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Jim Sinclair thread (News & Views)

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I cannot believe that there will not be many disappointed Gold owners when they become sure that the target is unreachable.

The next question is this:

Will those who feel disappointed that S forecast is not reached decide to SELL, to take their profits and run?

You seem to fixated on this Sinclair forecast to me. I think you are not crediting owners of gold with much intelligence and think the only reason they have got into gold is because some guy on a website made a forecast. I think pretty well every gold owner is actually completely aware that the reason for buying gold is that it protects their buying power during this fiat currency crisis we are in.

 

I doubt anyone who has been reading Sinclair over the last few years will be disappointed and sell. Jim has given all his readers a very good insight into the working of the financial system and has many times said that if his target doesn't get hit it just means the price will go higher in the long run, which even you seem to agree with.

 

Any Jim Sinclair reading gold owner sold any because his target hasn't been reached on here? I am expecting the stone cold sound of silence.

 

 

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Any Jim Sinclair reading gold owner sold any because his target hasn't been reached on here? I am expecting the stone cold sound of silence.

If this is a poll, I make a start:

 

I bought several times since Sinclair's miss. No net selling at all. :)

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Any Jim Sinclair reading gold owner sold any because his target hasn't been reached on here? I am expecting the stone cold sound of silence.

 

GEI is a tiny microcosm.

 

I bought traded over 100 options contracts* with a Jan.2011 maturity date,

and closed out almost that number of contracts as a part of 90-100 and 95-120 Bull Spreads.

 

These proved nicely profitable for me, since I paid as little as $3.40 and collected close to $10,

when I closed them out.

 

Why "Jan.2011 maturity"?

 

I was very aware of Sinclair's $1650 target and his timing when I put them on.

 

I think all around this big world, there may be hundreds of traders, and 10's of thousands of contracts,

and especially options contracts that might have been influenced by this forecast.

 

*100 options contracts = 1,000 ounces, is worth over $1.3 million face - that's one person.

And that closed down Hedge Fund may be another one

== == ==

 

I think "profit-taking" on Jan. 2011 futures and options contracts, by Sinclair-influenced traders,

can easily explain the 8% price drop that we have seen.

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GEI is a tiny microcosm.

 

I bought traded over 100 options contracts* with a Jan.2011 maturity date,

and closed out almost that number of contracts as a part of 90-100 and 95-120 Bull Spreads.

 

These proved nicely profitable for me, since I paid as little as $3.40 and collected close to $10,

when I closed them out.

 

Why "Jan.2011 maturity"?

 

I was very aware of Sinclair's $1650 target and his timing when I put them on.

 

I think all around this big world, there may be hundreds of traders, and 10's of thousands of contracts,

and especially options contracts that might have been influenced by this forecast.

 

*100 options contracts = 1,000 ounces, is worth over $1.3 million face - that's one person.

And that closed down Hedge Fund may be another one

== == ==

 

I think "profit-taking" on Jan. 2011 futures and options contracts, by Sinclair-influenced traders,

can easily explain the 8% price drop that we have seen.

 

 

...and all the other similar drops we see on a regular yearly+ basis, were they Sinclair's doing too? I find the notion that Sinclair had anything

to do with the latest correction rather unbelievable. I bought some more sovs on Monday.

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...and all the other similar drops we see on a regular yearly+ basis, were they Sinclair's doing too? I find the notion that Sinclair had anything

to do with the latest correction rather unbelievable. I bought some more sovs on Monday.

How is it unbelievable?

Plausible, likely, and even extremely likely that many people who laid on long futures and calls would choose a Jan 2011 maturity date, thanks to this well known forecast,

 

As I have said: I have done this myself for contracts with a face value exceeding $1.3 million, and the sudden reduction of Open Interest suggests others have done the same.

 

Doesnt it make sense to simply "take profits" when those contracts mature, and it is now apparent that the agggressive bulls have "shot too high" in their forecasts ?

 

Instead of this plausible explanation, the Piper's men are inventing all sorts of manipulation theories. Who is speaking the unbelievable here?

 

Furthermore, I forecast both the miss, and the resulting selloff. I think it should be obvious who is making the credible statements here.

