romans holiday Posted October 12, 2012 Report Share Posted October 12, 2012 I think you are absolutly correct, maybe ZSL will be a better choice in a couple of years once silver is at $90-$100 and due a serious retracement. Yes, but the magnitude of that spike when it comes is likely to surprise everyone [not to mention the following correction]. On the previous spike, most traders would have chosen the halfway resting point of 35 to short or sell. It then went on to 50! So we had silver go from 10 to 50 on the last leg... a magnitude of 5. If this leg rhymes with that one then you have silver going from 25 to 125. As is often commented, trades are often ruined by looking for the last 10% or so. A target of 100 for the [medium term] trade looks reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electroweak Posted October 15, 2012 Report Share Posted October 15, 2012 'Contangos' aside, I don't think it is very relevant to compare the oil market to the silver market. Oil is simply a commodity while silver has monetary properties. I've always predicted that the two markets would behave very differently in a [hyper] deflationary environment.... it is probabably easier to see the divergence between gold and oil, silver being so volatile. Questor laments buying the oil ETF, I have so far had some good trading success with the leveraged silver ETF. http://www.greenener...280#entry258441 With all due respect, I am not at all comparing the oil market to the silver market. What I am saying is that ETFs themselves are not good vehicles to use to 'profit on the medium term' as the FORCED ROLLOVERS which the ETF has to accomplish will scupper your profits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted October 15, 2012 Report Share Posted October 15, 2012 With all due respect, I am not at all comparing the oil market to the silver market. What I am saying is that ETFs themselves are not good vehicles to use to 'profit on the medium term' as the FORCED ROLLOVERS which the ETF has to accomplish will scupper your profits. Aren't $Silver and $Gold ETFs? And don't most people who invest in silver or gold buy these ETFs? And haven't they made good profits over the medium term [either realized or on paper]? As for the double silver ETF, I take your point about it being risky in the medium term. Though I do have a medium term position with it, I focus more on trading another position in the short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
callmejoe Posted October 16, 2012 Report Share Posted October 16, 2012 From Bix Weir Last week I sent out an alert to all Private Road Members that Citibank was the NEW SILVER RIGGER on the block. Here was the analysis on how I figured it out (for Private Road Members)… ALERT: Silver Short Hot Potato Being Passed Again! http://www.roadtoroota.com/members/1019.cfm Today comes the shocking news that the CEO and COO of Citibank have ABRUPTLY RESIGNED! Shocker at Citigroup as CEO Vikram Pandit Abruptly Resigns http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/shocker-citigroup-ceo-vikram-pandit-abruptly-resigns-133826852.html It will be impossible for JPM and Citigroup to unwind their silver rigging positions so be ready for the silver take off! We are in the last moments of the MAJOR BATTLE for our freedom. Buckle up for a WILD end of the year! Stay tuned on the Road to Roota for all the action Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted October 17, 2012 Report Share Posted October 17, 2012 I started a New thread around this Call Let's Watch this Silver call for a BUYing Opportunity : SLV Jan.$30 call ... update : Mar$30C Price:Bid/Offer : $2.86 - 2.89 : Mid: $2.88 Volume: 134 / Open Interest : 71,821 SLV/ Silver ... update Note1: $2.88 / $31.93 = xx % Note2: $2.88 / ($31.93-28=$3.93) = xx % ==: Mar13 : Jan13 Hi : $5.40 : $4.90 : Lo.: $1.50 : $1.01 : ======== : ===== Df : $3.90 : $3.89 : Nw: $3.35 : $2.82 : Dp.: $2.05 : $2.08 : 10-Day charts : GLD : UGL : SLV : SlvJ30c : AGQ : USLV : SLW : GDX : GDXJ : GLDX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted October 17, 2012 Report Share Posted October 17, 2012 SLV at 18% of GLD should be a BUY GLD : x18% $170 : $30.60 $168 : $30.24 $166 : $29.88 $164 : $29.52 $162 : $29.16 $160 : $38.80 Silver-to-CRB : Low due soon at 10% ( 0.10 Ratio ) ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted October 22, 2012 Report Share Posted October 22, 2012 Correction In Silver Is A Longer-Term Opportunity October 19, 2012 | 69 comments | includes: PSLV, SIVR, SLV As the author of SilverPriceAdvisor.com, I'm now advocating accumulating a large overweight position in silver relative to gold. First of all, just like stocks, high yield bonds, and most investment asset classes, I think precious metals peaked in price short term right after the Fed QE3 announcement. That is why my subscribers and I choose to take profits at the beginning of the fourth quarter, and reduced our precious metals ETF model portfolio exposure from the equivalent of 140% invested down to only 50%. It is also why I was taking profit gains in the mining stocks at the end of the third quarter. Since I now believe there is more opportunity in the silver market over the next two years relative to gold, and my subscribers and I have cash, the 7.4% correction in silver in the last two weeks has been welcome. However, there are three very important things that you must understand about the silver market before purchasing an overweight position in this commodity: The most important thing you need to know about the silver market is that it will trade with about 300% more volatility than gold does. This