woody Posted June 26, 2008 Report Share Posted June 26, 2008 Mervyn King: Expect a one year pause in living standards Interesting. Right timing to be the catalyst for this move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted June 26, 2008 Author Report Share Posted June 26, 2008 ... It got a little bit scary in the period between the inventory and Fed announcements and I nearly got stopped out several times. Thankfully, I hung in and am back in profit on the short-term positions. ... Is inflationary thinking taking hold of you? The rest of the population might be with you. We have now IMO a somewhat bullish pattern of climbing lows since the big one around May 4/5. The big hurdle will be $950 IMO. But a buyer like today can smash through it in no time, and Goldman sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted June 26, 2008 Report Share Posted June 26, 2008 I feel sorry for these guys... ...really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted June 26, 2008 Report Share Posted June 26, 2008 Mervyn King: Expect a one year pause in living standards Interesting. Right timing to be the catalyst for this move. Is the power of positive thinking all these Central Banker types can resort to these days? Shows how impotent they really are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted June 26, 2008 Author Report Share Posted June 26, 2008 Mervyn King: Expect a one year pause in living standards Interesting. Right timing to be the catalyst for this move. King is good. He usually knows what'g going on, but as (basically) a politician, he can not tell the whole truth. So, here is my translation: Gold Finger: Expect a twenty-five year pause in living standards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted June 26, 2008 Report Share Posted June 26, 2008 King is good. He usually knows what'g going on, but as (basically) a politician, he can not tell the whole truth. So, here is my translation: Gold Finger: Expect a twenty-five year pause in living standards Indeed! Or even... Expect a one year decimation followed by a twenty-five year pause in living standards (if you're lucky) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted June 26, 2008 Author Report Share Posted June 26, 2008 Here is what BullionVault writes: http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/node/2501 Gold Prices jumped ahead of the Wall Street opening on Thursday after the Federal Reserve left US interest rates some 2.0% below the rate of inflation. Breaking $908 per ounce, Gold rose above last week's closing level as crude oil bounced and the US Dollar fell hard on the currency markets. The London Gold Fix had earlier recorded its best level since Monday morning at $892.50. "Given gold's sensitivity to inflation and the monetary response to inflation," says James Steel, metals analyst at banking giant HSBC, "we believe the Fed's statement is bullish for Gold Prices. "While accepting the uncertainty surrounding inflation, the Fed has yet to raise rates." EDITED to add: The Dollar fell this morning to a one-month low vs. the British Pound at $1.9840 after the UK's chief central banker, Mervyn King, hinted at interest-rate rises ahead. "Although inflation is rising now [at a 16-year record], we will ensure it falls back to target," he promised a parliamentary committee in London – yet the Bank of England has actually cut UK interest rates three times since Dec., however, hoping to defend the fast-falling housing market. Have I recently said that I think UK property is toast? Just look at my signature chart, and you know where this is heading for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gatesy Posted June 26, 2008 Report Share Posted June 26, 2008 Jeff Christian on FSN last week was saying that rollover of July contracts in PM's would rally prices up a little this week, for them to fall back on new short positions being opened next week. I'm considering closing a few breakeven longs at this stage to get in lower next week; any views? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted June 26, 2008 Report Share Posted June 26, 2008 Indeed! Or even... Expect a one year decimation followed by a twenty-five year pause in living standards (if you're lucky) It really is starting to look dire. Looks like the "post-developed" countries will have to pull themselves up by their bootstraps by producing for the East.. Jim Rogers made a good move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sossij Posted June 26, 2008 Report Share Posted June 26, 2008 The mother of all smackdowns once New York opens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted June 26, 2008 Report Share Posted June 26, 2008 Jeff Christian on FSN last week was saying that rollover of July contracts in PM's would rally prices up a little this week, for them to fall back on new short positions being opened next week. I'm considering closing a few breakeven longs at this stage to get in lower next week; any views? For what its worth... my own objective with investing (and especially so with volatile PMs) is based upon the addage "be right and sit tight" Both are hard to do, and only a few people can do both! So for gold, I think its going through the roof, and that will happen in next 6-12 months. So I'm long with a big investment, and I aint selling for some time yet! So far up 50% ...but as always, DYOR! