drbubb

(I need to post this here too.) IS GOLD TOO EXPENSIVE ? Maybe. Look at this comparison with Silver/ SLV ... update Silver often leads Gold, and has left behind a big gap after the last drop. (Took some profits on a part of my GLD position today after seeing this.)

They already did some hedging, and without appropriate expertise, unfortunately (I could have saved these guys millions- but the banks cannot help but push their products): As a result of gold forward purchase contracts entered into during the year and subsequent to December 31, the Company has de-designated 96% of Kupol gold forward sales contracts maturing in 2011 and 100% of such contracts maturing in 2012. As a result, Kinross expects the net impact of locked-in Kupol gold hedges to be a $155 million reduction in revenue in 2011. Kupol silver hedges are expected to reduce revenue by $40 million in 2011, based on a budgeted silver price of $24 per ounce. /see: http://kinrossgold.com/media/211410/021611%20kinross%20reports%202010%20fourth%20quarter%20and%20year-end%20results.pdf

I agree with most of this. But does it really make sense to IGNORE rental income? I think actual rental income (PROVEN by tax revenues) is better than optimistically estimate future income. Banks should discount those optimistic estimates

"A good thing" - Would be to keep them OUT of homes that they cannot afford at sustainable rates, Not today's ultra-low rates.

Leverage to Gold Price : Resource Oz per $1000 invested ====== GLD - : 0.6 Gold etf GG - - : 2.6 Goldcorp GOLD : 2.9 Randgold AGM - : 3.3 Agnico Eagle AUY - : 3.9 Yamana NEM - : 4.2 Newmont ABX - : 4.8 Barrack NCM- : 5.0 Newcrest KGC- : 5.6 Kinross

Kinross Gold Production (year) 2006-A : 1.5 million oz 2010-A : 2.3 million oz 2011-E : 2.6 - 2.7 mn (2.65 mn) 2015-E : 4.5 - 4.9 mn (4.70 mn): that's 15.4% pa ===== /presentation: http://kinrossgold.com/media/221700/091911%20denver%20gold%20forum%20-%20website.pdf

Kinross Gold - an underperformer looking better Revenues, CFs are improving, Production to Grow? =============================================== KGC / K.t / Kinross Gold ... update : 2-years : 10-days Updated I bought a healthy number of calls yesterday. I may be a bit early, but I thought the improving revenues and cash flow, made this compelling: 11.02.11 - Kinross reports 2011 third quarter results Record revenue exceeds $1 billion; margins up 50%, adjusted operating cash flow up 82% Adjusted net earnings up 134% Third quarter highlights Financial and operating results: Production(2): 647,983 gold equivalent ounces, a 13% increase over Q3 2010. Revenue: $1,069.2 million, a 45% increase over Q3 2010. Production cost of sales(3): $634 per gold equivalent ounce, compared with $517 in Q3 2010. Attributable margin(4): $1,012 per ounce sold, a 50% increase over Q3 2010. Adjusted operating cash flow(5): $421.6 million, an 82% increase over Q3 2010. Adjusted operating cash flow per share was $0.37 in Q3, compared with $0.30 in Q3 2010. Adjusted net earnings(1,5): $273.4 million, a 134% increase over Q3 2010. Adjusted net earnings per share were $0.24, compared with $0.15 in Q3 2010. Reported net earnings(1): $212.6 million, or $0.19 per share, compared with $540.9 million, or $0.71 per share, for Q3 2010. Q3 2010 earnings included significant one-time gains. Outlook: The Company expects to be within its 2011 forecast guidance for production (2.6 - 2.7 million attributable gold equivalent ounces) and production cost of sales ($565 - 610 per gold equivalent ounce). Growth projects: Kinross continues to advance its major growth projects at Tasiast, Fruta del Norte, Lobo-Marte, and Dvoinoye, all of which are proceeding on schedule. The Company has received approval of the Environmental Impact Assessment for early works at Tasiast and mobilization for construction has commenced. Capital commitments at Tasiast to the end of Q3 were $782 million. /source: http://kinrossgold.com/news-articles/2011/110211-q3-2011-results.aspx

