freekb Posted January 3, 2013 Report Share Posted January 3, 2013 I don't think the UK has the luxury, or cushion, Japan has had with all her savings. So I don't see the UK being able to " pull the same tricks for decades". How long can QE continue to make a difference? What happens when QE comes to a halt? This is when I expect London house prices to unwind, and with it the UK as a whole. When? Probably within 3 years. It's a timebomb. Japan and UK savings rates aren't all that different it seems (hard to compare, net vs. gross). See http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/household-saving-rates-forecasts-2012-1_hssv-gr-table-2012-1-en;jsessionid=3htil9du4i7j.x-oecd-live-01 3 years. Any data to support that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Posted January 3, 2013 Report Share Posted January 3, 2013 Japan and UK savings rates aren't all that different it seems (hard to compare, net vs. gross). See http://www.oecd-ilib....x-oecd-live-01 3 years. Any data to support that? I said, though it wasn't clear, ''Japan has had'' not ''has''. This was 2 years ago and savings were just under 20% of income. The Japanese had a hardcore savings mentality. Nowadays the svaings rate has plummeted. The British had a spending mentality. Why bother 'save' when house price inflation did the job for you? Now the British are trying to pay down their debts like crazy. '3 years' any data?...no I'm afraid I haven't. Just my gut feeling. You might like to have a look at real prices rather than nominal. Shrelnyx has some great charts. http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/UKHousePrices01.php Click on an area an see the damage to UK house prices, including areas within London, in gold. I think gold could still be a very good place to wait for house prices to fall further, rather than nominal GBP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueNorth Posted January 3, 2013 Report Share Posted January 3, 2013 Catching up here reminded me, how well did the pundits fare in their 2012 house price predictions? I went to look for the story I recalled on the bbc news site, which I found here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16288438 What does it say that there is no analogous bbc story for 2013 predictions? (there's one on the Telegraph site) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 4, 2013 Report Share Posted January 4, 2013 AboutProperty: Over 300,000 property millionaires in UK Property millionaires were the biggest winners of 2012, despite the difficulties of an economic recession and stagnant property market. Price rises at the top end of the market helped create 47,024 new British property millionaires. That brings the total number to just over 300,142, a big increase on last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 4, 2013 Report Share Posted January 4, 2013 Demographics... Many (smart) retiring boomers will leave London. I have friends who are selling in Chiswick to buy a new house at less than half the price in Chichester. As more and more do that, the price differentials will narrow, I reckon Too many old people; not enough young people to buy their overpriced cr*p Telegraph: Demographic timebomb puts paid to hopes of house price revival Most households continue to believe that, in time, the UK property market will recover, and that, given even more time, we will eventually return to the easy property gains of recent decades. This belief may, in turn, be one of the reasons why housing transactions remain so depressed, at roughly half their pre-crisis high and some 35pc below their 20-year average; those who might sell hold back because they think that if they wait long enough, peak 2007 prices will again return. . . . In London, prices are continuing to rise quite strongly, particularly in the posher, central locations favoured by rich foreigners. For London as a whole, prices are already back above their pre-crisis peak, and, in certain areas, prices are again rising at rates well above that of ordinary price inflation. Where London leads, the rest of the country has traditionally followed, with a one to two-year lag. Regrettably, this may not be true this time around. The London housing market is sustained as much by foreign interest as anything else. Chuck in an acute shortage of the sort of properties people want to live in, together with a strong economy relative to the rest of the country, and it’s easy to see why prices in the capital are bucking the trend. One leading international estate agent recently told me that about 60pc of all new-build apartments in London are now sold to foreign investors. As one of the great global cities, London may now be almost wholly decoupled from much of the rest of Britain. Indeed, compared with a number of other global cities, London continues to look quite cheap. === So wealthy foreigners are the "greater fools" that are always sought? (But for how much longer?) "...compared with a number of other global cities, London continues to look quite cheap." NO, it doesn't ! That's simply not true. It's Estate