qwerty Posted August 20, 2008 Report Share Posted August 20, 2008 A very solid interview IMHO. Clearly we don't know how he performed his calculations and what assumptions/rates were used, but on that performance he's clearly a smart, lucid professional. One of the more credible investors / pundits out there in my view. Very useful comments on juniors, I thought. Maybe you could get him on CWR CC? This is the formula he was using Similarly, if the amount of gold increases, the value of gold will decrease. Due to its physical properties almost all of the gold ever mined is still around in one form or another, which is one of the reasons why gold is so suitable to be money in the first place. The amount of gold mined on an annual basis is nothing other than inflation of the total amount of gold ever mined. The inflation rate of gold is thus new mine production as a percentage of above ground gold stock, which in turn is equal to the total amount of gold mined since the beginning of time. Consequently, the change in the gold price, in dollars, over time will be in proportion to the inflation of the dollar and inversely proportional to the inflation of gold. We can calculate the theoretical gold price (Aun) as follows: Aun = Aun-1(M3n/M3n-1)(GPn-1/GPn) [Au = gold price; M3 = money supply; GP = gold production] Noticed him doing the rounds lately think he is feeling the pinch too used to be around £1000 for annual subscription to his newsletter now around £150 oh and you can pay monthly too!. https://www.paulvaneeden.com/pebble.asp?relid=496 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qwerty Posted August 20, 2008 Report Share Posted August 20, 2008 Great interview, thanks for sharing. Can't find his Cranberry Capital company on the internet. Know anything about it? Need to check out Altius Minerals. Cranberry Capital is his private holding company. Other interviews on his website here: http://www.paulvaneeden.com/pebble.asp?relid=1194 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wednesday2 Posted August 20, 2008 Report Share Posted August 20, 2008 Wonder how his track record is. Wonder if his newsletter makes POG calls. Cranberry Capital is his private holding company. Other interviews on his website here: http://www.paulvaneeden.com/pebble.asp?relid=1194 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skinny Posted August 20, 2008 Report Share Posted August 20, 2008 Thanks Quark, here are 2 CWR interviews from 2007 http://commoditywatch.podbean.com/2007/06/...a-and-aquiline/ http://commoditywatch.podbean.com/2007/10/...ichael-hampton/ One of them is absolutly wonderful [he pulls Frizzers leg nicely too], can't rember which one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1waving Posted August 25, 2008 Report Share Posted August 25, 2008 One possible count which would call for a wave 5 down from here -- this whole move down looks quite impulsive but the fundamentals argue against that being the first leg down of a major correction. Still bullish but waiting to see what the chart does in the near term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted August 25, 2008 Author Report Share Posted August 25, 2008 Can't find the original post about Paul Van Eeden saying gold was overvalued, but here is a recent interview http://watch.bnn.ca/trading-day/august-200...2008/#clip84424 Bubb - u dismissed his reasoning - wonder if u could flesh that out a bit He certainly looks quite smart just now - went neutral at 1000, nibbling sub 800, as beleives fair value = 760 It depends on the starting point, I suppose. Does he really believe US inflation numbers? If so, he;s being foolish Walden. Where you put a 4, i might put an A, with a B and C to come* *Note: Mine is only one possible pathway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1waving Posted August 25, 2008 Report Share Posted August 25, 2008 Walden. Where you put a 4, i might put an A, with a B and C to come* *Note: Mine is only one possible pathway Thanks for that addition, should have spotted the wave iv resistance at the recent high as possibly being the A leg peak with the B and C still to come ( Although there may have been an A-B-C up already ) The next week or two should complete the overall pattern down from the all time high as what looks like a corrective A-B-C, just a little concerned by the possible impulsive nature of the C leg and if it forms 5 down. With seasonality favouring a move up in September, looking for a bullish move then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted August 27, 2008 Author Report Share Posted August 27, 2008 LOOK HOW Gold (GLD) continues to follow the same path as Oil (USO) and Oil Service stocks (OIH): ... update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 2, 2008 Author Report Share Posted September 2, 2008 THIS BIG GAP DOWN in Gold and Oil ... May be exactly what is needed to put in a low. I wasnt happy with the last low and Oil, and said it needed to be retested. This is it! And so far, Volume looks lighter too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1waving Posted September 2, 2008 Report Share Posted September 2, 2008 Looks to have completed a wave 4 and now down into a possible wave 5 of the C leg down from the main A-B-C down from the peak over $1,000. So far this possible 5 waves down is pretty well behaved and now looking for that fifth wave to break down into it's own 5. We should see a new recent low if that happens. There's also rising trendline support currently close to $770 running up from July 05 --- that may prove to be strong support. Minus development / rapid and sustained rejection up from around that $770 area would give a kiss it goodbye effect and would signal an important low. ------ Just one of many scenarios that may happen, but maybe one to look out for. