drbubb

There is a very real chance that such COMPLACENCY will get shaken before this move is done.

It is really simple to see the BIG PICTURE: Parabolic moves are followed by sharp drops, and that is what we are into now.

How are the Buy-and-Holders doing today ? COPPER, Silver, and Gold are all Falling Hard. SILVER IS NOW BELOW $33, and $30 looks possible, even within today

Welcome, GlassBubble. You might consider starting a thread here, describing some of the CHALLENGES that you see from a possible currency debasement, and other coming economic disruptions. Whatever the challenges may be, I think that other GEI members would relate to them, and they may have some interesting suggestions

Seasonal comparisons show a market that is "running out of momentum":

MORE Seasons... Mo / Aver. :: =2004= : =2005= : =2006= : =2007 : =2008= : =2009 : =2010= : =2011= : J. : - 0.38%:: +0.29%: - 0.47%: - 0.45%: - 0.03%: - 1.50%: - 0.37%: -0.11% : -0.33% : F. : +0.68%:: +2.76%: +0.29%: +1.17%: +1.85%: +0.28%: -1.08%: -0.51% : +0.06% : M.: +1.23%:: +2.76%: +0.98%: +2.08%: +1.75%: -0.83%: +0.38%: +1.53% : +1.25% : A.: +1.50%:: +2.72%: +1.23%: +2.18%: +2.23%: -0.06%: +0.29%: +1.88% : +0.31% : M.: +0.53%:: +2.59%: +0.61%: +0.68%: +0.62%: -2.56%: +1.09%: -0.06% : ? ? ? ? : J. : +0.11%:: +1.74%: +0.55%: - 0.14%: +0.70%: -1.63%: +0.12%: -0.55% : ? ? ? ? : ========== SB +3.26%:: +8.07%: +2.82%: +4.94%: +4.60%: -3.45%: +1.76%: +3.41% : 1.56% : *Seasonal bounce: March-May. (May not included yet in 2011.) 2011 seems to be running well below the seasonal average.

Maybe. Just maybe. We cannot be certain of that. And if / when wages rise, the rise may be accompanied by higher rates - which would undermine house prices.

yeah. : BDEV-chart Resistance is about 116-118p Old high there is being retested on lighter volume

UK property prices may drop by as much as 20pc - says headline in Bloomberg article "UK house prices adjusted for inflation may drop as much as 20 per cent in the next five years as the BofE raises interest rates and regulators tighten lending rules, the National Institute for Economic and Social Research said." + Real house prices are overvalued by 10 pc + Combined impact of rising rates,a nd tighter mortgage rules may cut prices a further 10 pc + The key lending rate is at a record low of 0.5pc, but with 2011 inflation forecast to rise from 3.8 pc to 4.5 pc, this is unsustainable

Seasonal note added... Mo / 2009 : =2010 : =2011 : J. : =n / a : -0.11% : -0.33% : F. :- 1.08%: -0.51% : +0.06% : M.:+ 0.38%: +1.53% : +1.25% : A.:+ 0.29%: +1.88% : +0.31% : M.:+ 1.09%: -0.06% : J. :+ 0.12%: -0.55% : ========== SB +1.76%: +3.41% : 1.56% : *Seasonal bounce: March-May. (May not included yet in 2011.) Could be the weakest bounce in the 3 year period.

The offers need to start coming down, if the market is going to slide. I reckon it will happen, but there's no real evidence in the data... yet. Here are the Month-on-month changes in NSA - H&N Index Mo / 2009 : =2010 : =2011 : J. : =n / a : -0.11% : -0.33% : F. :- 1.08%: -0.51% : +0.06% : M.:+ 0.38%: +1.53% : +1.25% : A.:+ 0.29%: +1.88% : +0.31% : M.:+ 1.09%: -0.06% : J. :+ 0.12%: -0.55% : ========== SB +1.76%: +3.41% : 1.56% : *Seasonal bounce: March-May. (May not included yet in 2011.) Could be the weakest bounce in the 3 year period. Useful comparison