agent talk: is complete bullcrap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 4, 2013 Report Share Posted January 4, 2013 Construction sector dips to six month low in December Thursday, 03 January 2013 01:38 Activity in the UK construction sector declined to a six-month low as housing activity fell sharply. The purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 48.7 in December down from 49.3 in November against economists expectations of a reading of 49.5. A reading of below 50.0 indicates a fall in activity in the sector. This is the fourth time in five months that the PMI was below 50.0. The data shows that the construction sector shrank in two of the final three months of 2012, adding to the likelihood that the overall economy shrank in the final quarter of 2012. Hopes are pinned on a good set of numbers when December's figures for the dominant service sector are unveiled tomorrow. The construction sector accounts for just seven per cent of the overall UK economy but its poor performance in 2012 was one of the main factors that pushed the economy into a double-dip recession. The report revealed that December saw the sharpest drop in construction output since June 2012 and housing activity fell at its fastest pace for two years and there was an accelerated drop in new work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 4, 2013 Report Share Posted January 4, 2013 I don't get it : Why don't these people DOWN-SIZE or move somewhere cheaper ? Why should taxpayers help out house-hoarders, and irresponsible breeders ?? ========== Nearly eight million people in Britain are struggling to keep up with mortgage or rent payments each month, according to the charity Shelter. A total of 1.4 million have already fallen behind, with almost a million people resorting to high-interest so-called 'pay day' loans to make ends meet. "It's shocking to think that so many families will be starting the New Year with a huge weight hanging over them, trapped in a daily struggle to keep their home," said the charity's chief executive Campbell Robb. "Payday loans may seem like a quick fix, but the huge interest charges mean things can quickly spiral out of control. === /source: HPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 4, 2013 Report Share Posted January 4, 2013 Jonathan Davis in the Media : http://jonathandavis...an-davis-media/ Featured NI house prices are down 55% since peak in 2007BBC Radio Ulster - The Nolan Show with William CrawleyNovember 22, 2012 Debate on freedom of speechBBC Radio 2 - The Jeremy Vine ShowOctober 12, 2012 Economics Review 2011Talksport Radio - The Mike Graham ShowDecember 29, 2011 House prices: Will they fall or rise in 2012?BBC NewsDecember 28, 2011 ================ Property price predictions 2012 • Ray Boulger - down 4%• Bernard Clarke - "a broadly flat market"• Jonathan Davis - down 10% • Martin Ellis - "unchanged plus or minus 2%"• Robert Gardner - "flat to modestly lower"• Henry Pryor - down 10%• Simon Rubinsohn - down 3%• Ed Stansfield - down 5% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Posted January 4, 2013 Report Share Posted January 4, 2013 So wealthy foreigners are the "greater fools" that are always sought? (But for how much longer?) "...compared with a number of other global cities, London continues to look quite cheap." NO, it doesn't ! That's simply not true. It's Estate agent talk: is complete bullcrap. London may not look quite cheap (except in foreign currency it has become cheaper) but London is a whole load of things that other cities are not. It is the English capital of the world retaining all the cultural and historical nuances that make the world love it. Tradition, Pomp, Radicalism, Radio 4. It is in Europe, connected to Paris in 3 hours. Foreigners will feel more comfortable in London having studied and learned our language, compared to the few who can speak German or Spanish or Italian. Everyone learns English. It is the common denominator. Everyone has been there and enjoyed it. Australia is too far away from the rest of the world, too many snakes or spiders, cancerous sunshine. America too dangerous, too many guns and idiots. Canada too cold, too full of nothing. Singapore too hot and sweaty, Hong Kong too Chinese for comfort etcetc..London is beautiful, the music/arts scene are strong, ones kids can pick up the lingo quickly, even the food is getting better. It is still a prettygood financial centre as centers go. Fancy taking the fmily to Shanghai? Er..no ta. If I am super rich what do I care if house prices aren't 'cheap'. These things are irrelevant to the rich. Especially to wives of the rich. They want to be free-or at least have more freedom than they have anyplace else. I know London isnt perfect but its a damn sight better than Moscow or Lagos, Luala Lumpur or Athens, Delhi or Tokyo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 4, 2013 Report Share Posted January 4, 2013 Well, maybe that's true... They sell them an education (with wealthy parents paying.) Then, years later, they sell them a flat But this neat formula may not last