wanted one for the "collection".

 

Now I for one minute don't believe in the scenarios of the aforementioned doom-mongers, but say it happened, I'd presume you'd only be protected if you owned alternative currency from your own country of residence? Who in the UK would accept Eagles or Maples as payment? All we've really got is our smallest gold sovereigns...

[Magpie]

Now I for one minute don't believe in the scenarios of the aforementioned doom-mongers, but say it happened, I'd presume you'd only be protected if you owned alternative currency from your own country of residence? Who in the UK would accept Eagles or Maples as payment? All we've really got is our smallest gold sovereigns...

 

Wouldn't the theory be that any gold or silver coin (or in any other form) would be something that could be used as payment given the Mad Max scenario where currencies and economies collapse? A fiat coin gets its value from the fact that we trust it will be accepted, from a social convention. But a silver or gold coin gets its value from the metal content, which is a rather different thing.

 

I always mention the fact that in those situations, you'd only really be protected if you also had guns, bullets, petrol, water, tin cans or whatever as well as gold/silver. But the gold/silver might come in handy so long as you could protect it...

 

[wren]

I find polls annoying, because these update the date/time of the latest post in a thread, even though it's not a new post but just someone voted.

 

I like to have this forum open, and occasionally refresh it throughout the day, and don't like the idea of it showing "misleading" new entries.

Yes, I forgot about that. But wouldn't most votes be done in the first few days of the month so it's not a very frequent problem?

Also, what happens if gold/silver become overbought during the month, and are due a correction (or vice versa)? Surely votes of "underpriced" at the beginning the month could quickly no longer reflect general opinion if suddenly everyone thinks "overpriced"...

I was thinking medium to long term not short term. So for long-term buy-and-hold investors thinking of exiting or not.

 

[wren]

I forgot two options: don't know and don't care. This poll is for long-term sentiment.

For the long-term buy-and-hold investor, do you think the price of gold is?

 

1) very overpriced

2) overpriced

3) a little overpriced

4) about sensible

5) a little underpriced

6) underpriced

7) very underpriced

 

8) Don't know

9) Don't care

I'm sure DrBubb could word it better. Same for silver.

 

In spite of CGB's objection on balance I still think this would be worthwhile.

 

At present I would vote 5) a little underpriced.

 

@Steve. I think a separate thread, maybe "Exit Strategies for Gold" or something, could be a good idea.

[Compounded]

but it is a sad state of affairs when gold is a good investment

 

I beleive it's true at the moment.

 

Keep 5% in gold and hope it does not perform - a quote from who knows where but true IMO.

 

Cgnao is IMO right or at least odds on right.

 

Derivatives, credit bubble, NR, mortgage madness and HPC all suggest a Kondratiev winter is an imminent

 

I am a saver, not a waster.

 

I want to keep it, hopefully grow it and retire comfortably.

 

The only question I need an answer to is when to exit gold - it's not now I know that.

 

 

[wren]

Wouldn't the theory be that any gold or silver coin (or in any other form) would be something that could be used as payment given the Mad Max scenario where currencies and economies collapse? A fiat coin gets its value from the fact that we trust it will be accepted, from a social convention. But a silver or gold coin gets its value from the metal content, which is a rather different thing.

 

I always mention the fact that in those situations, you'd only really be protected if you also had guns, bullets, petrol, water, tin cans or whatever as well as gold/silver. But the gold/silver might come in handy so long as you could protect it...

I agree. The main thing is to have well known coins which can be easily recognised and accepted even if minted in another country. In the not-so-distant past silver and gold coins of various mints could still be accepted in other countries so long as they were well known.

 

If some extreme collapse were to occur gold and silver would not drop to zero value unless division of labour and trade ceased beyond, say, the extended family level. If more than minimal trade occurs some form of money is needed to overcome the impracticalities of barter (which could be done sometimes but often not). This is where gold and silver would be extremely useful, probably the money of choice in most places.

 

I'm not a doom-monger, survivalist nut myself.

[G0ldfinger]

...

