GOLD

[Magpie]

Certainly real:

 

Bush convenes Plunge Protection Team...

 

I'm surprised you're not more cynical towards "the powers that be".

 

Yep, I accepted it was real in the first line of my post.

 

I just think it is over-used as a justification when the market does something the investor didn't expect - so "my good calls are the result of excellent chart-reading (or whatever) but my bad calls are the result of the PPT" - a version of gamblers delusion. I'm sure the PPT occasionally intervenes, but I doubt it happens as often as some would suggest.

 

There's a similar problem with constant appeals to the gold 'cartel'. Might be some truth in it, but you can get too attached to it as a one-size-fits-all justification for gold prices being below their 'natural level'.

 

[tinecu]

Precious Metals Correction to End in May

Commodities / Gold & Silver May 12, 2008 - 02:02 PM

 

By: Captain_Hook

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article4680.html

 

Beautiful stuff. My gran used to quote that to me, bless her soul. "Never a borrower or lender be" Wise words.

[stobar]

Given the correlation between the POG in Euros and Dollars lately - I thought this might be useful info...Gold, Silver and Euros

[Steve Netwriter]

GOLD/HUI - Bottom Must Be Near!

Eric Hommelberg

May 12, 2008

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/ho...berg051208.html

 

The relative gold chart did not end up in the green BUY zone. Now should we wait until it does? In order to do so gold should fall below its own 200 dma which suggests gold prices in the low 800's. I know there are quite a few gold analysts out there predicting such gold prices indeed but in order to do so gold should break its strong support level at $850 to the down-side.

 

For me as an investor it doesn't bother me. Again, the only thing that matters is that down-side risk has dropped below 10%! Just think about it: when looking back in 2012 with gold prices at $2000 and more would you regret it buying gold at $880 in 2008 instead of maybe $820? No, of course not, as the saying goes " BUY low, SELL high" it's now the time the add to your existing positions. The risk here is to be out of the market, not to be in.

 

This is the point I made the other day. That downside risk appears to be small compared with the upside potential.

 

One thing which slightly concerns me about that article is the assumption that gold will correct to the 200dma. Not always. Sometimes it just goes up and up. And that makes the upside potential bigger than implied IMO.

 

[Steve Netwriter]

Yep, I accepted it was real in the first line of my post.

 

I just think it is over-used as a justification when the market does something the investor didn't expect - so "my good calls are the result of excellent chart-reading (or whatever) but my bad calls are the result of the PPT" - a version of gamblers delusion. I'm sure the PPT occasionally intervenes, but I doubt it happens as often as some would suggest.

 

There's a similar problem with constant appeals to the gold 'cartel'. Might be some truth in it, but you can get too attached to it as a one-size-fits-all justification for gold prices being below their 'natural level'.

 

Yes, I know you did. I was just providing evidence.

I don't disagree with your general point.

 

But that's the trouble with paranoia. Sometimes they are out to get you

 

I'm sorry but I set you a little test. Whether you would read the suggested 'goldbugs' article.

You obviously didn't as you would have discovered that it agrees with you

 

 

The Plunge Protection Team

by John Mauldin

http://www.safehaven.com/article-721.htm

 

"Thus conspiracy theorists and the plunge protection theme. In four decades, I've heard hundreds of theories. The collapse of the Hunt Brothers' silver bubble was roundly blamed on a government conspiracy. As time went on it was obvious there was no conspiracy - not there or in hundreds of other cases. But....when your perfect game is ruined in the final frame (bowling) or the final inning (baseball) - dashed hopes demand a villain - an evil deus ex machina. They stole it from me, I tell ya!!"

 

I think that proves that not all 'goldbugs' think the same. I am not a number, I am an individual

 

[Magpie]

I'm sorry but I set you a little test. Whether you would read the suggested 'goldbugs' article.

You obviously didn't as you would have discovered that it agrees with you

 

Aha, sorry. I do sometimes read the articles, honest, just a bit busy this morning

 

But that's the trouble with paranoia. Sometimes they are out to get you ...

 

I think that proves that not all 'goldbugs' think the same. I am not a number, I am an individual

 

Yes, I can certainly agree that some are more mad than others.

 

 

[Steve Netwriter]

Beautiful stuff. My gran used to quote that to me, bless her soul. "Never a borrower or lender be" Wise words.

 

Yes isn't it

 

Given the choice, I'd rather be a lender. At least I'd end up with the house

 

[Magpie]

I do like the Art Cashin quote in that article: "People can't stand two things - randomness and responsibility."

 

Very wise comment.

[Steve Netwriter]

Aha, sorry. I do sometimes read the articles, honest, just a bit busy this morning

 

 

 

Yes, I can certainly agree that some are more mad than others.

 

Yes, we're all mad. Just to different degrees

 

[Steve Netwriter]

I do like the Art Cashin quote in that article: "People can't stand two things - randomness and responsibility."

 

Very wise comment.

 

Careful, I might get you reading goldbug articles next. From that it's a short distance to madness

 

[G0ldfinger]

The Prelude to Double-Digit Inflation

by Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D. 05-12-08

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/Issues.aspx...terEntryId=1774

Good article.

[Magpie]

Careful, I might get you reading goldbug articles next. From that it's a short distance to madness

 

I already read quite a lot of them. I mainly do that thing of dismissing them as "nutso goldbug stuff" to irritate you, but in truth I think some of them really help to give an alternative viewpoint on what's 'really happening in the economy', whatever I think about gold - because the goldbug point of view strips out a few assumptions that many economists take for granted.