forever. Someday, some part of America may get its "act together". Will that come post-breakup perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Posted January 4, 2013 Report Share Posted January 4, 2013 Well, maybe that's true... They sell them an education (with wealthy parents paying.) Then, years later, they sell them a flat But this neat formula may not last forever. Someday, some part of America may get its "act together". Will that come post-breakup perhaps? I think that neat formula will not last, either. But while it does, they are welcome to it. Maybe a crashing, rioting London will have them scurrying away again with losses. Some parts of the US will, I am sure, offer things the UK cannot. Warm weather, a bit of heating oil, plenty of gas, nice wines, plenty of land. But it will always be a long way from Europe for Europeans. Will not America simply be seen to be too dangerous?? Too many religious nutcases, too much racial hatred, too many hicks? I know...there are very good people too, and other countries have their share of troubles, but the US is in another league...at least it seems so from the outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 4, 2013 Report Share Posted January 4, 2013 In the UK: They sell them an education (with wealthy parents paying.) Then, years later, they sell them a flat But this neat formula may not last forever. Someday, some part of America may get its "act together". Will that come post-breakup perhaps? I think that neat formula will not last, either. But while it does, they are welcome to it. Maybe a crashing, rioting London will have them scurrying away again with losses. (yeah. Riots, or just a widespread notion that LONDON PRICES have peaked) Some parts of the US will, I am sure, offer things the UK cannot. Warm weather, a bit of heating oil, plenty of gas, nice wines, plenty of land. But it will always be a long way from Europe for Europeans. Will not America simply be seen to be too dangerous?? Too many religious nutcases, too much racial hatred, too many hicks? I know...there are very good people too, and other countries have their share of troubles, but the US is in another league...at least it seems so from the outside. SF / San Francisco is very popular in Hong Kong, and in China. But I would not invest in California, despite the sunshine. The economic situation is not right IMHO. I favor less popular places, and cheaper ones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Posted January 4, 2013 Report Share Posted January 4, 2013 SF / San Francisco is very popular in Hong Kong, and in China. But I would not invest in California, despite the sunshine. The economic situation is not right IMHO. I favor less popular places, and cheaper ones SF-push up further north? Oregon? Then east, inland? I have no idea of what its like up there. What about Vancouver? Very popular with the Pacific Rim Asians, British and...Ian Gordon. I think Vancouver is your place, Dr. B. Hang the taxes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 4, 2013 Report Share Posted January 4, 2013 SF-push up further north? Oregon? Then east, inland? I have no idea of what its like up there. What about Vancouver? Very popular with the Pacific Rim Asians, British and...Ian Gordon. I think Vancouver is your place, Dr. B. Hang the taxes A bit too pricey for me. How about this? In Davidson, NC: $250,000 BR/BA:3 BR, 2 BA Location: 714 Northeast Dr, Davidson, NC Description: Very private penthouse condominium with wonderful view of lake davidson, enjoy the wildlife, tree's and 600 acre lake,without the crowd's on lake norman. Patricia LaMonica is showing this 3 bedrooms / 2 bathroom condo in Davidson. Call (704) 634-9133 to arrange a viewing. Additional Details: Large front porch view, of davidson park with pond and water fountain. Great community for exercise, and community living. The floors are travertine stone throughout the condominium. All appliances are included. Elevator for easy access.boatslip included Read more: http://realestate.oo.../#ixzz2BSKT82SY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Posted January 4, 2013 Report Share Posted January 4, 2013 Oops! It looks like the listing "714 northeast dr davidson nc 28036" is no longer available! See what else is available or ask your friends and neighbors. Read more: http://realestate.oodle.com/charlotte-nc/#ixzz2H1dPm0g2 Looks like you missed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 4, 2013 Report Share Posted January 4, 2013 It is only an example - there are many more like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Posted January 4, 2013 Report Share Posted January 4, 2013 It is only an example - there are many more like that I know. Houses and land there sooooooooo cheap. Wish it was the UK. WTF went wrong there????