PROFILE OF "A SHEEPLE" who bought into the dream - now she's trapped (but wiser for it) = = = Gemma Watkins is now ensnared by negative equity. The 27-year-old nurse bought her home in Coleford, Glos, for £92,500 at the top of the market in 2007. She borrowed £100,500 from Northern Rock on one of its now notorious Together mortgages, at 6.9 per cent. This loan allowed you to borrow up to 125 per cent of the value of the house. Miss Watkins used some cash to pay off a £12,500 personal loan and the rest to buy her flat. But her fixed-rate deal comes to an end in May, and she is struggling to find another lender. Miss Watkins believes this is because the value of her home has fallen by more than £7,000, and due to the structure of the mortgage, which combines a personal and home loan. She admits: ‘I was naive when I took on the mortgage.’ Ray Boulger, senior technical adviser with mortgage broker John Charcol, says she has little option but to stay with Northern Rock. But her rate should drop to 4.79 per cent when she switches to the bank’s standard variable rate. Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2061552/Young-buyers-trapped-homes-Bought-property-peak-years-ago.html#ixzz1dq9ikrNs REACTION: Stop looking at the small details see if you are in negative equity in 10 - 15 years time. Property especially in London today cost pennys compared to what it will cost in 20, 30, 40 years time marathon not a sprint ask Warren Buffett his favourite investment holding time "forever". - DAVID POTTS, LIVERPOOL, 15/11/2011 23:26 Yes, Mr Bozo. And you can be trapped for a lifetime too, because: "Anything can happen." "Together" Mortgage? = "Together Forever"?

PETRI DISHES ... and Second Homes Then there's this: Second Homes To make matters worse, it estimates a typical young person would have to spend £208,675 to buy a home on the ‘second’ rung of the ladder. And this is not the end of the financial torture of home buying in this country. The cost of moving is £27,410 – more than the average annual salary. This bill includes a 10 per cent deposit, legal and estate agency fees, removals and a survey. Pete Dockar, head of mortgages at HSBC, said: ‘First-time buyers can no longer rely on rising house prices to provide them with the deposit needed for their second purchase'. So if they don't buy - Who Will? Martians? (Ah, it will be those pesky BTLers, dragging the equity out of their existing portfolios.) So what will happen when rates rise eventually, and property prices slide?? The BTLers, and the foreigners who have been buying expensive new homes will "take the hit." The long run result: Young people are saved from "the hit" be being unable to buy now. What a relief ?!

There are still some Bears around Gold Price to Fall $150-$200 by Year-End, Hall Says Nov. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Tony Hall, chief investment officer of Duet Commodities Fund Ltd., discusses the outlook for gold and oil prices. He speaks with Bloomberg's Deirdre Bolton on Bloomberg Television's "Money Moves." (Source: Bloomberg) /video: http://www.bloomberg.com/video/80290084/ "MOney is going... back to cash." (says a friend of fiat)

I dont think so. Even if they said something like that, do you think JP would listen?

Surprise. Surprise ?? LD - JOHN PAULSEN GETTING OUT The filing has just been made, and was up-to-date as of 45 days ago. Paulsen was the largest holder of GLD, and he has sold 1/3 of his position (This was predicted here some time ago, and may have been behind one of those "big price drops" that we have seen.) Will he sell more? Probably. Will others follow his lead? Possibly. On the other hand, some may want to step in once it is confirmed he is out, since the "threat of Paulsen selling" will be removed.

Quite a good interview with Ron Paul

Let me ask my question another way: At what interest rate would the "cheaper to buy" look like "no cheaper to buy"? I think that might help to identify a possible trigger point. BTW: Congrats on the new addition, and expected new addition.

At £1.25m is it really cheaper to buy? Can you take me thru the maths on that? (cf what interest rate do you assume?)

It amazes me that rents have gone on rising while incomes have been rather stagnant. Does anyone want to speculate on why that is happening?

