drbubb

Perhaps she thinks she is doing her job by lying thru her teeth Rightmove today (Monday) announced a 3.4% drop in London asking prices. And that's 3% down / -GBP 14,400 in a single month. It looks like Crash Cruise speed is coming back... and in a hurry Rightmove: Shipside adds: “We’re in a ‘limbo-land’, where a restricted number of motivated sellers are trying to match themselves up with the similarly restricted number of financially capable buyers. In many parts of the country transaction levels are limited to the number of sellers who are willing to price aggressively below the competition and can afford to do deals. It seems that this stalemate can continue indefinitely, until it is broken either by an improvement in upside factors, such as a relaxation of mortgage finance, or by a further marked deterioration in employment and a corresponding increase in forced sales at bargain-basement prices.” . . . Shipside comments: “We are four years into this journey, and it still looks like a long road ahead. The UK does not have the chronic over-supply of property seen in many other countries, due to restrictive planning laws and tight central control of local government finances, leading to low levels of new build in both social housing and the private sector. Demand for housing is high due to demographic changes, including net immigration, boosting household numbers. These factors give our housing market more balance and stability, but perversely prevent a possibly quicker but more painful route to recovery via lower prices with higher transaction volumes.” (In other words, prices are too high - but the structure of tight supply does not allow a fast correction. Let's get the panic rolling now, so this fat greasy pig can slide down the shoot to its inevitable fate.) "... a restricted number of motivated sellers" "Demand for housing is high due to demographic changes, including net immigration, boosting household numbers." He knows but doesnt say: Overly-generous housing benefits boosted household formations, and that trend may be set to change now. And supply will rise if banking scares and austerity-constrained incomes can increase the number of "motivated sellers."

DOWN Month-on-month too House Prices Decline to a 19-Month Low as Loan Restrictions Deter Buyers By Scott Hamilton - Aug 11, 2011 U.K. house prices fell to the lowest level in more than 1 1/2 years last month as banks’ requests for larger deposits deterred first-time buyers, Acadametrics Ltd. and LSL Property Services Plc said. The average price of a home in England and Wales fell 0.1 percent from June to 217,300 pounds ($351,700), the lowest since December 2009, the groups estimated in an e-mailed report in London today. Prices dropped 2.6 percent from a year earlier. Despite lower rates, I think prices will be LOWER at year end, and maybe even speeding lower at Crash Cruise Speed (CCS)

I don't disagree, but I am interested in what measure you are using to make that comment?

On trading Gold, or Stocks? He has many interesting observations on both markets, and you can use them in your own trading. But that doesn't mean you should following his trading signals slavishly. I think you will find that many good investors respect his opinions and market commentary. For instance, I saw a long period of difficult trading after 2000. Few others got that right.

I heard him admit on Bloomberg this week that he had been wrong about Gold for a long time. He said: "I might hold onto Gold now, but I wouldn't be buying any more now at this price."

Welcome, B-Real. It's good to see you posting here. Watch the ratio between Silver and Gold, there are times that Silver is a better buy. And eventually you may want to learn more about options

His headline is: "Gold's Cyclical 34 Month Run is about to End" Chart: Makes sense to me, I have been talking about an imminent intermediate Gold peak on the "Gold-like-Silver" thread. My best current guess is we can see that peak in place before next Friday's option expiry - and there's even a chance that we just saw it at $1805. I think all this talk of "QE3 forever" and starting soon - is just not right. Too many people who have jumped on every bandwagon, and especially the bandwagons that have run off the road into the ditch, have embraced that thinking too. (Just because Marc Faber and Jim Puplava have spoken about it, does not mean it will happen.) Or it may happen AFTER a very nasty correction in Gold and other commodities. That is, we could see some like we saw in late 2008, before we get something like QE3. The debate in Washington is changing, and changing fast - Can you not see that?

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PRICE CUTS NOT REAL - only the press are falling for the "discounts"... until now. HK Standard has reported this sensibly, thank goodness Examples of overpricing can easily be found around the market. A flat owner chopped HK$2 million - or 14 percent - off the asking price before selling a 1,176-square-foot unit at City Garden in North Point for HK$11 million, or HK$9,354 per square foot. The discount may seem big, but neighboring flats sold recently at HK$9,047 psf on average. That mean s the new owner of the flat actually paid 3.3 percent higher than market price. Another homeowner lopped HK$340,000, or 7.4 percent, off before selling an 846-sq-ft apartment at Belvedere Garden in Tsuen Wan for HK$4.26 million, or HK$5,035 psf. Neighboring flats are priced at an average of HK$4,830 psf - meaning this purchaser shelled out 4.2 percent more. "The price slashing is not really real, and it cannot truly reflect the decrease in property prices, which is only around 5 percent from the start of the year," Hui said /more: http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail.asp?we_cat=16&art_id=114025&sid=33353435&con_type=3&d_str=&fc=7

