GOLD

[Pixel8r]

looking at the pog since it broke a 1000 again, I am wondering are we set for a year of Déjà vu

Nah, $1200 within three months

 

[grumpy-old-man]

Yep saw you were stiring things up over there, looked like you were having fun.

 

will gold hold that support level...

 

I think gold will hold

 

no TA was involved or harmed with this prediction.

[Catflap]

How is it possible to get even slightly bearish about gold priced in GBP?

 

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article9241.html

 

As Novembers article pointed out ( Bankrupt Britain Trending Towards Hyper-Inflation?) Britain is already on its way towards becoming a big version of Iceland as liabilities continue to soar, the greater the liabilities the greater the probability that the British economy will collapse into debt default and hyperinflation. Gordon Brown has already loaded the UK tax payer to the tune of £1.2 trillion of bankrupt bank liabilities, with the odds strong that this will pass above £2 trillion by the end of 2009. The amount of liabilities are truly staggering and really do risk the bankruptcy of the country, for example the total amount of revenue the government earns from taxation is just £550 billion AND CONTRACTING. Debt EXPLODING, Revenues CONTRACTING = Further sharp falls in the exchange rate towards parity to the US Dollar.

 

Seems reasonable to me - GBP is going further down the crapper.

 

[FWIW]

Just talked to my usual source who informed me that the gold bottom is in.

 

 

Hey cgnao - any updates from your source? Today was a real rollercoaster!

 

 

This is from http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article9241.html

Gold Quick update ($920)- The trend so far is close to the forecast for 2009 ( Gold Price Forecast 2009 )as illustrated by the original graph below that called for a rally to $960 by early March and a decline to $820 by Mid 2009. Yes gold broke above $960 to above $1000, which on face value is a sign of relative strength. However time wise gold has turned lower a little earlier than originally anticipated this therefore is a sign of weakness, which therefore neutralises the stronger price run and continues to confirm the trend towards the target of $820. However the rate of decline suggests an earlier low probably by late April 09.

 

[G0ldfinger]

http://jsmineset.com/index.php/2009/03/04/...onetary-stress/

Gold’s Role During Periods Of Monetary Stress

Posted: Mar 04 2009 By: Jim Sinclair Post Edited: March 4, 2009 at 5:18 pm

 

Filed under: General Editorial

 

Dear CIGAs,

 

Gold’s job is, and will always attempt to during periods of monetary stress, balance the INTERNATIONAL Balance Sheet of the USA.

 

Putting the Numbers Into The Equation:

 

$3,125,000,000,000 / 260,272,000 ounces of gold = $12,006.67 per ounce of gold.

 

In the early 70s I put an advertisement in Barrons predicting gold would rise to $900. When it got near that level, I left for 21 years.

 

I reappeared officially when Forbes published an article on my career December 10th of 2001. Click here to view the Forbes article…

 

The mathematics behind the $900 number came from the following equation plus reasonable trend estimates on the number going into the future.

 

You will note the number today fits in nicely with Alf’s high levels.

 

* Major ONE up from $256 to $1,015 (actually 4 times the $255 low);

* Major TWO down from $1015 to $699, say $700 (a decline of 31%);

* Major THREE up from $700 to $3,500 (a Fibonacci 5 times the $500 low);

* Major FOUR down from $3,500 to $2,500 (a 29% decline);

* Major FIVE up from $2,500 to $10,000 (also a 4 fold increase, same as ONE)

 

I would not have revealed this unless a recognized expert who has a 100% track record such as Alf Fields predicted it first.

 

I did not wish to yell "fire in the theatre."

 

It certainly make the Comex manipulators, who could easily be stopped, look long-term silly today.

 

Jim

 

-----------------------

 

Jim

 

See the following two links as support:

 

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/FDHBFIN.txt

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Official_gold_reserves

In the past, I believe you have said that the price of gold could reach a level whereby in dollar terms this equation will hold:

 

Oz’s of Gold Held by US x $ Price of Gold = External Debt

 

From the above links we find:

 

Federal Debt held by Foreign Investors = $3,125,000,000,000 (as of 12/31/08)

 

Official US Gold holdings = 8,133.5 tonnes (or 260,272,000 oz’s)

 

Putting the #’s into the equation:

 

$3,125,000,000,000 / 260,272,000 = $12,006.67 per ounce of gold

 

My question is - what is the mechanism or thought process that makes the equation true?

 

(I guess that I am looking for the why?)

 

Thank you for your time.

CIGA Rich Gold

[romans holiday]

$12,006.67 per ounce of gold

 

This is a meaningless price. If gold ever reached it, dollars would be toast and then why bother about dollar price.

[Fortune]

Hey cgnao - any updates from your source? Today was a real rollercoaster!

