John Doe

So the south would be like the north? Ooch, what a horrible thought

"Oh man, don't hit me with those negative waves so early in the morning" -IRs for personal loans and business certainly can go lower, and will as the credit supply starts to get back to normal (not crazy 2007 levels, but not stupidly low 2009-2010 levels either). -We are at market prices. QE skews it, but the market is the market, and as such it still results in market prices. -BoE and governments have always interfered. Whether it was MIRAS or other interventions. Has always been, will always be. -Growth reduces deficits (so long as spending is reduced as is at present). Lower deficits = lower debt growth = more that are willing to lend. -ZIRP makes savers poorer, borrowers richer. On the whole, we're s**t loads wealthier than we were even 20 years ago. -Well that doesn’t seem to worry them at the moment. All points regarding economics are subject to reasonable doubt. Incomes have been rising at over 2% for the last few years, even during the worst downturn in three generations. They will continue to rise, and at a greater rate, as things start to improve from s**t, to just about OK, to not so bad, to the new normal. Things ain't anywhere near as bad as they could have been, and people (except maybe on here and HPC) are starting to realise it. The only advice I can offer to those that won't even counter the possibility that the worst may now be over, is to never forget the immortal words of OB... EDIT more suitable clip for my current attitude..after all, we ain't gonna starve. "Hi man..."

Yeah, end of the world, different this time etc etc. Been hearing it for the last 50 years or more. You do not know what will happen any more than I do. And, it actually does matter that the debt is long term and that the BoE can print. It means that with the ability to buy their own bonds, and get their own bailed out banks to do the same (albeit behind closed doors), that a squeeze does not work (UK got thumped by that sort of thing back in 1992 and learnt the lesson well, which is why Darling moved to lengthen the maturity in his last throw). Besides, the markets aren’t totally stupid. Better to get a regular income stream than force craziness, unless you're picking on someone that can't fight back (with printing etc). So yes, there are problems, but then again, there always have been, and there always will be. So, I guess we will see. At the moment, the most likely outcome is the economy will slowly improve over the next couple of years and the deficit will slowly reduce, with low-ish GDP growth. After that, who knows. I don't, and I'm pretty sure no-one here does either, no matter what they think they know. Credit supply, not necessarily rates is the key (unless rates go mental). Anyone with a half decent deposit can fix at lifetime low rates for 10 years now.

See previous posts. Probably more to do with ISA season being able to offer a few more 1/10ths of a percent, and a bit of catching up with other lenders (most near to 4% svr). One day, the real rate rises will come. One day, but not today. Best guess, two or 3 years.

It was actually more to do with the mortgage lenders (indeed, all lenders) suddenly stopping lending to anyone that could put a cross on a bit of paper. They haven't really restarted yet. There are still very strict criteria in place and only very recently has the 90% mortgage started to reappear, let along the 95. I agree there is only one way rates can go, but they wont rise properly for some time yet, and most will fix when that time comes. The markets know full well the situation in the UK at present and they already know the deficit will take longer to reduce than the conlibs originally thought (Even the ratings agencies have caught up on that one). They also know the UK debt has an average 14 year maturity. Along with the BOE and nationalised banks buying UK bonds when needed, they know it's really not worth the bother trying to put on a squeeze, when there are far easier targets elsewhere.

It has always been so, about the 10% mark, boom or bust. Those few with the big mortgages, that they can't afford already (and therefore cannot remortgage), might think about selling, yet they might just get into more debt (as already happens with some, credit cards or whatever), or even rent out (as many also do). Just the same with unemployment. An extra 1 million now are unemployed, yet, there aren't an extra 500,000 houses for sale (assuming 2 workers per house). Indeed, the number for sale is lower now than before (albeit with less buyers too). Besides, many sitting on a 3.5% SVR have been doing so because they couldn't be bothered spending about two hours (and paying a fee of about £1000) to get a new deal that would only be saving them a little bit anyway (I know one or two). For example, my fix rate is 3%. The difference sitting on a 3.5% SVR is not that great. At 4%, it makes people think again and makes it worthwhile to go for a new deal. When we get proper rate rises, things will be different. When that finally comes, is another question.

