drbubb

Yee Gads ! You are putting words in my mouth. A core mission of GEI (who else can decide this?), is to help traders improve their trading capabilities. I do not want to scare off good traders from joining us here by encouraging the assumption that Buy&Hold is the only way. There are people who make their living off trading, and those are the ones that I would especially like to join us. So buying normally requires selling first. If you have a nice healthy income, with surplus cash, then you are lucky. Don't be arrogant enough to assume that everyone else "should be the same." GEI is big enough to cater to both, I reckon. "You and Pixel need to call a truce before the forum degenerates completely. " ? Huh ? Is it possible you have forgotten who founded this website? As I said, I would like Pixel to stay, since I think his overall contribution here is clearly positive. But he needs to stop abusing traders. Calling them all F**ckers is hardly the sort of name-calling I can tolerate. == == Good sensible post, Concrete Jungle

Okay, Pixel, that does it ! I have just suspended you for 24 Hours for an inappropriate posting (just above) I warned you 2-3 days ago, and now you make a post like that. I do not consider this sort of post appropriate for the sort of respectful community that I want to build on GEI. I will ask others who may read the Gambling/Trading thread ( Post#73 ) how long I should suspend next time if/when you return and make a similar posting here.

Ah yeah, But some here object to negative comments warning about a short term dip. There have been many such moments, and they help create buying opportunities. But some Gold purists worry that such comments will "scare people off the bandwagon."

Okay. I changed the title to : "GOLD - with a Buy & Hold emphasis" Any objections? What should the subtitle be? (if anything) "Occasional Trading ideas welcome" ? "Identifying top-up points" ? "Keeping the confidence, Staying the course" ? This old chart from page 1, is still relevant, isn't it: I feel like the BAHAIs and BAHAHs might both be happier now that I have re-titled the other thread: "Beating Buy&Hold - thru Disciplined Speculation" I think everyone here should be statisfied with that Title, and not feel like they have to Jump in every time I post something to try and tell people that "Buy and Hold could be better for the average person, who may not be a discipline speculator."

("Chat, trade, and invest your way to a Brighter and Greener Future.") About Disciplined Intelligent Speculation from the Trading/Gambling thread: Post#62 It is NOT the same process. + When you "Gamble", you are just betting, ie testing your luck. + When you make an "Intelligent Speculation", you have done your homework first, analyzing things like: a company's fundamentals, the technical position of its stock price, and volume flowing in, or out of its stock. And you intend to manage the position (using stops, or other disciplines) once the trade is in place. + "Intelligent hedging", is yet another thing, where you aim to hold onto an investment position or longer term trade, but reduce the inherent price risk, through options structures, or arbitrage trades. (These "hedges" can be simple or complicated.) Sadly, I think some here do not understand what work is needed to make an intelligent speculation, and so they disrespect it, and consider it akin to gambling. Here's a key point: Just because an outcome is not certain, and you are taking some probability risk on the outcome, it does not mean you are gambling. Perhaps this analogy with help: + If you go to Vegas and bet on a slot machine, you are gambling, + If you are the house and own the slot machines, you are taking a calculated risk spread over many slot machines, where you have a high expectation of making a positive return after a large number of your customers gambling transactions If the odds are in you favor, and you are relying on the rules of the game (and your homework to improve youyr probability of gaining a profit), you have moved beyond a mere Gamble which relies upon pure chance. In other words, a net positive return over a large number of transactions is an indication you have moved beyond gambling. I hope the following statement "rings true" to many here and shows more clearly what I mean: "I thought I was making Intelligent Speculations, but after a dozen transactions I realised I was Just Gambling." For someone who makes a statement like that, they need to rethink their trading methods and improve their technique in selecting trades, doing a better form of "homework" before trading, and/or managing the trades better once they are in place. One of the important missions of GEI is to help in this learning and refining process. (As it says in the logo, GEI's core mission is to help people: "Chat, trade, and invest your way to a Brighter and Greener Future.")

Smart and lucky. I have met two people who know him, and they both said he was a mediocre Fund manager, who got lucky borrowing someone else's idea and having Goldman's help. If the Fund goes down, he and the managers own about half the shares, so they can keep some of the GLD shares - but probably not all. Watch for some selling news soon - it may be happening today.