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted June 26, 2008 Report Share Posted June 26, 2008 The mother of all smackdowns once New York opens? They'll try, they'll fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted June 26, 2008 Report Share Posted June 26, 2008 For what its worth... my own objective with investing (and especially so with volatile PMs) is based upon the addage "be right and sit tight" Both are hard to do, and only a few people can do both! So for gold, I think its going through the roof, and that will happen in next 6-12 months. So I'm long with a big investment, and I aint selling for some time yet! So far up 50% ...but as always, DYOR! .... and if I could add... KEEP BUYING! Still a steal at this price. 'cept I think it may take bit longer than that. Houston still has a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted June 26, 2008 Author Report Share Posted June 26, 2008 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm.../bcnking126.xml Mr King said that he had been shocked by the sharp change in the market's expectations on interest rates: "We have been somewhat puzzled that within a month the market was pricing in two to three cuts, and it suddenly swung round to an expectation of two to three rate rises." Maybe the market is finally starting to smell the inflation coffee? EDIT: But don't count on IR hikes in the UK really, because King goes on: "It certainly is not our job to avoid writing letters," he said. "It is neither our target nor sensible for the economy to bring inflation down for the sake of not writing letters." So, inflation it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted June 26, 2008 Report Share Posted June 26, 2008 IMHO gold will only take off when inflation psychology is rampant. For the average investor [who takes their cues from the mass media and is only aware of inflation as something dimly floating on the horizon] it will take a long period of disastrous economic news for inflation psychology [not inflation perception] to sink in and take hold. This will be the point where Western investors pile into gold pushing the price up. Psychology is the key here, and I imagine we could be a few years away from this. There most probably will be no sudden meltdown soon as the CBs have shown they are perfectly happy to keep inflating until the cows come home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted June 26, 2008 Author Report Share Posted June 26, 2008 Gold - Some Bullish Thoughts - with podcast http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=43261 Loads of charts ! (Thanks to Mr Holiday ) EDIT: EVERYONE should listen to this! Very good stuff. Regarding houses, if you think the US is bad, look at who's next (and much worse): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexreeve Posted June 26, 2008 Report Share Posted June 26, 2008 IMHO gold will only take off when inflation psychology is rampant. For the average investor [who takes their cues from the mass media and is only aware of inflation as something dimly floating on the horizon] it will take a long period of disastrous economic news for inflation psychology [not inflation perception] to take hold. This will be the point where Western investors pile into gold pushing the price up. Psychology is the key here, and I imagine we are years away from this. There will be no sudden meltdown soon as the CBs have shown they are perfectly happy to keep inflating until the cows come home. Seems to have happened very fast in Vietnam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted June 26, 2008 Report Share Posted June 26, 2008 Seems to have happened very fast in Vietnam. Yep... but I would imagine the mainstream US investor would consider Viet Nam a bit of a basket case country though.... and it "could not possibly happen here". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woody Posted June 26, 2008 Report Share Posted June 26, 2008 $910 is important resistance. But its trying... $910 gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Thyme Posted June 26, 2008 Report Share Posted June 26, 2008 The mother of all smackdowns once New York opens? Surprisingly not. CNBC reckoned there was a wave of autostop buying as soon as gold hit $900. It's looking ok at the mo . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexreeve Posted June 26, 2008 Report Share Posted June 26, 2008 Looks like it can't quite break 912. Looks like a shorting opportunity on a plate... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woody Posted June 26, 2008 Report Share Posted June 26, 2008 Surprisingly not. CNBC reckoned there was a wave of autostop buying as soon as gold hit $900. It's looking ok at the mo . . . CNBS is like a comedy today. The shock and horror at all this unjustified weakness in stocks. And quote of the day which says it all (re Golden Sacks downgraded GM & Citi): "And they did it just 3 days before the end of the quarter" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woody Posted June 26, 2008 Report Share Posted June 26, 2008 Looks like it can't quite break 912. Looks like a shorting opportunity on a plate... I've made a bit on the short side in G&S as the moves so far are incredibly smooth. $910 now providing a bit of support so another run to $912 is on the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexreeve Posted June 26, 2008 Report Share Posted June 26, 2008 Looks like it can't quite break 912. Looks like a shorting opportunity on a plate... And it immediately breaks 912 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted June 26, 2008 Report Share Posted June 26, 2008 So much for oil being in a bubble. Looks to be taking out that giant of the DOW, General Motors. Now at a 53 year low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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