No, I don’t think it is. Indeed, it's pennies for the vast majority (Halifax Av of ~67k for SVR mortgage holders) so that's less than £1 per day. (Might have to have to skip a couple of lattes or pints a week?) It will only affect a relatively small number right on the margins. A rise in base from 0.5% at present to 1% is a 100% rise, but it will only really hurt when we see "proper" rate rises when we get back to positive "real" interest rates.

So did the USA (average of 4 years, compared to the UK's of 14 years). But heh, I guess being the reserve currency has some advantages. The other point to note is that the markets believe the UK can sort it’s problems (great as they are). It’s not that clear regarding the PIIGS.

Seems its average mortgage (on SVR) is less than £70k, so adds up to less than £5 a week difference. In fact it just brings them into line alongside Nationwide etc. RBS also now saying their 0.25% rise in NOT on its SVR. Just the offset and one-account mortgages. Ah well. One day the rates will rise properly. But not today.

A 3.5% SVR raised to 4%, works out about £28 a month for the average £100,000 (repayment) mortgage. Less than £1 a day. Not nice if you're struggling, but hardly a time bomb (and some are only expected to change by half of this, i.e 3.5 to 3.75). Wouldn't be surprised to see the chancellor give a similar amount back to households in the budget. Exactly, they'll need to double before real problems begin. Even those with the crazy mortgages put in the bad bank (NR and B&B ) are managing to pay back way better than expected, so much so that the "bad banks" together just announced a huge increase in profit to over a billion quid!

Trap?

It's the old spring ..... (can't bring myself to say it). http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/january-mortgage-lending-posts-surprisingly-093435925.html

Now the builder have so much cash, they're giving it back (to investors). http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/persimmon-return-1-9bn-investors-104303792.html Yet (Blamed on selling more small houses, opposite to some of the other builders)

Seen any new build ghost estates (as they call them in Eire) in the UK recently? It was just part of the reason, not all of it. As you point out, there were/are many factors and for these so-called experts to ignore some of these (i.e the crazy oversupply in Eire, US and Spain, with a reduction in new housing in the UK), is ignoring the obvious.

Yes, I remember his prediction for BDEV a couple of years back. Yet today we see BDEV @ £1.40 Some track record Of course the UK market is likely to fall a bit, but supply has obviously had some effect. Even the old nah-sayers have come, eventually, to admit this. That's why US, Spain and Eire were hammered everywhere, and the UK only partly hammered in the areas where no one want to live.

Bumper profits from BDEV (and it' little friend). With much coming from homes built on cheap land bought in the crash of 2009 (when even old prince chaz was hoovering up commercial land at 50% discount) http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/constructionandproperty/9098319/Bumper-profits-from-UK-house-builders.html BDEV hit £1.40 today!

See BDEV at £1.30 now too.

Told you to be wary of Rightmove http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/house-prices-see-sharpest-rise-094421364.html

Yes, that's a really good point. I think the UK suburbs are probably quite different from the US "burbs". For example, where I am, there are two rail stations within 10 to 15 min walk and bus route closer than that.

very good I grew up in a smelly tower block (well the lifts and staircases smelt). I would love to have grown up where my child is now growing up (in suburbs, but right on the edge of the countryside). Then again, I guess the grass is always greener and she'll hate it

Stranger things have happened

Wait till he has kids

Yep, and the banks too. Then again, in a truly fair world, we in the UK (& West) would all be very very much poorer, as our "wealth" was spread around the whole world.

Not sure about that. I heard they have been selling quite a few of their properties over the last few years, and still making a pretty penny on the "re-financed" others.

Oh you're gonna love this GM. Fergus Wilson - yes, the male half of the BTL king and queen "The Wilsons", he who's image has been linked with yours in the past - is looking to stand as police commissioner! (Kent! No, not ****, the county Kent ) http://www.kentonline.co.uk/kent_messenger/news/2011/november/16/landlord_in_bid_for_police_chi.aspx