John Doe

And mortgage approvals up too! http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18811234 Go figure I think things have definitely took a turn for the worst over the last few months (esp Eurozone activity, or lack of, etc), so would expect this to show up in the next few months figures. Then again, the article is a bit more balanced than usual for the BBC with a quote from Howard....

Nice turn of phrase. Here's how they are doing it... http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/housebuilders-bucking-housing-market-downturn-171114676.html

Meanwhile, BDEV cleaning up http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/barratt-expects-near-160pc-rise-073805380.html Well, with flat prices (nominal) and loads of help to buy a new home, it's the one part of the housing market where money is still being made.

Best 20 property related 'Matt' cartoons. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/propertypicturegalleries/9054056/Top-20-Matt-cartoons-on-property.html?image=1 Love the caveman! Edited link

Ah, that'll be the Jubilee effect

Tiz madness, sheer madness . Prices are at least 15 to 20% down from peak here in Glasgow (and at least 10% in the real nice bits too).

Looks like Van and I both might have been a bit pessimistic on our 1 year forecasts. (Although nowhere near as pessimistic as some here ) http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18671908 Unless we take London out of the equation (and here are the monthly if anyone's interested) http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/indices-land-registry-national-monthly.php Dec 11 was £160,384 2% fall by Dec 12 is ~£157,176 5% fall is ~£152,365 Currently £161,677 about 0.8% up on the year so far (not including inflation).

Thanks for the info borassic, hope it all goes through OK. Think the banks should all be nationalised now. Burn the bond-holders and get things moving again. Thanks for the usual patronising post Van. (Did you really teach your granny to suck eggs?) Take the land reg figure for dec 2011, then take the land reg fig for dec 2012 and work out the difference. Simples All the rest is irrelevant noise (surely even you know this?) .

??? Keep on hoping Van. We are only half way through the year, and the spring bounce is over. Do you really think the next 6 months will be better than the previous 6? Really? Just another 0.5% off over the next 6 months? Good luck with that (PS my forecast was actually up to 5% nominal, and up to 10% real ) http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=15757&view=findpost&p=235751

Nationwide data out http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/June_2012.pdf Down 0.6% MoM Down 1.5% YoY So, seems John Doe is still odds on favourite to bag the "guess for the next year" two years running On a side note, (warning, about to rant) I am really really really pi**ed off with the latest b(w)anker shenanigans. FFS, asfter all that has happened over the last 5 years, not only does Barc’s manipulation of the LIBOR emerge, but within 24hrs, it seems they (practically all) not only ripped of the public with miss-selling of insurance, but, once they had been caught, went on to rip off our SME’s and fledgling companies too! AAAAAARRRRRRGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! FFS!!! come-on!!!!! Enough is enough!!! They're just taking the p*ss and laughing!! Lets nationalise the bas*ads NOW!!! I don’t care if they go bust, we can nationalise them for free then. I don’t care if my house price falls, it’s worth it to get things right again. I don’t care if my pension is reduced because of it, as it means my kids (and the rest of the country) will be far better off. Fuk*n wan**rs (Rant over, for 10 mins)

Ah right, cool. How much was the online EA (if you don't mind me asking) and did the local one do much better (and did that cost anything considering you were already advertised etc and the buyer came from the first one)? I'm guessing the local one had a number of potential buyers on their books? On the negotiating, I've directly negotiated all but two of my house buys, and all but one of my sells. I used to regularly negotiate on £1m+ semiconductor fab tools 10 years back and I still really enjoy it (actually get a buzz from it). Horses for courses and all that ).

Sounds good. I be interested to know how easy it was, as when I come to move next I'm going to try and avoid the EA's up here as much as possible. However, I would still like to get the place on Rightmove etc so am planning doing all the marketing stuff and viewings/negotiations etc myself (as we ended up doing last time when we went through a crap EA!) and asking a family friends relation (who's an EA down south) to put my stuff on RM using their account (hopefully for whatever it costs them, plus a drink).

That seems fair enough. If I was buying it I’d be happy enough to meet you there. Then again, I'm a nice guy But seriously, I just don't understand why people looking to buy a >£350,000 house (which I'm guessing they have their heart set on) quibble over a few grand. In the grand scheme of things, for the buyers it's pennies, and pales into insignificance over the years. I’ve bought/sold a few over the years and if I like a place, of course I try and negotiate the best price I can, but if the seller is realistic and is prepared to meet me half way between what they think it’s worth and what I think it’s worth, then I've generally been happy enough with that. I also do the same when I’ve been the seller. Good luck!

