drbubb

Very Good chart ! A copy of this will go into the Favorite CHARTS thread, see Link below the Header

I thought it was acceptable to use up to X seconds, without permission. Does anyone know what X is?

Gold, GATA, and manipulation Questions, Comments are welcome. Please post them here: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....80&start=80

Great charts ! It's nice to see "Green Energy" beating HPC. But I think that is do to interest in the search terms, rather than in the related websites. It is interesting to see that "stock market crash" searches return to the same level as "house price crash", after each big drop, as fears fade away. == == == Commercial property is cyclical too, and may have a TRAP of its own coming, as this EXCERPT suggests: UK property: 50 years of going in cycles Can data from half a century of recessions predict UK property trends? EXCERPTS: Although we have seen plenty of property ups and downs over the past half century, this time looks different. Never before have we faced trying to rebuild our economy from the ruins of a global credit crunch that brought several of our biggest banks to their knees and prompted the Bank of England to slash interest rates to near zero and pump £200bn into the economy. As the effect of such a massive dose of emergency financial drugs begins to wear off, we face the real risk of seeing property prices start to fall back again as healthy economic recovery is proving elusive. . . . "Property is not a long-term hold, it is a trading asset," says Chris Northam, of Jones Lang LaSalle. "If you get it right, you can make a fortune." And over the years many people have made many fortunes and, if they were smart, managed to avoid the worst falls which have happened in the 1970s, the early 1990s, and since 2007. Patrick Vaughan and Raymond Mould, business partners who met in the 1960s, have earned a reputation as kings of calling the property cycle. With London & Stamford they are now on their third venture. They sold Arlington and retail-park developer Pillar just before previous market crashes. The pair went into the 1970s downturn with cash, a period Vaughan describes as a "very messy market". He adds: "A lot of money [in the property market] came from fringe banks that were allowed to crash." In contrast, the collapse in values in the early 1990s was linked to overdevelopment, as a string of new projects reached the market, such as Broadgate in the City of London. With this influx of new space, rental values and capital values crashed as the economy slowed down. The fall between 2007 and 2009, which saw values drop 44pc, was a double-whammy caused by a lack of capital due to the banking crisis, and rental income falling as the recession damaged business demand for new space. Lessons learned from the previous two falls suggest that values now face a period of stalling growth as banks look to reduce their exposure to the sector amid economy fragility and uncertain consumer spending. For those willing to play a waiting game, however, there could still be exciting opportunities. /more: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/7932270...-in-cycles.html

IN CASE you always wanted to know "WHY?", but were afraid to ask... (I was asked this question by PM/email by poster from GEI, who I am quoting anonymously): Why? I lived in London for almost 20 years, and owned property there. Who knows, I may want to return some day. I do think it is a historical Bubble, and I can learn some useful lessons from a close study of it.

UK house prices rose 0.6% in July, Halifax says / 4 August Prices have changed very little during most of this year so far UK house prices have continued to stabilise, according to the latest report from the Halifax. Prices rose 0.6% in July, the Halifax said, reversing a fall seen in June, but values have changed little since the start of the year. The annual house price inflation rate fell from 6.3% to 4.9%, with the average property now costing £167,425 (SA). == == Note that: the Nationwide averages typically TURN BEFORE Halifax, and we have seen that yet again.

The new GEI RADIO THEME SONG ? One of these may be used probably: From: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vAEIFvpgrGE From: ...unless I get a better suggestion

Well done, MM. It's good to see you getting some recognition. Have you met any of the others in that book?

Sounds like "wishful thinking", which in my way of thinking, could lead to disaster

Parabolic Gold ? We've seen it already - Gold priced in Euros Parabolas usually get retraced, and the would mean back to Eur.800 or so. We've already seen a fall from Eur 1,051 to Eur 889 - that's -15.4% A full fall to Eur 800 would be: - 23.9% Over two years, the Gold price DOUBLED from Eur 528 to Eur 1051

Is "creativity" good for cities?: http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/features/...05.florida.html I suppose London scores rather well on this measure.

This also fits that old 2009 psychology /source: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...howtopic=123808 A Bump up since then: /source-search: http://www.google.co.uk/trends?q=estate+agent

Exactly. Have you seen Japan - it is undervalued by -37%! And that's why I have put together a group of 10-11 high powered people (here in HK), who will be discussing the idea of investing in Japanese property. / see: Japan Lessons