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I think it should be obvious who is making the credible statements here.

Hmm, I am also not sure Bubb. Yes, many read Sinclair, but does this mean they really timed a trade after his forecast? I didn't, and I started this thread!

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Hmm, I am also not sure Bubb. Yes, many read Sinclair, but does this mean they really timed a trade after his forecast? I didn't, and I started this thread!

Because you actually read his site and listened to him talk about not using leverage and the fact that the price wasn't set in stone. Anyone using his forecast date to place a leveraged bet via options obviously didn't read or understand much of what he talks about.

 

 

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Because you actually read his site and listened to him talk about not using leverage and the fact that the price wasn't set in stone. Anyone using his forecast date to place a leveraged bet via options obviously didn't read or understand much of what he talks about.

I made money timing my Gold options trade to coincide withe timing of his forecast.

Many who are posting against my idea here do not trade options or future, but rather buy physical gold.

They are two different arenas, so it would be interesting to hear from those who use futures and options.

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So, Sinclair broke his hand a couple of days ago. But then, Norcini is not really posting anymore either, and he has now his own "blogspot".

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So, Sinclair broke his hand a couple of days ago. But then, Norcini is not really posting anymore either, and he has now his own "blogspot".

Which broke first: the hand or the forecast?

 

Perhaps he broke something from pounding so hard on the BUY key on his keyboard.

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Quote from link.

 

The financial system of the entire western world is FUBAR and there is no intention anywhere of fixing the problems at the level of its cause, OTC derivatives. The EU outlawed naked credit default swaps which is a clear comment on their ability to work if put under pressure. This is regardless of whether they were margin or naked in my opinion.

 

To say this is it is to be very late to the game.

 

Realize that the system has already failed.

Realize that there is no champion in a power position with the will to fix it.

Realize that even if there was a true fixer there are absolutely no tools to apply that would not in a short time cause more severe pressure than before applied.

Realize then that there is no PRACTICAL means to get the western world financial economy back on its feet

Realize that since the entire western world financial entities are based in sand there can be no sustainable economic recovery anywhere in that group.

Realize that a third war of any degree is madness.

Realize that our actions in the Middle East will cause increased hatred of the West.

Realize that the problems in the Middle East are not pro West or pro democracy.

Realize that gold is going to some degree make my long term price objective, given you ten years ago, look so low it will be silly.

 

Hold on to your insurance because you need it now. Pity the anti gold hedge funds short gold and gold shares based on, in my opinion, egomania, for they are very short lived now.

 

 

Think for a moment if Armstrong and Alf are right on gold. That would mean the following prices are coming:

 

$1650

$3000

$5000

$12,500

 

Those prices are possible because the balance sheets of the entire western world financial entities are based on false assumptions yielding valuation that pass auditing (FASB) but will never come to fruition. It is the mark to maturity method that not only used the BIS but other institutions that give comfort to the masses that are not looking at self protection here and now.''

 

 

Is that all? 12,500 lousy dollars? I was expecting a far larger windfall under such circumstances. Surely JS is being conservative?

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Quote from link.

 

 

Is that all? 12,500 lousy dollars? I was expecting a far larger windfall under such circumstances. Surely JS is being conservative?

 

$12,500 "lousy dollars" would make me a £ millionaire on my little stash. I would be more thant happy with that!

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Captain Birdseye,

I am hoping for at least 50,000 lousy dollars/ounce. Perhaps double that even. Then I'm gonna put it in my pipe and smoke it. Or my kids will.;-)

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Oh. I see that Sinclair's guru has died: http://www.spiegel.de/panorama/leute/0,1518,758862,00.html

I know others in the trading world who followed Sai Baba.

 

My condolences to all who respected and revered the man. He was a controversial figure, but an inspiration to many.

== == ==

 

If gold breaks $5,000-6,000, it may go to "infinity", as the dollar is destroyed - so pick any number you like. But I do not think we can take that for granted... yet. There are some scenarios (like that of Lindsay Williams, where oil is manipulated up to $200, and then the floodgates of oil discoveries are opened - where that need not happen.)

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$5000 is only a 20-fold increase from the low, within the experience of the 1970s/80s. I don't think $5000 Au is Armageddon. I also think $5k can be reached without a corresponding increase in many (not all) prices.

