GOLD

[ologhai]

The generally accepted "best practice" echoed on the gold threads 12+ months ago, was don't trade your gold, it isn't necessary. This was illustrated by various metaphores such as, "why would you try and trade an insurance policy." I am concerned new members haven't read the older gold threads and may be lead to be believe trading gold is the generally accepted norm and it isn't. To some degree the `goldbugs` have lost their voice on this thread and sometimes there is post after post of trading talk and it would be quite easy for new members to draw an unbalanced conclusion. There are many of us who are still staunch believers that trading gold is akin to `picking up pennies in front of a steam roller` and you are very likely to end up with far fewer ounces trying to trade this volatility. This rationale is not so rational IMO, especially as we enter the final phase of this crisis.

 

In combination, our posts have hopefully straightened out much of the possibility of misleading any 'newcomers' and have summarised the two 'sides'!

 

Incidentally, perhaps we get more 'trader' chatter because there's the potential for them to have more to discuss? By definition, there aren't multiple approaches to choosing not to sell and re-buy gold? (I don't know whether you'd agree.)

 

Perhaps this leaves the 'holders' less to say, making more room for them spend time alleging that the 'traders' are fools!

[warpig]

Any such comment is probably meant with the best intention, someone has to stop you `crazy traders` from trading one trade too far!

 

If the bugs were confident everyone had trawled through the older threads (HPC + GEI) then the trader V bug discussions wouldn't be necessary. The problem is, I doubt many have read all of the posts here let alone HPC and there's a lot of valuable information/advice on the early threads. Incidentally, I've read every single post...

 

One general point I'd like to make, the growing perception that the next `event` will be a deleveraging avalanche, similar if not worse than 2008 will take gold with it, I think is mis-founded. To quote an old adage, "History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme." I have bet a lot of money this isn't going to happen, it would be healthier if people don't present this as a certainty, because it certainly isn't.

 

In combination, our posts have hopefully straightened out much of the possibility of misleading any 'newcomers' and have summarised the two 'sides'!

 

Incidentally, perhaps we get more 'trader' chatter because there's the potential for them to have more to discuss? By definition, there aren't multiple approaches to choosing not to sell and re-buy gold? (I don't know whether you'd agree.)

 

Perhaps this leaves the 'holders' less to say, making more room for them spend time alleging that the 'traders' are fools!

[romans holiday]

One general point I'd like to make, the growing perception that the next `event` will be a deleveraging avalanche, similar if not worse than 2008 will take gold with it, I think is mis-founded. To quote an old adage, "History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme." I have bet a lot of money this isn't going to happen, it would be healthier if people don't present this as a certainty, because it certainly isn't.

Why bet for or against it? There is obviously a real risk that deleveraging will happen. There is obviously also no absolute certainty that it will happen. Just as there is no certainty that it will not. There is no certainty period.

 

The point is to be hedged in case it does happen.

 

But then if it did happen and gold/ silver quickly recovered like last time, should that really bother the buy and hold camp [which I have a foot in btw]?

 

PS. I don't think "newbies/ lurkers" are as impressionable as you think. We're all big boys who should be doing our own due diligence and making our own decisions. It is healthy to have the full spectrum when making investment/ disinvestment decisions.

[shawth]

I don't -- I work it out (or, rather, the spreadsheet does) from the raw gold-price data. I've set the spreadsheet up to generate (and display as charts) moving averages, the PoG/200DMA ratio and Bollinger Bands, both for USD and GBP (although I never got around to doing it for EUR -- although in theory I could because I do paste the EUR PoG into the spreadsheet as well).

 

I get my raw data (for gold and silver) from the London Bullion Market Association website.

 

If you use a spreadsheet and you want a few tips for formulae, let me know.

 

Thanks Ologhai.

 

Could you email a copy of your spreadsheet to me?

 

My address is thomas.e.shaw@hotmail.co.uk

 

Thanks.

[warpig]

Deleveraging will happen (fact), but physical gold is going to become very expensive when the next unhandled event happens, nothing is going to stop that.

 

If there's one thing I'm good at in life it's being intuitive, IMO I don't need to be hedged, all I need is good timing.

 

Why bet for or against it? There is obviously a very real risk that deleveraging will happen. There is obviously also no absolute certainty that it will happen. Just as there is no certainty that it will not. There is no certainty period.

 

The point is to be hedged in case it does happen.

[warpig]

It's not that new-comers are impressionable, the problem is time is of the essence. Whilst someone might takes 4-6 months to be fully read up on the subject, familiarising themselves with seasonal swings, historical x:gold ratios, it would be very easy to make the wrong decisions. Going back a few years, I had to decide who's opinions I trusted, so I could gain exposure to gold before I had the full compliment of skills to draw my own conclusions. People like G0ldfinger and CGNAO were instrumental in this process. For me at least, it's important this information continues to be passed on.

