SILVER

[TrueNorth]

what mr butler has been banging on about now for a while regarding the new drive to clean up ctfc positions could prove very complimentary for silver

 

Something I read over the weekend, think it was in one of my subscription-newsletters, was, [paraphrasing here]: "Mr Butler believes Mr Gensler (new head of CFTC) will sort out the silver shorts because Mr Butler is a gentleman, and he expects Gensler to keep his word."

 

The writer believed Ted Butler was being overly optimistic about the nature of the people who run the CFTC.

 

I tend to agree with that negative perception.

[dietcolaaddict]

POST DELETED.

 

[notanewmember]

 

 

I will buy more silver when Ted goes bearish.

[romans holiday]

 

Interesting to note that the Yen has not yet managed to break out of the strengthening downward trend.

 

Until the Yen breaks out of this channel, the risk trade looks fragile and silver might not be heading much to the upside.

As predicted, The Yen continues to strengthen with downward pressure on silver.

 

[romans holiday]

Yen strengthening big time at the same time silver is weakening here.... something is up with the markets today... opps I meant down.

[TrueNorth]

ya, I noticed the GSR heading up.

[romans holiday]

ya, I noticed the GSR heading up.

Yes, I wonder if gold might be diverging from silver here and we could see silver down when gold is up.

 

Gold the bonafide currency and silver still ranking a mere commodity.... for now.

[TrueNorth]

Yes, I wonder if gold might be diverging from silver here and we could see silver down when gold is up.

 

Gold the bonafide currency and silver still ranking a mere commodity.... for now.

 

I was wondering the same thing. Wondered if I should cash out of gold for the mo and step aside until the carnage is over. But I don't think I will. I will ride this out like the previous dips.

[romans holiday]

I was wondering the same thing. Wondered if I should cash out of gold for the mo and step aside until the carnage is over. But I don't think I will. I will ride this out like the previous dips.

Gold looks pretty solid to me. It is in silver we should see all the fun.

[Pixel8r]

Gold looks pretty solid to me. It is in silver we should see all the fun.

I think silver has been showing strength recently even on days when gold is undecided. As Ted Butler was saying in his recent interview, abut the only thing that could take silver down at the moment is a large sell off in gold.

 

Should give it a listen;

 

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews...als_Market.html

[warpig]

The more lines I throw at a chart the more unsure I become. All I can really say is I'm more inclined to stay in than swap S4G. When do people expect the stock market to start the next leg down, mid September?

[Pixel8r]

The more lines I throw at a chart the more unsure I become. All I can really say is I'm more inclined to stay in than swap S4G. When do people expect the stock market to start the next leg down, mid September?

I expect the next leg down in the stock market, being lead by the banks, to start next week with the announcement of who got the fed bailouts. I also think things may no follow the same pattern, stocks down, gold and silver down and usd up as before. A lot of deleveraging has happened already now and the fed has made it's case clear now that it will not let the derivative problem knock on, rather they will bailout and print. They made a mistake by allowing lehman's to go and soon realised afterwards the severity of the problems that face the whole financial system with the knock on effect of derivatives.

 

So maybe we will see the stock market go down along with the dollar and gold and silver be the go to assets. Maybe I am not getting something, but I am not so sure we will see the dollar strengthen when the stock market turns down next.

 

[warpig]

Thanks for this, it pretty much echoes my sentiment. I thought silver would track down with the stock markets as it's less of a monetary metal than gold, more speculative play etc... but instinct is telling me don't be so sure, sentiment is changing and quite possibly as you suggest, Lehmans was key.

 

The next 2 weeks will be interesting although I don't hold much hope for the FED disclosing this information, I'm not sure how they'll manage it but I just can't see it happening.

 

I expect the next leg down in the stock market, being lead by the banks, to start next week with the announcement of who got the fed bailouts. I also think things may no follow the same pattern, stocks down, gold and silver down and usd up as before. A lot of deleveraging has happened already now and the fed has made it's case clear now that it will not let the derivative problem knock on, rather they will bailout and print. They made a mistake by allowing lehman's to go and soon realised afterwards the severity of the problems that face the whole financial system with the knock on effect of derivatives.

 

So maybe we will see the stock market go down along with the dollar and gold and silver be the go to assets. Maybe I am not getting something, but I am not so sure we will see the dollar strengthen when the stock market turns down next.

[dietcolaaddict]

Gold has retraced half its rise this friday afternoon, but silver has more or less held all its gain.

 

As pointed out on the Gold Tread^TM, gold-to-silver now under 65.

