UK House prices: News & Views

[Meralti]

 

Seems that you've done OK for yourself over the years, mind if I ask how did you do it?

 

 

John, no, I don't mind but I'll limit what I publish on a public discussion board and be a little less emotional.

 

Grew up in Northern England, rural location but close enough to the the old industial heartland to have seen the effects of the deindustrialisation in the 80s first hand and have that influence my outlook regarding employment/career/pre-80s jobs for life culture/welfare a lot.

 

Was made redundant from my first real job, after about a year, in the last real recession (early 90s) moved to Europe and lived and worked there for 6/7 years, learned languages had relationships (with girls). This influenced me a lot regarding attitudes to work/employment/governmental models (welfarism and entitlement) and politics. Moved back to UK at end of the 90's to do a Masters degree (old industrial city), full grants were still available then, I got one of last I think.

 

Since then worked in the South East. Wife stays a home most of the time - this suits us while the kids are still young.

 

I think this country is badly and at it's core, dishonestly, governed; and has been for several decades but it got a lot worse under Bliar/Brown - the majority are being sold down the river.

 

Specifically: Badly governed for a few decades, dishonestly since Bliar/Brown

 

I suspect this includes both of us (unless you're a secret BTL investor, then you'll slot nicely into the protected group). When I have time to be I get quite annoyed about it.

 

BTW, many countries in Europe are in worse state.

[drbubb]

Nice bit on HPC about this

 

"it doesn't tackle the real issue that the western economic model no longer delivers on it's promise of rising living standards "

 

Yes I think living standards will fall further before things improve, but not as far back as even 20 years ago, let alone the 70's. (Also agree with KA's points).

Yes. indeed.

I find it very curious that BTL-Speculators expect the market to go on delivering returns above interest rates,

when Real Incomes are falling, and the economy is beginning to falter.

 

If they had any sense, they would be EXITING IN A HURRY

[John Doe]

John, no, I don't mind but I'll limit what I publish on a public discussion board and be a little less emotional.

 

Grew up in Northern England, rural location but close enough to the the old industial heartland to have seen the effects of the deindustrialisation in the 80s first hand and have that influence my outlook regarding employment/career/pre-80s jobs for life culture/welfare a lot.

 

Was made redundant from my first real job, after about a year, in the last real recession (early 90s) moved to Europe and lived and worked there for 6/7 years, learned languages had relationships (with girls). This influenced me a lot regarding attitudes to work/employment/governmental models (welfarism and entitlement) and politics. Moved back to UK at end of the 90's to do a Masters degree (old industrial city), full grants were still available then, I got one of last I think.

 

Since then worked in the South East. Wife stays a home most of the time - this suits us while the kids are still young.

 

I think this country is badly and at it's core, dishonestly, governed; and has been for several decades but it got a lot worse under Bliar/Brown - the majority are being sold down the river.

 

Specifically: Badly governed for a few decades, dishonestly since Bliar/Brown

 

I suspect this includes both of us (unless you're a secret BTL investor, then you'll slot nicely into the protected group). When I have time to be I get quite annoyed about it.

 

BTW, many countries in Europe are in worse state.

 

Thanks for the info Meralti, I know what you mean about info on public boards etc, I edited mine down a bit (although I didn't think I was being emotional, I would have used angry faces if I had been ).

 

No I'm not a secret BTL'er (sometimes wish I had been 15 years ago mind ) and think that is another sector that needs serious reform/regulation (more rights for tenants etc).

 

Totally agree about bad governance etc, but I still believe many go into politics for the right reasons, just the system no longer enables anyone but the top few to dictate policy and the rest have then to adhere to it, if they want to keep/advance their career that is. Also seems that this trait is learnt from a young age, as if you don't follow the party line from your first internship, you aint getting anywhere in politics.

 

This is a big part of the problem too, and I think all those wishing to stand for election should have at least 5 years real work experience, NOT gained in politics.

