GOLD

[Pluto]

Thank you. I agree with both of those responses. I just don't want to believe the second

 

I have thought about the second answer a lot and I can't see another way out. Let's assume they hyperinflate the USD and it collapses, then they usher in the amero. Who would want to accept it after being shafted with trillions of dollars? They would have to back the Amero with something tangible or force other nations to accept it. Both these options result in war.

 

During the second world war the US had most of the gold reserves, so Bretton Woods I was possible, it is a different story now. The US now has depleted gold reserves, no manufacturing base, and a soon collapsed financial system. The only industry the US the US has left is war, and it is a huge industry.

[Pluto]

I dont understand why Gold didn't go through the roof at this announcement.

 

I think the bullion market was expecting an emergency rate cut - which never happened - instead they decided to soak up 200BN in mortgage paper. This is like plugging the hull of the titanic with a band-aid.

[ae589]

I dont understand why Gold didn't go through the roof at this announcement.

 

Banks busy selling the only thing they can to plug the holes?

[tinecu]

I think the bullion market was expecting an emergency rate cut - which never happened - instead they decided to soak up 200BN in mortgage paper. This is like plugging the hull of the titanic with a band-aid.

 

Indeed, the PoG is probably waiting for something more overtly inflationary.

[ologhai]

“I’ve sold some jewellery that was just lying in the drawer at home….. towards a holiday in Spain”

 

There really is no hope for some people...

[Justin Thyme]

I dont understand why Gold didn't go through the roof at this announcement.

 

I'd hazard a guess that investors piled out of gold, oil etc to take advantage of the 2 hour-long free-for-all rally on the announcement. They'll be back into commodities tomorrow once they've made a few pips on whatever financial stock they've bought. Having said that, the Dow's already given back some of its gains.

[lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!)]

1) Yes, Gold is real money. That is why the central banks have it their vaults and not anything else.

2) Yes, the capitalist fiat monetary system is on the verge of collapse. Ultimately WW III with be the outcome, just like WWII was the outcome of Wiemar Republic.

 

not sure about the verge of collapse. I think at some point paper money will fail (it always does) and i am pretty sure this will happen within the next 20 years. I just think it will take a long while for the majority to realise the governments game. I think they will try and avoid hyperinflation and try and managed sustained inflation (say 10%pa) to inflate the problems away. Managing this right is going to be a problem, and if they get this wrong hyperinflation could result quite quickly.

 

Also some other countries (ones with savings) could decide they have had enough and start another currency backed with something maybe Islamic Dinar, China (Silver) .

[CIGA]

I think the bullion market was expecting an emergency rate cut - which never happened - instead they decided to soak up 200BN in mortgage paper. This is like plugging the hull of the titanic with a band-aid.

 

Unfortunatley it is a plaster which will be ripped off after 28 days, a 28 day loan using turd as security.

 

Listening to Jim Pulava Sturday broadcast this week, his main theme this year has been his oreo theory.

basically the top of the cookie is current volatile period which will last through the first quarter, as we get to the 2nd and third quarter we get the smooth creamy filling and end the year with the second part of the cookie.

 

in finance this transalates as stock markets volatile, commodities and real assets soak up inflation(1st quarter), central banks do everything they can to save the stock markets and make the ecnomomy seem sound prior to the november elections in the US, investors move back to stocks and commodities/gold/silver pull back (2nd/3rd quarter), inflation cannot be hidden and rears it's ugly head, interet rates must rise, commodities gold/silver are back in the frame (final quarter).

 

If correct, the sell in may and and go away theory may be the right course of action, sell at around 1050 gold or in april/may and wait for a pullback then buy back. He does not recommend anyone selling their holdings if they are already in, he did say newcommers might want to wait for the correction.

 

I am very tempted to maybe take some money off the table in Q2 to add again later but will have to decide nearer the time.

 

[Pluto]

Unfortunatley it is a plaster which will be ripped off after 28 days, a 28 day loan using turd as security.