 

 

This is from http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article9241.html

Gold Quick update ($920)- The trend so far is close to the forecast for 2009 ( Gold Price Forecast 2009 )as illustrated by the original graph below that called for a rally to $960 by early March and a decline to $820 by Mid 2009. Yes gold broke above $960 to above $1000, which on face value is a sign of relative strength. However time wise gold has turned lower a little earlier than originally anticipated this therefore is a sign of weakness, which therefore neutralises the stronger price run and continues to confirm the trend towards the target of $820. However the rate of decline suggests an earlier low probably by late April 09.

 

I don't get Nadeem's EW counts. Correct me if I'm wrong, shouldn't it be 3 impulse waves up and 2 corrective waves down for the bull cycle (e.g. 1-2-3-4-5) followed by 2 corrective waves down and 1 impulse wave up for the bear cycle (e.g. A-B-C), thus completing the whole gold market lifecycle? And in the 2 corrective waves down of the bull cycle, shouldn't they take the form of an A-B-C wave, rather than a 1-2-3-4-5 wave? Seem to me like his counts are mixing-up secular bear and bull lifecycle waves.

[G0ldfinger]

$12,006.67 per ounce of gold

 

This is a meaningless price. If gold ever reached it, dollars would be toast and then why bother about dollar price.

You are 100% wrong. This is the price gold should have NOW, under current conditions. The "toast" price would be much, much higher.

[FWIW]

I don't get Nadeem's EW counts. Correct me if I'm wrong, shouldn't it be 3 impulse waves up and 2 corrective waves down for the bull cycle (e.g. 1-2-3-4-5) followed by 2 corrective waves down and 1 impulse wave up for the bear cycle (e.g. A-B-C), thus completing the whole gold market lifecycle? And in the 2 corrective waves down of the bull cycle, shouldn't they take the form of an A-B-C wave, rather than a 1-2-3-4-5 wave? Seem to me like his counts are mixing-up secular bear and bull lifecycle waves.

 

I don't understand Elliot Waves - Looks like Kerplunk to me! I was hoping someone could explain it in very simple terms to me....especially the part about gold going to $820 mid 2009.

[Pixel8r]

I don't understand Elliot Waves - Looks like Kerplunk to me! I was hoping someone could explain it in very simple terms to me....especially the part about gold going to $820 mid 2009.

I much prefer Alf Field's elliott wave analysis, which has been spot on so far

 

• Major ONE up from $256 to $1,015 (actually 4 times the $255 low);
• Major TWO down from $1015 to $699, say $700 (a decline of 31%);
• Major THREE up from $700 to $3,500 (a Fibonacci 5 times the $500 low);
• Major FOUR down from $3,500 to $2,500 (a 29% decline);
• Major FIVE up from $2,500 to $10,000 (also a 4 fold increase, same as ONE)

[ologhai]

$12,006.67 per ounce of gold

 

This is a meaningless price. If gold ever reached it, dollars would be toast and then why bother about dollar price.

 

Although I don't share Goldfinger's certainties[1], your comment did make me wonder if, at the beginning of gold's '70s bull run, when gold shot up from a few tens of dollars an ounce to most of the way to a thousand dollars an ounce, would you have also said, 'If gold goes anywhere near $1000, then the dollar is toast'?

 

Is there something specific about this (potential) bull run that means that if gold does similarly astounding things would cause the dollar to be toast, where (as far as I know!) it wasn't toasted last time?

 

[1] That's not to say I disagree; only that I don't know.

[FWIW]

I much prefer Alf Field's elliott wave analysis, which has been spot on so far

 

• Major ONE up from $256 to $1,015 (actually 4 times the $255 low);
• Major TWO down from $1015 to $699, say $700 (a decline of 31%);
• Major THREE up from $700 to $3,500 (a Fibonacci 5 times the $500 low);
• Major FOUR down from $3,500 to $2,500 (a 29% decline);
• Major FIVE up from $2,500 to $10,000 (also a 4 fold increase, same as ONE)

 

So are you saying that if you can afford to wait to buy more gold, then wait until it get's anywhere near $700?

 

I might try this strategy with a portion of my USD cash pile!

[ologhai]

So are you saying that if you can afford to wait to buy more gold, then wait until it get's anywhere near $700?

 

I might try this strategy with a portion of my USD cash pile!

 

Hasn't it already done it's 'from $1000 down to $700' bit?

[FWIW]

Hasn't it already done it's 'from $1000 down to $700' bit?

 

I don't know - that's why I can't get my head around EW's. I just think that someone can draw lines and make it say whatever they want. A bit like horoscopes for nerds...

 

If they had dates on each of the stages, like when the prediction was made, the current Gold USD price, etc. It would make them easier to understand and therefore maybe easier to debunk?

 

From my Fundamentalist view points - this is a once in a multi-generation event. When GMTV start trying to explain Quantitavie Easing at 6.30 am, you must know the gig is up? Especially when they start saying things like "Creating money out of thin air" to help the economy...

 

Now nobody is asking what will happen to that money e.g. BOE will buy 'assets'. But what if that money was used to instead prop up the GBP or any other fiat brethren? Who would know? The GBP could then be kept going. Maybe even that cash could be used to short GOLD ETF's?

