John Doe

24 hrs on, and still Merkle and Hollande haven't scuppered Draghi? Could this really be the start of the turning? (Still think this could be THE most significant announcement of the EU crisis so far) Amazed there is so little coverage. As for myself, went long yesterday, and plan to stay that way (for the next few days at least, as not so sure the'll keep the show going longer than a few days ).

Yes, I believe that's what I was saying here.... "the greed and selfishness of people who screw the system (whichever it is) for their own benefit (including the interventions in the "free market" which after all protects them the most)". In the same manner, you've never seen True Socialism fail either. True (or pure) capitalism has, to the best of my knowledge, never been tried (allowed) in modern times. As such, I guess it still remains a theory as to whether it would actually work or not in todays society. The trouble with most theories involving people, is that people get in the way. Talking of interventions…. So, considering that there is a s**t-load of money (being held by, amongst others, our beloved FTSE 100 companies) where/what do you think it will flood into once (if) they decide to finally sort this mess (be it ECB printing, Eurobonds, debt relief/jubilees.... etc etc)?

Nor I, but I've seen capitalism fail for the same reasons, the greed and selfishness of people who screw the system (whichever it is) for their own benefit (including the interventions in the "free market" which after all protects them the most). The thing is, not everyone has the drive/ambition to work hard and get to the top. Many just want to do a fair days work for a fair days pay and be able to look after their family without the constant threat of redundancy and ever reducing wages, pensions etc etc. Those with the drive to get to the top often seem to forget this (perhaps they never realised it?) and seem to expect everyone to think like them? So, I guess if you take the best bits of both, with solid, unbreakable rules to contain the excesses of those that seek to twist the rules, then perhaps there would be a better system? However, I haven't a clue how you can get any real change while those capble of producing it are the ones with the most to lose.

Grim. Then again, GDP figures take account of (fiddled) inflation. Wages don't. If a fair bit of your GDP is derived from wages, then wouldn't you expect a fall if wages aren't keeping up with inflation? Honest question.

Yeah, saw that earlier and thought Doh! However, it did go on to say (and after all, it's all about the effects people feel, rather than the headline numbers, which are just relative after all )...... Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/news/article-2177254/Recession-worse-1970s-figures-set-economy-shrank-quarter-row.html#ixzz21TfJlxVk

Yes that's actually a much better description. I’m a bit disillusioned myself to be honest, but about all countries, not just ours, which gives me hope that the PTB will eventually pull their fingers out and do something, before we start having revolutions (especially after the latest revelations about the multi trillion dollar hoards of the super rich). Indeed, it'll be what it will be.....

Timing Blair.... http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/blair-admits-responsiblity-economy-132216809.html Better late than never, now how about starting to put it right with a call for a global minimum tax deal and a clampdown on the private banks enabling such massive tax evasion.

Just re-read and saw the link! FFS! What I see a possible solution to the mess the world is in today. I’m all for getting higher rewards for working hard, but no single person should be able to amass anything like some of these, it’s obscene. Tax these ignorant ba**ads, and tax them hard (in fact, even a small amount would solve s**t loads of problems). Time for a global tax agreement aimed at these super rich. When individuals are wealthier (and seemingly more powerful) than nation states, it's time to do something and bring them back to reality. This is absolutely astounding, I knew there was a lot of super rich in the world, but FFS, this is beyond belief! Makes the case for higher taxes for the rich (and the introduction of a minimum tax rate that MUST be paid, before the accountants start playing their games) pretty indisputable IMHO. I've said many times before, "just how many millions does one person need"? I should have been saying "just how many billions does one person need"! More here (where they point out the figures do NOT include their assets like gold, property etc etc) FFS! http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/super-rich-hold-32-trillion-122808711.html;_ylt=AldXvyu__ncLfkuzmG0gAzDSr7FG;_ylu=X3oDMTNzaGNiMnE3BG1pdANGUCBUb3AgU3RvcnkgUmlnaHQEcGtnAzQ0ZTYxNjJhLTlkMGQtMzFjZC1iZTI1LTc2NTUzNjE1MTc3OARwb3MDMQRzZWMDdG9wX3N0b3J5BHZlcgM0NGQ5MjE2MC1kM2ZlLTExZTEtYmZmOS1mZDI1YzczM2FkN2Q-;_ylg=X3oDMTFpYnVpbmRoBGludGwDZ2IEbGFuZwNlbi1nYgRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25z;_ylv=3 This should probably have a thread of it's own Meralti.