 

Listening to Jim Pulava Sturday broadcast this week, his main theme this year has been his oreo theory.

basically the top of the cookie is current volatile period which will last through the first quarter, as we get to the 2nd and third quarter we get the smooth creamy filling and end the year with the second part of the cookie.

 

in finance this transalates as stock markets volatile, commodities and real assets soak up inflation(1st quarter), central banks do everything they can to save the stock markets and make the ecnomomy seem sound prior to the november elections in the US, investors move back to stocks and commodities/gold/silver pull back (2nd/3rd quarter), inflation cannot be hidden and rears it's ugly head, interet rates must rise, commodities gold/silver are back in the frame (final quarter).

 

If correct, the sell in may and and go away theory may be the right course of action, sell at around 1050 gold or in april/may and wait for a pullback then buy back. He does not recommend anyone selling their holdings if they are already in, he did say newcommers might want to wait for the correction.

 

I am very tempted to maybe take some money off the table in Q2 to add again later but will have to decide nearer the time.

 

 

 

The equity market likes it though. A perfect opportunity to offload those stocks to the retail guy thinking he's in at the bottom just as the market turns. They will be punished as the Dow makes another leg down. As you said, a short term solution to a long term problem. How many of these short term solutions are we going to get? Anyway, the masses will be happy in the US come May when they get their free money to spend in Wall Mart; of course by then it will probably take the whole check just to gas up their cars so they can get there.

[Pluto]

Hedge Fund resorts to begging. As Buffet has said many times: "hedge funds are weapons of financial mass destruction".

 

These should be allowed to fail and the whole culture that revolves them should be exterminated as they cause misery and grief in the real economy.

 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2008/mar/11/investmentfunds

 

Run by the US buyout firm Carlyle Group, it is the latest fund to be hit by a stampede of panicked lending banks, determined to call in their loans as certain asset markets fall. Earlier this month, the London-based Peloton collapsed under a wave of bank pressure.

[lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!)]

another reason to invest in gold

 

 

Brian Bloom

 

I registered last year to receive the novel when it is published

[HPCsoYESTERDAY]

In my very brief time as a buyer of gold, I have noticed that coins are selling for a premium on ebay compared to what some of the dealers are charging. Whilst, my knowledge of the Au mineral is very limited, I do understand about the dynamics of trading goods especially on eBay, and this acceptance of paying slightly over the odds spells one thing to me - a Strong Demand.

 

sorry for being a bit late to the party

[wren]

I just posted this at the old gold thread (it probably won't appear as I'm under moderation).

We decided to move the Gold thread to the metals section because we are keen to develop other areas of the forum and as it is a metal although a pretty special one we have linked it as a pinned topic at the top of the main discussion on house prices.

(Maybe it's an oversight but I do not see it pinned in the main forum.)

 

The new gold thread is already 60 pages long. DrBubb is happy to have us at his site.

 

The gold thread is dead, long live the gold thread!

[ConvertedGoldBug]

Anyone got any comments on my investment portfolio?

 

Sorry, I know this is a Gold thread, but seeing as we've had several pages talking about Water (and seeing as my portfolio is mostly precious metals related), I'd just like some second opinions when taking current the economic climate into consideration as well... and maybe give people something new to discuss again for a while

 

65% - Precious Metal ETFs (approx 40% gold, 30% silver, 20% platinum, 10% palladium)

15% - Gold / precious metal equities (ML Gold & General + Ruffer Baker Steel Gold funds)

10% - Agricultural commodities (corn, wheat etc.)

5% - Agricultural equities (via the Eclectica "Agriculture" fund)

5% - Junior Oils fund

 

(I'm not really a dabbler in individual stocks, so wouldn't know what specific companies to buy shares in, therefore am sticking to funds in sectors I'm interested in)

 

Basically, I'm wondering if there's some investments that it might be better holding off from investing, or switching, etc.

 

For example, is it worth keeping the Junior Oils now, or waiting to see how the recession pans out (oil might fall), and then going back in later?

