GOLD

[warpig]

Yes I have some, they are tiny and from memory they are way smaller than a five pence piece.

 

Just amusing myself at CoinInvestDirect and notice the 1/20th of oz coins currently selling for just over £50. Anyone have one of these? They must be incy-wincy! I'd be scared of losing down the back of the sofa. Are they too small ever to be realistically used as coinage?

[Schaublin]

Just amusing myself at CoinInvestDirect and notice the 1/20th of oz coins currently selling for just over £50. Anyone have one of these? They must be incy-wincy! I'd be scared of losing down the back of the sofa. Are they too small ever to be realistically used as coinage?

 

I bought a few 1 gram ingots on a whim - they are small but perfectly formed

[ologhai]

I get sterling gold data from 24hgold.com

 

http://www.24hgold.com/english/interactive...lecom=valelivre

 

However, it only provides 200dma as a line on a chart and does not give a figure for 200dma which is therefore open to error from reading the chart and trying to estimate the 200dma.

 

Ologhai,

 

Where do you get your sterling gold 200dma figures from?

 

I don't -- I work it out (or, rather, the spreadsheet does) from the raw gold-price data. I've set the spreadsheet up to generate (and display as charts) moving averages, the PoG/200DMA ratio and Bollinger Bands, both for USD and GBP (although I never got around to doing it for EUR -- although in theory I could because I do paste the EUR PoG into the spreadsheet as well).

 

I get my raw data (for gold and silver) from the London Bullion Market Association website.

 

If you use a spreadsheet and you want a few tips for formulae, let me know.

[dst]

 

From a couple of days ago - I don't think it has been posted before, nice gold article from iTulip:

 

Before the FIRE Gold Update: Is $1,237 the new $720? - Eric Janszen

 

iTulip Link

 

 

“I’m new here and missed iTulip’s arguments about gold over the previous nine years. Too late to buy gold now?”

 

We've heard this question regularly since 2001, when gold traded at $400, $600, $800, $1000 and expect we'll keep hearing it asked for the next several years.

 

The question is itself problematic. Buying gold is not like buy stock in Apple Computer, or even like buying a commodity like oil or copper.

 

A rising stock price reflects the improving earnings prospects of a firm. A rising commodity price reflects either declining commodity supply relative to demand, or declining demand for the currency in which that commodity is traded relative to the supply of that currency, or both. Gold is more complex because it additionally acts as a currency itself (See The Fourth Currency) because it is the only commodity held by central banks. For this reason gold acts as wealth insurance, specifically hedging the impact of excessive government indebtedness on the purchasing power of financial assets. The question “Is it too late to buy gold” is like asking whether it’s too late to insure one’s home against fire. Before the FIRE, no.

[Errol]

With Local Gold Inventories Depleted, Panicking German Dealers Stage Run On Krugerrands

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/local-gol...run-krugerrands

 

Panicking German dealers and banks have been desperate to get their hands on krugerrands, the world's most popular gold coin.

 

"We have some extraordinary sales to German customers," says Deborah Thomson, the Rand treasurer. The refinery, which usually sells 2,000 coins to each customer at a time, says that last week it received an order from one German bank for 30,000 coins. Another bank requested 15,000 coins.

 

[DoctorSolar]

If we do see the projected $150-200 in the coming week(s) here is something for the non-trader, core holders here to bear in mind

 

http://www.caseyresearch.com/editorial/339...f=GLD178ED0510A

 

I think the rise in price is sending us a message. And this is what I think gold is saying...

 

I won’t always be this cheap. If you don’t buy me soon, you may regret it. I may get less expensive in the short term, but don’t mistake that to mean I’m losing value or that everything is fine with your paper currencies or your economic future. What you’ve done to your fiat currencies will hurt you. What is coming to the price of things will overwhelm you. What the government has debased will haunt you. I’m here to protect your finances. I may be the only thing that can really do that.

 

You can be cautious about the price, but don’t be short-sighted about the purpose. Are you sure you own enough of me?

