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Trading Volatility, Ballasted by Gold


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"My main motivation for hedging [trading the volatility] was to maintain an equanimity in an uncertain and volatile market. Feel a bit surprised at the recent move, but not stressed"

 

That's a good place to be ("unstressed") in a time like this

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buy some bull spreads maybe - if SLV touches the 360/365wk ma

 

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While the S&P is up 14% ytd, I've started to see larger intraday swings in volatility, especially over the last few weeks. I've continued trading UVXY to try and take advantage of this, with the last 2 weeks working out well for me. I closed out one large trade with a modest loss, but have since had better success by increasing trading frequency. I'm still looking for an entry point, where I feel totally comfortable lettings things ride.

 

With the markets jumping on Friday, UVXY has now shifted lower still - 6.08. I still see a potential spike in UVXY and as we get further info May, the markets will top out and the VIX will shoot up again. Still, I understand this is contrarian, and the latest US jobs data did look improved, but I fail to see how current market levels can be sustained.

 

Also, I'm looking at AGQ once more, and will start building a position in this again.

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AGQ:

Do you think we will avoid the retest of the Lows?

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  • 1 month later...

As for LSIL ok doubt we will go back to 08/09 slide lows, but I'm waiting with funds to see a turn.

 

 

THEN AGAIN. LSIL hits 18.5 at close :o

 

R.H you picked up on the stories floating around about France banning postal deliveries of bullion cars or bars?

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  • 2 weeks later...

THEN AGAIN. LSIL hits 18.5 at close :o

 

R.H you picked up on the stories floating around about France banning postal deliveries of bullion cars or bars?

 

Hi Riggerz. No I haven't been following the news at all. These days am focused on reading and writing; learning Latin and writing a short science fiction story.

 

Wow! Silver under $20. I thought silver would be volatile, but not that volatile! Although I'd traded a good chunk of AGQ on the spike and correction and managed to accumulate units, I'd say I'm pretty much underwater as far as the initial investment goes. That said, I still think bullion prices will reverse, where it wouldn't take much to see the investment salvaged and go on to a profit. No certainties but.

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I recall all those old Silver Bulls in GoldSeek, who when the prices was $50, were bragging that there average cost was $20.

 

Remember the one who said: "Never, ever, ever Sell you Gold ... or Silver!" - What a clueless idiot !

(And many of us said so at the time, not just me.)

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I recall all those old Silver Bulls in GoldSeek, who when the prices was $50, were bragging that there average cost was $20.

 

Remember the one who said: "Never, ever, ever Sell you Gold ... or Silver!" - What a clueless idiot !

(And many of us said so at the time, not just me.)

 

Only a complete miser would say never sell your gold or silver... or cash for that matter. At the end of the day it's there to enjoy real assets.

 

I think the essential thing to keep in mind about these markets is that they won't be a one way straight [whichever way] but will be unstable and volatile. So even though bullion prices are down now, there's every chance they will be up again. Silver/ gold prices usually strengthen towards the end of the year, add to that chaos in some market, further QE etc, and prices could quickly recover.

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Double bottom target of around 15 for LSIL possible, which for Romans would probably be what 16-17 AGQ?

 

Ha, yep could be on the cards. Telling time here. Still banking that the long [long] trend will 'rescue' my position, which could've been worse if I hadn't also traded it.

 

If the price doesn't rally with what is typically the strong season for silver, you'd have to start questioning the idea of a long term bull market.

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Ha, yep could be on the cards. Telling time here. Still banking that the long [long] trend will 'rescue' my position, which could've been worse if I hadn't also traded it.

 

If the price doesn't rally with what is typically the strong season for silver, you'd have to start questioning the idea of a long term bull market.

 

Now don't you get bottling it Romans. Not now you have company here ;)

 

Joined on the trade late last night and dipped the other toe in this morning.......Hi Ho Silver :lol:

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Now don't you get bottling it Romans. Not now you have company here ;)

 

Joined on the trade late last night and dipped the other toe in this morning.......Hi Ho Silver :lol:

 

Well, keeping the faith for now. But if the price doesn't start consolidating upwards over this seasonal period, I'll no doubt start wavering. ^_^

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  • 1 month later...

When you want to "throw the towel",

it is often Time to Buy !

 

A bull indicator you think? Yes...... hopefully. 'Hope', for the trader, is always the problem though! ha ha

 

With AGQ now at 18, I am planning to sell should it get down to 15. No great harm will have been down as I never bet the farm, and always allowed for the possibility of being dead wrong, or fallible.

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My toes got chopped some time back, nasty down trend showing no respite as yet. LSIL could easily go sub summer lows. Target for LSIL? Maybe as low as 13ish, unless the trend breaks.

 

Meantime no hurry to get back in for me.

 

They were the right instruments as far as volatility goes. The error lay in being prejudiced to the bullish side, and not being prepared to short the buggers. :P

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