drbubb

Good to see you here, Ecoface. You certainly could be right, and I think there is probably a 50% or so probability (of lower lows) in my thinking. But I do note that a large number seem to share this view, so a surprise is likely perhaps

I like the Shard - and it adds something to the neighborhood But it might be too tall

Just when you thought it was unsafe to jump into the Waters ... The Bulls arrive...

An unhealthy boom is guaranteed, since those rates are unsustainable

House prices up as buyers return Halifax Evening Courier - ‎Sep 6, 2013‎ House prices are 5.4% higher than last summer as property market activity intensifies, figures from the Halifax show. The lender said prices rose 0.4% in August, the seventh consecutive monthly increase, resulting in an average figure of £170,231. . . . (sorry - same as above) I want to highlight THIS part: ... the Bank is ''acutely aware'' of the potential threats and said action will be taken to clamp down on mortgage lending if needed. Carney seems to be aware that the programme was driven by POLITICAL rather than ECONOMIC reasons

Starship Congress? An interesting concept

HK's PRIMARY Market Does this argument make sense? Thomas Lam Ho-ma (Head of Research at Knight Frank) says: He "does not foresee a 'price war in the primary sales market as developers are financially strong, particularly the bigger players with a portfolio of local and overseas projects.' ... So far, developers face no significant pressure to dump their new flats at big discounts." - LuxeHomes, from SCMP Okay. I see his point that they are cash rich, and have little debt. But who is going to cut prices? The secondary market? Not likely. People who are deriving use (a place to live), or rental income from a flat are less likely to sell it, than those who are holding a completed new property that is sitting vacant. I still think the primary market IS TAKING THE BRUNT of the current correction, as secondary prices remain rather stable.

The agents are pumping some Expensive London properties, now that the summer is over... Le Corniche - would anyone else buy it ??

Someday, we will get a Bond breakdown, where money flows into Gold, as an "ultimate safe haven"

Could this RISK of Rent Controls be impacting on BDEV's share price? Rising rates are imperiling the UK Housing Bull run When the 21d-MA crosses the 76d-MA and the Uptrend is broken, it would confirm at least a serious correction is underway IMHO

Britain’s new breed of landlords should prepare for a political backlash By: Matthew Lynn 02/09/2013 There may never have been a better time to be a landlord in Britain. .... Landlords always face risks, of course. If house prices collapse, they’ll be left with a capital loss. And interest rates might rise, even though Bank of England governor Mark Carney has promised to keep them low for at least another three years. But the biggest risk that landlords may be missing is not financial. It’s political. The rise of private landlords is starting to create a backlash – and it’s going to intensify. Already the Labour Party is discussing rent controls. Its housing spokesman, Jack Dromey, has been reported as privately favouring such controls. Even if he seems to have backed away from that in public, he is arguing for longer rental agreements to try to curb soaring rents, particularly in London. In the last election for London mayor, Labour’s candidate Ken Livingstone argued for a ‘living rent’, by which he meant that rental payments should not be more than a third of a person’s pay. ..... == == http://www.itulip.co...6406#post266406

SALT worked too ! (as in salary)

The problem is your browser, and a certain type of computer I bet you are using Explorer. Am I right? Switch to: Firefox, or Google chrome, and the problem will disappear, I reckon (I made some P's in your piece)

At last, some enthusiasm in the HK Property market ! As I mentioned on the other thread, New World seems to have got "it design right, and its pricing right" at Park Signature in Yuen Long. The property has nearly sold out the first two batches quickly, and now they are raising prices. It has been a while since we saw that. Perhaps this success is one reason that HK Developer share prices are trading higher today: + HK-17 / New World : $11.18 +$0.30 / +2.76% + HK-12 / Henderson : $47.05 +$1.55 / +3.41% + HK- 01 / Cheung Kong : 112.80 +$2.10 / +1.90% + HK-16 / SHK Properties : 101.80 +$1.20 / +1.19%

THE FREEZE is happening in all sectors - not just residential Volume of Property Deals Plunges in Hong Kong Transaction volumes for offices in Hong Kong dropped 67 percent during the second quarter compared to the previous quarter, according to new data from Savills. Luxury residential transactions on Hong Kong island were 48 percent lower than the first quarter, dropping to its lowest level since 1997 and lower than the third quarter of 2008 during the global financial crisis. Owners in residential, office, retail, and industrial markets are refusing to drop prices, in most cases leaving only end users in the market, according to Savills. "Government measures have succeeded in freezing price appreciation across most sectors, with speculators, funds and other investors all exiting the market," Savills reported. In the office market, there were only 282 deals during the second quarter, compared to 862 transactions during the first quarter. But prices remained relatively stable as landlords "were in strong financial positions and were unfazed by the demand shrinkage," Savills reports. - . . . The industrial sector had the worst performance during the second quarter, with only 25 transactions over HK$30 million, down from 72 the previous quarter, according to the report. Similar to findings by Savills, a recent report from Jones Lang LaSalle showed a large drop in direct commercial investment in Hong Kong, caused by various government measures. === See Data and Charts more at: http://www.worldprop...h.H3fOTlVC.dpuf