 

PS. I don't think "newbies/ lurkers" are as impressionable as you think. We're all big boys who should be doing our own due diligence and making our own decisions. It is healthy to have the full spectrum when making investment/ disinvestment decisions.

[G0ldfinger]

It wasn't so long ago that us with the hold-only approach were meant to be "clawing at the sky" ...

Oh, uh, I remember!

[nobla]

CID out of Victoria and George sovs now

[azazel]

It's not that new-comers are impressionable, the problem is time is of the essence. Whilst someone might takes 4-6 months to be fully read up on the subject, familiarising themselves with seasonal swings, historical x:gold ratios, it would be very easy to make the wrong decisions. Going back a few years, I had to decide who's opinions I trusted, so I could gain exposure to gold before I had the full compliment of skills to draw my own conclusions. People like G0ldfinger and CGNAO were instrumental in this process. For me at least, it's important this information continues to be passed on.

 

Yes, I will second that.

 

I can also admit that the buy and hold strategy is the least stressful, and the most profitable. I sold some gold at £24,150 hoping for a drop in prices so as to increase grams and so far it has failed badly! Fortunatly it was only a relatively small amount of my overal stash. Im still confident that gold will fall back over the summer but it hasnt finished going up yet.

 

 

[signofthetimes]

CID out of Victoria and George sovs now

 

kind of expected a run following the cgt scare

 

I'm in 2 minds about swapping my non-brit stuff but knowing my luck they'll introduce full cgt on all gold bullion

[lupercal]

May explain some of the shorts

 

http://www.business24-7.ae/companies-marke...-05-18-1.245539

 

Close on the heels of the Damas debacle that left the Abdullah brothers, who once owned the largest jewellery group in the region, at the receiving end, a few other wholesalers, including 'one of the largest', is said to be in financial crisis.

 

The unabated upward streak in gold price that commenced sometime in April last year from the upwards of $850 per ounce and touched an all-time high of $1,250 on May 14, has denied many a wholesaler the opportunity to 'fix' their open position on price with their lending banks.

 

"This has landed these wholesalers in 'huge losses' as they have already sold the borrowed gold to their retail customers at lower prices, but failed to settle the gold loan with their banks at that time," a gold analyst explained.

 

The wholesalers generally borrow gold from their banks at 'unfix' – without assigning any price then – sell it to their retail clients. The wholesalers who go short on the gold usually wait for an opportune time of 'correction' to fix the price and settle the gold loan with their banks. During this period, they keep paying margins to the bank to offset any rise in price during this period.

 

But the last year handed out a 'double whammy' to some of the aggressive wholesalers who chose to make a quick buck by selling gold to their clients and diverting these funds to real estate during the property boom.

 

In their good early days, they were able to settle the loan with their banks at lower prices offered by price corrections which were amply available. Since a gold loan comes at very attractive interest rate, which is benchmarked against Libor, the wholesalers enjoyed a rather good time.

 

With the gold price making a steady rise, the wholesalers hardly got an opportunity to fix their position, resulting in the banks forcing them to pay the huge margins to make good the price differential. To make matters worse, while some banks downsized the gold loan facility, a few banks even called back the facility with some wholesalers.

 

The big blow came from the crash in real estate where some of the leading wholesalers have built up big positions. Sources said some leading names in the gold business are frantically trying to sell off their property assets.

[ologhai]

Thanks Ologhai.

 

Could you email a copy of your spreadsheet to me?

 

My address is thomas.e.shaw@hotmail.co.uk

 

Thanks.

 

I'd rather not do that as the spreadsheet contains quite a bit of personal information in addition to just raw data and formulae.

 

I could come up with a new spreadsheet containing just the non-personal bits, but that would take a little time -- time that I don't have at the moment.

 

Alternatively, if there are specific questions you have on how to calculate particular things, I could just field those questions?

[LauraB]

Looks like the drop is on its way. The Squid doing its shake-out 'work'?

 

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/goldman-r...ls-gold-clients

 

A month ago we posted an article which we titled: "Goldman Again Buying Gold, Selling Copper As It Lowers Gold Price Forecast, Boosts Copper" in which we speculated, as the title suggests, that since Goldman had turned bearish on gold, we were expecting gold price to jump as Goldman was once again implicitly buying the precious metal from its clients. Sure enough, a month later and $100 dollars higher, Goldman has once again performed its non-fiduciary duty and released another commodities update in which the firm is now quite constructive on gold. And all it took was a month (and some called us cynical). That said, as Goldman is now selling gold, it may be time to reevaluate gold positions, at least from a technical trade perspective.

[seekingclarity]

Looks like the drop is on its way. The Squid doing its shake-out 'work'?

 

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/goldman-r...ls-gold-clients

 

 

Nearly took some profit earlier, but events now moving faster than the analysts can analyse.