 

I used to be totally capitalist (strange really, considering my past) but the older I get, TBH, the more I'm thinking it is so skewed to the 1% that a little bit more socialism wouldn't hurt (not too much mind ).

 

I would happily accept a reduction in living standards if the quality of life improved.

 

Like if health and education services etc improved massively and job security was reintroduced with the goal (dream perhaps) of full employment again, like there used to be.

 

You know, before it somehow became acceptable to have millions and millions of people not working Actually that does make me emotional/angry How the f*k did that happen?

 

Anyway, moving on.....I'd be interested about hearing you views from your experiences abroad. i.e. what are the best (and worst) bits about the systems in the countries you worked in when abroad?

[John Doe]

Yes. indeed.

I find it very curious that BTL-Speculators expect the market to go on delivering returns above interest rates,

when Real Incomes are falling, and the economy is beginning to falter.

 

If they had any sense, they would be EXITING IN A HURRY

 

Depends how you look at it.

 

With inflation falling and now wages almost catching up, crazy low long term fix rates (and likely to get lower soon), and yields of 6-7%, then even if they subsidise the renter for several years, the return they will get once the mortgage is paid off will likely be a better return than available from equivalent payments into a private pension over that period.

 

Example (please pick apart, as I’m almost convincing myself to sell the house and get a couple of BTL's ).

 

I pay ~£10k per year into my pension.

After 25 years (£250K pot) I will get a return of ~ £10k per year

 

OR

 

Even if I have to pay £2K per year subsidising someone renting a flat I bought at £10k per year. Rents rise over the years, so after say 10 years no more subsidy.

After 25 years (i.e. 10 years of subsidies so a £20K pot) and the mortgage is paid off (Even if rents don't rise, then 25 years at 2K put in by me = £50K pot) and an income of £10K per year (after accounting for £2k PA maintanence etc).

 

Although I don't agree with it (AFAIC, it needs serious regulation changes, and far more rights for renters), I can see why some do it.

 

(Of course, if your expecting total financial meltdown, then yes, it would be better to sell then wait for the prices/interest rates to drop further, blooody speculators ).

[John Doe]

Or maybe the real point of a bank is to do something else entirely. See a problem here?

 

Just re-read and saw the link! FFS!

 

What I see a possible solution to the mess the world is in today.

 

I’m all for getting higher rewards for working hard, but no single person should be able to amass anything like some of these, it’s obscene.

 

Tax these ignorant ba**ads, and tax them hard (in fact, even a small amount would solve s**t loads of problems).

 

Time for a global tax agreement aimed at these super rich. When individuals are wealthier (and seemingly more powerful) than nation states, it's time to do something and bring them back to reality.

 

This is absolutely astounding, I knew there was a lot of super rich in the world, but FFS, this is beyond belief!

 

Makes the case for higher taxes for the rich (and the introduction of a minimum tax rate that MUST be paid, before the accountants start playing their games) pretty indisputable IMHO. I've said many times before, "just how many millions does one person need"? I should have been saying "just how many billions does one person need"!

 

More here (where they point out the figures do NOT include their assets like gold, property etc etc) FFS!

 

The study estimating the extent of global private financial wealth held in offshore accounts - excluding non-financial assets such as real estate, gold, yachts and racehorses - puts the sum at between $21 and $32 trillion.

 

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/super-rich-hold-32-trillion-122808711.html;_ylt=AldXvyu__ncLfkuzmG0gAzDSr7FG;_ylu=X3oDMTNzaGNiMnE3BG1pdANGUCBUb3AgU3RvcnkgUmlnaHQEcGtnAzQ0ZTYxNjJhLTlkMGQtMzFjZC1iZTI1LTc2NTUzNjE1MTc3OARwb3MDMQRzZWMDdG9wX3N0b3J5BHZlcgM0NGQ5MjE2MC1kM2ZlLTExZTEtYmZmOS1mZDI1YzczM2FkN2Q-;_ylg=X3oDMTFpYnVpbmRoBGludGwDZ2IEbGFuZwNlbi1nYgRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25z;_ylv=3

 

This should probably have a thread of it's own Meralti.