means if gold is up or down 1%, silver will probably be up or down 3%. The total silver market is a fraction of the size of the gold market in dollar amounts, so the market is less liquid. Relatively small amounts of money in or out of the market will produce sharp price swings. Because there are only a few large institutions, such as JPMorgan and HSBC, that dominate the market making of silver and are also the custodians of the large inventories, it is an easily manipulated market. So before entering the silver market, you have to be prepared mentally for the volatility you will be exposed to. . . . I'm also changing strategy somewhat. Friday, I began buying a new 10% position in Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV). This vehicle trades more like a closed end fund than an ETF although it is technically neither. It currently trades at a 4.16% premium to its net asset value, which basically means you pay $104.16 for only $100 of physical silver, which seems illogical when in the other ETFs, you pay very close to Net Asset Value. However, it does have some advantages over the other major ETFs, like the iShares Silver ETF (SLV) and ETF Securities (SIVR). The iShares Silver ETF uses JPMorgan as its custodian in New York, and because JPMorgan is the largest manipulator of the silver market, I would never invest in this ETF. /more: http://seekingalpha....erm-opportunity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted October 26, 2012 Report Share Posted October 26, 2012 Get those rockets ready ! From DrBubb's Diary SLV / Silver on a Log scale ... update : 1yr-week Note: that important-looking 126wk MA is based on a Fibonacci number Time to Buy SLV (or SLV calls) with both hands? Maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klogger Posted October 26, 2012 Report Share Posted October 26, 2012 Get those rockets ready ! Clive Maund posted here that he was of the opinion that the USD was going to strengthen and the result would be a correction in the price of silver. The main reason is the massive, staggering short position built up by the Commercials that we will look at lower down the page, which is thought to relate to a possible surprise big rally by the dollar Silver has obviously double topped and corrected down to the 50% fib retrace level; the USD has not yet strengthened, but it has broken out of its downtrend and its MACD is looking promising: Is it a sensible interpretation that a movement to a stronger dollar could cause a further drop in silver? I don't have the experience to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted November 3, 2012 Report Share Posted November 3, 2012 SLV and SIL This is SLV (Physical Silver ETF) in black with SIL (Silver miners ETF) in blue. It's a semi-log chart to show relative performance. It seems that from Jan 2011, SIL has broadly speaking, underperformed in comparison to SLV. If you look at the margin of difference for SIL between May this year and now, compared to SLV, it appears to indicicate that we are now entering a period of outperformance, relative to SLV, for the silver miners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted November 4, 2012 Report Share Posted November 4, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
callmejoe Posted November 7, 2012 Report Share Posted November 7, 2012 http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/11/6_Massive_Short_Covering_%26_Buy_Stops_Triggered_In_Gold_%26_Silver.html Massive Short Covering & Buy Stops Triggered in Gold & Silver .......... this is massive computer buying at this point. There are just huge sums of money sloshing around the entire commodity complex. The trading is literally a case of hedge funds gorging themselves after selling last Friday. .......... We are no longer dealing with human beings ..... We’re dealing with computers and the volatility they are creating in these markets is tremendous because there is no thought process to it. This is ‘Skynet’ out of control. Silver dropped 4% on Friday and today it’s already up 3.5%. The extent of the price moves are being grossly magnified by the way the computers overwhelm and swamp all of the human traders in front of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted November 8, 2012 Report Share Posted November 8, 2012 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J2CBJD093Zc David Morgan makes an interesting point herein: + 70% of Silver production comes as co-production from base metals, mainly copper + Therefore, a severe fall in Copper prices, is likely to cutback on silver production Copper (CU) has fallen more than Silver (SLV) ... update : other time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electroweak Posted November 8, 2012 Report Share Posted November 8, 2012 David Morgan makes an interesting point herein: + 70% of Silver production comes as co-production from base metals, mainly copper + Therefore, a severe fall in Copper prices, is likely to cutback on silver production Copper (CU) has fallen more than Silver (SLV) ... update : other time This has been my understanding and I bear this in mind all the time when thinking about silver. It does suggest a hedgefunded long silver & short copper trade would do ok, maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