Spiked back thru 1225 on naked short announcement & euro currently at 1.225..I feel we may break 1.20 in Asian trade and a third attempt on 1250 if my count is correct. Never a dull moment.

[Ret45]

I was expecting a bigger drop in pog today. Maybe its all the talk of Prechter but gold seems toppy right now. But for some reason I can't bring myself to sell. That's partly because I earn in euro (now at 1.21 on the dollar!!) but mainly because I am starting to fall into a fundamentalist state of mind that believes that all fiat is going to slide and dips in pog are just minor blips in an upward trajectory. The fundamentals are so rotten, there is so much malinvestment that must be wiped out in a forest fire of wealth destruction before the green shoots can appear from the charred remains. All that's happening are desperate attempts by the Fed & co. to hold back the tide. But the tide has to go out and to quote Buffet we'll see who is swimming naked. Does that make me a goldbug? What the hell, there is worse company.

 

 

edit: fat finger spelling

[warpig]

I'm not so sure, we're pretty bad company... Welcome to the club!

 

I was expecting a bigger drop in pog today. Maybe its all the talk of Prechter but gold seems toppy right now. But for some reason I can't bring myself to sell. That's partly because I earn in euro (now at 1.21 on the dollar!!) but mainly because I am starting to fall into a fundamentalist state of mind that believes that all fiat is going to slide and dips in pog are just minor blips in an upward trajectory. The fundamentals are so rotten, there is so much malinvestment that must be wiped out in a forest fire of wealth destruction before the green shoots can appear from the charred remains. All that's happening are desparate attempts by the Fed & co. to hold back the tide. But the tide has to go out and to quote Buffet we'll see who is swimming naked. Does that make me a goldbug? What the hell, there is worse company.

[Ret45]

I'm not so sure, we're pretty bad company... Welcome to the club!

 

thanks, I'll await instructions on the secret handshake.

 

POG in euro back up to all time high territory of over €1000...ah well, the euro was nice while it lasted.

[Jake]

Nearly took some profit earlier, but events now moving faster than the analysts can analyse.

I can relate to that.

[shawth]

I'd rather not do that as the spreadsheet contains quite a bit of personal information in addition to just raw data and formulae.

 

I could come up with a new spreadsheet containing just the non-personal bits, but that would take a little time -- time that I don't have at the moment.

 

Alternatively, if there are specific questions you have on how to calculate particular things, I could just field those questions?

 

Well, my spreadsheet just manually calculates the average from the last 200 days spot price so I am sure there is a better way to calculate this? Also I would like to display the relative ratio and the spot price on the same graph but I am not an excel whiz and can't work out how to do this without getting an unreadable graph.

 

It am trying to get a chart for gold sterling and hui in the same manner as the zealllc charts. Do you subscribe to zealllc? Do you knwo the ones I am referring to?

 

Thanks.

[shawth]

I'd rather not do that as the spreadsheet contains quite a bit of personal information in addition to just raw data and formulae.

 

I could come up with a new spreadsheet containing just the non-personal bits, but that would take a little time -- time that I don't have at the moment.

 

Alternatively, if there are specific questions you have on how to calculate particular things, I could just field those questions?

 

Well, my spreadsheet just manually calculates the average from the last 200 days spot price so I am sure there is a better way to calculate this? Also I would like to display the relative ratio and the spot price on the same graph but I am not an excel whiz and can't work out how to do this without getting an unreadable graph.

 

It am trying to get a chart for gold sterling and hui in the same manner as the zealllc charts. Do you subscribe to zealllc? Do you knwo the ones I am referring to?

 

Thanks.

[G0ldfinger]

The EUR is hanging on to a cliff:

 

http://gold.approximity.com/since1968/Gold..._LOG_GUESS.html

 

http://gold.approximity.com/since1999/Gold_EUR.html

[LauraB]

Brief piece on BloombergTV this morning, around 10.00am. I was distracted so may not have heard correctly? - One physical backed fund an increase of 3 ton in purchases over last few days? Did I hear that correctly? Presenter (female) sounded shocked.

Whatever, it was very bullish. "Gold to $1500 soon". "Folk don't trust paper". "Continuing Euro problems. etc

 

Sorry to be so vague

[Jake]

What was the price of gold when 723oz would buy you the av house? (in GBP) And how much was the av price then, whenever it was? 2000?

[G0ldfinger]

What was the price of gold when 723oz would buy you the av house? (in GBP) And how much was the av price then, whenever it was? 2000?

See other thread:

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....st&p=167872

[Wanderer]

1197 down 30. Now that's a fairly good smackdown if ever I saw one. Smackdown or just general de-leveraging?

 

Fortunately sold nearly half my e-gold this a.m. before the smack. Did buy some more physical last night and it hurts to have to make good on my CiD order. Mustn't shirk it though.