[John Doe]

Timing Blair....

 

"In respect of the economy, yes, of course, everybody who was in power in the period bears a certain responsibility," he told Sky News' Dermot Murnaghan.

 

"On the other hand I think what happened, and this is really important for people to understand, this global financial crisis was the product of a whole new way that the financial and banking sector has been working in this past 20 or 30 years.

 

"(It is) where you have got this deep integration of the global economy and where you have a lot of financial instruments that were created whose impact people didn't properly understand."

 

Asked if that meant Labour did not fully understand it while he was in power, Mr Blair replied: "No, we didn't."

 

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/blair-admits-responsiblity-economy-132216809.html

 

Better late than never, now how about starting to put it right with a call for a global minimum tax deal and a clampdown on the private banks enabling such massive tax evasion.

[Meralti]

Thanks for the info Meralti, I know what you mean about info on public boards etc, I edited mine down a bit (although I didn't think I was being emotional, I would have used angry faces if I had been ).

 

No I'm not a secret BTL'er (sometimes wish I had been 15 years ago mind ) and think that is another sector that needs serious reform/regulation (more rights for tenants etc).

 

Totally agree about bad governance etc, but I still believe many go into politics for the right reasons, just the system no longer enables anyone but the top few to dictate policy and the rest have then to adhere to it, if they want to keep/advance their career that is. Also seems that this trait is learnt from a young age, as if you don't follow the party line from your first internship, you aint getting anywhere in politics.

 

This is a big part of the problem too, and I think all those wishing to stand for election should have at least 5 years real work experience, NOT gained in politics.

 

I used to be totally capitalist (strange really, considering my past) but the older I get, TBH, the more I'm thinking it is so skewed to the 1% that a little bit more socialism wouldn't hurt (not too much mind ).

 

I would happily accept a reduction in living standards if the quality of life improved.

 

Like if health and education services etc improved massively and job security was reintroduced with the goal (dream perhaps) of full employment again, like there used to be.

 

You know, before it somehow became acceptable to have millions and millions of people not working Actually that does make me emotional/angry How the f*k did that happen?

 

Anyway, moving on.....I'd be interested about hearing you views from your experiences abroad. i.e. what are the best (and worst) bits about the systems in the countries you worked in when abroad?

 

I don't think socialism is the answer - haven't we been there and seen it fail. I think the problem is lack of capitalism - the rules aren't being applied to those in the protected groups and the those outside are being hung out to dry. There comes a time when the parasite has to cut out. If we'd let the banks fail in 2008/2009 we would be in this mess.

[Meralti]

Just re-read and saw the link! FFS!

 

What I see a possible solution to the mess the world is in today.

 

I’m all for getting higher rewards for working hard, but no single person should be able to amass anything like some of these, it’s obscene.

 

Tax these ignorant ba**ads, and tax them hard (in fact, even a small amount would solve s**t loads of problems).

 

Time for a global tax agreement aimed at these super rich. When individuals are wealthier (and seemingly more powerful) than nation states, it's time to do something and bring them back to reality.

 

This is absolutely astounding, I knew there was a lot of super rich in the world, but FFS, this is beyond belief!

 

Makes the case for higher taxes for the rich (and the introduction of a minimum tax rate that MUST be paid, before the accountants start playing their games) pretty indisputable IMHO. I've said many times before, "just how many millions does one person need"? I should have been saying "just how many billions does one person need"!

 

More here (where they point out the figures do NOT include their assets like gold, property etc etc) FFS!

