drbubb

WEAKEST on the block (over the last 10 days)? It's Juniors (CDNX) again

Alternative? Fill your boots with smelly socks, and worn out feet Welcome, Kingfisher

...says J.Sinclair before Gold hopped thru $1,000 per ounce... Dear Extended Family, Never in economic history has there been a night like tonight. I am writing later than usual because of the enormity of all the converging forces. The euro reaches for $1.60, the Middle East oil producers are in shock, and the IMF tells the world to “plan for the worst.” The reason this missive is late is because I am reverberating at the speed of the disintegration. These cursed OTC derivatives and their makers, who incidentally made the international banking community rich beyond your wildest dreams, are now unwinding at lightening speed. Do you think any entity with any OTC derivative now has faith in the paper? This paper is $550 trillion plus dollars in notional value. The horrible fact is that in bankruptcy notional value becomes real value with the capacity to destroy the world financial system. The above is no wild assumption. It is hard, cold fact. Expect currency intervention to slow down the rise of the euro. Intervention has never worked. It will not now. In fact, it will backfire so fast that the effort will be abandoned, making things even worse. Intervention in currency, the dollar, will only provide the capacity for other central banks, oil producers and holders of high risk long US treasury paper to diversify out in huge amounts of decaying dollars at singular prices. I could go through a tome on how intervention works, but accept that any rise in short rates will break the bank immediately. Intervention in the euro/dollar is another practical impossibility except as a bluff. There is no practical solution to today’s TERMINAL problems and that means you are up to your eyeballs in alligators. You must protect yourselves. Gold is going to $1650. In all probability my major error will be in forecasting a price that is much too low for gold. The ratio spread long the major gold producers, short the juniors, is going to kill the math whizzes that think they are in the captain’s seat. The reason is the only value still in precious metals shares lies in the best junior issues these geeks have been hammering. The prayer that a junior with quality assets has is that the illegal short position is enormous. This is it!

Why not look at some Juniors?

me too

Yes. It needs a small "kiss it goodbye" move here

whoops. I am talking about resistance for Royal Gold (RGLD). I want to see a break above $32. It has worked like a bellwether for the Juniors, for soem odd reason

$32 is key resistance. If it can get above that, it will start to motor

$1003- 'ere we go !

Skint... Because they have too much mortgage debt?

The "see what the volume looks like" link is back here- to this thread. The HPC mods keep DELETING that line. It seems that they are watch their GOLD thread very carefully. This is strange behaviour after being so hard on the Gold posters there

If we get a pullback in Gold, I expect gold shares to hold up "surprisingly well". We saw that in an oil price pullback about two years ago

Let's WATCH GLD (the Gold etf)... And see what the volume looks like if/when it gets through that key level (I will also post this on HPC, GHPC, and Advfn)

It would be great to see the Gold price banging on the ceiling near $1,000 for a few days before the breakthrough. That would chew up the sellers, and emphasize the importance of this milestone

Right: "This is the hallmark of a mania-driven bubble." No Bubble without the Mania. Whoever wrote that doesnt know what a real bubble looks like

In answer to the question : Is it still a good idea to invest in gold NOW? == Certainly there are many cheap Junior gold stocks you can buy now = = Parabolic moves usually kill off Bull markets - so do be careful with Silver

Haha. Another Wall Street apologist? "subprime writedown - end in sight!" What's Next: + Prime mortgages + Credit Insurance writedowns + Credit derivatives writedown + Credit cards, auto, corporate loan problems + Municipal meltdown (as tax revs fall) Why would anyone listen to: ? - Standard & Poors - Greenspan - Washington Insiders - Other Wall Street apologists ... who may tell you "an end is in sight"? They have missed every obvious risk

Yes. Something like that. Good and look at alot of charts. You will see that each area of trading almost always gets retraced at least once. If you look at the Gold charts, the trading above $930 needs retracing. Once that retarcement starts, it could easily pullback to support at $850, the old high.

I am very glad we are making money on RGLD, but I will be honest: RGLD has been a disappointment in gthe way that it has failed to keep pace with the Gold price. When I bought it many months ago, I expected it would be trading at $45-$50 when Gold hit $1,000. So it has been a big underperformer. I am hoping there is room for some catch-up soon.

Gold shines as it tops $1,000 http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/sto...ory/energy/home

GEI is winning The GOLD thread Race ... (Advfn): "Update on Traffic, as we head to Gold $1,000 per ounce" 822,058 Hits / compare Previous traffic checks: UPDATES... 734,607 hits on 23.jan.2008 (734,607 - 111,111 = 623.496 hits) 23 Jan'08 - 14:14 - 33270 :: 365+365+13= 743 days : 839 hits per day 10 Jan'06 #12474 : 111,111 23 Jan'08 #33270 : 734,607 +623,496 / 743d. : 839 hits/day 13 Mar'08 #36178 : 822,058 +710,947 / 793d: : 896 hits/day from 23 Jan.2008 : 822,058 +87,451 / 50days: 1,749 hits/day Posts : + # 3908 / 50 days: 78.16 posts /day = = = ( GEI ): Started on March 3rd 13 Mar'08 # 1,341 : 26,405 + 26,405 / 10d: : 2,641 hits/day Posts : + # 1,341 / 10 days: 134.1 posts /day ++ About 50%-70% more traffic than Advfn !!

LOL Stick your tongue forward !

Pretty similar to my own forecast. Imagine how that fall will feel, if it comes?

Yeah. Haha. But I'm nearly always here- party or not

That is true, but I dont think that Oil built cause below $100, the way that Gold has below $100