[azazel]

gold is at $1234.5

 

next time it will be $12345.6?

[warpig]

I don't understand why people think gold is going down, it is utterly beyond me... countries are going bankrupt, their respective currencies are in question and everyone wants to sell their gold, WTF! There seems to be a division forming here, where everyone here saw the crisis coming but some still have no sense of timing... BTW gold is retracing its footsteps already tonight!

[DoctorSolar]

I don't understand why people think gold is going down, it is utterly beyond me... countries are going bankrupt, their respective currencies are in question and everyone wants to sell their gold, WTF! There seems to be a division forming here, where everyone here saw the crisis coming but some still have no sense of timing... BTW gold is retracing its footsteps already tonight!

 

Some folks want to try and play the waves with one of the few things that can provide protection. Trying to get rich while the world blows up. Risking holding paper and being way out of position. Personally I think that is totally nuts. But hey ho that's for them to decide. The argument against doing so is well voiced here so even the newbie lurkers will have seen both sides.

[Schaublin]

Some folks want to try and play the waves with one of the few things that can provide protection. Trying to get rich while the world blows up. Risking holding paper and being way out of position. Personally I think that is totally nuts. But hey ho that's for them to decide. The argument against doing so is well voiced here so even the newbie lurkers will have seen both sides.

 

I think the allure of a quick paper profit can be strong - but if thought through, how can that profit be stored? Professional and semi-professional traders here believe they can anticipate movements and make a profit - some (lucky) will and some (unlucky) will not but those who just hold will preserve their purchasing power - and will probably increase it into the future - they will also not have the extreme stress associated with high stakes gambling - although some people are born gamblers and love it.

[warpig]

Good point, well made.

 

It is so easy to get caught up with the `next train of thought`, that it's healthy to remind ourselves why we have our wealth stored in gold in the first place.

 

I think the allure of a quick paper profit can be strong - but if thought through, how can that profit be stored?

[Schaublin]

Someone knows something in Asia - as I write, gold up GBP 25/ oz to GBP 866

 

What did cgnao say about 900 GBP?

[Jake]

Someone knows something in Asia - as I write, gold up GBP 25/ oz to GBP 866

It's only me, Schlaubs.

[Happy Nihilist]

 

 

Meanwhile, in USD, Gold is trading below its recent high of 1250 ... divergence? Maybe a little too soon to say for sure.

 

 

[romans holiday]

EURO/ USD 1.22

[Happy Nihilist]

EURO/ USD 1.22

 

L'Europfff

 

 

The thing is though, the Euro has traded below 1.00 before. It's not as if we are making new all time lows. What is dramatic however is how quickly this is all unwinding. 1.50 to 1.22 in just under 6 months!

 

Also, interesting that the top in the Euro should coincide with the election of Herman van Rompuy as European president. Some classic socionomics in action

 

 

 

 

[ologhai]

I think the allure of a quick paper profit can be strong - but if thought through, how can that profit be stored? Professional and semi-professional traders here believe they can anticipate movements and make a profit - some (lucky) will and some (unlucky) will not but those who just hold will preserve their purchasing power - and will probably increase it into the future - they will also not have the extreme stress associated with high stakes gambling - although some people are born gamblers and love it.

 

I don't know why those of you with a 'hold-only' approach to gold feel the need to keep taking pot-shots at the others, sometimes in a not-so-pleasant way.

 

There is a rationale behind selling and re-buying gold, not to take a 'quick paper profit', but to try to end up with more gold, i.e. trying to make our money go that bit further.

 

Both parties (for the most part I think) want to protect their money from the devaluation of fiat -- to 'preserve their purchasing power' -- so we're not so different. It's not like one party is especially noble and upstanding, while the others are low-lives just in it for a quick buck.

 

Sometimes, people who trade some of their gold will lose out due to their action, but sometimes, those who hold-only will lose by their inaction. So what? Don't be so insecure that you have to keep trying to convert everyone to The Right Way. Speaking for myself, if I wanted that kind of thing, I'd go to church!

