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Signals for Oil : OIH and BHI may lead upturn.


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A refreshing antidote to PM threads perhaps?

 

Post your charts and thoughts here.

 

(added, in edit):

From the XX thread:

 

Oil (USO) versus Oil Service shares (OIH) ... update

aa0ks0.gif

 

Close-up on OIH : update : Feb.2009.WTI

bigvl0.gif

 

Compare: 12/17/2008:

aaaku3.jpg

 

F 42.36 270,928

M 45.16 116,028

A 47.15 54,020

M 48.74 35,801

J 50.05 106,891

Jl 51.15 31,164

A 52.06 27,685

S 52.90 21,242

O 53.71 19,011

N 54.50 16,219

D 55.28 103,040

 

Updated WTI Crude closing prices:

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Thnx for starting this Peter. I will bring over some content from the other thread,

so people can see the track record of OIH in helping to nail the TURNS on oil

 

And if that happened do you have a target in mind [if you don't mind me asking]?

 

Watch the chart, and see when it happens (price over 21d&34d): OIH chart

We might even get an advance warning here : BHI chart

 

The mistake I made last time was ANTICIPATING the signal rather than waiting for it.

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Interesting forecast.

If that happens, then OIH may give a false signal for OIl

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I could see a decent rally coming in crude.

Maybe to $70-80, which is where the long term prices suggest

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Still no signal : chart

aa4jg1.gif

 

We are getting close, but no cigar yet. If the newsflow eases, Oil could resume its slide.

The volume on this little rally is weak - and that's not bullish.

 

OIH needs to punch thru $75-80 : BHI chart

 

OIH Close: $71.40 Change: +$1.74

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(from the Major Low in Oil? thread):

 

Why are oil service companies a good sign that the POO will enter an upward trend?

I was of the thinking that oil producers would limit production to boost prices?

Higher oil prices are good for Oil Service stocks, and historically they have often led moves in Oil.

But the track record is not 100%. More like 80-90%, I suppose

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(from the DrB Diary thread):

any views on this one - still near the bottom - even though Oil has moved up

i dont own any

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=HOU.TO

Horizons BetaPro NYMEX CRUDE OI(Toronto: HOU.TO

 

looks cheap,

But wait for the Signal from OIH - see the Oil Signal thread here

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OIH: 76.46 Change: +2.71 // Percent Change: +3.67%

Open: 74.01 High: 76.74 Low: 73.99

Volume: 932,717

 

If it can hold these gains, and stay over $75, that's a bullish indication

 

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Good price move in OIH ... update

bigfa5.gif

OIH: $79.593 Change: +$5.843

Volume: 7,173,817

Percent Change: +7.92%

 

A sign of an upturn? Maybe. But not enough volume to be fully convincing.

So I am not adding to my positions (yet), and may do some profit-taking here.

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OIH stocks may be a good BUY on Monday, if it can hold OIH-75. : OIH-10d-chart

 

Friday's action was:

OIH: 79.23 Change: -5.22

Open: 84.00 High: 84.25 Low: 78.67

Volume: 10,648,000

Percent Change: -6.18%

 

Friday's low may be good enough. Click on chart, above

 

The larger components are: (at 3/2007 were):

SLB / Schlumberger : 10.41%

RIG / Transocean.... : 10.08%

HAL / Halliburton....... : 9.52%

BHI / Baker Hughes... : 9.52%

GSF / ...................... : 8.44%

DO / Diamond Offsh... : 6.10%

NE / Noble Corp........ : 5.93%

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ADDED OIH and BHI calls today as OIH fell to my $75 target.

Let's hope it holds support near there

 

My expectation is that we are at a "Kiss it Goodbye" point, after the breakout it is revisiting the breakpoint

 

Bloomberg: "Goldman says: 'Oil may fall to $30 this quarter'" - I love betting against these guys, and winning

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Have followed you into OIH today at $75.4. Managed to buy it within my UK selftrade ISA, it wasn't on their website but the dealer was able to buy for me.

 

It appears that a lot of US ETFs are not on their website, but you can still buy when you speak to the dealers.

 

 

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Bloomberg: "Goldman says: 'Oil may fall to $30 this quarter'" - I love betting against these guys, and winning

 

Yeah, and they're shaping up to be a good contrarian indicator IMO.

 

 

Have followed you into OIH today at $75.4. Managed to buy it within my UK selftrade ISA, it wasn't on their website but the dealer was able to buy for me.

 

It appears that a lot of US ETFs are not on their website, but you can still buy when you speak to the dealers.

 

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....ic=5612&hl= Post #19

 

I did BHI as you can trade online albeit "at best" only and without stops and limit orders. :rolleyes:

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http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....ic=5612&hl= Post #19

 

I did BHI as you can trade online albeit "at best" only and without stops and limit orders. :rolleyes:

 

When you ring the dealer you are charged the same as if you buy online. When bought you can sell "at best" online, so much the same really, just takes a phone call.

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When you ring the dealer you are charged the same as if you buy online. When bought you can sell "at best" online, so much the same really, just takes a phone call.

 

The only downside is that you get put on hold when the markets move quickly.

 

 

 

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  • 3 weeks later...

OIH bears close watching here ... OIH-chart

 

aa0lh0.gif

 

A break over OIH-76.00 with volume would be very encourgaing for Oil & Oil shares.

A fall under OIH-74.00 (with volume) would be bearish

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  • 4 weeks later...
  • 2 weeks later...

Update - No breakout yet

bigc.gif

 

aa4e.gif

USO performing better than OIH ... update

big.gif

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  • 3 weeks later...

TIME TO SELL Oil and Oil-related shares? -

The Fundamentals dont look so "hot", and we've had a nice run.

I am doing some lightening up here

 

saupload_fitz1_thumb1.jpg

 

The question is then: why is oil trading over $53 today when the supply/demand picture is so bearish?

 

No doubt part of the reason is a jubilant market response to the fiscal policies unveiled by the Obama administration recently. That said, printing money to reflate the economy has its drawbacks. The US dollar index has dropped from 89 to 83.3 in two weeks (6.4%) and this supports oil and most other commodity prices.

 

Underpinning the rally in crude oil (which could falter as short covering abates) are memories of 2008. The fundamentals of peak oil are still in place. While unemployment, housing, and consumer spending will remain a problem as the US works through the recession, one must remember that OPEC is cutting production while worldwide E&P budgets are down as well. The next oil price spike could make 2008 look like child’s play. Don’t be surprised to see front month oil contracts trade at wider and wider discounts to oil futures as the US recovers from recession and governments the world over fiscally reflate the world economy. Traders will not forget the $145/barrel prices of 2008 any time soon. Neither will they forget that production at many US oil companies was actually down in 2008 despite those high prices.

 

On the natural gas front, new shale production has US nat gas weekly underground storage volumes trending higher.

 

/more: http://seekingalpha.com/article/127517-why...icle_sb_popular

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