John Doe

David Miles, the one BoE member that correctly forecast 20% house price falls (over 2 years) back in 2008 has now said..... http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/9153363/House-prices-to-rise-for-years-says-BoEs-David-Miles.html Now, what is his reasoning? That's right, restricted supply and rising population!

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/house-prices-record-biggest-spring-075111202.html;_ylt=ArHkROgJz20eBFRkT8y0uqTSr7FG;_ylu=X3oDMTNzbjFhOWZrBG1pdANGUCBUb3AgU3RvcnkgUmlnaHQEcGtnAzA0ZTRkOGM1LTAxMDAtM2JlOS05ZWYwLTQzYjM2M2ExMjFmYQRwb3MDNQRzZWMDdG9wX3N0b3J5BHZlcgM0MWE2YTIwMC03MTk5LTExZTEtYmNlMy1kYmQxMzQ4MTUzMDA-;_ylg=X3oDMTFvZzY4MG5jBGludGwDZ2IEbGFuZwNlbi1nYgRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25zBHRlc3QD;_ylv=3 Actually, that's the Telegraph mistaking asking prices for sale prices again. It's the Rightmove data, (which I say again is bo**ocks) that some used to suggest crash cruise speed not so long ago Hehe (Of course, while RM figures are meaningless, the big change around does chime with my views about sentiment. Dire last autumn to xmas, vast improvement (though still not great) since xmas)

Early 2003, after I watched an interview with a prof from Warwick (can't remember his name now) on BBC. But we had just sold a house for ~ 60% more than we'd paid for it 18 months before and I though then, something just ain't right here. Since then we've STR'd twice

Yep, I know a couple of builders that are doing very well at the moment, because (so they tell me) they didn't need big loans back in 2009 and bought up plots no-one was lending on. One even came out of early retirement (he was on country house rescue once) as the deals were so good! (on the plots and the labour costs, which he reckoned had halved, so he didn’t give a s**t about selling 20% less than peak if he had to). Others I know have had a miserable couple of years, but, then again, they didn't have the cashflow. I guess one man’s recession really is another’s opportunity

Agree on 1992 and esp 2001, but if they'd let this one run on it's own (due in a good part to the previous ones being smoothed over), I think it could have been the most catastrophic and self spiralling depression of all time. Indeed, it could have made the 30’s look pale in comparison, going far deeper than necessary to remove imbalances, with a massive overshoot on the downside. I really think it could have been that bad.

Very interesting analysis from BoE's Broadbent. Flanders does a bit on it too. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17398014 And what's this? Has Marceau had a change of heart? (and name?) http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=176479&view=findpost&p=3287693 :lol:

Good to see you (and NB) again, it's been too long

Big moves in US yields. As I said, sentiment is improving (albeit from utter, absolute doom) and although it's going to be a long slog, the worst of this part of the crisis, might just be over..... for now. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/treasurys-fall-more-yields-hit-4-month-highs-2012-03-14?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts Of course, if it really is, then that means (over time) yields will continue to rise = rates rising = next phase of the crisis can begin!

Ah right, oops BDEV still rising 149 today http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=BDEV.L

Oh I don't know. The atmosphere (general feelings of friends/family and colleagues etc) from Autumn to xmas was miserable in the extreme. Even all those that call me Dr Doom were looking glum and saying the end was nigh. Confidence hit new lows. However, since xmas, there has been a vast improvement in sentiment (obviously still not great, but nowhere near as bad as before xmas). Looking around where I work, we have lost 20 people out of ~100 in our Dept. (All voluntary thankfully) and that's the cuts done for us (actually got a bigger saving than originally planned, so jobs are safe(ish) again, and that has helped sentiment a bit also). Confidence is key, and if the public can be fooled into thinking everything is going to be fine, then confidence returns and it becomes self fulfilling. And yes, before the insults fly, I do know the system is ultimately fu**ed, but I dont think its going to collapse just yet. PS Just saw the Telegraphs take on it Amazing http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/house-prices-fall-slowest-rate-062608229.html

Indeed, considering all the other places in the world to be born, it aint so bad .