 

 

 

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/super-rich-hold-32-trillion-122808711.html;_ylt=AldXvyu__ncLfkuzmG0gAzDSr7FG;_ylu=X3oDMTNzaGNiMnE3BG1pdANGUCBUb3AgU3RvcnkgUmlnaHQEcGtnAzQ0ZTYxNjJhLTlkMGQtMzFjZC1iZTI1LTc2NTUzNjE1MTc3OARwb3MDMQRzZWMDdG9wX3N0b3J5BHZlcgM0NGQ5MjE2MC1kM2ZlLTExZTEtYmZmOS1mZDI1YzczM2FkN2Q-;_ylg=X3oDMTFpYnVpbmRoBGludGwDZ2IEbGFuZwNlbi1nYgRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25z;_ylv=3

 

This should probably have a thread of it's own Meralti.

 

I intend to start one but want it to be broader than just this incident.

[Jake]

To be fair, from what I've read of his posts, Jake is no fan of the UK (TBH I don't think I've ever seen him say a good thing about it ).

 

 

 

How about this then?

 

 

You obviously haven't read many of my posts. Disillusioned idealist re England is probably the best analysis.

 

Here you go:

 

JERUSALEM (from 'Milton')

 

by: William Blake (1757-1827)

 

ND did those feet in ancient time

Walk upon England's mountains green?

And was the holy Lamb of God

On England's pleasant pastures seen?

 

And did the Countenance Divine

Shine forth upon our clouded hills?

And was Jerusalem builded here

Among these dark Satanic Mills?

 

Bring me my bow of burning gold!

Bring me my arrows of desire!

Bring me my spear! O clouds, unfold!

Bring me my chariot of fire!

 

I will not cease from mental fight,

Nor shall my sword sleep in my hand,

Till we have built Jerusalem

In England's green and pleasant land.

 

 

You said ''I got slated here once for suggesting things were nowhere near as bad today as they were in the 70's, but I'll say it again, they're not, not by a long way.

 

It was horrific back then, the country was ripping itself apart - IMF bailouts, open battles on the streets (with hard working family men, not just ar**hole kids like now), electrical blackouts all the time, 3 day weeks, unions Vs state etc, hell there was nearly a coup! - and practically everyone went into that crisis period relatively poor.

 

Yes of course there were different problems and causes of those problems, but the effects were worse than we are seeing now and the country pulled out of it then, and it will come through this now.

 

It will take time, but it's been a hell of a boom and the vast majority are still way way better off now than equivalent families were 40 (even 20) years back.

 

There are also positives coming out at the moment, the public is paying down debt, slowly, but surely, inflation is falling and the number of people working is increasing even as the public sector is laying of 100's of thousands (although to be fair it's anyone’s guess as to how long that continues) and house prices are becoming more affordable in most of the country. ''

 

 

The difference with the 70's and now, as you said, is that we 'pulled ourselves out if it', well with the help of some cheap reliable oil we did. Those days are over-at least in the future they are. The country is now loaded to the teeth with debt-but so is the rest of the Western world-and the future looks...a bit grim to say the least. The public is scrambling to pay down debt and tat will hit the economy badly. Affordability, hmmm. Families are not better off than 40/20 years ago. But we feel we are, with all our toys purchased with credit.

I would save your optimism for a few years. And I'll save my pessimism.

Still this has been a good year for the UK. Wedding, Jubilee and the Olympics-personally I'm milking it for all it is worth. But really the UK is a patient waiting to shit their pants... Which is a shame, but there we go. It's the same here tbh. What can you do but

[John Doe]

How about this then?You obviously haven't read many of my posts. Disillusioned idealist re England is probably the best analysis.

 

Yes that's actually a much better description.

 

I’m a bit disillusioned myself to be honest, but about all countries, not just ours, which gives me hope that the PTB will eventually pull their fingers out and do something, before we start having revolutions (especially after the latest revelations about the multi trillion dollar hoards of the super rich).

 

 

It's the same here tbh. What can you do but

 

Indeed, it'll be what it will be.....

 

 

[Meralti]

However, whilst things are obviously not good, I don't think we should all just put up our hands and give up (not that you are saying this).

 

I got slated here once for suggesting things were nowhere near as bad today as they were in the 70's, but I'll say it again, they're not, not by a long way.

