The BP thread

[drbubb]

The BP thread : The BUY could be soon

 

Chart ... update-weekly : alldata-weekly : alldata-monthly : daily

 

525p or so, I reckon. The monthly chart suggests about 520p

 

at 572p, they are reporting:

Yield: 3.72%

P/E Ratio: 10.22

[No6]

520 will look attractive, but I read this today.

 

And in London today, oil heavyweight BP released a statement announcing third quarter oil and gas output of 3.8m barrels, a 0.6% drop and its fifth consecutive fall in output. The oil company announced that losses from its Prudhoe Bay oilfield in Alaska had outweighed the benefits of a benign hurricane season and new start-ups.

[No6]

An alternative view. I think this guy would rather buy London property.

 

You've heard of "peak oil", the idea that world oil production is already close to or even at its peak. Now comes the idea of "peak profits", the possibility that oil profits too may have reached their zenith. After the spectacular returns of recent years, it may be all downhill from now on. On the face of it, the two things would seem incompatible. If production is about to go into decline, then, assuming demand continues to rise, prices would logically remain buoyant too, ensuring higher profits still.

 

Yet as the BP share price, which yesterday sank to a 52-week low, already reflects, it is more than likely that the record profits currently being chalked up in big oil won't last. This may be as good as it gets. BP yesterday admitted that its oil and gas production in the third quarter was down both on the previous three-month period and on a year earlier. We knew about lost production at Prudhoe Bay in Alaska, but there has also been a comparatively benign hurricane season, so analysts had been expecting some uplift.

 

http://news.independent.co.uk/business/com...icle1800656.ece

[drbubb]

There's often negative analysts commentary on/near important lows

[frizzers]

Well, I'm very tempted to buy this today.

 

http://www.etfsecurities.com/csl/etfs_energy.asp

[No6]

BP has been slowly recovering, up 6-1/2 pence to 608 today.

 

520 looks some way off now, although if a general market correction happens, it might still get there.

[BillyPilgrim]

From Friday's Guardian

 

Viewpoint Pressure on Browne to up the BP divi

 

I think BP is a great company and undervalued. You won't get stellar growth, but you will get a reliable stalwart. I topped up this week.

[drbubb]

BP...

drifting back towards the lows

 

My old target (525p or so) may be seen yet

 

But given the time elapsed, and the progress of the MAs,

I would raise the target to maybe 540-550p

[No6]

The BP website looks very green.

 

http://www.bp.com/home.do?categoryId=1&contentId=2006973

 

But don't mention the safety issue in Texas. This has helped keep it's price adrift recently.

 

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Stor...amp;siteid=mktw

[drbubb]

"GALVESTON, Texas (MarketWatch) -- A Texas state judge ruled Friday that BP PLC (BP) must provide evidence showing that its Texas City refinery is safe.

District judge Susan Criss said that allegations that BP had cut corners in maintaining its refinery were "quite valid." Her comments came in a hearing Friday morning brought by plaintiffs who had previously settled claims with the London-based oil giant. The plaintiffs say BP has failed to promptly and adequately pay medical bills stemming from serious injuries sustained in a blast at the refinery on March 23, 2005.

The plaintiffs argue that BP has ignored its responsibility to maintain the plant, just as it has allegedly ignored the explosion victims' medical bills. "We think that pattern of conduct is continuing to leave the plant in an unsafe condition," said David Perry, a Corpus Christi, Texas, lawyer representing the plaintiff. "

[drbubb]

Finally, here's a trade idea for those who like to buy UK stocks:

 

BP Plc.

i am just updating my charts, and it looks like the ideal BUY price would be 535-540p:

chart ... update

 

That is not far away. Some may want to start nibbling at 550p or higher

At 561p: Yield is: 3.74% ... P/E Ratio: 10.23 (EPS: 54.8p)

 

ideal buy is 536p (probably sometime in the next 1-2 weeks)

at 536p, PE is 9.78 and yield is 3.91%, with a chance of increase

 

LET ME HEAR about your favorite UK energy stocks-

especially those with PE's below 10

[Vicarious]

LET ME HEAR about your favorite UK energy stocks-

especially those with PE's below 10

 

I like Royal Dutch Shell 'A' at 1,729.00p (P/E: 8.8 Div Yield: 3.6%) its in my high yield portfolio.

[No6]

I like Royal Dutch Shell 'A' at 1,729.00p (P/E: 8.8 Div Yield: 3.6%) its in my high yield portfolio.

 

Is 3.6% a high yield or are you expecting better in the future? I find the major UK oil companies surprisingly poor when it comes to yield as some banks are offering over 4-5%+ (both on shares and their savings accounts). Of course, you will also get capital return on your investment here, assuming the share price continues to go up.

[No6]

Just read this in the ADVFN market report. That 535-540 price range may be closer than we think depending on how the market reacts to this.

 

BP also fell back to close 4-1/2 lower at 552-1/2 and is expected to tell investors on Tuesday that trading in the fourth quarter has been tough, owing to falling oil and gas prices and refining margins.

 

Quarterly production figures are also unlikely to cheer the market as BP has already warned in October that output for 2006 is to reach 3.95 mln barrels of oil equivalent per day, down from 3.997 mln boepd in 2005 and below its guidance of 4.1-4.2 mln boepd.