LET'S SEE how this forecast does... HOUSE PRICE CRASH IS OVER, SAY ECONOMISTS House prices will rise this year, according to the Centre for Economics and Business Research Prices are unlikely to reach 2007 levels before 2013 Benjamin Williamson, Centre for Economics and Business Research 1st August 2010 By Daily Star On Sunday Reporter The doom merchants who predicted a double dip in UK house prices “got it wrong”. Experts at the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) today claimed prices will increase around 4% this year. They added that they will go up a further 5% in 2012, followed by 5.4% in 2013 and increase another 3.9% in 2014 because of a shortage of supply. The predictions are at odds with a recent forecast from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research which said the market would fall 8% in real terms over the next five years. Recent industry figures also raised fears the market bounce-back was over. The Nationwide’s index showed a 0.5% drop in prices in July, the first decline recorded by the building society since February. The number of people looking to buy has also fallen recently because of the uncertainty over jobs and the Government’s emergency Budget. But the CEBR said: “Those forecasters projecting a double dip got it wrong.” CEBR economist Benjamin Williamson said: “This doesn’t mean we will see dizzying house prices any time soon. “Our forecasts show prices are unlikely to reach 2007 levels before 2013.” /see: http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/view/14711...say-economists/

Some of those "too early" U investments are back in profit. I added to some at lower prices, and that helps

Housing market 'faces abyss' over new rules on mortgages 18 July 2010 .. By Teresa Hunter HOMEBUYERS are heading for a house price abyss if watchdogs press ahead with new mortgage rules which could leave up to one in five, or nearly two million borrowers, unable to remortgage or move house. The Financial Services Authority wants early next year to restrict advances sharply, scrap self-certified mortgages, impede interest-only loans and block fast-tracked arrangements. If it presses ahead with its plans, nearly 20 per cent of existing borrowers may be unable to remortgage without reducing their debt significantly, funds available to borrowers overall could be reduced a further 10 per cent, and the self-employed may be prevented from taking that first step on the property ladder. Rather than safeguarding borrowers, these proposals could lead to rocketing repossessions, experts warn. Peter Williams, chairman of the Intermediary Mortgage Lenders Association, said: "This really is a step into the abyss. By 2012 the UK mortgage market could be unrecognisable. It will be a conservative market serving only the relatively well-off." /more: http://business.scotsman.com/business/Hous...over.6425794.jp

What's his timeframe? If he doesn't have one, it can never be disproved

Indeed that is it. Politics played a huge part in the UK bubble. Brown promised, "An End to Boom and Bust," and believed he deserved to be PM if he delivered that. Along the way, he used a Housing Bubble, and massive public sector job creation to delay and delay a recession. Instead of a Bust, he delivered an economy with massive debts, and ready to slide into a Bigger Bust. This was a crime against the future, for which he deserves to be villified as a ambitious monster.

The house price rally has run out of steam - what's next? By MoneyWeek Editor John Stepek Jul 29, 2010 The house price rally has most definitely run out of steam. Nationwide building society reported this morning that prices fell by 0.5% during July. Annual price inflation fell from 8.7% in June to 6.6%. Apparently the average house in Britain will now set you back a mere £169,347. The Land Registry disagrees slightly. It reckons prices were sitting at around £166,072 in June. But let's not quibble over a few grand. This is roughly where prices were sitting in mid-2006. And there's been a barrage of data pointing to further falls in the coming months. So are we heading for a second crash? The house price rally is over House prices seem to have hit a turning point. Take a look at the chart below, which my colleague David Stevenson has just put together on Bloomberg. It shows Nationwide's monthly change in house prices (white line) and the 12-month moving average (red line). This helps to cut out some of the monthly noise - it's a pretty volatile index in the short term. You can see that the average has rolled over quite clearly for the first time since the 2007/08 crash. Now it's not as though the moving average has never rolled over in the past without leading to a calamitous downturn. But it does show that the big rally off the 2009 bottom has lost all momentum. /more: http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-charts/e...next-49705.aspx == == Note: Builder Shares provided Early Warnings Here's Taylor Wimpey Plc (Other OTC) / TWODF ... update

The govt WANTS the pain now... Second home owners to lose tax breaks Myra Butterworth, 15:16, Thursday 29 July 2010 Tens of thousands of second home owners stand to lose generous tax breaks on furnished holiday lets. The tax advantages on furnished holiday lets were reinstated by the Coalition after the previous Government abolished them in April. George Osborne reversed the measure in the June Budget saying he wanted to help small businesses operating in the tourism industry. However, the Treasury has now said it intends to make it much tougher for home owners to qualify for the breaks. The move comes as the Government prioritizes reducing the countrys deficit. Under the proposals, home owners will need to secure more bookings and will no longer be able to offset their mortgages costs against their personal income. This tax break is one of the main financial reasons for investing in a furnished holiday let as it helps to reduce an individuals overall tax liabilities. The new proposals aims to bring the rules in line with EU law and make them focused on commercial businesses rather than those run for personal use. It means more than a quarter of the 65,000 home owners offering holiday lets in Britain will no longer be eligible for the tax benefits from 2011-2012, according to a consultation document published by the Treasury.