Depends how you look at it. With inflation falling and now wages almost catching up, crazy low long term fix rates (and likely to get lower soon), and yields of 6-7%, then even if they subsidise the renter for several years, the return they will get once the mortgage is paid off will likely be a better return than available from equivalent payments into a private pension over that period. Example (please pick apart, as I’m almost convincing myself to sell the house and get a couple of BTL's ). I pay ~£10k per year into my pension. After 25 years (£250K pot) I will get a return of ~ £10k per year OR Even if I have to pay £2K per year subsidising someone renting a flat I bought at £10k per year. Rents rise over the years, so after say 10 years no more subsidy. After 25 years (i.e. 10 years of subsidies so a £20K pot) and the mortgage is paid off (Even if rents don't rise, then 25 years at 2K put in by me = £50K pot) and an income of £10K per year (after accounting for £2k PA maintanence etc). Although I don't agree with it (AFAIC, it needs serious regulation changes, and far more rights for renters), I can see why some do it. (Of course, if your expecting total financial meltdown, then yes, it would be better to sell then wait for the prices/interest rates to drop further, blooody speculators ).

Thanks for the info Meralti, I know what you mean about info on public boards etc, I edited mine down a bit (although I didn't think I was being emotional, I would have used angry faces if I had been ). No I'm not a secret BTL'er (sometimes wish I had been 15 years ago mind ) and think that is another sector that needs serious reform/regulation (more rights for tenants etc). Totally agree about bad governance etc, but I still believe many go into politics for the right reasons, just the system no longer enables anyone but the top few to dictate policy and the rest have then to adhere to it, if they want to keep/advance their career that is. Also seems that this trait is learnt from a young age, as if you don't follow the party line from your first internship, you aint getting anywhere in politics. This is a big part of the problem too, and I think all those wishing to stand for election should have at least 5 years real work experience, NOT gained in politics. I used to be totally capitalist (strange really, considering my past) but the older I get, TBH, the more I'm thinking it is so skewed to the 1% that a little bit more socialism wouldn't hurt (not too much mind ). I would happily accept a reduction in living standards if the quality of life improved. Like if health and education services etc improved massively and job security was reintroduced with the goal (dream perhaps) of full employment again, like there used to be. You know, before it somehow became acceptable to have millions and millions of people not working Actually that does make me emotional/angry How the f*k did that happen? Anyway, moving on.....I'd be interested about hearing you views from your experiences abroad. i.e. what are the best (and worst) bits about the systems in the countries you worked in when abroad?

Nice bit on HPC about this and from KA http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=181031&view=findpost&p=909094050 Yes I think living standards will fall further before things improve, but not as far back as even 20 years ago, let alone the 70's. (Also agree with KA's points).

Benefited from leaving school into a mass recession and taking any pozy bit of work I could for several years? Benefited from getting off my arse and starting a business as soon as conditions allowed, that then got hammered when the next recession arrived? Benefited from working my nuts off to retrain, with the wages I earn being lower in real terms by 50% compared to what they would have been 25 years ago, spending weekends and holidays renovating houses to enable us to live in a nicer area than I grew up........? Yeah that's probably what makes me so sanguine However, unlike some, I stupidly did not over borrow, nor did I overspend. I learnt the value of money very young and have always lived within my means. So in that respect I guess I did benefit from being born when I was. Whoopee do! Seems that you've done OK for yourself over the years, mind if I ask how did you do it? PS Yes, I could earn more if I worked elsewhere, but I enjoy my job and with the choices we have made, it just about pays enough to enable my wife to stay at home while the kids are young. There's more to life. Edit.. too much info.

