drbubb

Haha. Just wondering if we will now see London properties pushed even more aggressively here

Shameful manipulation! Will Hongkongers get it too? (he wonders)

Gold over shot the $150 rally target

This chart could suggest a low in Silver at just below $20

SO far, you are easily right - Gold above $1453

Biggest Gains - Does New beat Convenience ? UPDATE : No Clear answers Date== : =CCLI= : TaiKoo : ParkCnt : ParkIsl : PkA/CP:CaribCst Efficiency: ---NA--- 87.32% : 75.17%: 76.95%: 74.31% : 74.58% : 01/01/12 : 095.47 : $9,160 : $6,139 : $5,457 : 10,399 : $4,631 : 12/30/12 :: NetSF : 13,359 : 10,024 : $8,558 : 15,020 : $8,116 : 12/30/12 : 115.78 : 11,665 : $7,535 : $6,585 : 11,161 : $6,053 : 12mo chg: +21.3%: +27.3%: +22.7%: +20.7%: +7.33%: +30.7%: ==== 04/14/13 : 120.12 : 11,936 : $7,713 : $6,578 : 12,198 : $5,795 : 16mo chg: +25.8%: +30.3%: +25.6%: +20.5%: +17.3%: +25.1%: from 1'13: + 3.75%: +2.32%: +2.36%: - 0.11%: +9.29%: - 4.36%: ========== Over the 15 1/2 month period, "Convenience" won, with Taikoo Shing, outperforming "newer" TKO. But not on the West Kowloon side, where less convenient CC outperformed PkAve by a large amount. However, CC fell by more than the other Estates during 2013 so far. I say: "No clears." But maybe the "convenient" location (near XRL) and modernity of the Park Avenue, will allow it to outperform as we approach the completion of the XRL in 2-3 years time. /see: http://hongkong.asia...nvenient-tk-fh/

"What can you get for under $3 million?" It took us a long search to find it... You can get a nice modernised 2BR flat in an older building (just less than 40 years old) about 5 minutes walk from Olympic station in Tai Kok Tsui - and then rent it for more than 4% Gross Rental yield. Here are some comparative figures: "The TC/TKO Through Line" : using Tower 3, 30-C Flat Bank Valuations (mostly) ==== Area: Estate Name == : -04/14- : %-TKT : Flat== : BkValue : SFgr/net : PSF-net : Effic% : Yrs : TKO : ParkC/Cent.Hts. : $07,712 : 63.2% : T3-30C : $7.47 M : 899/691 : 10,810 : 76.9% : 10 : TK-- : Tsui Woo Terr.-- : $11,936 : 97.9% : T3-25C : $6.07 M : 585/489 : 12,413 : 83.6% : 35 : TKT : ParkAv/CentPark : $12,198 : 100% : T3-30C : $12.3 M : 943/659 : 18,665 : 69.9% : 12 : TsYi : Tierre Verde ---- : $09,628 : 78.9% : T3-30C : $8.90 M : 951/765 : 11,634 : 80.4% : 14 : TCC: Caribbean Coast : $05,795 : 47.5% : T3-30C : $4.31 M : 680/507 : $8,501 : 74.6% : 11 : (Adding in the property mentioned above): TKT : "Older Building"-- : $06,338 : 52.0% : XXhi-# : $2.70 M : 426/326 : $8,282: 76.5% : 38 : When you consider the location as well as the lower transactional cost (stamp duties, etc), as well as the yield, I think the purchase may make sense even in the current soft market. After all, where are you going to put your money? I really do not get why anyone would pay $12,000 gross to buy an Old Flat in Taikoo Shing, when they can buy something nicer than that for under $7,000 in TKT. In the long run, which is going to be the better location?? If you are willing to have a longer commute (than TKT) to HK prime locations, I might also suggest looking in Yuen Long.

Putting TS and PA together, I get... . Two different areas of the Hong Kong SAR, have long had very similar prices. . That's the old stand-by, Taikoo Shing on Hong Kong Island ... update . And a newer property in the Olympic Area, called Park Avenue /Central Park ... update . . And these two areas can be put together, to create a "virtual history" for prices in PA/CP from before it was even launched. Here it is: . . This suggests that CP is at the top of a channel, and could pullback to the center of that channel, near $10,500 (and rising), or even a major support level just below $9,000, in a more severe correction. Or, in a more bullish scenario, prices could keep banging on the top of the channel or even breakout above it. .

Call for pensioners to 'share the pain' of cuts By: malterwitty Pensioners should share the pain of austerity cuts and pay more tax to promote fairness between the generations in the housing market, a think-tank has warned. The Fabian Society claims high levels of home ownership among older people threatens fairness, as the wages of middle-income workers stagnate and they cannot afford to buy a home. It argues pensioners' taxes should increase, their benefits should be cut, and a tax on property wealth should be introduced.