Did anyone else laugh when they saw this report? America's Employment plan - per JSmineset (right on, Jim !) Unfortunately, there seem to be quite a few Warmongers running for high office

Yeah. It takes FAITH to be a true BAHAI .... "The Golden Path leads to Heaven." "...the Bahá'í Faith is today among the fastest-growing of the world's religions. With more than five million followers..." /see: http://www.bahai.org/faq/facts/bahai_faith

ARE YOU A BAHAI ? Well, I think we are in basic agreement. My main point is: + Buy & Hold is (probably) Dead in the stock market + Buy & Hold is alive and well in the Gold market, because must who B&H think it is GUARANTEED that gold is going up in the long run. My view is: that is very possible, even likely, but NOT guaranteed gold will go on rising for sometime more... for a long list of reasons. If you wanted to call yourself a Buy-And-Hold-And-Hedge-Sometimes (BAHAHS) investor in Gold, I would agree that is a smarter way to play it, if you have some useful timing tools, than pure Buy-And-Hold-Only (BAHO)* which I reckon will someday "run off a cliff", but maybe not until Gold-$3000, Gold-$5000, or some higher figure. BAHO's will go Boo-Hoo someday IMHO. Road Runners hedge and trade around a core Long position, but are not doctrinaire: "Mee-Beep !". *alternatively: Buy-And-Hold-All-In (BAHAI), not to be confused with Bob Hoye ("Ba-Hoi" in chinese)

Yeah. I get your point. But here's the logic that I think is dangerous: "Gold is only going to rise in the long term. I am a long term INVESTOR in gold. Therefore, I will be fine in the long term, no matter when I buy gold. And no matter what I pay." I mostly agree that gold will rise from here. But it is dangerous thinking. People who bought gold at $800 in 1980 could have said that too. And they would have been "right" so far, but with a rather huge drawdown to $252 along the way. It wasn't long ago that firms like Merrill Lynch were out pushing the idea that it was fine to INVEST in stocks for the long term, and that people could build a safe pension fund investing in blue chip stocks. That notion may have died in 2008.

So that's £1000 per week, and at 5% yield implies a Property worth £ 1 million. Have I got that right? I have a hard time imagining how the UK can sustain prices that high.

You are on potentially dangerous ground here. You are taking for granted that New Higher Highs on Gold are ahead, and so it is safe to be an "investor" rather than a "Trader." I believe so too, but I take NOTHING for granted - long experience has taught me so. For this reason, I am happy to replace some of my longs with: Cash-plus-in-the-money-Calls. This is not because I am a "Trader", but rather because I want some protection from Price Risk at such times. In fact, this policy allows me to stay with the long term trend, and remain safe, if it surprises me and breaks down. Instead of knocking it, try understanding the strategy. It may save your wealth someday.

Looks like a "throw-over." After a test of the highs, these often signal a big reversal ahead

How about: Food..., Energy..., Guns "If you really need Gold, you will need Lead more." NOTE these key facts: + Gold is rising on FALLING open interest and light volume in GLD + Silver is lagging behind gold I can understand why Gold is rising, but I cannot help but notice the terchnical weakness in the current rise. Watch what I am doing on the Beating B&H thread. I loaded up the truck near $1600, and am lightening up a bit now. I have to ask: Who has called the Gold and Silver markets well this year? I think the perma-bulls have mixed returns. I would be interested to see how they would do with a B&H or Beating B&H portfolio.

In Hong Kong: New Tax = Lower Rents Per today's SCMP: (1) Owners rush for tenants to avoid penalty A stamp tax to curb flipping has caused rents to plunge 18 per cent in Tai Wai and Tuen Mun Speculators who bought new flats before (after?) last November's introduction of stamp-duty penalties for quick resales face a tough decision. With delivery of their flats now falling due, they must sell and be hit with extra stamp duty of up to 15 per cent, or find tenants so they can sell later and avoid the extra duty. The ensuing competition among such speculators to secure tenants has seen rents plunge byb as much as 18 per cent in Tai Wai and Tuen Mun, property agents say. Overall rents have started to ease, and dipped 1.3 per cent last month from September, says Ricacorp. (2) Bears on Rise in Home market "Up to October 30, prices were down 2.8% from the peak, but researchers at Morgan Stanley (MS) expect a sharper decline as mortgage rates rise. HK banks have raised effective mortgage rates three times - to 2.9 per cent from 0.8 per cent - in the last six months. The increases were driven by a rising loan-to-deposit ratio, which reached 86.6 per cent by September." MS expects nominal mortgage rates to hit 5 per cent by the end of next year... Thus, we expect property prices to fall by more than 10 per cent." === === Plenty of Bearish sentiments, but limited falls so far. Let's see if those predictions of rising interest rates come true. The US is talking about continue near zero rates through 2012. So they must be wrong, or HK will follow a divurgent path, for the forecasts to be right

From the Trading-or-Gambling thread, This goes to the Core Mission of GEI:

I think much might depend on the location... It does sound like you can afford to buy, so if the house values falls and you slide into negative equity, you will not necessarily be trapped. Rising rents was one reason that I recently had a serious look at buying (in London) over the last few weeks. In the end, I decided not to buy, and the probably "temporary" nature of rent increases was one of the reasons. Perhaps the report below will explain things more clearly... Will we see a post-olympics crash in london property? maybe

Will we see a post-olympics crash in london property? maybe

REALISATIONS ARE DAWNING - The Joy of Smaller Living JMG : "It's a problem woven into the stories we tell." For Americans: "It is worth remembering that Europe runs itself on 1/3 as much oil as the US... and they have a better standard of living, and better health care." === === How about accepting a new narrative: Shrinking smart is better than growing dumb. Then we can embrace the reality that we need to live our lives while consuming: less energy, less resources, and borrowing less money. But that does not necessarily involve a lower overall quality of life. Here's the challenge: how can we live better while wasting less of everything that is becoming in short supply.