CONFUSION? - Or Opportunity? Bulls and Bears can both find some solace in the SCMP and HKS these days BEARS might like this: "Reacting to the negative sentiment, some wary local property investors had begun offering discounts of 5 to 10 percent on homes." - Wed. SCMP, P1 "Stocks turmoil as new panic hits US, Europe." - Thu. HKS, Pg1 BULLS might like these: "... but there were no signs so far of bigger foreign investors seeking to sell their residential or commercial properties at discounted prices." - Wed. SCMP, P1 (second part of sentence, above) "Hong Kong is the number one destination for international businesses." - Wed. SCMP, P1 (same article) "Rents for luxury properties in Hong Kong have grown at twice the rate of the mass market thsi year as prospective buyers opt to lease instead..." "...Rents for luxury residential flats had risen between 2pc and 3pc a month this year, compared with rises of between 1pc and 1.5pc in the mass market." "Owners were now asking for rent increases of between 20 pc and 30 pc... and some expatriates were still willing to pay because they did not want to relocate." - Wed. SCMP, P2 (Fed's decision) "US Fed's low risk pledge is a double-edge prospect for HK" "Hong Kong automatically inherits US interest rates. So if the Fed is going to keep its short term rate at zero for another two years, it means HK's own benchmark one month Hibor rate will stay someshere close to its current 0.22 per cent level until at least the middle of 2013. That's good news for anyone paying off a mortgage... This will support Hong Kong property prices." - Thu. SCMP Monitor column, B10 YOU PAY YOUR MONEY, and you take your choice

That's a great video - they should use it on their road shows in Hong Kong Luxury flats 'will start a renaissance' Feb 4 2011 By Poppy Bradbury, Ealing Gazette FLATS which are part of a new development promising to breathe life back into Ealing are going on sale to the public. Dickens Yard, located behind the town hall in The Broadway, will offer 698 luxury apartments set around a square of shops, cafes and restaurants. With the closure of HMV on Sunday and many other shops having disappeared in recent years, it is hoped Dickens Yard will revitalise the area. The Mayor of Ealing, Rajinder Mann, joined council leader Julian Bell and Berkeley Homes chairman Tony Pidgley at the unveiling of the marketing suite at The Old Fire Station last Thursday; it opens to the public tomorrow. Mr Bell said: "We have long held an aspiration to see Dickens Yard get off the ground and start a renaissance which will deliver a legacy for the people of Ealing."

That's a great video - they should use it on their road shows in Hong Kong Luxury flats 'will start a renaissance' Feb 4 2011 By Poppy Bradbury, Ealing Gazette FLATS which are part of a new development promising to breathe life back into Ealing are going on sale to the public. Dickens Yard, located behind the town hall in The Broadway, will offer 698 luxury apartments set around a square of shops, cafes and restaurants. With the closure of HMV on Sunday and many other shops having disappeared in recent years, it is hoped Dickens Yard will revitalise the area. The Mayor of Ealing, Rajinder Mann, joined council leader Julian Bell and Berkeley Homes chairman Tony Pidgley at the unveiling of the marketing suite at The Old Fire Station last Thursday; it opens to the public tomorrow. Mr Bell said: "We have long held an aspiration to see Dickens Yard get off the ground and start a renaissance which will deliver a legacy for the people of Ealing."

The number of households grew as household size shrank, but that trend may be set for reversal

For existing property owners, who can sell property they already own, to buy a new one- your comment makes some sense. But not for FTBers

The Road of dependency-on-the-state leads to Fascism. Fortunately, there is an alternative : Enlightened community involvement ========================================================================= If we try to stay in the bubble of spiritual self-sufficiency, the hurting of the world sneaks in as various of the new diseases, forcing itself upon our consciousness. Consider, for example, two of the most significant of the new diseases, MCS (multiple chemical sensitivities) and electromagnetic sensitivity. Toxic chemicals and EMFs are the physicalization of our negativity, as well as the byproduct of our mindset of separation that sees nature as an indifferent reservoir for our wastes. For the chemically and electromagnetically sensitive, no amount of retreat is enough. Trying to avoid negativity, we have to retreat further and further, until the repeated intrusion of the world upon our serenity makes us realize we have to cleanse the whole world of toxic chemicals and all they represent, not just avoid them. The yogic teaching, "Don't try to cover the world with leather, just wear shoes," served us well in the age of spiritual self-sufficiency, but it serves no longer, especially if taken to mean, "Heal thyself; the world is not your responsibility." That was true, for a time. It was medicine. It healed us of self-rejection and self-sacrifice. It was a necessary stage toward the next step, when we do seek to heal the world - not as an act of self-sacrifice, not at the cost of our own well-being, but as a necessary step in our own self-healing. Through our relationship to the other we heal ourselves. There is no other way. This realization often manifests as a desire to find one's true purpose in life, one's service to the world. Such a purpose is never just about the separate egoic self. It is always about service; it is about one's gifts and how to give them. Purpose is about gift and relationship. The emerging state of vitality, joy, and love that humanity is entering is not a place where we can abide for long on our own. We need each other. /source: http://richardalanmiller.com/ram/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=346&Itemid=426