[polo]

i presume youve all read this?

http://www.oilbarrel.com/feature/article.h...ed=oilbarrel_en

 

01.01.2007

Russia - Doing Business With People Who Think They Can Get Away With Murder Literally And Metaphorically Is Never Easy

 

oilbarrel.com has led the fielding in exposing the Kremlin’s crude nationalisations in the oil and gas sector. In a new three part series we look at moves leading up to Shell’s humiliation with Sakhalin-2 and what happens next. In part one, we ask whether BP could be next on President Putin’s hit parade

By Anthony Robinson

 

..............The Rosneft IPO was particularly painful for BP - which is likely to be the next target of Kremlin larceny if, or more likely when, Gazprom relieves it of its interest in the Kovykta gas deposit in eastern Siberia and becomes its “partner” in western Siberia by elbowing aside TNK. BP-TNK was obliged to “invest” US$1 billion in the Rosneft IP0 when faced with what is known in Palermo as “an offer not subject to refusal.” After the event a somewhat shame-faced BP official admitted that the company had essentially written off the billion as a “good will investment.”...................

[No6]

Like I said on the main oil thread, can't trust what Russia is doing right now.

 

"Good will investment".

[Sledgehead]

It's likely that insiders, having seen what happened to Shell, are already factoring in the Russia effect. Whether the wider investing public care, and more importantly, when, I can't say. But one thing is certain: whilst the goons we call leaders were fighting their Holy War in the mid-East, Moscow was preparing its own assault.

 

People seem to have forgotten the meaning of "an act of war". It is NOT executing or torturing or oppressing your own people. We have allowed and sponsored the same quite happily in the past and, correctly, never considered it to be an act of war. Neither is it the proliferation of a religion beyond a country's borders. We have after all conducted missions ourselves without declaring war.

 

Rather, an act of war is anything that threatens the financial integrity of another state. Given our oil majors are our largest companies, corporate larceny of the kind practiced by Moscow seems a much better example of an act of war than anything Saddam ever did to us. Add the Litvinenko assasination and Kremlin advice to the Home office that we should suppress publication of accusations of state sponsored execution, plus Moscow's heavy handed tactics with Belarus and Chechnya etc, and what reveals itself is a Kremlin barely distinguishable from that seen in Cold War days. But strangely our leaders say nothing. You want an elephant in the room? Look no further.

 

However, as with Hong Kong and the Faulklands, expect defeaning silence from across the Atlantic, even as we fight Bush's stupid, overblown quarrel for him in the Mid East. The fact is the war in Iraq was NEVER about right and wrong, only interests and what was achievable. We haven't even proven ourselves up to that task. All we managed to do was lose our moral authority. No wonder Moscow feels emboldened....

[drbubb]

IT is those fears over Russian actions and the low oil prices, which has pushed BP down to

its current low levels.

 

In a sense, BP can afford to be in Russia, thanks to the massive holdings of natural gas reserves

in North America, which it obtained through its takeover of Amoco

 

In any case, I am planning to buy Calls rather than outright longs- just in case

 

OPTIONS PRICES- with BP at $64.32

strike : FEB. / APR. / JUL. / ja08

$ 65.c :$1.55 /$2.40 /$3.40 /$5.10

$ 60.c :$4.50 /$5.50 /$6.30 /$7.90

$ 55.c :$9.60 /$9.80 /$10.3 /$11.3

 

 

does anyone care to guess why i am planning to buy US$ denominated Calls, rather than calls

on the uk quoted BP. ?

[drbubb]

BP. is trading around 540p as i post this.

 

I have just seen a fat idiot on Bloomberg saying he would avoid the stock

"Until management has demonstrated they are turning things around."

 

- which is exactly the sort of sentiment i want to see when i am buying on a

likely long term support level.

(I love taking money off these sort-of Bloomberg "expert" interviewees)

 

Anyone want to bite on that currency question??

[Vicarious]

Is 3.6% a high yield or are you expecting better in the future? I find the major UK oil companies surprisingly poor when it comes to yield as some banks are offering over 4-5%+ (both on shares and their savings accounts). Of course, you will also get capital return on your investment here, assuming the share price continues to go up.

 

Sorry should of put FTSE 100 high yield/low PE but yes there’s not many decent candidates there that I like I've got Shell, a couple of pharma's and United Utilities

[drbubb]

what's wrong with a 3.5-4.0% yield?

 

that's what you are getting in many UK property investments,

but i reckon you have- in the energy sector- much better potential for capital gains here

 

no gtee, of course. but that is my opinion

[Sledgehead]

what's wrong with a 3.5-4.0% yield?

 

that's what you are getting in many UK property investments,

 

Quite but moreover,

 

If div yield was quoted b4 depreciation, I could understand folks questioning 4% yields. By contrast, property permabulls always quote rental yields b4 depreciation. Show me rental yield after anuual brickies, sparkies, chippies, corgis etc fees (or if you don't choose to protect your investment by allowing it slowly fall into disrepair, amortise the 20-something year renovation cost) and then we'll compare asset classes.

[Guest Property Realist]

Does anyone really think that Energy shares will outperform Property in the long run?

[Leeds-bozz]

Now at 535p, down over 3% today.

[squeek]

Wonder where it will stop. Thinking of getting some for long term investment.

 

Dr Bubb: Could you explain why you're buying US calls in dollars instead of UK ones from the previous page? Just out of interest.