An excellent interview! (thnx for posting it) Earlier this year (when Gold stocks were higher) he said: "We've had a big long party. Maybe we should chill it a little bit." Speaking about mining stocks, especially Juniors. "There's a good chance (now) that we will have a real boom." But "mining stocks can be a lousy investment." And you have to be selective. They make some comments on banks relying "too much on trading activities", which a agree with.

Like saying something like: Buy & Hold "Beat the Crap" out of The Traders at GEI? Do you think he might do that (haha) Does my strategy work? Have a look for yourself: http://tinyurl.com/BeatingBH About $175,000 / 50% ahead of B&H is not too bad. Also with much less "risk"* *(By which I mean volatility of returns)

Dont be silly. Many had the same idea. Peter Schiff had it, and started a small fund that did well. I had it too (just look back at my many posting on HPC about how overvalued those securities were.) Many others, including some on GEI who post little but who I have met, did rather well shorting banks and mortgage lenders in the same period. Paulsen was lucky because he had a fund already in place, and had big help from Goldman's in arranging the trades so that he could go short on such a huge scale. That's how he made billions, not because he spotted an opportunity that no one else saw. I suggest you read the book from Michael Lewis called The Big Short, and you will get a better idea of how that scale was created. Paulsen was down almost 50% on his fund at one stage this year. So his luck may be running out.

It won't happen unless Open Interest starts rising. There are many signs of weakness in Gold and Silver prices, but "anything can happen" of course. And I am long too, albeit with some hedges in place.

I totally agree. And I am considering a blanket one week or one month suspension for anyone who abuses traders here until I stamp out this nonsense - see my "Important Message" on the DrB's Diary thread.

If he posts similar, he will be suspended for longer. There will be no "squabble" or ongoing abuse of traders here.

For you, I will - But some don't like shorter term "trading-related" comments here. And if we get more good traders joining GEI, I dont want them abused for posting here, so I will ask you to help discipline those so inclined, as I have had to do today. Agreed?

Yeah, but put it into context. The traders on GEI do not deserve that abuse - I have never called BAHAIs here F**ckers, though they do sometimes behave badly IMHO. (The BAHAIs went mad when I posted a cartoon about "Clawing the sky," and gave me much abuse. I never got an apology when the subsequent big drop came.) That cartoon was not as recklessly offensive as calling the founder of this FREE site: a F**cker for being a Trader. I am hardly "getting shreaded", and if anything: I am seeing more opportunities for the sort of disciplined Speculations that I undertake here. I am amazed that so few people have tried to really understand what I am doing. It really is not very complicated, and requires nothing more than some basic options knowledge, and a little chart reading. The discipline is the key thing: Like a monkey, don't take your hand off one branch until you are clinging to another. To translate: You can sell Silver or SLV when it looks toppy and weak, but you'd better soon replace it with something giving you similar upside, if you want to be sure you will not lose out on big price gains in Silver and Gold. Have you ever had Norcini tell you: "There are some disciplined traders out there who are massively outperforming Buy&Hold, but they are using some (simple) options strategies that I think you are too thick to understand." That's an established fact! Why doesn't he tell people? Why don't you and Pixel tell people? Okay. It happened once, and it has happened before, over the years - that Rogue firms commit fraud and bring their firms down. That is why there's an SIPC covering accounts up to $500,000 and the CME will move quickly, as it has done - to transfer account to other firms. None of the postings that I saw here, apart from my own, spoke about these important mechanisms that were in place to make the most of a bad situation, and help to minimizse potential losses. BTW: Anyone who replicated my Beating B&H strategies would have been totally unscathed, since everything I do is in a Stock account, rather than a Futures account. MFG clients were nearly all on the futures side, from my understanding. Also: There are (BIG) risks in holding physical silver too, which I NEVER hear about from the BAHAI crowd. Maybe I should be like Pixel, and make half of my postings on GEI about how the BAHAIs are taking risks that they are not discussing, and call them F**ckers for doing that. NO. I will not say that, because I do not believe it. There's plenty of room on GEI for people with different approaches, so long as there is mutual respect.

I am trying a new title: GOLD - "the long term money" Perhaps that will attract more agreement than a mention of B&H