 

I feel that once the BOE drink this kool-aid, they will be back for more...You see it is GREED. IT IS IN THEIR NATURE.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[ologhai]

Hasn't it already done it's 'from $1000 down to $700' bit?

 

I would like to apologise for my bad use of an apostrophe! That should've been its not it's... *embarrassed*

[Pixel8r]

So are you saying that if you can afford to wait to buy more gold, then wait until it get's anywhere near $700?

 

I might try this strategy with a portion of my USD cash pile!

No, I am not saying that! It has already been to $700 ($698 actually), I think we are at the start of wave 3, so should be on our way to $3500

 

I also like the way Alf finishes his reports;

 

I have noticed from the emails that I receive that many people are using these reports to guide their trading activities in gold. I have had no objection to this in the past, but feel that it would be foolish to trade gold in the circumstances of the Big Kahuna crisis that we are living though at the moment. It has become a question of individual financial survival in an environment where things are happening more rapidly and with increasing violence. I feel very strongly that it is time to quietly hold onto one’s gold insurance and not attempt to trade it. I do not wish to provide interim levels that may cause people to be encouraged to trade their gold to skim a few extra fiat dollars or other currencies, but lose their gold as a result.

[romans holiday]

You are 100% wrong. This is the price gold should have NOW, under current conditions. The "toast" price would be much, much higher.

Should have?? According to who? Isn't the market is the true measure for the investor?

 

Don't get me wrong... I think gold is going higher. But when it is that much higher I doubt we will be concerned with the price in dollars as the dollar would have capitulated to gold by then. For now, the two will continue to battle it out. I expect 200MDA to track sideways within a volatile range for the year unless of course we get a real black swan instead of all these crows which only serve to strengthen the dollar.

[romans holiday]

Although I don't share Goldfinger's certainties[1], your comment did make me wonder if, at the beginning of gold's '70s bull run, when gold shot up from a few tens of dollars an ounce to most of the way to a thousand dollars an ounce, would you have also said, 'If gold goes anywhere near $1000, then the dollar is toast'?

Is there something specific about this (potential) bull run that means that if gold does similarly astounding things would cause the dollar to be toast, where (as far as I know!) it wasn't toasted last time?

 

[1] That's not to say I disagree; only that I don't know.

No, because that was inflationary. What we are seeing now is deflationary [or diinflationary, or deleveraging, or macro deflation, or debt deflation if you do not like that word]. The dollar is strengthening due to what I have seen referred to as "financial protectionism"; the repatriation of capital to its base currency. If gold explodes from here it would involve the collapse of the dollar and I do not see that happening anytime soon. Do you? I do think though that eventually the terrible fundamentals of the dollar will catch up with it. For now it is market phenomenology that matters.

[romans holiday]

Is there something specific about this (potential) bull run that means that if gold does similarly astounding things would cause the dollar to be toast, where (as far as I know!) it wasn't toasted last time?

Yes, it would involve the qualitative depreciation of the dollar along the lines of what we have seen with other currencies and against certain other currencies. imo "quantitative easing" is irrelevant as long as deflationary forces remain entrenched.

[Fortune]

Alf's EW Count:

[FWIW]

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/03/05...es-the-pundits/

 

Also since November, gold never fell below its 50-day moving average. Finally, the latest retreat remains within the upward channel, suggesting support remains holding at 890. Only a breach below 888-887, will cast serious doubt on the current bull run. if there’s one singular reason gold is unlikely to repeat the October selloff is that today central banks are either at or on their way to quantitative easing (Fed, BoE, BoJ & BoC), followed closely by the SNB.

[FWIW]

I have got my crayons out again...

 

 

The red box is the first support level. The yellow is the second support level. The green boxes give me a sense of deja-vu. I feel like how I felt in October 2008 investing in gold when everyone told me not to and that I was stupid!

 

Difference between now and then is that I have my physical and I also have my GoldMoney gold...I also sleep better now!

 

 

 

 

[G0ldfinger]

Although I don't share Goldfinger's certainties[1], ...

There are no certainties. But there is a model.The model is based on today's data and not tomorrow's maybe hyper-inflated data where gold could go to infinity.

[dietcolaaddict]

I believe 'TheGoldThread@GEI' is now one year old......

 

As Quantitative Easing panic grips HPC, its pretty clear that banning gold discussion at HPC was a bad idea. Collectively, we had much to say*

 

 

 

 

 

* - although lets not get complacent, lots of challenges and concerns still in the year ahead

 

 

 

 

[romans holiday]

I believe 'TheGoldThread@GEI' is now one year old......

 

As Quantitative Easing panic grips HPC, its pretty clear that banning gold discussion at HPC was a bad idea. Collectively, we had much to say*

 

 

 

 

 

* - although lets not get complacent, lots of challenges and concerns still in the year ahead

It's interesting how on the other channel they have gone from deflationary concerns towards hyper-inflationary ones. Dare I say the opposite tendency is true on this site?

 

A good contrarian indicator?