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 2, 2008 Author Report Share Posted September 2, 2008 What are the significance of 'Gaps' as seen on the Oil/Gold Charts and pointed out be DrB? Gaps tend to get filled (maybe 90-95% of the time). So a gap down on the opening suggests that the market may want to come back up. Did anyone bother to look at that XAU chart? ... update The fact that XAU has come back down to the 987d.MA* on lighter volume with this Gold drop, suggests that the downside pressure is exhausting itself. I look for a move up in Gold and Gold shares from here *987 is a Fibonacci number Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tell Posted September 3, 2008 Report Share Posted September 3, 2008 "Iran to extract 10 tons of gold"... http://tinyurl.com/64z4yt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1waving Posted September 9, 2008 Report Share Posted September 9, 2008 The possible A-B-C down from the all time high with the C wave breaking down into a 5 wave form looks to be in it's final wave v with just one more low to complete the pattern, probably in the next couple of days. Rapid price rejection from a new low would be a good start for a bullish move. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbs7 Posted September 14, 2008 Report Share Posted September 14, 2008 The possible A-B-C down from the all time high with the C wave breaking down into a 5 wave form looks to be in it's final wave v with just one more low to complete the pattern, probably in the next couple of days. Rapid price rejection from a new low would be a good start for a bullish move. . Hi walden I hope you are right, it certainly felt emotionally something like a low last week. I wouldn't like to see many more sharp around this low but carving out a low while any remaining bullish optimism is wrung out of the market. I like biwwii's commentary on the HUI http://biiwii.blogspot.com/2008/09/hui-wee...e-road-map.html and I did like the volume on the HUI which suggested a strong powerful reversal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 16, 2008 Author Report Share Posted September 16, 2008 Look at those Gold lease rates - Sept.16th 1-month 0.7761% +0.3409 2-month 0.8209% +0.2379 3-month 0.8906% +0.2276 6-month 1.0520% +0.2607 1-year : 0.9954% +0.2646 /see: http://www.kitco.com/market/LFrate.html This is bullish. Even paper Gold is getting hard to find & borrow. The big jumps of yesterday are noteworthy 6 month rates over 1% ! - we dont see that very often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 17, 2008 Author Report Share Posted September 17, 2008 I've been working on the pricinple that the only reason to borrow gold is to short it. Am I missing something? sure.\ banks borrow it, sell it, and lend the money to gold miners the gold miners repay gold and / Institutions that borrowed gold previously are seeing their borrowing costs rise, and that will encourage them to buyback gold to cover their shorts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinny Posted September 19, 2008 Report Share Posted September 19, 2008 Look at those Gold lease rates - Sept.16th 1-month 0.7761% +0.3409 2-month 0.8209% +0.2379 3-month 0.8906% +0.2276 6-month 1.0520% +0.2607 1-year : 0.9954% +0.2646 /see: http://www.kitco.com/market/LFrate.html This is bullish. Even paper Gold is getting hard to find & borrow. The big jumps of yesterday are noteworthy 6 month rates over 1% ! - we dont see that very often Funny enough I was talking about gold lease rates with my GF earlier than you posted this - seems to me like the lease rates are more reliable than may other indicators I use at the moment. A point I made was that those moves are massive - it is easy to dismiss small moves eg 0.2% , but really lease rates have basically quadrupled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted October 2, 2008 Author Report Share Posted October 2, 2008 Gold shares (GDX) - has broken down, with gold's fall below $850, and fallen back to OTP point near $xx This is in a bad news background: + Merrill is talking about a fall in oil back to $50 - if we see global recessiom, + Factory orders fell 4% The good news for gold bulls is the low volume on this slide same chart for gold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwizzie Posted October 2, 2008 Report Share Posted October 2, 2008 This is in a bad news background: + Merrill is talking about a fall in oil back to $50 - if we see global recessiom, + Factory orders fell 4% This is the level Tim Wood and comrades have been suggesting too. His record is pretty good but do you think this level is attainable i.e. Will opec/ saudis / Russia allow it to drop below $90? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted October 6, 2008 Author Report Share Posted October 6, 2008 David Bensimon was interviewed on Bloomberg: He was he predicted a $732 low for gold, and $80 for oil. He now thinks the current bounce will be followed by a retest - ideally in April 2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted October 7, 2008 Author Report Share Posted October 7, 2008 -9.05% HUI -7.85% FTSE 100 -6.60% DOW -7.10% S&P 500 -7.75% FTSE Eurofirst 300 -4.25% Nikkei +4.37% Gold It's not traded this low ratio to gold since the beginning of 2002, before the bull began! Let's hope that it dosnt need to go all the way to the bottom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chazza Posted October 7, 2008 Report Share Posted October 7, 2008 Let's hope that it dosnt need to go all the way to the bottom From the HUI:Gold ratio chart it looks like it might... Looks like it broke through suport at 0.32, heading to 0.22.... (Sorry, can't copy the BBg graph over..) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
callmejoe Posted October 11, 2008 Report Share Posted October 11, 2008 There's a very interesting take on gold at http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article6724.html The page is best viewed using Mozilla Firefox with Adblock Plus - takes out all those distracting ads. If I have posted this in the wrong section of this website, please move my post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted October 14, 2008 Author Report Share Posted October 14, 2008 Looks like a nice double bottom could be in place And the lease rates are also bullish SO GOLD may be on the launch pad again == == DO BE CAREFUL : there's also some real threat of a bigger collapse. If the lease rates werent so high,I would just stand aside. With those lease rates some GLD,GDX, or RGLD calls could be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted October 30, 2008 Author Report Share Posted October 30, 2008 Cgnao could be right. A bullish case for a gold low can be made Here's how I draw the chart: If it can power through $850, we should see fresh highs, maybe fairly quickly (as the dollar falls) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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