 

[HPCsoYESTERDAY]

another month nearly over (is monday a bank holiday in the US?) and still silver is keeping schtum

 

 

[romans holiday]

Gold has retraced half its rise this friday afternoon, but silver has more or less held all its gain.

 

As pointed out on the Gold Tread^TM, gold-to-silver now under 65.

Have lightened up some more on this latest peak. Selling for Yen of course.

[TrueNorth]

another month nearly over (is monday a bank holiday in the US?) and still silver is keeping schtum

 

The following Monday is a holiday -- Labor Day.

[electroweak]

Have lightened up some more on this latest peak. Selling for Yen of course.

RH, I like your view that silver and the Yen make nice partners in this environment, but what is your opinion re the Japanese elections? I mean a 50 year coalition is about to be demolished; this could have a powerful effect on the Yen one way or another.

[romans holiday]

RH, I like your view that silver and the Yen make nice partners in this environment, but what is your opinion re the Japanese elections? I mean a 50 year coalition is about to be demolished; this could have a powerful effect on the Yen one way or another.

Yes, I have also been thinking about this. I do not think things will change too much in regard to the currency with a new government due to deflation on the ground. Some commentators are calling for it to strengthen in the short term. If I remember correctly, I heard the opposition was critical of the incumbent's fiscal policy and the latest round of handouts attempting to prime the economy.

 

This article is a very sobering read:

 

Japan’s Jobless Rate Hits Record 5.7% in Blow to Aso

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=aASW1DJWcbho

Aug. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s unemployment rate rose to a record 5.7 percent in July and deflation worsened, dealing a blow to Prime Minister Taro Aso on the eve of an election that polls indicate his ruling Liberal Democratic Party will lose.

 

The jobless rate rose more than economists estimated, surpassing the previous record 5.5 percent last seen in April 2003, the statistics bureau said today in Tokyo. Consumer prices dropped an unprecedented 2.2 percent from a year earlier.

===

The DPJ is projected to win more than 320 of 480 seats in the Aug. 30 lower-house election, according to an Asahi newspaper survey published yesterday. Finance Minister Kaoru Yosano said this week the opposition party is “engulfing Tokyo like a massive wave.”

 

Exports Tumble

 

Companies from Toyota Motor Corp. to Japan Airlines Co. are scaling back and cutting jobs as sales weaken at home and abroad. Exports fell 36.5 percent in July, a tenth monthly drop, as demand from all of the nation’s major markets deteriorated.

===

Toyota, Japan’s biggest automaker, said this week that it will shut down a domestic assembly line as sales plunge. Japan Airlines, Asia’s largest carrier by sales, may cut 5,000 jobs in three years, Kyodo News reported. Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings Ltd., Japan’s largest department store chain, plans to eliminate 1,000 jobs by March, Nikkei English News said.

 

The jobless rate would be around 12 percent if all of Japan’s excess workers were considered unemployed, according to Takahide Kiuchi, chief economist at Nomura Securities Co. in Tokyo.

===

Deflation is also threatening the recovery. Last month’s drop in prices excluding fresh food, which matched economists’ estimates, was the steepest since the survey began in 1971.

 

“Nothing can stop prices from falling now, given that demand has deteriorated so much,” said Masaaki Kanno, a former central bank official and now chief economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Tokyo.

 

Consumers, whose spending accounts for more than half of the economy, may delay purchases if they expect goods to get cheaper. That would erode profits and force companies to keep cutting wages, which tumbled an unprecedented 7 percent in June.

 

Bank of Japan board member Atsushi Mizuno said last week that policy makers should “be prepared to fight a long-term battle” with deflation. The central bank, which has cut the key interest rate to 0.1 percent, has few tools to prop up inflation and economic growth in the short term, he said.

 

Japan is obviously not "exporting their inflation" today, and still no inflation even with trillions in stimulus.

[electroweak]

yes this is what worries me; a new government might be ready to take ultra-drastic action like a prompt devaluation, or someting like that.

 

I think I'll be sticking to the silver-gold switcheroo personally; but not until we get below 50:1, and even then I will only begin to switch. I fully accept I may be waiting a while if/when the next deflationary scare comes along, but I don't have any need for the capital in GoldMoney for the next few years, so I'm going to tough it out, I think.

 

[romans holiday]

yes this is what worries me; a new government might be ready to take ultra-drastic action like a prompt devaluation, or someting like that.

QE and massive stimulus is essentially the attempt to devalue the currency. It is not working. Until someone points out how, practically, the currency can be promptly devalued, I feel safe holding Yen. The other thing is I am already heavily in monetary metal [50%] so am not nervous to be holding 50% in "fiat".