A Doubting Thomas in our midst? Hmm. These ticks are MEANINGFUL to me, because of the context within which they are happening. We are on the road to a Double Dip (or worse) all across the Western World. What can the UK possibly do, that it has not done already, to prop up Housing? The old tricks are failing, and the new government is ready to take some pain. The market turned down in late 2007, as predicted, and the QE program saved it (temporarily.) Then it turned up in April 2009, as predicted, and made a nice classic mult-month rally. So far, this is the expected pattern, albeit the bounce was a healthy one. The next part of the pattern is a slide, probably a severe one. The fundamental, technical, political and cyclical forces are all aligned. What do you imagine could possibly stop them? Ask yourself, does that LOCAL AREA lead or lag the market in a downturn? Are the people in your area especially good at holding onto their confidence? I reckon them may be somewhat sheltered, and have little idea what is happening across GB. And also, they have learned time and time again to "buy the dips." It will take much pain, to unlearn that dangerous behaviour.

Want to do a price check (historical data)? It is here and Up-to-date: http://tinyurl.com/UKTrap ... here's what it looks like / I plan to keep it up-to-date ... Mon.: Rt'move: Na'wide Hali.SA Hali.nsa: H&Nindex : mom :DelusIdx When?: 18th? - 28th ? : Next mo.on 8th? 2009 J. : : 213,570 : 150,501 159,818 163,966 : £155,159 : = n / a : 137.6% F : : 216,163 : 147,746 160,327 159,208 : £153,477 :- 1.08% :140.8% : LOW M : : 218,081 : 150,946 157,326 157,066 : £154,066 :+0.38% :141.6% A : : 222,077 : 151,861 154,716 157,156 : £154,508 :+0.29% :143.7% M : : 227,441 : 154,016 158,565 160,869 : £157,442 :+1.90% :144.5% J. : : 226,436 : 156,442 157,713 158,807 : £157,624 :+0.12% :143.7% Jl : : 227,864 : 158,871 159,623 160,686 : £159,778 :+1.37% :142.6% A : : 222,762 : 160,224 160,973 161,930 : £161,077 :+0.81% :138.3% S : : 223,996 : 161,816 163,533 164,854 : £163,335 :+1.40% :137.1% O : : 230,184 : 162,038 165,528 165,430 : £163,734 :+2.44% :140.6% : RM HIGH N : : 226,440 : 162,764 167,664 165,617 : £164,191 :+0.28% :137.9% D : : 221,463 : 162,103 169,042 167,260 : £164,681 :+0.30% :134.5% 2010 J. : : 222,261 : 163,481 169,777 165,514 : £164,497 :- 0.11% :135.1% : HFsa HIGH F : : 229,398 : 161,320 166,857 165,997 : £163,659 :- 0.51% :140.2% M : : 229,614 : 164,519 168,521 167,808 : £166,164 :+1.53% :138.2% A : : 235,512 : 167,802 168,202 170,772 : £169,287 :+1.88% :139.1% : H&N HIGH M : : 237,134 : 169,162 167,570 169,204 : £169,183 :- 0.06% :140.2% J. : : 237,767 : 170,111 166,203 166,395 : £168,253 :- 0.55% :140.5% Jl : : 236,332 : 169,347 16X,- - - 16X, - - - : £16X,- - - : mom: - 0.60%: - 0.45% :

THE BULL TRAP is closing as... House price inflation eases again, says Nationwide Buyers are still restricted by mortgage rationing House price inflation in the UK continued to ease off in July, the Nationwide building society has said. BBC gives it the usual bullish spin: The Nationwide said price rises were easing off as more homes were being put up for sale. "At the moment, the market is clearly easing relative to the very tight supply conditions that characterised it since early 2009," said the society's chief economist Martin Gahbauer. "A combination of restrictive credit conditions and uncertainty about the future economic outlook continues to limit the pool of buyers to those with relatively large financial resources," he added. Falling prices? Buyers typically still have to put down a deposit of at least 25% to secure a mortgage as banks and building societies continue to ration their mortgage lending in the wake of the credit crunch and banking crisis of 2007 and 2008. The Nationwide pointed out that the number of completed home sales was still running at about half the level recorded before the credit crunch started. Since the spring of 2009 prices had been pushed higher again, mainly by a shortage of homes coming onto the market for sale. Earlier this month, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics) said it expected prices to start falling in the second half of this year, as sellers started to outnumber buyers. However, the Nationwide said it was less certain about the prospect for prices. "It will take several more months to establish whether house prices are now simply oscillating around a flat price trend or whether a period of downward trending prices may be in store," Mr Gahbauer said. /see: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-10794461

I repeat my oft-repeated forecast: Gold will be below $1100 in August. Wait until then to buy=

I have suspended this poster for 10 days. Another irrelevamt posting will trigger a banning