Oh and of course can't leave without saying 'SELL SELL SELLL YOUR GOLD'

STC, good to see you all well. I see your comments are of an as high quality as usual. Tell everyone over at HPC my best wishes. GF

[ConvertedGoldBug]

Yes, I forgot about that. But wouldn't most votes be done in the first few days of the month so it's not a very frequent problem?

 

I was thinking medium to long term not short term. So for long-term buy-and-hold investors thinking of exiting or not.

My point was that Dr Bubb suggested attaching the poll to this Gold discussion thread, which starts from new each month... so the poll would reflect monthly opinions, not long-term, which means in the short span of a month, we could go from underpriced to overpriced and back again.

 

But I would be completely in favour of a separate thread for exit strategies, and include the poll on that... but again, once you've voted, you can't vote again....

 

Hmmm... swings and roundabouts I think.... we'd have to have a monthly poll, so that the same people can vote each month, but then again, a lot can happen in that month, so it would have to be made clear that the options in the poll reflect longer-term, and not just the opinion for that particular point in time.

[wren]

My point was that Dr Bubb suggested attaching the poll to this Gold discussion thread, which starts from new each month... so the poll would reflect monthly opinions, not long-term, which means in the short span of a month, we could go from underpriced to overpriced and back again.

Yes, in fact, I was the one who suggested attaching a poll and now I see the potential for confusion or at least inconvenience.

 

I intended something which would measure like are we still early in the bull market, or about the middle, or are we near the end? (i.e. time for the buy-and-hold type guys to think of exiting). And mere dollar prices are inadequate for forecasting since $2000 would still be cheap if a loaf of bread costs $15, sort of thing.

 

Just that we already have a monthly thread and it felt convenient to use it also as a monthly poll of bullish-bearish sentiment in the longer term, most certainly not short term.

 

But I would be completely in favour of a separate thread for exit strategies, and include the poll on that... but again, once you've voted, you can't vote again....

 

Hmmm... swings and roundabouts I think.... we'd have to have a monthly poll, so that the same people can vote each month, but then again, a lot can happen in that month, so it would have to be made clear that the options in the poll reflect longer-term, and not just the opinion for that particular point in time.

Yeah, but we don't have a monthly thread on exit strategies, and maybe that wouldn't be popular.

 

Anyway, we can wait to get feedback from the others. It was just a suggestion.

[Gatesy]

Wouldn't the theory be that any gold or silver coin (or in any other form) would be something that could be used as payment given the Mad Max scenario

 

I vote that all references to Mad Max are now replaced with references to Doomsday, a slightly different kettle of fish but a new cult classic from the creator of Dogsoldiers ! (Bob Hoskins actually refers to "pound notes" in the year 2035 (or something) so even with central London being completely cordoned off due to the lergy virus the fiat remains intact....

 

[Magpie]

I vote that all references to Mad Max are now replaced with references to Doomsday, a slightly different kettle of fish but a new cult classic from the creator of Dogsoldiers ! (Bob Hoskins actually refers to "pound notes" in the year 2035 (or something) so even with central London being completely cordoned off due to the lergy virus the fiat remains intact....

 

Sorry, my cultural references are getting dated, such a sign of ageing...

 

[qwerty]

Sorry, my cultural references are getting dated, such a sign of ageing...

 

A little more up to date and maybe more relevant depending on which side of the oil global warming vs Sunspots fence you are on.

 

Doomsday, a slightly different kettle of fish

 

 

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0114898/

 

 

 

[G0ldfinger]

The Chinese Yuan (how many Yuan $1 buys).

 

[qwerty]

The Chinese Yuan (how many Yuan $1 buys).

 

 

 

Fast becoming my favorite blog is Jesse's Cafe! One of the best selling books in China

 

We can't help but note in passing that one of the best selling books in the emerging economy of the People's Republic of China is Currency Wars by Song Hongbing.

