ziknik Posted August 28, 2008 Report Share Posted August 28, 2008 Nationwide data released. -1.9% MoM edit: Link http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Aug_2008.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ologhai Posted August 28, 2008 Report Share Posted August 28, 2008 Nationwide data released. -1.9% MoM edit: Link http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Aug_2008.pdf (£169,316 - £164,654) / £169,316 = 2.75% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobsta Posted August 28, 2008 Report Share Posted August 28, 2008 (£169,316 - £164,654) / £169,316 = 2.75% That'll be the old "seasonal adjustment" then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ziknik Posted August 28, 2008 Report Share Posted August 28, 2008 (£169,316 - £164,654) / £169,316 = 2.75% I think this is the biggest monthly fall EVER* *(NSA, on the 1991 – present monthly spreadsheet) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted August 28, 2008 Report Share Posted August 28, 2008 Save a copy before you start. 1. Copy and paste the data from the linked spreadsheet in to your spreadsheet. Date (quarters) and Price 2. Press CTRL and H 3. Type ‘Q1 ‘ in the first box and ‘01/01/’ into the second box. Then click ‘Replace All’ (note, there is a space after Q1) 4. Do the same for the other quarters 5. Right click the chart and select ‘Chart Type’. Change to ‘XY (scatter)’ if it isn’t already selected 6. Now add the new data line 7. Right click the new data line and select ‘Format Data Series’. On the patterns tab, you can match the line type to the other nationwide line so they both look the same. The Nationwide data will look like it is one continuous line switching from quarters to months (but it will be shown twice on your key) Come back to me if this wasn’t clear I've put you on speed-dial under "Excel Help desk" Obviously I must read the manual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Concrete Jungle Posted August 28, 2008 Report Share Posted August 28, 2008 The pathetic attempts to put a positive spin on the figures sums up this joke of a government perfectly. I wonder what the bovine excrement being fed to the masses in 12 months will be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ologhai Posted August 28, 2008 Report Share Posted August 28, 2008 I think this is the biggest monthly fall EVER* *(NSA, on the 1991 – present monthly spreadsheet) If we're talking not seasonally adjusted, then this month's 2.75% isn't the biggest drop ever: that's this May's unadjusted 2.78%! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ziknik Posted August 28, 2008 Report Share Posted August 28, 2008 If we're talking not seasonally adjusted, then this month's 2.75% isn't the biggest drop ever: that's this May's unadjusted 2.78%! Green shoots of recovery? Once the job losses start, May 2008 will look like ‘the-good-old-days’. (Unfortunately, I’ll be unemployed, so I won’t be laughing when it happens). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Concrete Jungle Posted August 28, 2008 Report Share Posted August 28, 2008 She said that prices, that were still higher than five years ago, Well such a well thought out argument has reassured me BBC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ziknik Posted August 28, 2008 Report Share Posted August 28, 2008 Well such a well thought out argument has reassured me BBC Fionula was on BBC radio earlier. http://news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/today/newsi...000/7585465.stm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted August 28, 2008 Author Report Share Posted August 28, 2008 Fionula was on BBC radio earlier. ... What's wrong with her really? Why the spin? 'Crash & burn' is what she should be telling us. Video on front page Bloomberg now. Here the Chart from the BBC article: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted August 28, 2008 Report Share Posted August 28, 2008 http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Aug_2008.pdf That's quite a rapid movement down ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ziknik Posted August 28, 2008 Report Share Posted August 28, 2008 What's wrong with her really? Why the spin? 'Crash & burn' is what she should be telling us. Video on front page Bloomberg now. Here the Chart from the BBC article: Nationwide and Fionula need to start thinking about their credibility. The more I hear their horse **** the less likely I am to trust them with my money. There’s a better version of the BBC chart at GHPC http://forum.globalhousepricecrash.com/ind...st&p=355891 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted August 28, 2008 Report Share Posted August 28, 2008 It's OK, "it's only a number" :lol: U.K. House Prices Have Biggest Annual Decline Since 1990, Nationwide Says http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted August 28, 2008 Report Share Posted August 28, 2008 I see he used my favourite skier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted August 28, 2008 Author Report Share Posted August 28, 2008 It's OK, "it's only a number" :lol: ... Yeah, right. That also made me wonder about her intentions. Says the BTLer: "Hey, my negative equity is -£200,000. But, dude, that's just a number." Skiing chart cracks me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted August 28, 2008 Report Share Posted August 28, 2008 Fionnuala Earley on SKY Enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ologhai Posted August 28, 2008 Report Share Posted August 28, 2008 Here's a little chart that attempts to gauge house affordability over the last two or three bubbles... The Green Line is the familiar Real (as in not nominal) House Price plot. That does make the recent bubble look like a biggie. But obviously that doesn't necessarily represent affordability all that well. As the UK government got so fond of asserting before the summer recess, 'it's different this time'... Interest rates are certainly lower which has its effect on mortgage repayments, as the Red Line shows. That's a plot of mortgage repayments (assuming 100% LTV) based on real house prices AND the LIBOR rate. As you can see, that would appear to make the real monthly cost of repaying an average mortgage higher back in 1989, even though the real house prices were lower back then. Just as a quick add on, there's a plot of the LIBOR rate (the Blue Line). You'll have to forgive that it doesn't have its own Y-axis as I ran out of Y-axes! But it gives a rough idea of the relative LIBOR rates over the years. Because of the lack of an associated axis, I'll tell you that the LIBOR rates range between 3.93% and 15.41%. Despite the fact that it would seem that houses were more affordable at the close of 2007 than they were 18 years before, that hasn't stopped house prices apparently dropping much faster, as we've seen from today's figures. Any thoughts gratefully received! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted August 28, 2008 Author Report Share Posted August 28, 2008 ... Any thoughts gratefully received! Very nice chart. I have seen similar ones before. There are two problematic issues: (1) LTV is important. E.g. I think leverage was higher in this boom. (2) The spread between LIBOR and the mortgage rates is important. E.g. as far as I know it is wider now than 1-2 years ago. It's difficult to get reliable data for longer time intervals on LTVs and the spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ziknik Posted August 28, 2008 Report Share Posted August 28, 2008 SNIP Any thoughts gratefully received! It’s almost impossible to create a true affordability index. Your index is as good as anyone else’s, on the grounds that you have stated all your assumptions (and sources). There are other complications if you want to consider them: ** Average earnings index is growing faster than inflation ** MIRAS ** Number of people working per house hold ** (Higher) taxes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dietcolaaddict Posted August 28, 2008 Report Share Posted August 28, 2008 A great day for UK property bears..... (denial phase amongst the sheeple must be about to end soon) Enjoy with a celebratory glass of wine tonight: http://uk.news.yahoo.com/rtrs/20080828/tuk...my-fa6b408.html http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/art...ears/article.do Here's the nationwide house price: gold ratio for the UK. Now at 383.5 for the average house, from a peak of 695.4 (44.9 % drop). Anyone care to suggest how far this ratio may fall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!) Posted August 28, 2008 Report Share Posted August 28, 2008 A great day for UK property bears..... (denial phase amongst the sheeple must be about to end soon) Enjoy with a celebratory glass of wine tonight: http://uk.news.yahoo.com/rtrs/20080828/tuk...my-fa6b408.html http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/art...ears/article.do Here's the nationwide house price: gold ratio for the UK. Now at 383.5 for the average house, from a peak of 695.4 (44.9 % drop). Anyone care to suggest how far this ratio may fall? just a stab in the dark - 100 ounces you cant go wrong with bricks and mortar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!) Posted August 28, 2008 Report Share Posted August 28, 2008 http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/art...ears/article.do Nicholas Leeming, a director at online agents propertyfinder.com, said: "August was exceptionally quiet and July was also very quiet. There is likely to be an early shut down of the market for Christmas, so November will be dead as well as December. In any down period the quiet times come early." they have broke up already then - hope they had a good party now that the term credit crunch can be understood by the populace is there any chance of getting the word malinvestment out in the open Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerpy Posted August 28, 2008 Report Share Posted August 28, 2008 Nationwide and Fionula need to start thinking about their credibility. The more I hear their horse **** the less likely I am to trust them with my money. There’s a better version of the BBC chart at GHPC http://forum.globalhousepricecrash.com/ind...st&p=355891 To be fair to her, some of her past hints have been erring on the side of caution. http://www.tiscali.co.uk/news/newswire.php...y_template.html Nevertheless, she warned that buyers should be wary of stretching themselves to get on the housing ladder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dietcolaaddict Posted August 28, 2008 Report Share Posted August 28, 2008 Yes, I eyeball between 100-200. The all time low is 80.6 (Q1 1983). The Gold : Number of UK Estate Agents ratio will certainly reach an all time high! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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