How low would you go?

Offer to meet them half way and see what they say? On the banks, apparently, as all the big boys were downgraded together (and it was widely expected), the effect will be minimal. Indeed, Lloyds and Barc etc rose on the news today (maybe because BoE are about to give them loads of, essentially, free funding to offset any increased funding costs?).

Oh and mortgage rates set to fall it seems. Not sure if the lower costs will actually be passed on mind, we will see. http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/mortgage-rates-set-tumble-banks-111410426.html;_ylt=AoRC0jM4JfcwVCPUWxa5W4PSr7FG;_ylu=X3oDMTRqaHVudm8wBG1pdANGZWF0dXJlZCBDYXJvdXNlbCBIb21lIEZQBHBrZwM2NGE5Zjk5Yy0yNDBiLTNmOTYtYTdkMS05ODdiYzQzYzA5ZGUEcG9zAzQEc2VjA01lZGlhRmVhdHVyZWR

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18532863

WTF? Think your slightly over analysing there. Some of us actually just think not everything is black and white

Not at all. I just found their interpretation of a brief (probably) drop in the price of gold being equated to an increase in house prices as quite strange and unexpected, especially coming from what are usually considered mainstream commentators. I don't know much about the gold market (except it seems actually quite small and very easily manipulated) so I don't comment on it, but I do have a small amount (just in case ).

Indeed we do. But wow, I've always liked Home.co.uk for their realistic assesment of the market in the UK (usually quite bearish) but I've never seen them talk like this before! http://www.home.co.uk/asking_price_index/HAPIndex_JUN12.pdf

Yet, they are taken from what is generally considered to be the most concise (actual sold price) data set there is (whereas, AFAIR Home use asking price data). You also have to take inflation into account; there's been a fair drop (real) due to that too. You just seem to have a knack for being in the rare places where nominal prices don't fall. You know, a bit like the "rain god" in the hitchhikers guide to the galaxy, you could be the "high house price god" (sorry, couldn't resist, was reading it last night )

Perhaps it is just your area that has these problems after all BaB. Have a look at the Land Reg figures FaFa posted on HPC http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=179453&view=findpost&p=909058791 Nice graph. Of course, small pockets in some of these areas will be doing well, but overall, it seems it really is just London that has not been hit with prices significantly lower since the peak. Don't loose all hope just yet BaB

Hi GK, I think you might just be right. Even with a full blown Euro crisis, rates ain't gonna rise here in ole blightly, indeed, quite the opposite if anything. The one thing that makes me think we might still get another 5-10% nominal fall is the restriction in lending, which, with the ever increasing capital ratios etc required by the regulators, looks to be the general course for the next few years.

Well put. In the UK at the moment, it is said that 90% of places are cheaper to buy than rent at present. Of course, in those calculations there are many assumptions (and some costs left out, but even stripping them out, its probably about the same cost (rent/buy) in about 50% of places. And there are the other factors that make owning preferable, as you have pointed out (landlords being a**h*les for 1, making it just as you want it, being able to add value with extensions etc etc etc). When the kids arrive and the schools become important, for example, a landlord deciding to sell can life very tricky. Oddly though, in the nice areas by us (suburbs with good schools etc), it makes sense to rent (yields about 3%), yet in the other nice bits (more built up like the W.End etc) it makes sense to buy (yield about 6%). Of course, it's almost impossible to rent where we are, yet loads for rent in the W.End, weird (Also, for the savings, are you assuming tax free saving?)

300K to 400K, jees Van, the vast majority of the UK have an average house with price of ~160k of less That reduces those figures somewhat, so moving from 160k to 200k --------- Stamp duty: 2k Covenyancing costs: 0.7k (what we paid last time) Moving cost: 0.5k (Speedy Movers, Glasgow - Brilliant guys) Selling --------- EA fee @1%: 1.6k conveyancing cost: 0.6k (what we paid last time) Remortgaging fee - No fee deal Total: £5.4k And, you aren't including the mortgage that has been paid down over the period, and you aren't allowing for any capital gains (depending when the person bought the property) and and and...... we could go on forever. Bottom line is that, at the right time, buying is a no brainer. At the wrong time, well heh, that depends on your situation. If you can afford the mortgage, and have a secure job(s), and it's cheaper to buy than rent, then it could still make sense for some. Note I said, for some. For the rest, at present, it would be foolish. PS Can't remember the thread, but locked in 100 ticks on my dow long earlier, not sure how long this bounce will last.