 

Is "physical" precious metals better than mining companies at the moment? Just done a comparison of these mining funds with the DJIA index, and they're going up while the DOW is going down, but presumably they'd fall heavily in a severe crash? Or is a "crash" different to a "downturn"? i.e. if the DOW continued steadily downwards, could the mining funds still go steadily upwards?

 

And the agricultural aspect of my portfolio? It's actually my second favourite sector after the precious metals, so I'd be quite inclined to up my percentage in this area in favour of something else... maybe lose the Platinum/Palladium aspect of the PM's, and split that between a bit more Gold and some more Agriculture commodites? How would Pt/Pd fair up in a recession, seeing as they're more industrial metals?

 

Any comments welcome... and sorry, at the moment still haven't got round to buying any Physical Gold or Silver (although the ETFs claim they are backed by physical, for what it's worth). These investments represent my ISA and SIPP, so don't want to (or can't) cash them in to buy physical... that would be from new money only.

[Steve Netwriter]

another reason to invest in gold

 

 

Brian Bloom

 

I registered last year to receive the novel when it is published

 

What a brilliant article. Anyone that can get gold and global cooling in the same article deserves a pat on the back

[Steve Netwriter]

Anyone got any comments on my investment portfolio?

 

65% - Precious Metal ETFs (approx 40% gold, 30% silver, 20% platinum, 10% palladium)

15% - Gold / precious metal equities (ML Gold & General + Ruffer Baker Steel Gold funds)

10% - Agricultural commodities (corn, wheat etc.)

5% - Agricultural equities (via the Eclectica "Agriculture" fund)

5% - Junior Oils fund

 

Any comments welcome... and sorry, at the moment still haven't got round to buying any Physical Gold or Silver (although the ETFs claim they are backed by physical, for what it's worth). These investments represent my ISA and SIPP, so don't want to (or can't) cash them in to buy physical... that would be from new money only.

 

My answer should be obvious

IMO you need to increase you real allocated physical gold/silver.

The absolute minimum at times like this should be 20%.

 

I hope the ETFs you've chosen are those most likely to actually have some metal backing them.

I'm with Jim on this. If you buy the real stuff you take some of the gold/silver away from the market you stop them manipulating it.

They can't short a coin in your hand

[wren]

In my very brief time as a buyer of gold, I have noticed that coins are selling for a premium on ebay compared to what some of the dealers are charging. Whilst, my knowledge of the Au mineral is very limited, I do understand about the dynamics of trading goods especially on eBay, and this acceptance of paying slightly over the odds spells one thing to me - a Strong Demand.

 

sorry for being a bit late to the party

Interesting to hear that. An earlier post gave a BBC video about people in Rudley selling their old gold to the local jewellers.

 

This article from Reuters yesterday says that Goldcorp Inc is treating $1000 gold as a floor price for its future budgeting.

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/GlobalMinin...036295020080310

 

Personally I think $1000 gold is fair price at most, possibly less. No way is the price in bubble territory IMHO. But I'm content for the moment to see the mainstream media mushroom manage the public.

[ConvertedGoldBug]

I hope the ETFs you've chosen are those most likely to actually have some metal backing them.

I'm with Jim on this. If you buy the real stuff you take some of the gold/silver away from the market you stop them manipulating it.

They can't short a coin in your hand

 

They're EFT Securities' "Physical Precious Metals"... "Physical Gold"... "Physical Silver"

 

e.g. "...backed by physical allocated metal held by the Custodian (HSBC Bank USA N.A.). All physical metals held with HSBC conform to the London Platinum Palladium Market’s (LPPM) and the London Bullion Market Association’s (LBMA) rules for Good Delivery."

 

And recommended by financial publications (e.g. MoneyWeek)... who make a point of saying to only use the ones backed by physical.

 

Other than trusting them, don't see what else I can do with my ISA and pension funds.

 

And besides, another thing I've always wondered, re: your comment about "shorting a coin"... surely the price will go up or down for the physical coin the same as the ETF... so even if they short my coin, it's value can still go down?

