drbubb Posted December 18, 2012 Report Share Posted December 18, 2012 This graph shows the percentage increase in different types of housing between 1992 and 2007, including both new builds and stock that has been converted to a different form of tenure....Housing stock in the UK increased from 23.5 million to 26.6 million homes (a 13.2% increase) http://www.hnm.org.u...ing-supply.html Increase in population during same period 5.916% (1992-2007) ((60,986,600-57,580,400)/57,580,400*100) http://www.google.co...q=uk population Well spotted, Fexx. That's for the clarification ! A 7% increase - beyond population growth is quite a lot. There is also a possibility that housing demand could SHRINK, if the average household size rises. That is possible if people begin to economise on their housing costs, instead of trying to borrow their way into more housing, or talk a generous government into forking over more housing benefits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Doe Posted December 18, 2012 Report Share Posted December 18, 2012 Well spotted, Fexx. That's for the clarification ! A 7% increase - beyond population growth is quite a lot. Yet... it started from a very low base (evidenced by prices 10 years back, when the Economist suggested they were already way over priced), it is still nowhere near enough to make house affordable, the number of new homes being built has actually fallen much further over the last few years, and our population growth continues relentlessly. A huge release of land, and a massive house-building program, might just help this country out more than any other measure our PTB could introduce. Why they don't just build a new (well planned, well thought out) modern, pedestrian friendly city or two, I just cannot understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tinecu Posted December 18, 2012 Report Share Posted December 18, 2012 The rightmove index is ridiculously volatile. Best Ignore it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 18, 2012 Report Share Posted December 18, 2012 The rightmove index is ridiculously volatile. Best Ignore it. Maybe. Maybe not. Here's Rightmove Greater London offering price index - versus Knight Frank's Prime Central London index Useless ? The Rightmove index never properly reflected the drop in Prime Central London prices in 2008-2009. (Probably because most sellers refused to cut asking prices.) Useful ? Rightmove's figures may prove useful if they continue rolling over, and they are seen to drag KF's Prime Central prices (in Green) down with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meralti Posted December 18, 2012 Report Share Posted December 18, 2012 The rightmove index is ridiculously volatile. Best Ignore it. Rightmove is a seriously flawed index as discussed above but it's a good indicator of sentiment and confidence. No news coverage of these figures on mainstream sources yet. Historically Rightmove has been a reasonable leading indication of major shifts. What it really tracks is seller expectation (and EA influence there upon) when first marketing. It is a very poor indicator of actual selling prices. B.T.W I still haven't seen any direct coverage of these falls. They are only mentioned in the context of next years predicated rises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Doe Posted December 18, 2012 Report Share Posted December 18, 2012 Nearly forgot, ONS out today. Small rise... Average house prices across the UK have been rising, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Its latest monthly survey shows that prices rose by 0.2% on October, to leave them 1.5% higher than a year ago. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-20767378 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Erewhon888 Posted December 18, 2012 Report Share Posted December 18, 2012 Small rise... a decline of 2.2% in Scotland and 11.7% in Northern Ireland." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Doe Posted December 18, 2012 Report Share Posted December 18, 2012 a decline of 2.2% in Scotland and 11.7% in Northern Ireland." Well heh, who'd want to live there? Up 2.8% in Wales Cymru am byth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 18, 2012 Report Share Posted December 18, 2012 a decline of 2.2% in Scotland and 11.7% in Northern Ireland." Yep. See chart: Percentage increase in types of housing, 1991-2007 herein: http://www.hnm.org.uk/charts/housing-supply.