John Doe

Yep, another day and another round of government action interference

Indeed it is, but I'm guessing the NW sample size is really small. I also think the Land Reg, (although somewhat delayed) is still the only really reliable measure nowadays.

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/uk-house-prices-rose-most-064620015.html

Hometrack out.... http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/house-prices-mortgage-costs-falling-090413991.html

Had a quick look. Does he include the 40% deposit or the posssible change in interest rates?

But then, the bounce back.... http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-19316713 Closer inspection reveals a broadly flat market it seems.

Another builder raking it in http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/housebuilder-persimmon-sees-profits-soar-064822702.html

More builders doubling profits http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-19315635# Now councils might sell expensive properties in good areas, to build more cheaper ones in not-so-nice areas. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-19311364

The conundrum continues. UK unemployment down again. 8.2% to 8% http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-19259913

After the bankers

Yeah I think you're right. Also the gov seem intent on helping the housebuilders rather than the first time buyers (which they pretend they're trying to help).

Yes I see BDEV and many of the builders are up at 2 and a half year highs. What can we tell from this TN? Edit to say I think it's a bit strange too, as everything else points to a fall over the coming months.

Hi GK, Thanks for the info, and the SIPPs link. Bit busy myself too at the moment, but will give it the time it deserves later week. Thanks again. JD

Piece on which house price index is the best on Money Week http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/property/uk/which-house-price-index-is-the-best-60003 And the winner is.............. Land Reg! (As has always been recommended by some here ) Also, is that GEI's Van at comment #2?

Now Van will be on your case for not checking the MoM last year to see what actual falls will be needed for a decent YoY (Besides, I though 20% YoY was the generally accepted benchmark for a proper "crash" (0therwise I believe it's known as a slow motion train wreck )

Yep, going into winter that's what happens in these new austere times. Probably a few percent down by xmas. Hardly crash territory though, so could probably get away without a seatbelt

Nice work GK. Have you based your affordability index based on Net income, Gross, or even Disposable income - once essentials (not including housing) have been accounted for? Just that Dr B points out that household disposable income has been hit with tax rises and commodity price rises, which could have an effect. However, I would think that, while there is no doubt there would be some effect, this effect would likely be relatively small, as, although wages have been rising less than inflation during this time, such expenditures do not necessarily constitute such a large proportion of take home pay, especially when compared with mortgage/rent costs. PS On a separate note, and looking at your specialism, have you got a good link to general info on SIPPs?

Well I think we're all agreed that in "real" terms (which you just called a useless measure ) they aren't (and likely wont). Yes you can if you use my example. "** So if someone sold at peak in 2007, then put that money in an RPI +0.5% bond, then they wouldn’t be looking at a great discount today? Of course they would." Mostly yes, (although ultra low rates by themselves haven't helped in many other countries), but it's also been a bit to do with the S.East attracting lots of foreign money etc. For the rest of the UK, prices haven't risen and I think pretty much everyone is expecting prices to fall over the coming 6 months or so. However, the level of the falls could well be tempered by the latest mortgage offerings (The new funding for Lending initiative came into force today) and the possibility of the EU getting their head out of their arse (although this could result in money being shifted back into the southern EU, putting pressure on London prices). As for rates rising in the foreseeable future, good luck with that one (they'll possibly come down further first). Things are gonna have to get a lot lot better before they even think about bringing them to old fashion levels (i.e not a paltry 1 or 2% rise), and by then most of the correction should be done.

Here you go. http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/business-news/families-are-squeezed-by-rising-prices-and-static-wages-16192306.html Note they talk about REAL incomes too

Just edited the previous post as you were posting. Please see previous. The red line's been done to death with the general conclusion that it's a very poor measure and actually leads to an infinite rise if followed to it's logical conclusion. I think we can discard it As for disposable income going on housing, you’re forgetting rates are super low and falling. For those actually buying houses (40% of whom are actually cash purchasers nowadays), those that can get a mortgage are getting the lowest rates ever (and staill falling as we speak), meaning as a proportion of their take home pay, the percentage going on the mortgage is actually less (and getting lower) now than the vast majority of the time shown on the graph.

Er now who's being like bozo. ** So if someone sold at peak in 2007, then put that money in an RPI +0.5% bond, then they wouldn’t be looking at a great discount today? Of course they would. So hardly a "useless" measure. Now where's that house price vs gold graph gone Edit** so Dr B can understand

No the "REAL" REAL price, based on the REAL inflation rate, much more like 7-8%P.A. than the fiddled CPI. In those REAL terms they're probably down nearer 40-50% from peak.

Or as the Telegraph put it... http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/nationwide-house-prices-fall-fastest-071540877.html 13% below peak NOMINAL. REAL is a different story.

Yep, many parts of the UK you could get way more for your money too (even get an old castle up in the N.E. of Scotland). Yet I hear from friends in Hamburg that they'd get a decent 2 bed apartment for that. Then again, in real good parts of London you wouldn't even get a one bed studio. Indeed, there was a bit on R4 this morning stating something along the lines of.... as you drive from London to Manchester, the price of equivalent housing drops at ~ £3K per mile! http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b01l7r0j/Today_31_07_2012/ Guess it really is all about location location location Thanks borassic, but more likely just a lucky coincidence of clarity in an otherwise jumbled narrative. Good luck in whatever decision you end up making

TBF, you could probably get a better deal if you wait a few months or so, for the market to hit the dark winter doldrums, and the new financing (cheap mortgage) deals from the BoE's latest plan to kick in properly. However, considering this property seems to be limited by the stamp duty 250k mark (i.e any property worth up to 275K ish is being held back to this) you might well be getting a ~10% reduction for free on top of any current valuations (discounts). So, if it's the right place for you, and the right time for you, and you think it will make you happy, then why not just go for it borassic. There's a lot more to life than a few thousand (or even tens of thousand) ponds in the grand scheme of things over a lifetime.