John Doe

My good man, just like other rich people (and MP's etc) they will not be frequenting those parts Besides, now the rioters know they can't get away with it, I'd be suprised if there were any significant disturbances for a while yet.

SWMBO hehe, haven't heard that for a few years (Authur Daily I think?) I went for option A, with a long term fix. Can't see it myself. inflation falling and yet more (CEBR) coming out saying rates low until 2016 at least, today. http://www.myfinances.co.uk/mortgages/2012/01/15/cebr-says-interest-rates-will-remain-at-0-5-until-2016 Lots of rich people around the world and many joining them each day (BRICs etc), all seem to like having a London pad. As for the rest of the UK, well that's a different matter

Or maybe it will be London proping up the UK again http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2087291/Osborne-wins-City-billions-China-slams-eurozone-doing-enough.html?ITO=1490 Billions and billions coming to London, China's new "place to be" Easy money

Oh and Dr. B, your recent favourite Rightmove has a report out today too http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/files/2012/01/january-2012.pdf I'm going out on a limb here, but I'm guessing you won't be posting this one on several different threads, as you did with one of their previous ones are you? (Told you rightmove can't be trusted )

The Fools Cliff D'Arcy's back (and bearish as ever). One day he'll be right http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/why-uk-house-prices-will-fall.html

So how's the old barometer BDEV looking? Oh, up 10% to 107 at one point! Hmm, what can it mean? http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=BDEV.L Just kidding, perhaps it tallies with 50's short sharp bounce this spring.

No need to worry, people are now paying to lend money to the UK too! http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/investors-pay-lend-money-uk-064405146.html So now we can get mortgages where people pay us to have them!

I agree, but still think a major shock will be needed here for a quick crash. Australia (I think that link refers to) AFAIR has one of the most overpriced housing markets in the world. UK in real terms has seen a good ~33% fall from peak already (and a lot more in most places, which is offset by London and nice properties in nice areas) One of the spreadbet companies in the UK used to let you short the housing market. Can't remember which one. Also RBS was going to offer some deriv type shorting opps at one point.

Nah, there have always been several 100's of 1000's using credit cards and payday loans etc for paying the mortgage (even back in the "good?" old days), and the second report is commercial property. No bombs, just a slow slow grind down, as normal, unless a major shock.

Talking of UK car production, Rolls Royce expanding UK operation too now! http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16440548 Come on blighty! That's the spirit!

Perhaps when that ECB press starts printing (officially)

Others think it will be a good year for the pound. http://www.thestreet.com/story/11360712/1/euro-lags-behind-ahead-of-2012-sterling-may-play-safe-haven-role.html Yep, the "pound could rebound" in 2012 http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/pound-could-rebound-2012-090000771.html

More W.End / London safe haven talk. Now it seems commercial property too! Will wonders ever cease? http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/west-end-city-become-safe-191612007.html

Yeah, and with their overpayments they're practically mortgage free. Go figure. If they had researched the economic situation of the world back then (especially the state of the UK and it’s housing market etc, the would have seen that there were huge imbalances, two massively expensive wars being waged by overindebted countries, ultra low rates and recession in US and EU etc etc and, having acted accordingly, they would not have bought at that time. If then the PTB had then not continued to prop up the system (several times in the past decade alone) then they would have been in big trouble. Now they are sat practically mortgage free while rents are rising and incomes are falling for many of those that acted more prudently. So actually, yes, they were very lucky. It is what it is. Woah blood! I never said they did. (and I certainly wasn't referring to anyone here) All I meant was people can spend too much time worrying about things that might never happen (I know several myself). Be concerned yes, have contingencies yes, but don't let it spoil your life.

Ignorance is bliss marceau Besides, they are happy, they "stupidly" borrowed loads back in 2003 to buy (what I told them was) overpriced houses that were about to crash in value. Then they "stupidly" went on to trackers when I told them rates were going to rise in 2006/7. Yep, two actually get paid by the building society as we speak for those "stupid" deals. Boy, what idiots. (Yes of course they were lucky, but there you go) We'll see. As I've said before, for decades I've read & heard about all the impending end of the system prophecies etc, and yes, I have understood all the arguments and reasons why people kept saying it and predicting it. I've even made major decisions based upon it, sometimes helpful, sometimes not. Yet, here we are decades later, still bumbling along. Heard it in the 50's, 60's (from those older than me), heard it myself in the 70's, the 80's the 90's the naughties, and now in the teens. There have always been problems, and probably always will be, but heh ho, here we are. And granted, they seem pretty big at present, but not unsolvable given the right choices and leadership (if/when it comes). Besides, wasn't everyone here telling me 2011 would be the end game? Massive house price falls, 3.5m unemployed (even on the fiddled figures). Didn’t happen. Indeed, if the EU hadn’t pi**ed about so much, the great slow recovery would still be continuing (just like it is in the US, even with all the potential problems). The world has an uncanny knack for managing to walk that tightrope. It's been doing it for a long time now. And yes, one day a fall will probably come, and what will happen then? Yep, worldwide co-ordinated printing and debt jubilees, enabling a parachute for those in the know to land safely, and for the rest of us perhaps a bit of a bump. System reboot, here we go again. Until then, the best we can do is enjoy the view and prepare the best we can in case the worst happens, withought stoping living, yes?