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 18, 2012 Report Share Posted December 18, 2012 Well heh, who'd want to live there? Have you forgotten? It was once a popular "hotspot" for London based BTL investors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Doe Posted December 18, 2012 Report Share Posted December 18, 2012 Yep. See chart: Percentage increase in types of housing, 1991-2007 herein: http://www.hnm.org.u...ing-supply.html So what you're saying is, more social housing = lower housing costs? Wow, who'd have thought that eh? Have you forgotten? It was once a popular "hotspot" for London based BTL investors And Radio 5 Live DJ's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 19, 2012 Report Share Posted December 19, 2012 London versus Rest-of-UK prices i'm quite surprised you are all surprised by this/didn't see it coming. there has been a sterling crash, but london as a world city has foreign demand that the rest of the UK doesn't. the rest of the UK must suffer a crash as there are no backstops from foreign demand and also the constant demand to live in london as a premier world city with jobs, art and culture. london and manhattan are, IMO two places which have very robust demand. now whether continued economic weakness and job losses will dampen this is an interesting question, but there is a lot of resilience in these cities. I left the UK in 2006, to move to the emerging Top Global financial centre, where prices rose without a currency boost, so I think I saw the future reasonably clearly. HK has sprinted forward, faster than London or NYC, as I have chronicled in the NyLonKong thread. Speaking of seeing the future: Today, it is the huge arbitrage presented by the difference in prices between London and Rest-of-UK which surprises me. With so many boomers at-or-approaching retirement age, I think it is a very easy prediction that it will narrow hugely in the years to come. Once your income is "fixed" at retirement, and you no longer need access to a high-paying job, it makes great sense to sell a London property, cash a big profit, and move somewhere (in the Rest of UK, or even outside the UK) that might cost only half as much, which also has lower living costs. Those that do NOT do this may find their pensions are inadequate if inflation comes. And in inflationary times, London incomes and fixed pension (even more so) will lag behind incomes. House Price appreciation is very unlikely to keep pace when incomes are weaker than inflation. I think anyone who buys in Greater London at this huge price differential needs to have their head examined for lack-of-sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliveandkicking Posted December 19, 2012 Report Share Posted December 19, 2012 Access to all the Alien technology and development of Teslas ideas on zero point energy are helping to avoid the expected crash The elite and the others who are working on these projects have been buying up property knowing that it can never totally crash and they more or less have a one way bet. The Alien libraries also have access to advanced economics that are way ahead of anything humans have come up with so far. Having a big price correction was just a way to enable the insiders to buy up more stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Doe Posted December 19, 2012 Report Share Posted December 19, 2012 Access to all the Alien technology and development of Teslas ideas on zero point energy are helping to avoid the expected crash The elite and the others who are working on these projects have been buying up property knowing that it can never totally crash and they more or less have a one way bet. The Alien libraries also have access to advanced economics that are way ahead of anything humans have come up with so far. Having a big price correction was just a way to enable the insiders to buy up more stuff. I knew it! I knew that's what it was! Where you been AAK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 19, 2012 Report Share Posted December 19, 2012 AAK's back. And he's still speaking as idiocyncratically as always Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stunlee Posted December 19, 2012 Report Share Posted December 19, 2012 Excellent post. Potential purchasers should also consider the possiblity of intergalactic thermo-nuclear war or cabal time circle manipulation before deciding whether to snap up a competitively priced charming three-bedroom period cottage in Chipping Norton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tinecu Posted December 19, 2012 Report Share Posted December 19, 2012 This sale indicates a distinct lack of confidence in in the market IMO http://www.loantalk.co.uk/newsstory?id=931&type=newsfeature&title=_5bn_uk_property_bank_up_for_sale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 19, 2012 Report Share Posted December 19, 2012 Excellent post. Potential purchasers should also consider the possiblity of intergalactic thermo-nuclear war or cabal time circle manipulation before deciding whether to snap up a competitively priced charming three-bedroom period cottage in Chipping Norton. thanks. stunlee. very useful comment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Doe Posted December 20, 2012 Report Share Posted December 20, 2012 Well, as my eagle thread only lasted an hour on the main site (are you a mod now van?), I thought I mention what did catch my