 

It was horrific back then, the country was ripping itself apart - IMF bailouts, open battles on the streets (with hard working family men, not just ar**hole kids like now), electrical blackouts all the time, 3 day weeks, unions Vs state etc, hell there was nearly a coup! - and practically everyone went into that crisis period relatively poor.

 

 

Couldn't resist this one.

 

Recession may be even worse than the 1970s with figures set to show the economy shrank for third quarter in a row

 

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-2177254/Recession-worse-1970s-figures-set-economy-shrank-quarter-row.html?ito=feeds-newsxml

[John Doe]

Couldn't resist this one.

 

 

 

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-2177254/Recession-worse-1970s-figures-set-economy-shrank-quarter-row.html?ito=feeds-newsxml

 

Yeah, saw that earlier and thought Doh!

 

However, it did go on to say (and after all, it's all about the effects people feel, rather than the headline numbers, which are just relative after all )......

 

Vicky Pryce, City economist and former head of the Government economic service. ‘But you don’t see the effects now as much as you did then, because we no longer have huge industrial complexes shutting down.’

 

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/news/article-2177254/Recession-worse-1970s-figures-set-economy-shrank-quarter-row.html#ixzz21TfJlxVk

[drbubb]

Mortgage approvals slump to a 15-year low as property purchases dive by a fifth

 

24 July 2012 |

 

Mortgage approvals for house purchases fell to the lowest level for at least 15 years last month while house purchase approvals have dropped by a fifth compared to this time last year, statistics have revealed today.

 

There were 51,610 mortgage approvals in June worth £6.5billion according to the British Bankers’ Association (BBA) figures - this is the lowest number of approvals it has on its records which stretch back to September 1997.

 

Of these approvals, there were 26,269 agreements for house transactions worth a total of £4.2billion which represents a 41-month low - and these are down 20.5 per cent compared to this time last year.

. . .

Lenders had also been tightening their borrowing criteria in recent months and raising rates for new borrowers and more than a million existing ones, blaming the weak economy and increased costs of funding a mortgage.

 

The Bank of England expects borrowers with lower deposits to have a particularly tough time taking out a mortgage in the coming months.

 

However, the effects are hoped to be offset by the launch of its new funding for lending scheme aimed at pushing £80bn through to mortgage borrowers and businesses.

 

Howard Archer of IHS Global Insight, says that rather than public holidays and wet weather, the weak performance is down to the stamp duty holiday ending.

 

Read more: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-2178225/BBA-mortgage-approvals-slumped-15-year-low-June.html#ixzz21XvdAZW2

 

Just as REALITY was beginning to settle in, the BofE wants to distort it:

"the effects are hoped to be offset by the launch of its new funding for lending scheme aimed at pushing £80bn through to mortgage borrowers."

[Chartered Surveyor]

July 2012 will be worse. If figures come out stating otherwise then that will be a lie, and Im in prime/west Londn to.

[drbubb]

How much worse?

 

The BIG DIVE in Rightmove figures, usually comes in August.

We may have seen it a month early this year, or August could be really bad

[chazza]

How much worse?

 

The BIG DIVE in Rightmove figures, usually comes in August.

We may have seen it a month early this year, or August could be really bad

 

shocking UK GDP figures. -0.7% vs -0.2 expected

[drbubb]

shocking UK GDP figures. -0.7% vs -0.2 expected

Bigger slowdown coming (in GDP) as Olympics hits

[Van]

Osbourne's deficit elimination plans are going to be left in tatters by these GDP numbers.

 

It's reasonable to suggest that we have been in recession since Q4 2010 when you consider than 4 of the last 6 quarters have now been negative.

 

Think I'll hold on to my gold...

[neil324]

Shocking GDP print given the amount of QE and rates on the floor. Construction taking the brunt I see. I guess we will see plenty more QE and maybe a rate cut to boot.

 

I wonder if they have thought about a mass house building program. I guess they are worried about asset values.