The offers need to start coming down, if the market is going to slide. I reckon it will happen, but there's no real evidence in the data... yet. Here are the Month-on-month changes in NSA - H&N Index Mo : 2009 : =2010= : =2011= : J. : = n/a= : -0.11% : - 0.33% : F. :- 1.08%: -0.51% : +0.06% : M.:+ 0.38%: +1.53% : +1.25% : A.:+ 0.29%: +1.88% : +0.31% : M.:+ 1.09%: -0.06% : J. :+ 0.12%: -0.55% :

We may have another before the end of May (2011)

Over at HP-Hysteria, you can find comments like this: I like the way the Lloyds spokesman describes this as "a trend of "modest decline"". -1.4% MoM is equivalent to an annualised fall of around 15.6%. A bit like the way the Nationwide's negative numbers are signs of a market "stagnating" The poor darlings do not realise that the NSA figure actually went up ! No wonder they find themselves continually "on the wrong side", they do not bother to pay attention to what is really happening. It takes too much time & effort, I suppose

Haven't been there for a long time, are they abusing me for being too Bearish? The year is far from over. And the -1.55% drop in the Halifax.SA index suggests some downside from here.

On closer look - It is NOT A BIG SHOCK. The H&N Index actually rose by +0.31% for the month, so the data will not undermine confidence too much for those who look at it closely. But there does remain a bid vulnerability in the high asking prices. The "Delusion index" is near 144%, which is near record levels. There is plenty of room for asking prices to begin to fall... Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Hometrack %/ Nt'wide H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx 2011 J. : : 223,122 : 413,259 : 154,300 - 0.5% / 161,211 = n/a = 164,173 161,470 : £161,341 :- 0.33% :138.3% : F. : : 230,030 : 430,680 : 154,000 - 0.2% / 161,183 = n/a = 162,657 161,680 : £161,432 :+ 0.06% :142.5% : M : : 231,790 : 424,307 : 153,850 - 0.1% / 164,751 = n/a = 162,912 162,151 : £163,451 :+ 1.25% :141.8% : A : : 235,822 : 431,013 : 153,850 + 0.0% / 165,609 = n/a = 160,395 162,303 : £163,956 :+ 0.31% :143.8% : ===================================== mom : + 1.7% : + 1.6% : Est.DI: 143.8% / +0.52%: = n/a = :-1.55% :+0.09% :+ 0.31%

REALITY ... has been slow in coming back. It may surprise people how quickly it now intrudes into even London !

... Certainly not even on houses. Which were overvalued and way too popular (at least compared to Gold mining shares.)

I think if I were British living in London, I would be tempted to go and wear the Sandwich Board. It is a fresh argument (and much needed!) that the Press might even cover.

How long before we see this?: PROTEST SIGN... Carried in front of No.10 ============================= "I AM SAVER - I AM BEING ROBBED... SO MY LANDLORD CAN SURVIVE, AND ROB ME AGAIN THRU HIGH RENT !" END Ultra-low Rates ! They are ruining the UK

How long before we see this?: PROTEST SIGN... Carried in front of No.10 ============================= "I AM SAVER - I AM BEING ROBBED... SO MY LANDLORD CAN SURVIVE, AND ROB ME AGAIN THRU HIGH RENT !" END Ultra-low Rates ! They are ruining the UK

Somebody is selling! Did you see that MASSIVE VOLUME yesterday? ... GLD chart I don't think the shorts are adding here, they are mostly covering now (I would have thought.) Piper says, "Relax. $5000 is coming." But I say: Don't miss those mouth-watering opportunities. Some strict Buy&Holders are too weighed down by their ideology. I noticed that many here were flexible enough to switch from Silver to Gold near the $50 peak. Well done. And even better done, if you switched to Platinum, or hedged with some puts.

... from the JS thread ...

Thank goodness. I thought I had unknowingly insulted you in some way.

I think it is a useful source of confirmation. For example, I try to keep an even-handed debate going here about the merits of holding precious metals. When prices are rising at the steadfast bulls are aggressively abusing the even-handed comments, it is often a sign of an approaching top. The ever-useful Fitkid has been a good bellwether in this regard. Here's an example of the sort of comment that appeared on my thread about a $50 Top In Silver: Not truly aggressive towards the others, but it does show an unshakable complacency, quite clearly.