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 4, 2013 Report Share Posted January 4, 2013 I know. Houses and land there sooooooooo cheap. Wish it was the UK. WTF went wrong there????? The US let it happen. Rates rose, and the downwards cycle got underway, starting 2006-7. When the downturn started (later) in the UK, the BofE whimped out, and quickly moved to ZIRP, which made it cheaper for property owners to hold on, since it was cheaper to own than to rent. That "saved the day", since the Pound dropped about the same time, and foreigners came in, with enough firepower to hold the London market up. Foreigners have helped in New York, but the USA as a whole is just too big to be saved by foreign capital. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 6, 2013 Report Share Posted January 6, 2013 NATIONWIDE is out - down 0.97 % in Dec. N : : 163,853 D : : 162,262 / Figures in the Press Release are Seasonally adjusted UK house prices little changed in December, continuing the trend evident throughout 2012 Price of a typical home declined by 0.1% in December Overall in 2012 the price of a typical home declined by 1%, reversing the 1% increase recorded in 2011 The typical UK home is now worth £162,262 Within England, the North/South divide in property prices continued to widen View our December Press Release here NO BARGAIN, Big Risk (on rising rates): " Housing still appears relatively expensive on a number of metrics. House prices are still around 5.1 times earnings, above the long term average of 4.2. The monthly mortgage payment on a typical home is currently equal to around 33% of average earnings, close to the twenty year average, even though interest rates are close to all time lows. " Most regions saw price falls during 2012 11 out of 13 UK regions saw annual price falls during 2012 London best performing region in 2012 Northern Ireland continued to see largest price falls Within England, the North/South divide in property prices continued to widen View our Q4 2012 Press Release. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueNorth Posted January 21, 2013 Report Share Posted January 21, 2013 No posts here since the 6th of January, that must be a record. So, are we near a low then, at least in sentiment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 21, 2013 Report Share Posted January 21, 2013 No posts here since the 6th of January, that must be a record. So, are we near a low then, at least in sentiment? A low? More like a High, I reckon... The MOVE UP in Barratt is beginning to look parabolic ... BDEV-chart It is threatening to push above the channel that I indicated above. The implication of a parabolic move is that such moves often end in important Tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueNorth Posted January 21, 2013 Report Share Posted January 21, 2013 Wow at that chart. By low I was thinking low interest = low sentiment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jami dodgers Posted February 1, 2013 Report Share Posted February 1, 2013 You need to define interest I'm very interested in the state of the housing market, because I have ours on the market. We're in a rural location, int the S.W. of the UK and have been on the market since late July 2012 So far 3 veiwings early on, but none since September. Moved from a national agent to a good local agent after the first 12 weeks. Not sure the particular agent makes much difference, as they all admit that 90% of enquiries now come thru' portals like Rightmove (we're listed with 200 portals apparently!!) . 360 hits on the R.M. page but no one's clicking thru' for details or viewings. Dropped the price from £1.5 to £1.375M when we changed agents but it's made buzzer all diference. Tried promoting it in specialist magazines (we have outbuildings with retail and commercial planning consent which would be ideal for a car restoration company or similar), but not one enquiry. Getting desparate now, would drop the price further if I thought it would make a difference. It's not an average house so there are no direct comparables. Local estate agent has said it could take up to two years to sell, but I worry about the train wreck coming down the track at us......I don't think we have 2 years! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 1, 2013 Report Share Posted February 1, 2013 Local estate agent has said it could take up to two years to sell, but I worry about the train wreck coming down the track at us......I don't think we have 2 years! Don't lose heart. That is a ridiculous statement when you think about it. Think about what sort of buyer would want your property, and how to best reach them. We also have our HK property on the market, and I bagged a viewing tomorrow afternoon from someone who knows the building, and wants to add to his/her portfolio of three flats owned in it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van Posted February 1, 2013 Report Share Posted February 1, 2013 Getting desparate now, would drop the price further if I thought it would make a difference. Well of course it will make a difference. lop a million off the asking price and then see the difference it makes. So it's just a question of "how much", really. Typical non-forced sellers' mindset in this market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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