 

I think I'll be sticking to the silver-gold switcheroo personally; but not until we get below 50:1, and even then I will only begin to switch. I fully accept I may be waiting a while if/when the next deflationary scare comes along, but I don't have any need for the capital in GoldMoney for the next few years, so I'm going to tough it out, I think.

This makes sense and is a way for the cautious investor to trade to a certain extent. As a deflationist, I am more confident of seeing the ratio at 80 than 50. That said, investors are still wary of inflation and it would not take much to spark an inflationary scare in the market.

 

As an investor, I will also look to trade between the metals. When I'm wearing my trading hat, I will stick to Yen and silver, which I imagine can be traded more frequently on risk/risk aversion waves as opposed to the big moves such as might be seen with full blown inflation/deflation scares.

[Oddball]

I can't remember seeing this posted. Apologies if it has.

 

This is a very interesting article by Tim Wood and reinforces my own outlook. I know, I know, I'm aware of it.

 

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/wood073109.html

 

Are we heading for another crash. Well looky here http://www.canadianinsider.com/coReport/al....php?ticker=tnx.

 

Looks like the king of the gold bugs is "barfing" his own shares. Not conclusive of anything I know but telling nevertheless.

 

 

[Jake]

I know it's maybe stupid now but tonight I took delivery of some beautiful 30th anniversary Pandas. I bought them to celebrate the election here today, my first Pandas. And quite stunning they are too. Make Brittanias look like Maples-shiny and fake!

when the price falls I intend to buy a whole few more.

 

Bit off topic, too much wine tonight! And edging towards 100 posts. (sorry everyone). For me it is deflation and price of silver/gold/houses/stocks all down before gold then silver rallying to 1600 and 35 then falling. Houses (UK) just down. Stocks, wave 3 down below march then up again then down again. Just like now. Currencies? havent got a clue. Best I can do a few dollars, a bit of Yen ditto Pounds, few Euros, lots of silver and gold. Supplies all in, tins etc. Garden full. Rice 100kg's, Guns none, passport ok.

 

Happy September everyone!

[HPCsoYESTERDAY]

I know it's maybe stupid now but tonight I took delivery of some beautiful 30th anniversary Pandas. I bought them to celebrate the election here today, my first Pandas. And quite stunning they are too. Make Brittanias look like Maples-shiny and fake!

when the price falls I intend to buy a whole few more.

 

crikey - what is it with this forum, romans, true north, yerself et.al all see pretty sure the pos is going to fall

 

well here's a newsflash - you don't know this no matter what bobby (i'll get it right sometime this year) hoye and others say / the 2nd part of the newsflash is this - you're are a) predicting $ strength for this to happen and assuming pos will fall if you get part a. / the 3rd part of the newsflash is that you are assuming that we have an exact repeat of last year but without the element of the unknown (unlike last year) and hence a massive margin-call de-leveraging will occur 12 months after the 1st which was years in the making

 

i wish i had a crystal ball like you guys!

 

rant off (no offence intended)

[Jake]

crikey - what is it with this forum, romans, true north, yerself et.al all see pretty sure the pos is going to fall

 

well here's a newsflash - you don't know this no matter what bobby (i'll get it right sometime this year) hoye and others say / the 2nd part of the newsflash is this - you're are a) predicting $ strength for this to happen and assuming pos will fall if you get part a. / the 3rd part of the newsflash is that you are assuming that we have an exact repeat of last year but without the element of the unknown (unlike last year) and hence a massive margin-call de-leveraging will occur 12 months after the 1st which was years in the making

 

i wish i had a crystal ball like you guys!

 

rant off (no offence intended)

 

 

No crystal ball, I'll admit that. But I do expect dollar to strengthen. POS is cheap now IMO for what it is. I will keep sniping away at what I like while it is available. Forgive me my sins, I am a silver/gold bug at heart. Last year everywhere was 'sold out'. Like the dealers like to lose money? I expect the markets to fall after reaching their retracement numbers. Could be now, could be late Autumn, could be next year. Volume is down, insider selling is up. The run of the mill will get a good shearing again. Gold I am a little unsure of. If the cash runs to gold rather than bonds then up is the way. If the money flows to bonds this may take longer.

 

Having said all this I dont KNOW what will happen as much as the next guy. I do know I will have another glass of wine as this is a fine day with some lovely pandas for company and a new government/party after 50 years in Japan. I have a little campfire on the terrace and the moon has just landed in the tree tops on the brow of the hill opposite my house meaning another evening is drawing to a close. Moreover the kids are tucked up asleep and school starts tomorrow. Hopefully the deleveraging too. Have to go. Aso has just come on. Will he resign now? kampai!