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$5000 is only a 20-fold increase from the low, within the experience of the 1970s/80s. I don't think $5000 Au is Armageddon. I also think $5k can be reached without a corresponding increase in many (not all) prices.

Yes, if gold continues to appreciate as it has at around 20% annually, it will only take 6 odd years to reach that target. I'll look at buying property around then... not to swap "one asset class for another" but to get on with life.

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Yes, if gold continues to appreciate as it has at around 20% annually, it will only take 6 odd years to reach that target. I'll look at buying property around then... not to swap "one asset class for another" but to get on with life.

Are you not "getting on with your life" already?

I rather think you are.

 

Slays-Clock-of-Life.gif

 

I don't think you are the sort who will let others tell you what to do at a particular age in life. You need to grasp whatever opportunities present themselves, rather than being other-directed with certain episodes laid out on a dictatorial clock.

 

I think zombies slavishly follow those "Life Clocks" that the zeitgeist passes on into our consciousness. Things are in NOW a process of Major Change anyway. And the "stations of the clock" may be meaningless to those who are in tune with the emerging changes. Zombies may be left behind.

 

(If you want to know, I seem to be pushing into the "Pot Belly" stage. Do I really accept that?)

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Are you not "getting on with your life" already?

I rather think you are.

 

Slays-Clock-of-Life.gif

 

I don't think you are the sort who will let others tell you what to do at a particular age in life. You need to grasp whatever opportunities present themselves, rather than being other-directed with certain episodes laid out on a dictatorial clock.

 

I think zombies slavishly follow those "Life Clocks" that the zeitgeist passes on into our consciousness. Things are in NOW a process of Major Change anyway. And the "stations of the clock" may be meaningless to those who are in tune with the emerging changes. Zombies may be left behind.

 

(If you want to know, I seem to be pushing into the "Pot Belly" stage. Do I really accept that?)

Hi Dr Bubb. Yes, getting on with life.... we're all getting on :) ..... certainly moved on from thinking so much about money [no offense intended]... there is a time and place where that is important, especially given the uncertainties of today. I feel with the money thing sorted out well enough, it's time to focus on the simpler things in life. Another phase of "getting on" will no doubt involve the purchase of property, but I reckon that transition will involve less the finer points of macro-economics and more some practical consideration.

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Hey RH, you're back!

Just popping in for a few days. Well done on your trading silver for gold..... you're more a gold bug after all! I reckon there'll be another opportunity to trade the volatility coming up. Commodity spike, crash, then buy.

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Just popping in for a few days. Well done on your trading silver for gold..... you're more a gold bug after all! I reckon there'll be another opportunity to trade the volatility coming up. Commodity spike, crash, then buy.

How is the panning/mining going? Will you be turning into the New Zealand version of a Hillbilly?

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How is the panning/mining going? Will you be turning into the New Zealand version of a Hillbilly?

Well, I don't have any societal hang ups to do with "status anxiety" that's for sure. Though I do prefer the title of "man of leisure". i find nothing is more mind-numbing than dull routine.... so I've decided to punctuate my leisurely life with various jobs as they suit me. Painting for a few days at my sister's for room and board, may go fishing for a few days after that, and with Kiwifruit season arriving might do a few weeks picking... give the old body a workout. You might be pleased to know I'm thinking of earning some of those lovely Yen [they do well in deflation] but that could still be a few months away. :)

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Well, I don't have any societal hang ups to do with "status anxiety" that's for sure. Though I prefer the title of "man of leisure". Nothing is more mind-numbing than dull routine.... so I've decided to do various jobs as it suits me. Painting for a few days at my sister's for room and board, may go fishing for a few days after that, and with Kiwifruit season arriving might do a few weeks picking... give the old body a workout. You might be pleased to know I'm thinking of earning some of those lovely yen [they do well in deflation] but that could still be a few months away. :)

Sounds good.

 

Regarding hang-ups, funnily enough I seem to have one:

 

Wiki:

Hang-Ups is Goldfinger's second album, released September 9, 1997.

...

Goldfinger is a Los Angeles pop punk/ska punk band that formed in 1994.

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