One must know one's place..... for true harmony

Yep. Although, IIRC, areas with loads on benefits tend to have one of the lowest turnouts when it comes to voting. It's not like they don't have the time So I blame those politicians again.

Agree on the general gist, but not sure it was the fault of the masses. Yep, any system where it is easier (or actually financially more beneficial) not to work, than to work, is obviously stupid, but that was not put in place by the bottom, but rather the politicians at the top (although some clearly exploit it). The over borrowed middle, I would say, relates more to my point about the lenders not doing due diligence on those they lend to, while still collecting their fat bonus cheques for signing up these borrowers, who, in a proper system, would never have been lent the money in the first place**, so once again, I blame the top (this time the lenders). **as it was supposed to be under the system we used to have, where the lender (and share holders/bond holders) would have been liable for any losses incurred (rather than the taxpayer, as it turned out). There must be some risk with any investment, otherwise there is nothing to stop the craziness. 100% correct.

Unless it really is just another commodity then again, as the great Julian Beck said......

Couldn't agree more, it IS crime and my old sig "you can't beat the system" was actually meant to reflect this (and the lengths that TPTB will go to in order to keep their lavish lifestyles). Some took it the wrong way*, so I changed it. Rant time. I've said here many times that I think we've been witness to the biggest financial rip off in human history, and we are utterly powerless to do anything about it. Moral hazard has been eliminated for those at the top, and those beneath are left with the all the risk, and all the cost. So what do you do? I really don't know. But I know what I would like to see start to happen. The public (and small firms) are now under huge scrutiny when they want to borrow money, so I'd like to see that applied to everyone. I would like to see CDS's and equivalents banned, now. Investment (or lending) HAS to carry some risk, and when that risk is taken away, people invest in stupid things (and lend to stupid people/countries) without doing due diligence. I would like to see those that fiddled the system (making huge profits while all along knowing full well the eventual outcome) arrested and thrown in jail, with their huge fortunes confiscated. I would like to see some of the banks go bust (no company should ever be allowed to become to big to fail, ever), with the bondholders and shareholders only getting any leftovers after the savers got their money back. However, if any of these things ever come to pass, it has to be done in an orderly manner, or like it or not, we will all end up suffering/paying for it. Rant over. * Understandably in hindsight, as it didn't come with an explanation and even though in real life I am considered a bear (even known as Dr Doom), here, because I don't see the end of the world (at least not just yet) I am classed as a bull

Acadametrics data out. 0.2% MoM -1.8% YoY London skewing big time, North down >6% YoY. Nice reporting though http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-09/u-k-house-prices-rise-most-in-four-months-acadametrics-says.html Do people really rush out to buy a house to save 1% before the stamp duty deadline? (Which may well be extended in the budget anyway) Or do they just wait for the deadline to pass, when the sellers will probably have to drop their price by the same as the stamp duty, and then negotiate another few % off instead?

Never really commented on gold before, but looks like it might just fall from those charts DONT SHOOT.... DONT SHOOT! I could be wrong!!!

On the contrary, I'd actually be very interested in what you have to say about what is coming, as it sounds imminent and, as such, could be a great chance to investigate some of these “prior seen” events. If what you “know” (your words) is about to happen, actually comes to pass, that would be interesting in the extreme, and I for one would be honoured to say that I had heard it here first, before it happened. I would then happily stand up in front of anyone that would listen and say "heh, there really might be something in this after all". As I've said before, I've been looking for some proof of these things (and other fringe stuff) all my life. So far, I've found none, but to find some now, even indirect, would be fantastic.

Yes, indeed you may (wish I'd thought of that a few posts ago, would have saved some key tapping ), but in as much that I think the world will muddle through this crisis, at least for a few years yet, during which time I will reassess my thinking as the facts emerge. I also see the potential for C&B (scares me TBH, as lots of innocents will get hurt, or worse) and no doubt one day it will come, but as you say, it is very rare (thankfully), and I don't think the world is at that point, yet.