 

I don't see why this artificial division between people who are MUCH more similar than they are different should keep coming up.

[Jake]

No pot shots but here is Alf Field's parthian shot.

 

 

Why quit writing these reports? I have noticed from the emails that I receive that many people are using these reports to guide their trading activities in gold. I have had no objection to this in the past, but feel that it would be foolish to trade gold in the circumstances of the Big Kahuna crisis that we are living though at the moment. It has become a question of individual financial survival in an environment where things are happening more rapidly and with increasing violence. I feel very strongly that it is time to quietly hold onto one’s gold insurance and not attempt to trade it. I do not wish to provide interim levels that may cause people to be encouraged to trade their gold to skim a few extra fiat dollars or other currencies, but lose their gold as a result.

 

So it is Good Bye, Good Luck and God Bless.

 

Alf Field

25 November 2008

[romans holiday]

L'Europfff

 

 

The thing is though, the Euro has traded below 1.00 before. It's not as if we are making new all time lows. What is dramatic however is how quickly this is all unwinding. 1.50 to 1.22 in just under 6 months!

 

Also, interesting that the top in the Euro should coincide with the election of Herman van Rompuy as European president. Some classic socionomics in action

Indeedy... a glitch in photobucket preventing me from posting the chart. Dollar/ euro has retraced back to the levels seen in extremis on the deleveraging bout of '08... and to levels seen earlier before it got so "over-valued". I wonder how long it will be before the commodity currencies follow suit.

[romans holiday]

No pot shots but here is Alf Field's parthian shot.

 

 

Why quit writing these reports? I have noticed from the emails that I receive that many people are using these reports to guide their trading activities in gold. I have had no objection to this in the past, but feel that it would be foolish to trade gold in the circumstances of the Big Kahuna crisis that we are living though at the moment. It has become a question of individual financial survival in an environment where things are happening more rapidly and with increasing violence. I feel very strongly that it is time to quietly hold onto one’s gold insurance and not attempt to trade it. I do not wish to provide interim levels that may cause people to be encouraged to trade their gold to skim a few extra fiat dollars or other currencies, but lose their gold as a result.

 

So it is Good Bye, Good Luck and God Bless.

 

Alf Field

25 November 2008

How's this for a moderate position between the trading instinct and the gold bug one? Gold to hold and silver to trade!! Simples.

 

Of course, you'd have to be trading silver for dollars, and looking for dollar profits... in order to hedge against lower prices in your core position of gold.

[DoctorSolar]

I don't know why those of you with a 'hold-only' approach to gold feel the need to keep taking pot-shots at the others, sometimes in a not-so-pleasant way.

 

It wasn't so long ago that us with the hold-only approach were meant to be "clawing at the sky" ... so the pot shots are flying in both directions.

 

In any case all of that is a distraction. No pot shots from me just a clear setting out of my approach and why I think those folk who don't have the time to monitor the markets will find it useful. Along with the FACT that when trading you may end up with LESS metal than you started. If folks want to trade fine by me it just don't think its for everyone thats all.

[Jake]

How's this for moderating between the trading instinct and the gold bug one? Gold to hold, silver to trade!! Simples.

 

Of course, you'd have to be trading silver for dollars, and looking for dollar profits... in order to hedge against lower prices in your core position of gold.

But didn't you get out at 17.90 and now it is 19.19, meanwhile the price of gold has raced along...am I not getting it? Presumably you are waiting for cheaper gold in dollars?

[aardvark]

I don't understand why people think gold is going down, it is utterly beyond me... countries are going bankrupt, their respective currencies are in question and everyone wants to sell their gold, WTF! There seems to be a division forming here, where everyone here saw the crisis coming but some still have no sense of timing... BTW gold is retracing its footsteps already tonight!