Of course it's bad out there, (especially for the young) but seriously, it's not as bad (yet) as in the mid 70's early 80's. (No-one said it wouldn't get worse before it gets better BTW). Anyone who thinks it’s as bad now as then, has either lost their memory, or wasn’t actually there. And yes, the job losses then were mainly older blue collar workers (and those with families to support, which could be considered worse?), but when those factories and mines shut en mass, what do you think happened to all the school leavers that would normally have gone straight into those jobs? That's right, straight onto the dole, there were no other jobs, there was no university to go to (unless you were very well off, or perhaps a natural genius from the estate lucky enough to have a teacher capable of spotting talent). Make no mistake, youth unemployment was massive then, and remember, in many areas it hardly improved even during the boom. As for buying houses, no-one I knew back then even considered buying a house. It just wasn't an option we considered (nor was university either). Apparently, those that did (that weren’t from rich families) actually used to move in with their wife's parents so that they could save for a deposit back then! Can you imagine that!

Ignoring the uncalled for "calm down" , yes there are many problems today, and I have acknowledged that many times. I have also stated many times that the finance industry needs to be sorted "ASAP". The generational point is interesting. Someone leaving school (university) say in 1992 would never have experienced a recession, indeed, things improved year on year all the way to 2007-8, so for them the situation today seems really bad (they had a bloody good run mind). However, for people leaving school in the mid 70's to early 80's, this is nowhere near as bad as it has been before. Moreover, for people leaving school in 1940, then this is a breeze etc etc. I guess it’s all relative. (PS Rose tinted view! If my friends & family heard me described like that they'd p**s themselves laughing. They call me Dr Doom! Only on GEI (or HPC) could I ever be considered an optimist )

Do you think it was all part of a master plan, or just a consequence of a system that evolved over time, without proper controls, which enabled certain people to take advantage of it?

From my point of view, yes, a bank is a place to put money and borrow money from. From the banks point of view it is a company that wants to be profitable, just like any of the privatised utilities if you like. Thing is, the regulation of the banks (whole financial sector even) broke down, much like if OFCOM allowed the telecoms companies to take the p**s. Glass Steagall should be re-introduced ASAP. Er that's sort of the point isn't it. Your kids wear 2nd hand clothes because you choose to do that. You have a choice, see the difference? You speak like someone who can't remember just how different it was back then. Almost as if you have only experienced the good times. Do you mind if I ask did you entered the world of work before 1994? And where the hell do you get the idea that I don’t have a problem with my friend that hasn't worked for 15 years? I think it's shocking and have told him this many times. When we left school it was into recession, mass strikes, mass layoffs and mass unemployment. Our city had the 2nd highest unemployment in the UK, just after Liverpool, (of course, being kids, for us, it just seemed that was the way things were). It took me ~15 years to get out (several years of unemployment and odd jobs, couple of years of self employment, then, as the next recession hit, I went back to school and then university (and yes I worked evenings and weekends to do that, grants had finished a couple of years before and the loans I got didn’t even cover my rent). So, actually, I would think a 20 year old today could do far better than I did, and far quicker also. It seems you're trying to turn this discussion into an argument where none exists. Why?

Nice comparison. The old industry was inefficient (no investment for years will do that) and the unions did take the p**s. The government broke the unions, but nearly broke the country too. They also put the necessary conditions in place for improvement (not in all areas mind, some have still not recovered from the 80's), but that mainly came from people themselves and, like it or not, a large amount of the increase in living standards over the last 25 years or so has to be attributed to the financial sector, (noteably since Big Bang). Banks are, for all their faults, pretty efficient (at making money that is). However, I agree, they did get way too big and powerful, and I hate what has happened, but I don't remember people being forced to take out loans and MEW at the point of a gun. The greedy banks (and too a lesser extent the reckless borrowers) of course have to take a good bit of blame, but it was the government that allowed this to happen, indeed encouraged it with all those lovely tax revenues pouring in, and it is they that are the real culprits (and indeed still are). Not sure about that. I clearly remember many average (not poor mind) people having, for example, 2nd hand clothes at school, (good working class areas, most people were working class then ) and meat more than once a week was a real treat. Holidays consisted of a week at Butlins for the majority. This really wasn't that long ago (mid 70's). I would wager any study of living standards through the decades would confirm that people in the UK are far better off today with a much higher living standard (indeed, the majority are middle class today). The poor, and even some unemployed, including a good few friends of mine back home, (and my best man for that matter who hasn't worked for 15 years, and the council actually are buying his flat for him FFS! No really ) have designer clothes, trainers, big TVs, regular take-aways and holidays and many even have cars too! (Hmm, does sound a bit "let them eat cake" ish )