callmejoe Posted November 21, 2012 Report Share Posted November 21, 2012 Clif High is predicting a sharp rise in the silver price which would lead to a disgorging of silver (adverts to sell your silver spoons etc) followed by a sharp fall (because of said disgorging). Both will be temporary and he urges people not to sell their silver. He has a link to this Max Keiser video on his halfpasthuman website: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H4IBUTHyROs Keiser Report: 'Crash JP Morgan' - 2nd Anniversary Special If you do listen to Max, turn the volume down Rob Kirby talks of $500 silver if you need some cheering up. Donning sunglasses to ward off the glare from their clothes might also be a good idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
callmejoe Posted November 21, 2012 Report Share Posted November 21, 2012 Here's the video mentioned in that Max Keiser broadcast. No doubt it has been posted somewhere here already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted November 21, 2012 Report Share Posted November 21, 2012 Good analysis here: http://news.goldseek.../1353511500.php Gold’s companion Silver is currently trading in a tighter consolidation with $35 as resistance and $27 as support. Note that Silver has tested and held above $27 six times in the last fifteen months. Silver also held above the rising 40-month moving average which supported the market in 2009 and 2010. The RSI has also made a higher low and volume has trended down during the past seven months. The evidence argues that the bottoms remain well intact and the metals are consolidating before the next breakout which entails Gold breaking $1800 and Silver $35. However, these breakouts are by no means imminent. Since we are dealing with monthly charts that means potentially three or four more months of consolidation. Furthermore, sentiment data such as the COT structure and public opinion polls need some improvement before the market could sustain a breakout. Thus, more consolidation could be the order of the day for the metals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van Posted November 26, 2012 Report Share Posted November 26, 2012 Silver looking very good here technically to break out to new 6 week high @ 33.20 Above that we have another target @ 35.40 set it early October, and above that 37.50 set back in February. The rising mid term moving averages are very supportive of this move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted November 27, 2012 Report Share Posted November 27, 2012 SLV at 18% of GLD should be a BUY GLD : x18% $170 : $30.60 $168 : $30.24 $166 : $29.88 $164 : $29.52 $162 : $29.16 $160 : $38.80 Now 19.5% : SLV-$33.02 / GLD-$169.43 = 19.49% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted November 27, 2012 Report Share Posted November 27, 2012 Now 19.5% : Will be interesting to see if silver can push through 35 here or whether there is further consolidation in the recent trading range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 1, 2012 Report Share Posted December 1, 2012 From DrB's Diary - you may like this indicator World's Best Silver forecaster ? It just might be DBA - and we are now on a BUY signal DBA-vs-SLV ... update : 6mos : DBA-3mos A jump in DBA above the 76d MA (at/near $29.35) would be a nice BUY confirmation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electroweak Posted December 5, 2012 Report Share Posted December 5, 2012 Two great videos on silver... David Morgan with Bix Weir main points: Banks buy using LBMA spot and short the Co(n)mex futures. LMBA is a closed association where the price is set by the 11 members. 9 of those 11 members are implicated in the LI(e)BOR rigging scandal. The only guy who doesn't believe the silver market is rigged is Jeff Christian Max Keiser interviews Ned Naylor-Leyland of Cheviot asset management main points (from 12m30s): For some time there are signs the London market LBMA is struggling to deliver physical silver, the deliverability of LBMA is coming into question. Eric Sprott and his physical silver fund withdrawals may be one reason. At the end of November, LBMA pulled their production of SIFO (SIlver FOrward rates). Coincidentally SIFO was pulled at a "wash low", perhaps when Eric Sprott was in the market buying (a sensible conjecture, Eric's a pretty canny guy and has a stated aim of withdrawing physical silver for his fund PSLV). Sandeep's "basis service" (which provides not just a central rate, but a bid/ask spread) suggested that at the same moment SIFO was pulled, there were real pressures and the market went into backwardation. (Backwardation in theory should never happen for gold/silver) LBMA do still produce GOFO (GOld FOrward rates), as a side-note. Max Keiser did a BBC World Service interview two years ago with Rob Young which made allegations but was not aired, because the BBC is protective of TPTB. It's an open secret that LI(e)BOR was manipulated for years It's an open secret that there is a manipulation racket at LBMA and that identities are hidden. Ned was approached by BBC Panorama to talk about silver manipulation, as was Andrew Maguire, but this was never aired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted December 10, 2012 Report Share Posted December 10, 2012 Looking at both MAs, the consolidation in silver seems to be near completed. Am guessing the 50 week MA will provide support in the interim beofre silver strengthens towards 50 next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traineeinvestor Posted December 13, 2012 Report Share Posted December 13, 2012 USD50 per oz on silver would be nice. I am still kicking myself for not selling in the high 40s last time it spiked up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted December 21, 2012 Report Share Posted December 21, 2012 $Silver not too far off its 200 week MA. Doubt it would get quite that low though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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