[Pluto]

They're EFT Securities' "Physical Precious Metals"... "Physical Gold"... "Physical Silver"

 

e.g. "...backed by physical allocated metal held by the Custodian (HSBC Bank USA N.A.). All physical metals held with HSBC conform to the London Platinum Palladium Market’s (LPPM) and the London Bullion Market Association’s (LBMA) rules for Good Delivery."

 

And recommended by financial publications (e.g. MoneyWeek)... who make a point of saying to only use the ones backed by physical.

 

Other than trusting them, don't see what else I can do with my ISA and pension funds.

 

And besides, another thing I've always wondered, re: your comment about "shorting a coin"... surely the price will go up or down for the physical coin the same as the ETF... so even if they short my coin, it's value can still go down?

 

It doesn't matter if the ETFs has gold or doesn't, whether it leases it out or not, or anything else really. The important question you have to ask yourself is why do I want to buy gold? If your answer is you are predicting a meltdown in the financial system, then you should stay clear of anyone's promise to give you something in the future - which ETFs are - and banks for that matter. If, on the other hand you think Gold is just going up in price because of speculation, and eventually all will be well and Gold will go down in value, then you can stick to EFTs etc.

However, if you are seriously worried about the state of the world's financial system, your only protection is physical Gold in your possession or with someone you trust explicitly.

 

I know this can be inconvenient, but the system is designed to hoard all your lolly into bankers' accounts. You have to exit this system.

[pmaupoil]

Hello everyone I am now Casimir (pmaupoil from HPC). I am just back from my holidays and I just cannot believe how big is the new thread already! I hope there will be a few non gold bugs balancing the debate, after reading many pages I have not seen any unfortunately.

I was not contributing much due to my lack of economics knowledge but I really enjoyed reading the experts' comments and I hope this will continue here. I have all of my savings in BV but I am planning very soon to put 10% in silver and subsequently my monthly savings in it.

[wren]

Hello everyone I am now Casimir (pmaupoil from HPC). I am just back from my holidays and I just cannot believe how big is the new thread already! I hope there will be a few non gold bugs balancing the debate, after reading many pages I have not seen any unfortunately.

I was not contributing much due to my lack of economics knowledge but I really enjoyed reading the experts' comments and I hope this will continue here. I have all of my savings in BV but I am planning very soon to put 10% in silver and subsequently my monthly savings in it.

Welcome, Casimir, nice to have you over here.

 

It's true that there are no anti-gold posts so far. But this site is for investors, not all of whom are "goldbugs" I suspect, and I hope that from within the site we will muster up bearish views on gold etc. as appropriate. (Right now a lot of the professional gold commentators sound short-term bearish on gold and even more so silver.)

 

I don't miss the petty, trolling, anti-gold posts over there TBH, but those backed with some sort of argument are important.

[azazel]

Hello everyone I am now Casimir (pmaupoil from HPC). I am just back from my holidays and I just cannot believe how big is the new thread already! I hope there will be a few non gold bugs balancing the debate, after reading many pages I have not seen any unfortunately.

I was not contributing much due to my lack of economics knowledge but I really enjoyed reading the experts' comments and I hope this will continue here. I have all of my savings in BV but I am planning very soon to put 10% in silver and subsequently my monthly savings in it.

 

Hello and welcome. What silver are you planning to acquire?

[Errol]

Gold in your possession or with someone you trust explicitly.

 

Trust no one.

[azazel]

Welcome, Casimir, nice to have you over.

(Right now a lot of the professional gold commentators sound short-term bearish on gold and even more so silver.)

 

I don't miss the petty, trolling, anti-gold posts over there TBH, but those backed with some sort of argument are important.

 

 

 

What do you think? The 1 year graph on BV GBP looks to me like the price will be up to a peak by the end of this week or the beginning of next week, if the pattern remains the same as it has over the last 10 weeks.

 

http://www.bullionvault.com/gold-price-chart.do

[narco]

Something to consider for those who think gold is in a bubble right now.........

 

Gold 1980 was $850 while US money supply was $1.5 Trillion

 

Gold 2008 is $970 and the US money supply is $12 Trillion

 

***edit***

 

Actually... M3 is probably more like $15 Trillion dollars now and rising.