Ray Dalio's 11 Favorite Stock Picks October 5, 2011 : includes: AMAT, AXP, CSC, EEM, GE, MSFT, NTAP, NVLS, PH, SPY, VWO Ray Dalio is the President and Chief Investment Officer of Bridgewater Associates. His long-term annual returns average 15% net. Even in the economic collapse of 2008, his funds earned approximately 9% returns. Dalio uses a strategy that focuses on the process behind the economics. In other words, he looked at the 2008 recession as the inevitable outcome of having incomes that were not enough to manage debt. Taking this a step further, he embraced 2009 and 2010 as years of bankruptcies and restructuring, and through this anticipation was able to profit from it. Here are Ray Dalio’s 11 favorite stocks at the end of June 2011: http://seekingalpha.com/article/297842-ray-dalio-s-11-favorite-stock-picks

Ray Dalio Explains Why Everyone's At Each Other's Throats Right Now Social unrest at a time like this is a "classic" reaction to deleveraging, according to billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio. About one half of the countries in world, including the U.S. and other debtor nations, including Greece, Spain, and Italy, are in a cycle of "deleveraging" right now. The other half, including Brazil, India, and China, conversely, are leveraging up. Dalio describes a debtor nation thusly: They spent years overspending, financed by their government's borrowing They are in the process of deleveraging debt As a result, they are being forced to lower their debt relative to their income levels, constrain spending levels and make improvements in the job market Some are worse off than others. Greece, Spain and Italy, for example, can’t print money to pay off their debts. To make up for slow credit growth, they will have decade-long depressions and debt defaults. The U.S. is trading like a country in decline It's not surprising that a debtor nation like ours is experiencing social unrest, explains Dalio in the Financial Times, Read more: http://articles.businessinsider.com/2011-10-25/wall_street/30319383_1_deleveraging-debtor-ray-dalio#ixzz1cJO7WpaP HOW DOES THE US GET OUT OF A DECLINE ?? we might try: His most fundamental principle; "Truth —more precisely, an accurate understanding of reality— is the essential foundation for producing good outcomes." Truth... is something sadly lacking in Politicians. They think they cannot get elected if they ask voters to face the harsh facts. Maybe the opposite is true, and voters will demand a different standard and insist that politicians face tough issues (as Ron Paul is doing) “Like the issue of…’Is it better to have austerity or stimulus?’ Well, the basic problem there is that we’re not having a quality conversation on the subject.” –Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates, on the Charlie Rose program, October 20, 2011 Read more: http://articles.businessinsider.com/2011-10-27/markets/30327527_1_austerity-stimulus-food-stamp#ixzz1cJQ71zv1

... From the thread : What good are Traders ? ...

It is the TIMING of the big quakes, and that so many can be fit into 37 year cycle patterns, that I find so compelling. That, and the usefulness of an apparent half-cycle. I wish I had more data, but the data we do have is compelling, suggesting that the number of Earthquakes is rising towards the mid-cycle high (expecting in 2015-16) "By the way, statistically, 95% of all the years quakes will fit within two standard deviations of the average, which according to the USGS, is 18 per year." If you look at the way the chart line moves year to year, it should be completely obvious that the year-to-year numbers are not simply random, but that that data contains trends, and that it ebbs and flows. This is what made me think it could be cyclical. Check out the TIMING data: Post #63 : http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=14951&st=60 It didn't discover the 37 year Earthquake Cycle, but I do think you can observe such a pattern in the data.

That is exactly why I am reviewing this material - So we can spot what is "normal", and what is unusual. So far, we have moved beyond the "normal" of 1980-2009. But this could be only a normal cycle, which might peak in 2015-16. . . . But if the number of Earthquakes (of 7.0-8.9) moves far beyond 22-24, then we may be seeing something abnormal. Time will tell.

I suggest you look at the data on the other thread, which clearly supports the existing theory of a 37 year Earthquake cycle. The only fine-tuning that I am suggesting is that we could see a mid-cycle peak in 2015-16 or so - these mid-cycle periods have often brought some major quakes, tsunamis, and volcanoes. I have a degree from Harvard with a minor in economics (having started out as a math major with excellent grades in coursework in that field.) My partner has a Phd in psychology (Dr XXXX) from Oxford, and did plenty of statistical work in writing her thesis. She thinks there might be something in the summary work I have done so far. I invite JD to mention his credentials, and I wonder how impressive they may be? His comments so far, do not impress me, so don't hold your breath. On the other thread, I have already pointed to some references that discuss Cycles of Earthquakes, and they are consistent with my findings and timing ideas.