 

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2...of-america.html

 

http://www.thechinaweekly.co.uk/chinaweekl...eoftheweek.html

[Steve Netwriter]

Fast becoming my favorite blog is Jesse's Cafe! One of the best selling books in China

 

 

 

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2...of-america.html

 

http://www.thechinaweekly.co.uk/chinaweekl...eoftheweek.html

 

Very interesting, thanks

 

[Steve Netwriter]

Gold and Silver Breakout on the Failure of US Brand of Capitalism

Commodities / Gold & Silver May 22, 2008 - 03:38 PM

 

By: Jim_Willie_CB

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article4804.html

 

The safety net for individuals is built with gold, silver, oil, gas, and other tangible things.

 

Do not invest in Exchange Traded Funds. Why invest in something controlled by financial entities, most of which are corrupt with a track record of market control via fraudulent means? Take possession and avoid the lazy route of permitting a financial firm based in the US or UK to control your assets. ETFunds are part of their plan to control markets and to suppress key prices like gold.

 

[notanewmember]

ETFS are new instruments -[how old is PHAU ?] for the multi year long, long term investor - avoid. They haven't been tested in the long term.

 

I d only use ETFs as a short term trade to jump in and out of.

[Steve Netwriter]

Why derivatives are getting much more dangerous

http://www.moneyweek.com/file/47668/why-de...-dangerous.html

 

Sometimes when you’re scouring the news, you see a statistic that renders you almost speechless. You can't quite get your head around what it really means, you just know that it’s a knockout number.

 

One such figure came up yesterday. The total ‘value' of global derivatives - financial instruments which are priced on the back of the underlying assets that they track - has now reached a breathtaking $596 trillion, after a mammoth rise over the previous twelve months.

 

That started the warning lights flashing…

.....

Of course, the $596 trillion is a ‘notional’ amount. It’s the nominal value of all the underlying assets against which bets have been placed. But the actual amount of ‘real’ money at risk is still a massive $15 trillion, equal to almost a quarter of world output.

 

And within the individual areas there’s one even more eye-catching statistic. The value of contracts in credit default swaps (CDS) - a form of market insurance that investors can buy to protect themselves against corporate bond defaults - more than quadrupled last year to $2 trillion, covering a notional $58 trillion of loan debt.

 

The very size of all these numbers is just about enough to give the jitters to anyone, on the basis that when things can go wrong, they probably will.

 

[G0ldfinger]

Can't download hours 2 & 3 of the FSN show this weekend. Anyone having the same problem? The other hours work.

[Steve Netwriter]

Can't download hours 2 & 3 of the FSN show this weekend. Anyone having the same problem? The other hours work.

 

Same problem for hour 2 mp3 file for me

 

And I was just in the mood for a Trillion Dollar Meltdown

 

[Steve Netwriter]

They don't seem to have hours 2 & 3 listed:

 

http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/

 

[G0ldfinger]

Same problem for hour 2 mp3 file for me

 

And I was just in the mood for a Trillion Dollar Meltdown

I guess I will listen through some KER shows first until they have fixed it.

[notanewmember]

I noticed on Thursday Sun Newspaper, there was a advert from Austin Kaye [www.austinkaye.co.uk] near the front of the paper, on page 6, they are paying "INSTANT CASH FOR YOUR UNWANTED GOLD - SELL NOW WHILE GOLD IS AT AN ALL TIME HIGH!"

 

 

Questions

 

1. Why would they buy your gold if the gold pricecould fall?

 

2. Do they melt it down and sell it on ?

 

3. If these adverts are getting more common place is it time to SELL, BUY or HOLD?

 

 

They buy any gold jewellery - says Krugerrands, Sovereigns etc.

[Steve Netwriter]

I guess I will listen through some KER shows first until they have fixed it.

 

Did you listen to hour 1 ?

I think I need to listen to that again.

 

The bit that struck me was something like "Yes there is a bubble. There is a bubble of the US$, which is about to burst" !

 

Given the rest of that hour, that seems to make a lot more sense than any suggestion that gold is in a bubble. As they said, is the price going up while supply is growing ?

 

May 24, 2008

http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2008-0524-1.mp3