 

me neither - people seem to want to call a top in gold simply because its more expensive than before, and it surely can't go up any more?!?!?! well, people have been saying that for last 10 years and the world economy is in worse and worse shape everyday.

whats important to most of us is what happens to the pound and i don't see a strong pound for a looooong time, not with our debt.

a couple of people keep asking me when will i sell my gold? and all i say is definitely not this year.

so i'll be holding i think

[warpig]

I'd like an opportunity to reply to this.

 

The generally accepted "best practice" echoed on the gold threads 12+ months ago, was don't trade your gold, it isn't necessary. This was illustrated by various metaphores such as, "why would you try and trade an insurance policy." I am concerned new members haven't read the older gold threads and may be lead to be believe trading gold is the generally accepted norm and it isn't. To some degree the `goldbugs` have lost their voice on this thread and sometimes there is post after post of trading talk and it would be quite easy for new members to draw an unbalanced conclusion. There are many of us who are still staunch believers that trading gold is akin to `picking up pennies in front of a steam roller` and you are very likely to end up with far fewer ounces trying to trade this volatility. This rationale is not so rational IMO, especially as we enter the final phase of this crisis.

 

I have only got as far as I have by taking the advice of more established investors, reiterating their advice is not taking `a pot shot`, it's merely voicing the other side of the argument which is often drowned out by trading chatter. Do not take it personally, it isn't aimed at you, it's aimed at new members only and making sure they don't feel pressured in to taking a trade approach, which is high risk, with little to no reward.

 

I don't know why those of you with a 'hold-only' approach to gold feel the need to keep taking pot-shots at the others, sometimes in a not-so-pleasant way.

 

There is a rationale behind selling and re-buying gold, not to take a 'quick paper profit', but to try to end up with more gold, i.e. trying to make our money go that bit further.

 

Both parties (for the most part I think) want to protect their money from the devaluation of fiat -- to 'preserve their purchasing power' -- so we're not so different. It's not like one party is especially noble and upstanding, while the others are low-lives just in it for a quick buck.

 

Sometimes, people who trade some of their gold will lose out due to their action, but sometimes, those who hold-only will lose by their inaction. So what? Don't be so insecure that you have to keep trying to convert everyone to The Right Way. Speaking for myself, if I wanted that kind of thing, I'd go to church!

 

I don't see why this artificial division between people who are MUCH more similar than they are different should keep coming up.

[romans holiday]

But didn't you get out at 17.90 and now it is 19.19, meanwhile the price of gold has raced along...am I not getting it? Presumably you are waiting for cheaper gold in dollars?

You're not getting it Jake.

 

When silver was low, I had both a core position in both gold and silver. With the risk of deleveraging ahead [which we're seeing now] I decided silver was too risky and moved most of it to gold, so all core bullion is only in gold now.

 

But then gold should be hedged with a dollar position [which has always been maintained] in case we see super-deleveraging where everything slides including gold. But this dollar position can also be traded conservatively against silver when the risk trade in the market is on and deleveragng looks unlikely. The silver I still had was thus traded, going from 15 odd and sold for dollar at 17.90. As I said conservatively; the aim is not to accumulate silver here [that pertains to gold] but to increase and maintain your dollar hedge by dipping in and out of silver. I'll be happy with a gain of 15-20% each time, but if we get the big one [with silver recovering afterwards] I could double my dollar hedge. Even a 15% profit though is a good one when you consider that asset prices are deflating. In real terms [against assets] your profit will be even greater. Too many investors can not see that money illusion cuts both ways. They think they see the illusion with their inflation expectations, and hence seek large [and very risky] nominal gains.

 

That silver has continued up well past 17.90 doesn't really matter because my bullion position is in gold, which picks up these gains and then holds on to gains better than silver. I expect silver to come back below 17.90. If it doesn't and breaks out to a new high, neither does this really matter. It should remain volatile and dip back to near what I sold it for. Once again buy on dip and sell on a modest gain, aim being to increase the dollar hedge.

 

I reckon silver looks vulnerable here. I'm now only in gold and dollars. Looking to swap dollars for silver at a lower price, but only for a short term trade.