From the Main HPC thread This points out the big LIE here: People say: "Gold is a hedge for inflation." It isn't. Gold prices have run far ahead of inflation. You can buy a much better "Man's suit" with an ounce of gold now, than you could 3-5 years ago. And since if ran ahead of inflation, it can fall back too, even if inflation rises. It is tough to buy gold, since monetary policy has robbed people of a return on their savings, and that is why money has flowed into gold.

This points out the big LIE here: People say: "Gold is a hedge for inflation." It isn't. Gold prices have run far ahead of inflation. You can buy a much better "Man's suit" with an ounce of gold now, than you could 3-5 years ago. And since if ran ahead of inflation, it can fall back too, even if inflation rises. It is tough to buy gold, since monetary policy has robbed people of a return on their savings, and that is why money has flowed into gold.

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Housing sales hit by falling stock market "Housing sales in the secondary market dropped 23 per cent on the weekend as market sentiment was hit by tumbling stock prices around the globe and the announcement that the United States had lost its top-tier AAA credit rating from Standard&Poor's for the first time." Hang Seng Index / HK1804580 ... Update: http://tinyurl.com/HSI610d xx "A total of 24 transactions were recorded at 10 major estates on Saturday and yesterday, down 23 percent from the previous week, according to estate agency Midland Realty. Although there were no signs so far of panic selling, agents said owners had cut asking prices by as much as 13 per cent." The article goes on to talk about: + An owner of a 1,029 sf flat at Taikoo Shing selling his flat for HK$10.4 million, or HK$10,107 per sf*, down from the original asking price of HK$12 million + Tomorrow's auction of a large luxury site at Sha Tin should be a good indicator of (builders') market sentiment - Expected price is HK$7- 9 billion. == == == *I note that: the average selling price, as reported by Centaline was $9,855.94 psf : index : chart (the old asking price seems far too high, so the reported "price drop" now looks exaggerated)

I started saving money for one in Malaysia. But have only converted enough to pay for 25% so far Let's see if we get that Dollar short squeeze I have mentioned

Might hit $1.oo again... or even $0.75

Housing-related EXCERPTS He might be right... eventually The predicted housing price slide has not really happened yet in Greater London, where there are about 3 million homes - thanks to the magnetic power of London jobs, and also the convenience of living in London, which is a great "walkable" city. Ultra-low interest rates (at ZIRP, they can hardly go lower) have also been a great saving grace for UK homeowners. Also helpful has been an extremely generous housing benefits policy, making it easy for landlords to get tenants, where the state pays market rents. But these rents may be capped in the future, helping to push state-supported tenants out of the more expensive areas, like central London. If rents fall there, it could undermine property prices. A correction in "UK, Outside London" (where there are 19 million homes) is now well underway: Might the housing correction soon spread to London, as austerity at last hits, as the FOFP post anticipated ?

So far, the Indices are holding up well In fact, the "Outside London" price managed to push slightly above the 12 month's Moving Average at £128,990. I think this will prove very temporary.

Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Hometrack %/ Nt'wide H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx M : : 238,874 : 430,936 : 153,700 - 0.1% / 167,208 = n/a = 160,519 162,344 : £164,776 :+ 0.50% :145.0% : J. : : 240,394 : 438,622 : 153,550 - 0.1% / 168,205 = n/a = 163,049 163,642 : £165,924 :+ 0.70% :144.9% : Jl : : 236,597 : 432,641 : 153,400 - 0.1% / 168,731 = n/a = 163,981 164,714 : £166,723 :+ 0.48% :141.9% : ===================================== mom: - 1.58% : - 1.36% : Est.DI: 141.9% / +0.31% = n/a = :+0.57% :+0.65% : + 0.70% Halifax seems to have modified its seasonally adjusted figures once again Here's the most recent version... J'10 168,390 Feb 166,928 Mar 168,435 Apr 168,593 May 167,207 Jun 165,686 Jul 167,497 Aug 168,124 Sep 161,974 Oct 164,949 Nov 164,622 Dec 162,803 J'11 164,145 Feb 162,697 Mar 162,712 Apr 160,393 May 161,039 Jun 163,430 Jul 163,981