 

Not sure if it was one you linked to but I read one the other day about how Adam Smith never talked about 'recessions', only about dear years and cheap years. It's an interesting point, because it connects to one of the hidden assumptions of current economists - that permanent growth is 1) possible and 2) desirable - going back to Adam Smith makes you realise the whole Keynesian approach did a lot to cement this idea of permanent growth, permanent inflation as the only possible model.

 

[Bobsta]

Magpie, I enjoy your contributions on here as it gives a sense of balance and allows us to continuously re-test the bullish arguments, etc.

 

However.... Magpies are attracted to shiny metals, are they not? ... So why the skepticism?!

[Steve Netwriter]

Anyone into Batman ?

 

Ka Pow !!!!

 

You've gotta love NY opening times

 

Copy (not live):

[Steve Netwriter]

I already read quite a lot of them. I mainly do that thing of dismissing them as "nutso goldbug stuff" to irritate you, but in truth I think some of them really help to give an alternative viewpoint on what's 'really happening in the economy', whatever I think about gold - because the goldbug point of view strips out a few assumptions that many economists take for granted.

 

Not sure if it was one you linked to but I read one the other day about how Adam Smith never talked about 'recessions', only about dear years and cheap years. It's an interesting point, because it connects to one of the hidden assumptions of current economists - that permanent growth is 1) possible and 2) desirable - going back to Adam Smith makes you realise the whole Keynesian approach did a lot to cement this idea of permanent growth, permanent inflation as the only possible model.

 

Fair enough

 

I'll get you back with a few rockets soon

 

Just not today, as the PPT has just leased a few tonnes of gold

 

[Magpie]

Magpie, I enjoy your contributions on here as it gives a sense of balance and allows us to continuously re-test the bullish arguments, etc.

 

However.... Magpies are attracted to shiny metals, are they not? ... So why the skepticism?!

 

Good point. A strange accident of naming - the name comes from something completely different and was chosen well before I got interested in arguing about gold...

 

I like gold, anyway. Just not as an object of religious awe.

 

[Magpie]

Just not today, as the PPT has just leased a few tonnes of gold

 

Oy, that is a bit of a vertical drop isn't it. The cartel must be angry that we're talking about them.

 

[tinecu]

Blimey smacked down to $865!

 

Custer's last stand?

[Bobsta]

Blimey smacked down to $865!

 

Custer's last stand?

 

Silver got a pasting too... and GBP rallying a little. Any news out there?

[ologhai]

Silver got a pasting too... and GBP rallying a little. Any news out there?

 

Obviously, it's just the UK, but the latest UK inflation figures (out today) show inflation to be rising quite substantially. I would've expected this to strengthen the price of gold as a result.

 

Hey ho...

[tl8177]

Silver got a pasting too... and GBP rallying a little. Any news out there?

 

I take it that it is not this :

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/1952064/Ca...rice-fears.html

 

And silver was starting to move

[drbubb]

(first the good news, the bad news):

 

When Bad News Is Good News for Gold

By MARK HULBERT

 

I HAVE SOME GOOD NEWS for beleaguered gold investors: The editors of gold timing newsletters finally have thrown in the towel and given up hope that the bull market in gold will soon resume.

 

If you have a hard time understanding why that is good news, you're not familiar with contrarian analysis. According to contrarians, the market rarely accommodates the majority, especially at major market turning points.

 

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB121001...xclusives_right

 

= = =

 

 

Bad News? What is actually happening

[Bobsta]

I thought it was down to the "better than expected" US Retail Sales figures - Bloomberg

 

... but it's bouncing back likely. It looks like the news may have lit a fire under Crude. Nearly $3/bl up from this morning.

[G0ldfinger]

I take it that it is not this :

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/1952064/Ca...rice-fears.html

 

And silver was starting to move

Yes. That Mrs Flint gave away that the government knows that houses will crash at least 5-10% this year amused me as well. Since governments usually get it wrong, make it a 12%-15%.

[alexreeve]

July futures expire 20th June... So nope.

 

Maybe stats on reserves are due that day? ... Or maybe this is just Jim playing with us and making random predictions (like he did with the first week of May).

 

Just found this, thought it may be relevant to the "Why 15 June" questions, circulating a couple of days ago

 

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1210687295.php

 

But that other key mover of the Gold Market since last summer – the banking panic that sparked a Flight into Physical Gold by anxious investors and drove prices from $650 to $1,032 per ounce – may make a sudden return in the next month, believes Meyrick Chapman, an analyst at UBS.

Reviewing the key events of the global credit crisis to date, Chapman notes

 

the collapse of Northern Rock on Sept. 14,

the joint central-bank action of Dec. 12,

and then the bail-out of Bear Stearns – the fifth largest financial institution in the United States – on March 14.

 

All came within a week of quarterly settlement dates for currency and interest-rate contracts traded at the International Monetary Market (IMM), a major focus for interbank trading.

"We are expecting to see a gradual increase in risk aversion coupled with wider spreads and rising volatility," says Chapman in his new strategy report for UBS in London.

Citing June 18th as the next potential flash-point, "we probably won't see the same disruption as we saw in March," the report goes on, because of the central bank action seen in the meantime.