John Doe

BDEV 191, new high http://uk.finance.ya...c?s=BDEV.L&t=1m Seems many have underestimated the particular pequliarities of the UK market, and the lengths our PTB are prepared to go to, to prop up certain companies.

Yep, right smack bang in the middle of one of the biggest recessions ever, the number of people in employment is just a percent or so off the most ever in history, which was recorded at the top of maybe the biggest boom in history. All in all, not so bad then. Now I'm not defending current policies (actually I have moved a little towards the left on this now), or the data, (indeed, I was rather surprised, again, considering), but I still think it could be a whole lot worse. Also, until those that lose their jobs are forced to sell (forbearance in full effect at present), it aint gonna effect the prices of houses much (as has been the case, so far). As for the CML figures, that'll be the Olympics/autumn/bad-weather/global-wierding-effect etc.

UK unemployment down again. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-19975719

Well, it's all relative. Greece has austerity. Portugal has austerity. Eire has austerity. Spain is getting it, whilst we are just cutting down on the odd latte etc and letting inflation do the rest. Hey ho

Keep an eye on the forecast on credit market conditions. Whilst remaining very bearish on most measures, for the first time in many years, it seems the EYIC UK forecast is now looking at an improvement in conditions coming in the next 6 months or so. http://www.myfinances.co.uk/investments/2012/10/15/item-club-uk-economy-set-to-grow-as-consumers-spend-more If the credit forecast turns out to be true, it might not mean a full blown recovery or boom, but you can forget your big crash for the foreseeable future.

Maybe they should seasonally adjust it

Oh Van, you didn't get it? What a shame http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-19946503 I was sure it'd be you this year

Rightmove out http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/lack-properties-sparks-asking-price-085421862.html :lol: Now can we please all agree that Rightmove is the worst of all the indices?

Debt forgiveness by another name? http://www.telegraph...for-growth.html It's not policy.........yet.

Halifx following too.... http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-19821613 Interestingly, they blame "the recession"! What, not the olympics? not the jubilee? not the weather? not the full moon? :lol:

So don't expect a massive rise in the number of properties being built to support our massively increasing population any time soon

Nationwide out! Now, as I live in Scotland, my 5% down for the year prediction might be good after all, well at least on a local level http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-19792133

I think the process is different for the Unity constructed places (they take the concrete away and replace with brick), but yes, I guess you'd have to get your neighbour to agree too. I saw a guy buy one in Plymouth really cheap, to let out, on one of those TV Property Pawn shows once. He got about a 15% yield AFAIR, as it was so cheap relative to other properties there.

If you get one cheap enough, you can have them converted to traditional build. http://www.mbeconsultants.com/unity.html We did this with another type of "non-taditional" build house (K-Lath construction) by essentially adding an exterior skin of stone/block walls.

Think he means these non-tradtional classed concrete panel houses http://www.msol.co.uk/main/h5093.htm

You sound like a great dad. Will you adopt me

Good point. Probably between 80k and 140k depending where you live and how much you do yourself. That would = two hefty deposits on two smaller houses for the kids, which, if security is your goal, could be bought with a 25 year fixed rate mortgage (~5.25%), might be a better option.

Fair play BaB. How much rent you gonna charge them, you sectret BTL'er

Yep, good points, and I pretty much agree on all of them, but regarding my particular situation...... I'm in the (lucky) position of having a regular stream of full time post-grad students (who get paid quite well, tax free, and are far more sensible/reliant than many undergrads) that are always looking for half decent accommodation (no voids over summer etc) and usually only for 3-4 years. Repayment mortgage has to be in place for this to work, as you say. As such, nominal price falls not really relevant. Future taxes = possible problem, but not likely while most of our mp's have BTL interests No problem in more rights to tenants, I would like to offer a good value, safe, decent property (especially as some of the tenants might well be my PhD students). Possible to now get 25 year fixed rate mortgages (5.25% seen yesterday). Weighing up all the pros and cons, it still looks a decent proposal (maybe better in a few years as you say). Thing is, a part of me has trouble feeling comfortable with the whole BTL thing (in it's current form) and, together with the fact that we'd like to move back down south in the near to mid future, I won't be going for it (at least for the foreseeable future). Perhaps when we're more settled, back down south. Cheers anyway JD

Cheers Van, however, if it is in a SIPPs does that not cover the tax issue? (I'm no expert on SIPPs) AFAIK the tax on rental can be offset via mortgage interest? Also it would be in addition to my other pension if I were ever to do it (unlikely TBH).

Hi Meralit, What do you think about a BTL as a pension instead? I ran an example some time back (hoping for someone to show me my error, as it actually got me considering the idea), but it got no responses (that's not to say it was correct). Obviously there will be a deposit to consider, but even after that, it seems that you are left with an asset and also an income.

Yeah looks like you might well be closer than my "up to" -5%. (Yes I did say "up to", however, you did give an exact figure, so you get the prize if it comes in at -2.5% ). PS where are all the original forecasts, on this thread or another?

Actually thinking of shorting it

BDEV up again! 173 and counting http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=BDEV.L&ql=1

Declan Curry on BBC24 just now talking about the Guardian article about investing in housing market value tracking products. (http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2012/sep/07/property-investment-bet-house-prices). He describes the product, then adds.....(But), "as we all know by now, house prices can fall, as well as plunge" Good to see the old BBC on the ball again, just as prices seem like they might have bottomed out, and (controversial warning) might even start rising again (well, anything’s possible if the BBC have finally turned bearish ).