John Doe

No need to apologise, I am actually looking for flat or a very slight dip (for a good few years too), in order to address the rebalancing required in the least harmful way for the average family. Price rises is the last thing I want.

Sentiment still improving, (albeit from a low base) just as expected. http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/homeowners-confident-house-prices-rise-064606503.html

And up nearly 5% today (along with rising banks). up and down like a ......

Yep, falling along with the banks and others, as usual.

I take your point, but even these areas had a big fall 2007-2009 that could have been classed a crash (albeit with some recovery since). Take into account real prices too and they're still down 10% from peak at least, although, with the crazy prices you guys pay for rent down there, that's probably not that comforting.

Ain’t that the truth For those not aware, here is a rough guide to the indexes and how they collate them. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12076365 (Out of all of them, I still think Home.co.uk actually give one of the most accurate and realistic reports)

Rightmove FFS. Still using them for your "crash cruise speed" marker Dr B? Rightmove are the most way out of all the indexes. However, at least they acknowledge some of their failings. Also they note With demand (i.e. those that can get a mortgage) down about 40%, or even 50% judging by actual transaction numbers, this figure would suggests flat or very slowly falling prices (as there was way more demand than supply up until late 2007).

Just in case anyone missed this... http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9195387/UK-on-brink-of-lasting-recovery-OECD-finds.html Told you there had been a marked increase in sentiment this year (from the total doom everyone felt last Autumn/Winter). However, to be honest, with the SHTF again in EU land, I'm not sure if it will last.

The 2007 to 2009 crash, even witnessed in London and Berks so I believe BaB. A few nice places in really sought after areas have risen a bit since then, indeed some back to peak levels. However, it's clear from all the surveys that the rest of the country (including the north, the midlands, the south west, wales, scotland, N. Ireland, etc etc, you know, everywhere except the south east hasn't. It seems from your comments that your little pocket of the world appears to be one of the areas that has returned to peak. PS in real terms even these are down >10% on the fiddled CPI, and even more so if real inflation figures are used

Do I ever stop yeah right. Prices had way more than doubled in the 7 years till 2003. Where were you back in 2003 when The Economist and others (including a few names here and on HPC) were all warning about overpriced houses and bubbles?? http://www.economist.com/node/1812326 Then the EU and USA then dropped their rates through the floor, and even UK rates were are at essentially historic lows. As for single issues, FFS, you are the one stating that the rise in rates (a single factor) precipitated the drop in prices. And I quote... Wrong, wrong wrong! By your reckoning, the drop in rates that occurred 2007-2008 should have produced a boom . Guess what, it didn't because, as everyone else in the world knows, it was A full blown (and very rare) Credit Crunch! Occam's razor. In simple terms, it was the end of easy loans (including the 125% LTV etc) given to anyone with a pulse. THAT is what that caused the crash, not a paltry 1 or 2% rate change. Talk about "misunderstand or oversimplify" If ever in history there was a single reason for a crash, the sudden massive restriction in the supply of credit, coming straight after the most easy credit in history was it! Jees, FFS, this is basic, basic economics 101. Check your facts before slinging mud Van, and then, perhaps, sling it where it belongs

See the 2, 5, 10 and 30 year yields have been coming back down again too over the last couple of weeks. http://www.yieldcurve.com/marketyieldcurves.asp Strange, what with the pound getting a little stronger vs the Euro etc.

That link takes you to this comment and, as was pointed out shortly after.... There was a bigger relative rise in rates earlier in the decade (3.5 to 4.75 from Oct 03 to Aug 04), didn't cause a crash though (although it did slow HPI). Indeed, it is abundantley clear that it was the collapse in the supply of credit that caused the 2007 - 2009 crash. As that supply of credit is still restricted (yet nominal prices seem to have stabilised), it stands to reason that it will take more than a % or two on SVR's to cause a real crash now. Maybe a sudden increase in unemployment or a major EU (or other) shock causing all rates to rise by 3% or more will do the trick. Until then, the slow slow grind down will probably continue, until a major shock, or until the credit taps are turned on again.

Yep. Pay growth up too, 2.3% now.

What? No mention of the Halifax data today? YoY ~ flat Crash cruise speed delayed once more. Maybe next month.

Yeah I know , I was responding to the article (they also included social housing and other types too) with a bit of tongue in cheek. Then again (as has also been pointed out before) together with the fact that only about 10% of houses change hands etc, it shows how such a relatively small percentage of the "market" actually dictates "price" etc. You'd think in such times price fluctuations would be much wider.

In case anyone was wondering........ It seems total mortgage debt is about £1.3Trillion give or take a £100Billion or so, whilst value of all residential private housing seems to be somewhere between £3.5Trillion and £4.5Trillion. So add in the other housing, as the report did, and I'd guess you're not too far off the 20%LTV they suggested, April 1st or not

Haha yes April fools :lol: Did you see the one(s) on HPC? Not nearly as funny Wonder if any stories coming out this morning are real

Seems the UK housing stock as a whole is worth (on paper) £5.5Trillion and has a LTV of only 20% Even if all the properties have been 100% over valued, that still gives a national LTV of only 40%, capable of getting all the best deals Not quite as bad as some try to make out, is it? http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2012/mar/30/house-prices-guide-property-hotspots# Seems the UK could cope with a significant fall in prices after all. As a whole .

Yep, quite right Van. Wondered if anyone would notice that (even HPC'ers picked up on it within 4 posts) Seems that many are only interested in the NSA when it works the other way Then again, the spring bounce is a real phenomena (weird as it is) so it’s not totally unfair to revise down in such circumstances.

Nationwide down 1% MoM. Wow, perhaps people really did try and beat the stamp duty cut off. Should have just waited and got a couple of % off later

Good point. For them I don't have much sympathy.

Except 25 years ago, when they took out the mortgage, £25k was a bloody good LTV deposit. (Av house price when they took out the deals back then was less than £40k) Guess they'll just have to remortgage for the remaining £15k while rates are at their lowest ever (before they rise). Hardly a reason to sell, but might just affect a few at the margins. Always thought they were a bad idea myself. Letting someone else gamble your money is always going to be a risk.

I wish Yep, hands up, I did. I took it as a dig at the time (as it could have been read) although, AFAIR, I actually admitted that at the time. One of the difficulties of not speaking face to face is that posts can be easily interpreted the wrong way. I only brought it up today as I saw the price and thought it was an interesting example after Sine270's thread about what could have been (especially as BDEV has been used as an indicator by some over the years). http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=16156 The point I was trying to make was, we really cannot know what the future holds, even though sometimes it seems so clear at the time, and the old saying ~"step in when others fear", does seem to pay off, sometimes. Besides, if I hadn't taken all the advice and insights of the posters here so seriously, I could be a bl**dy millionaire by now! :lol:

Well well, that was back when BDEV was below 90p. BDEV now at 150p Interesting looking back, isn't it?

And a better deal from the lower LTV.