attention today. This was US homes improving again, http://www.bbc.co.uk...siness-20796835 alongside UK lenders predicting more lending and purchases next year. http://www.bbc.co.uk...siness-20789252 The bottom (nominal, as some of us predicted it would be over a year ago, to almost universal ridicule) might well, in future hindsight, have been late 2012 - early 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Erewhon888 Posted December 21, 2012 Report Share Posted December 21, 2012 http://www.slideshare.net/Ramseconomics/northern-ireland-housing-market-december-2012#btnNext Despite being initially an analysis of the N.I. situation, there are more general aspects of the housing trends in the UK covered later in the presentation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 23, 2012 Report Share Posted December 23, 2012 MORE HOUSE, not higher benefits needed ... Anti-poverty campaigners should ditch their support for housing benefit in favour of proposals to bring down the cost of housing for low income families, according to a free market thinktank. The £21bn cost of subsidising mortgages and rents to low incomes families could be almost halved when the government passes legislation to ease planning rules and allow more house building, the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) said. The number of people claiming housing benefit has increased by 780,000 since the beginning of 2009 to 5 million. The IEA said that only when property developers and local communities have the freedom to build more homes will the cost of housing begin to fall. The thinktank warned that lobbyists campaigning for increased government spending on housing benefit and tax credits wanted an expensive, taxpayer-funded fix that failed to tackle the long term problem of unaffordable house prices and escalating rents. More: http://www.guardian....housing-benefit TPTB should have LET Greater London "Take" is Crash medicine back in 2008-9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 25, 2012 Report Share Posted December 25, 2012 House Prices Predicted To Edge Down In 2013 Reluctance by struggling families to take on more debt and low sales are expected to act as a drag on the housing market. Monday 24 December 2012 Average prices ended the year 0.3% lower than a year ago House prices across the country fall by 1% during 2013 as the London market shows signs of cooling, property analysts have said. Prices fell 0.1% month-on-month in December, marking the sixth month in a row that this has happened, and average prices ended the year 0.3% lower than a year ago, Hometrack said. It predicts that a reluctance by struggling families to take on more debt will continue to act as a drag on the housing market next year and prices will be more volatile with continued low sales. Hometrack's monthly figures for December show prices were flat in London and East Anglia, fell 0.1% in the Midlands, the South and Yorkshire and Humberside, dropped 0.2% in the North West and Wales and by 0.3% in the North East. One in five postcodes in England and Wales recorded price increases over the past year but prices have fallen across two-thirds of the country. London has had strong demand from wealthy overseas buyers and consistently outperforms other regions, seeing prices rise in seven out of 10 postcodes this year. Property prices are now 10% higher than at the peak of the market in 2007. But price growth in London, vital to keeping average prices up in the rest of the country, is predicted to slow over next year, with a 2% annual increase pencilled in. Central London price growth looks set to slow, following the introduction of a 7% stamp duty rate placed on homes worth over £2m in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Erewhon888 Posted December 27, 2012 Report Share Posted December 27, 2012 http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/northern-ireland/northern-ireland-town-records-biggest-property-price-plunge-in-uk-16254707.html Factfile UK towns with biggest falls in average house prices: Craigavon down 18.4% (to £91,530) Wishaw 12.5% (£87,410) Chorley 9.4% (£125,156) Carlisle 9.3% (£123,100) Wirral 9.3% (£160,375) Hamilton 8.9% (£96,478) Ayr 8.2% (£116,352) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 28, 2012 Report Share Posted December 28, 2012 Seaside resort sees UK's biggest price rise Parts of the UK saw house prices drop in 2012 but these towns experienced big rises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 29, 2012 Report Share Posted December 29, 2012 In the USA... Housing Prices Surge in 2012: Thank the Fed Time - 10 Hours ago Sam Hodgson / Bloomberg / Construction crews work at the site of the Arista at the Crosby development in Rancho Santa Fe, Calif., on Dec. 21, 2012 Without a doubt, the U.S. housing market has been the Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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