Thanks, I agree and I enjoy the debates too. Especially when more than one side is allowed. As for the claim I'm paid (I wish), that came from callmetroll, so I would give it about as much credence as any of his other posts I've been called Hamish a few times too over the years, even I found him ridiculously bullish. Thing is, as long time users of this site (and HPC before 2005) would know, I'm a fan of the Austrian school etc, it's just I don't think that the system we have at present can simply revert to that overnight, unless we have a full on collapse. As much as I want to get to a more sustainable system, the effects of a full on collapse would devastate countless lives, most of which would be borne by those that just keep their heads down trying to carve out an existence for their families. It's obviously not perfect as it is, far from it (Vans post nicely points out some of the main reasons why), but a slow grind towards a gradual rebalancing is the only option I believe is possible without causing untold serious harm/pain to many many people rather than a relatively small drop in the standard of living for most. If that means some have to call me a "a panglossian fool of the most dangerous type" then fine, no matter how wrong the description is (as anyone who actually reads my posts properly, and understands what it actually means, would realise). What some posters here appear to want (to sort the system out at any cost, i.e a full on global financial collaspe) without actually considering the potentially horrific consequences of such events to the average man on the street, makes them far more dangerous than I could ever be.

And you offer what exactly? End of the world, doom gloom. Yes there are problems, but there always has been, and always will be. This might be a surprise but you do NOT know what is going to happen. Like everyone else, you just think you do. I have taken the time to learn what I need to make financial decisions throughout my life, and without being brash, I've done pretty well (check the date I started posting here, long before this crises was seen by many others). I planned accordingly. I offer the opinion that I think the worst might be over for now. It's going to be a hard slog no doubt, so, hardly a rose tinted view of the future. Each time is different, my point is that the system has and probably will, muddle through. Why does this offend you so much that you have to resort to personal insults? Very strange So it seems that one is not allowed to "respectfully" (unlike some) disagree anymore without being insulted and accused of being a "paid disinformation artist"? Wonder if that's why so many good posters are leaving?

Is it related to the old theory about the gulf stream?

Yes, that's a deficit, and the plans the conlibs have to reduce it, is what is keeping the markets sweet. If they reduce the deficit as planned (and stop wasting s**t loads as has been happening over the last 20 years), the debt only then increases at the IR charged (debt has been increasing for the last 60 years). Productivity is what brings real growth. And yes, a lot of the growth in the last decade (prior to 2007) was illusionary, and built on debt, but not all of it. A lot of that debt was built to support the bloated public sector, however, through a combination of inflation with no pay rises, redundancies and cost cutting, that bill is being reduced at quite a good rate. The debt isn't really a problem (always been there, probably always will be), the deficit is. The economy has shrunk a lot since then, but heh, we are only back to where we were in about 2005, and as I remember, things weren't so bad back then. Some people are getting a bit poorer yes, others are getting a bit better off (see all those on the lifetime trackers for example). So we are not running out getting a new plasma screen each year, cutting back on that 2nd holiday, not buying that new car each year with the MEW. Good. That was stupid excess and saw a lot of the money going out of the country anyway. It seems it is perhaps you that fails to understand that it has always been this way. This is not a new phenomena. The system has always been unsustainable, yet here we are. One day, of course, it will end, but with each crisis comes new ways around it. Seen it all before. Been shouting at the politicians etc all before. All these arguments have been doing the rounds for the last 40-50 years. Do you not remember the ideological (capitalist/socialist) wars of the 70’s and early 80’s etc that were fought over precisely this question? Like it or not (and there seem to be quite a few here that seem to actually want the STHTF for some strange reason) the crisis appears to have bottomed out and now the slow grind to recovery has begun. If you disagree, that's fine, and I respect your view, as it is true that the system is ultimately unsustainable. But I will say here now that I think they've actually pulled it off, once again, and the worst of this crisis appears to be over.