Yeah. So they want to "rig the wheel" in the casino, so they get a payoff from it

Max and Stacey talk about Property Taxes as an obvious solution to government deficit problems "If Cyprus is forced to sell Gold, then Portugal would be/should be too" "I have got my money on the billion Indians" (buying gold) "PROPERTY" is a sitting duck... You cannot move it, so revenue-hungry governments are going to tax it." "Spain is (likely) to tax Brits with property in Spain, to cover their deficits"

Here's one bit of recent news : A counterpoint to the Wings hype, perhaps?. Wheelock pays HK$2.5b for Tseung Kwan O site. Wheelock Properties yesterday outbid eight developers to win a residential site in Tseung Kwan O for HK$2.45 billion for what is to be its third development in the district. The developer also sold its new office tower in Kowloon Bay to Manulife (International) for HK$4.5 billion, or HK$8,789 per square foot, in the largest single office-tower transaction in Kowloon this year. Wheelock acquired the Tseung Kwan O site for HK$4,301 per square foot, in line with market expectations.. Alvin Lam, a director at Midland Surveyors, said: "The price, in line with market expectations, reflects developers still have confidence in the market outlook.". Wheelock chairman Stewart Leung Chi-kin said the company would spend HK$5.5 billion to HK$5.8 billion to develop the project. "The project will be released for sale as early as within 2-1/2 years. The prices will be fixed at more than HK$10,000 per square foot," Leung said. "We are interested in the site as it is one of the last few available in Tseung Kwan O." === /more: http://www.scmp.com/...ung-kwan-o-site

The Pounding in TKO / What happened in the Tsueng Kwan O area? Why did these specific estates get so hard-hit? Changes over the past Month - in Centaline's Data ---------- 04/14 : 120.12 119.35: 03/17 : 123.66 122.98: change: -2.87% : -2.96% Areas: ===== HK Isl : - 1.84% Kowln : - 5.26% NT- E : - 1.79% NT- W : - 1.70% compare: Ocean Shores : -13.54% : $ 7,779 : TKO Laguna City-- : -12.30% : $ 6,654 : Cha Kwo Ling, nr. TKO ParkCent/CHt : -11.13% : $ 7,712 : TKO Whampoa Gd : - 9.39% : $11,446 : Hung Hom Resid . Bel-Air : - 9.11% : $15,177 : HK Isl. Caribbean Cs. : -10.04% : $ 5,795 : NT-W, Tung Chung ... .. Park Central was a very big gainer === Late 2008 / 2013-H : $3,500 - $8,700 : +149% Early 2012/ 2013-H : $5,900 - $8,700 : + 47%

Sure... but there may be a time limit. Send my a PM, if you are up against that

(From AX, here's OffThePeak, on the Main Property thread): Bank Valuations: "30% below market" ? No way, in my area! Yes, some bank valuations in this area (TKT) have come down further in the last several days: On the HSBC website: + 1% lower on the 38 year old building (Cosmo Estates), + Unchanged at The Long Beach I would say that they are within 3% of Market Values - so no big deal. Why do people on HK Island this their "market values" are so far above Bank Values? Perhaps they are talking about asking prices, which I would think are looking very high to buyers. Are there any transactions that support the lofty asking prices? Eventually, market values will be set by transactions, no matter what Sellers are hoping for. On the way up, the Buyers were fighting the market trend. Now its seems to be the Sellers that are fighting it. And the banks are doing their best to navigate the space between. Frankly, I can see little incentive to pay up for flats over $10 Million, since the developers are going to have to get FAR MORE REALISTIC on their pricing as this market coma period continues. And I think they will be cutting must aggressively on their expensive flats. At minimum, I think they will have to absorb Stamp Tax - or discounts equivalent to that. I wonder how long the aggressive discounts at One West Kowloon will last? They are saying that it is "just to move supply before the new Net SF regulations apply." But that might just be an early crack in the premium prices that Developers have been extracting for New Builds. A time may come when "flats with deferred completions" trade at a discount rather than a premium to secondhand - since you cannot live in them until you get the keys, and meantime you are forking over a rental payment that exceeds the interest rate. === /see: http://hongkong.asiaxpat.com/forums/hong-kong-property/threads/149386/the-state-of-the-hong-kong-property-market-(8)/

Great anecdote, BAB Do you doubt that interest rate will rise? Surely, they cannot stay at ultra-low levels forever. And even with low rates, parts of the UK have seen a decent correction in prices

Be careful with PSLV !

More space can help the market lower... Revolt forces extension plans rethink Channel 4 News - ‎8 hours ago‎ Plans to make it easier for homeowners to build larger extensions are to be reconsidered after the government suffers a backbench revolt and near defeat.

Where did the "Missing" Gold come from? http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=_u2wkW4tYEg In the past 30 years, the US has exported 4,500 Tons* of Gold - that cannot be accounted for From an "official source"? Ah, but when they account for that Gold, it may be on the balance sheet "in a single line" as inventory == == *That's 1.8 years of Gold production "A move designed to shake out the weak hands." ? "Very shortly a big buying opportunity.... Well, thank you!"

Sure I agree with that But a retest on light volume, if we see that - might be an even better buying opportunity

MORGAN STANLEY: The Pillars Of Gold Are Crumbling Business Insider-by Sam Ro-2 hours ago We trace the origins of the short sale assault to the 10% reduction in CME margins for gold futures contracts that took place in November 2012.

Wales sees house prices rise faster than any other UK nation in 2012 WalesOnline - ‎4 hours ago‎ House prices are rising faster in Wales than any other UK nation with a 4.1% jump in the 12 months to February, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Unless Sentiment goes even further off the charts

The GOLD sentiment is "off the charts" negative

Oh Dear. You can find plenty of instances were I said I was wrong about London property prices. But there were many other things that I had right. You JD's memory is flawed, maybe badly flawed. For my record, all you have to do is look at this thread: DrBubb's Property Diary : tinyurl.com/GPC-Diary All the most significant posts are there to be read - Go ahead and read them, just over 200 posts. ENJOY You will find great calls and bad calls, and everything in between. If JD thinks he can do better, he should start his own Diary - as I have invited him to do.