 

Still I suppose it's price worth paying, as long as it's not yourself paying. Did I see a post on here about morality

 

 

[John Doe]

Bigger slowdown coming (in GDP) as Olympics hits

 

Grim.

 

Then again, GDP figures take account of (fiddled) inflation. Wages don't. If a fair bit of your GDP is derived from wages, then wouldn't you expect a fall if wages aren't keeping up with inflation?

 

Honest question.

[drbubb]

'Few signs' of house price rebound, says Nationwide

 

 

House prices have recorded their weakest annual growth in nearly

three years amid the "challenging" economy, the Nationwide said today.

 

Prices slipped 1.5% year-on-year in June to £165,738 on average, the biggest fall since August 2009, according to the building society's latest house price index.

 

The study suggested the decline, which also showed a 0.6% month-on-month decrease, was partly due to the ending of a stamp duty

 

Actually,

That was JUNE - one month ago.

 

JULY should be out soon

[John Doe]

I don't think socialism is the answer - haven't we been there and seen it fail.

 

Nor I, but I've seen capitalism fail for the same reasons, the greed and selfishness of people who screw the system (whichever it is) for their own benefit (including the interventions in the "free market" which after all protects them the most).

 

I think the problem is lack of capitalism - the rules aren't being applied to those in the protected groups and the those outside are being hung out to dry. There comes a time when the parasite has to cut out. If we'd let the banks fail in 2008/2009 we would be in this mess.

 

The thing is, not everyone has the drive/ambition to work hard and get to the top. Many just want to do a fair days work for a fair days pay and be able to look after their family without the constant threat of redundancy and ever reducing wages, pensions etc etc.

 

Those with the drive to get to the top often seem to forget this (perhaps they never realised it?) and seem to expect everyone to think like them?

 

So, I guess if you take the best bits of both, with solid, unbreakable rules to contain the excesses of those that seek to twist the rules, then perhaps there would be a better system?

 

However, I haven't a clue how you can get any real change while those capble of producing it are the ones with the most to lose.

[Van]

Nor I, but I've seen capitalism fail for the same reasons, the greed and selfishness of people who screw the system (whichever it is) for their own benefit (including the interventions in the "free market" which after all protects them the most).

 

 

But That is NOT capitalism.

 

 

True Capitalism relies on a laissez faire approach between willing parties - voluntary, uncoerced exchange of private property for mutual benefit. That's all capitalism is.

 

The political and monetary system in most "capitalist" countries is still nearer to fascism that true capitalism.

[John Doe]

But That is NOT capitalism.

 

 

True Capitalism relies on a laissez faire approach between willing parties - voluntary, uncoerced exchange of private property for mutual benefit. That's all capitalism is.

 

The political and monetary system in most "capitalist" countries is still nearer to fascism that true capitalism.

 

Yes, I believe that's what I was saying here....

 

"the greed and selfishness of people who screw the system (whichever it is) for their own benefit (including the interventions in the "free market" which after all protects them the most)".

 

In the same manner, you've never seen True Socialism fail either.

 

True (or pure) capitalism has, to the best of my knowledge, never been tried (allowed) in modern times. As such, I guess it still remains a theory as to whether it would actually work or not in todays society.

 

The trouble with most theories involving people, is that people get in the way.

 

Talking of interventions….

 

ECB will act to save euro, says Mario Draghi

 

The European Central Bank is ready to do "whatever it takes" to support the euro, its president has said.

 

So, considering that there is a s**t-load of money (being held by, amongst others, our beloved FTSE 100 companies) where/what do you think it will flood into once (if) they decide to finally sort this mess (be it ECB printing, Eurobonds, debt relief/jubilees.... etc etc)?

[John Doe]

24 hrs on, and still Merkle and Hollande haven't scuppered Draghi?

 

Could this really be the start of the turning?

 

(Still think this could be THE most significant announcement of the EU crisis so far)

 

Amazed there is so little coverage.

 

As for myself, went long yesterday, and plan to stay that way (for the next few days at least, as not so sure the'll keep the show going longer than a few days ).