PRICE CUTS ARE HERE ! ... the predicted cuts (in new properties) have arrived Examples: ======== Park Signature : New World---- : 68 Kung Um Rd., Yuen Long : 328 flats : HK$ 9,416 psf, net The Rise ------- : Cheung Kong : ?? --------------. , Tsuen Wan : ??? flats : HK$ 8,742 psf, net (after discounts) Park Signature ultimately has 1,620 units, and an entry price of HK$2.5 million Note that these "discounts" are so far confined to the New Territories, in less convenient locations There was a comment in the SCMP article: "Some areas... will see abundant new supply and prices will fall." Specific areas mentioned were: Tseung Kwan O and Yuen Long. Major projects coming are: + 1,419 flats in Tung Chung + 911-flats at Century Gateway II in Tuen Mun.

Junk Debt Exceeds $2 Trillion in Central Bank Repression Aug 26, 2013 It took three decades for the amount of speculative-grade debt to reach $1 trillion. It took about seven years to reach $2 trillion as investors sought relief from the financial repression brought on by near-zero interest rates. The market for dollar-denominated junk-rated debt has expanded more than eightfold since the end of 1997 from $243 billion, according to Morgan Stanley. That compares with a quadrupling of the investment-grade market to $4.2 trillion as tracked by the Bank of America Merrill Lynch U.S. Corporate Index. While Federal Reserve policies have pushed investors toward riskier investments to generate high yields, allowing even the neediest companies that might otherwise default to access capital markets, concern is rising that missed payments may soar when benchmark rates begin to increase. Martin Feldstein, a past president of the National Bureau of Economic Research, said last week that low rates should be allowed to rise because they’re driving investors into risky behavior. “The growth in the market, and volume of supply is less important than quality of issuance,” Adam Richmond, a credit strategist at Morgan Stanley in New York, said in a telephone interview. “When we see a heavy volume of lower-quality deals, that’s when you need to worry a little bit.” === /more: http://www.bloomberg...it-markets.html

gnashing of teeth here

I am still expecting $1500-1600, perhaps more

This was the "meat" for me; Remarkably, through the credit bubble the likes of Northern Rock and Bradford & Bingley boasted to investors that Britain's "very limited" rate of housebuilding supported their doomed strategies. Successive governments delivered that help. The deal for Britain's young has transpired as follows: pay taxes, pay high rents and endure the sharpest points of austerity in order to help support a housing system that is delivering wildly expensive houses, or none at all, and to help bail out the failed banks that were built on that system. Are we going to load the burden of adjustment from a decade-long bubble on to people who happen to have been born in the 1980s and 1990s? Progressive voices keen to redistribute through benefits have said very little about the overarching negative redistribution caused by the trebling of house prices. All political parties claim to want to foster "social mobility", yet it seems that where you live will be determined more now by where your parents lived. The government is helping the BTL speculators with these mad policies, not the ones they should be helping

What happened at Caribbean Coast last week? . Index at 8/11/2013 : $5,343 - 9.97% from $5,935 in one week Down from $6,236 (7/07/13) - that's - 14.32% . . Reportedly: There was some talk about a cheap sale due to an "incident" in one of the flats. .

What happened at Caribbean Coast last week? Index: $5,342 - XX% in once week

Where's "There", GF? I think we could see $1500-1600 by October, perhaps sooner

Now the Hedgie Bears are capitulating on their shorts, Pixel: - And the "Manipulators" covered their shorts long ago. The Mind-of-Market was wonderfully controlled: Survey Participants Expect Higher Gold Prices Next Week - Kitco News, Aug 16 2013 12:14PM I would say the "gold suppression plan" worked brilliantly.' The Bullion Banks shorted near the top, and covered those shorts near the bottom, buying Gold from folks like John Paulsen, who were eventually driven to sell down when the losses got too big.

Property stocks spooked by governor's interest rate pledge Property Week News The Bank of England's announcement last week that interest rates would be fixed at 0.5% until unemployment fell to 7%, on the face of it, appeared a positive announcement for the property industry.