To be fair, from what I've read of his posts, Jake is no fan of the UK (TBH I don't think I've ever seen him say a good thing about it ). However, I take your point and, as I said, agree it has a lot of problems. Then again, I don't know too many places that haven't. I have always maintained that the crazy rise in house prices has sucked money out of the economy and into the hands of the bankers, getting more and more interest as mortgages rose. However, it could also be argued that the value of the Stock Exchange has been as (if not more) overinflated as the property market (see dot com boom for example), where also having been flooded for so long with cheap money, they reached a point where realistic valuations went out the window. I'm not sure just how many Americans actually have private pensions, but some would say their private pension timebomb is just as depressing as our "my house is my pension" brigade (of whom, although I hear about them, I've actually only ever met one). http://video.foxnews.com/v/1703100448001/underfunded-private-pension-debt-bomb/ I generally agree and believe that the departure from the old correlation between increasing wages being gained from productivity gains seen over the same period has been just as (if not more) detrimental to the country as the over inflated assets that arose from the cheap debt offered to placate the masses and distract them from the fact that wages had stopped growing along with productivity. However, whilst things are obviously not good, I don't think we should all just put up our hands and give up (not that you are saying this). I got slated here once for suggesting things were nowhere near as bad today as they were in the 70's, but I'll say it again, they're not, not by a long way. It was horrific back then, the country was ripping itself apart - IMF bailouts, open battles on the streets (with hard working family men, not just ar**hole kids like now), electrical blackouts all the time, 3 day weeks, unions Vs state etc, hell there was nearly a coup! - and practically everyone went into that crisis period relatively poor. Yes of course there were different problems and causes of those problems, but the effects were worse than we are seeing now and the country pulled out of it then, and it will come through this now. It will take time, but it's been a hell of a boom and the vast majority are still way way better off now than equivalent families were 40 (even 20) years back. There are also positives coming out at the moment, the public is paying down debt, slowly, but surely, inflation is falling and the number of people working is increasing even as the public sector is laying of 100's of thousands (although to be fair it's anyone’s guess as to how long that continues) and house prices are becoming more affordable in most of the country. Record numbers of people moving into self employment (necessity rather than choice, perhaps) the state is (and will be) shrinking (e.g. we have had a 1% pay increase during three years of ~5% inflation, pensions renegotiated etc) and this can also help rebalance some of the problems you highlight. Although, judging from conversations with colleagues from all around the world, I have to say UK academics are still actually not that badly off (there were some pretty big increases under Labour). The economy is, slowly, moving more towards manufacturing again and export markets are opening up around the world (as the reliance on Europe is being tested). However, there are still big problems and in addition to all the problems internally, the debacle in Europe is dragging down the whole world at present. If that gets sorted (big if) there is a chance that things will start bottoming out and start improving. Until then though, even I have to admit, it is difficult to be positive.

Oh it has problems, (indeed, quite severe problems), but I wouldn't go that far. UK is still one of the top 10 exporters in the world. Still the 7th biggest manufacturer in the world. Still produces about 10% of the worlds scientific output. And all this with less than 1% of the world’s population. Puts it in perspective when people try and compare the UK with Greece etc. They'll certainly keep trying.

Ah, but.....

ONS data out for May http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/uk-house-prices-rose-more-104707313.html New homes rising most. That’ll be nothing to do with the Newbuy Scheme then

Perhaps because they're the only ones that have a good enough job and credit score to qualify for one Rightmove out today. http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/sellers-must-drop-asking-prices-073611078.html Conversley, they say the Olympics has distracted people from house hunting, along with the bad weather of course

Hmmm, this is a bit mainstream..... http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/thomaspascoe/100018574/the-price-of-gold-has-been-manipulated-this-is-more-scandalous-than-libor/

Like it or not, this could limit the winter falls somewhat. The new bank lending scheme has just been laid out, and already the cheap mortgages are starting to appear. There is also a 7 year fix at 5.29% if you only have a 10% deposit! (assuming you have a good safe steady job and a high credit rating ) http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ianmcowie/100018632/hsbc-launches-lowest-ever-five-year-fixed-rate-mortgage/ Let’s see if the others follow suit?

Not sure, but this is