Possibly. It could all blow up. I was just pointing out that the people I spoke with seem to have understood that this level of growth and credit availability is the new norm, and are actually managing their expectations accordingly. This time last year, they all thought it was the end of the world. I just don't see the end of the world. As soon as the ECB prints, the crisis stage will be over, and the slow grind of deleverage can resume its course along with muted growth for several years, which is what was generally happening from 2009 (until the EU politicians screwed up with their indecision and power playing).

Tata is huge, like Sumitomo or Hyundai (and hell they make/sell everything from soap to tv’s to oil tankers). One part of it is investing heavily in the UK. A totally different part has signed up this NEST deal. AFAIR, Tata were the only company that didn’t pull out of the bidding for that particular contract after the Gov didn’t stump up enough to entice the UK firms (amongst others) to continue bidding. Seems to have saved the country a good few quid by all accounts. The gang of 4 deal (labour) for rover was only trumped by the Chinese taking the company for peanuts (again, resulting from a labour deal, but this time to save the midlands vote just before an election, backed up with huge tax payer cash injection) The Chinese quickly shut it down taking the lucrative engine tech etc with them to china. Of course, there is a lovely shopping centre on the site now. Tata has not done this, indeed, amongst other investments,it has just announced a new engine plant. The two are opposite, which was my point. Hamish! V.Funny

Oh, and by the way, the Tata deal for land rover jaguar was done under the Labour gov, not camerons Conlib

Mais bien sur Or did you think the world worked nicely and friendly and fair? Point is, all countries were offering the same sort of deals because they know that the deals are peanuts compared to the benefit to the country/community. £10's of millions, for creating thousands of jobs! (Direct and indirect) Cheap at half the price. Like it or not, that's the way of the world now. They call it competition As for Tata, with orders growing at 30% YoY, I don't think there is any problem with them opening plant in India, it's common sense. They could have moved the whole operation abroad straight away if they wanted (like the Chinese), but they didn't did they. No, that's right, they have announced 3 significant investments here in the UK over the last 2 years and that is safeguarding my mates jobs in Solihull and the W.Mids. Jobs that would not be here if Tata hadn’t took over a few years back (albeit with the deals offered at that time). So, as long as they are still creating thousands of jobs here, good luck to them. Or would you rather that it all went down the pan?

Happy new year bears! Been in the log cabin for a while, deep in the woods, no internet, no phone. See we are all in lovely bear mode this year (so far). Did anyone hear US employment has been growing again? Several months now, that’s a thing eh. So, house prices about 1 or 2% down for 2011. Hardly significant is it? Lost in the noise. Didn't we hear everyone crying Crash Cruise Speed.... 20% falls coming..... etc etc this time last year? If anything, the world (apart from a couple of crappy little economies in Europe) is in better shape today than it was this time last year. Indeed, if it wasn't the lousy, useless politicians in the Eurozone, you could have been seeing growth in GDP and jobs practically everywhere now. Been chatting with many old friends/colleagues from all over the UK (both rich and poor) over the break. Guess what, they aren’t as near as gloomy as they were last year. Tata, Nissan and many others now investing big time again in good old blighty. BTL taking up the slack again and pressure growing on the Condems to help the poor little FTB. Surge in Buy to let The predictions of doom, gloom and Crash Cruise Speed might just prove to be a little premature again methinks

Yep, they got outbid by all the rich greeks and italians moving their funds to "the safe haven"

The truth is out there! John Glenn US Senator, Astronaut, telling it like it is (was, up there in space)! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bj8sBOxx22E 18 mins, 30 seconds in! Enjoy

Well, not really as it's asking prices. They also go up rapidly sometimes, but we don't say that's a boom when they do.

Oddly enough, with the new lending restrictions (possibly) coming into force in 2013, 2012 may be a last chance to grab a "boom time" mortgage

Rightmove out. -2.7MoM but +1.5YoY However, as we have all been saying..... http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/files/2011/12/december-2011.pdf