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I have been holding about 7K worth of BP shares for about a year now. Considering these facts

 

Price of oil going through the roof

BP buying back shares

Loads of cash

Troubles re Texas refinery settling down and largly accounted for in balance sheet

 

Why on earth is BP not rising?

 

Any clues?

 

I think the depressed price is mainly due to worries about BP's shareholding in TNK-BP. If it gets expropriated/stolen, BP's headline production figure would drop my circa 1Mb/d (around 25%), although the margin on the barrels is much lower than non-FSU barrels so the NI drop would be around 12-15% I believe.

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Peter schiff pick of the day Fox New "cashin' in" 14/06/08 was BP. He said that the price has lagged the hugh increases in Oil and thinks that it is due an increase.

 

re-rating has been talked about for a couple of years now, but still no sign. I'm hoping it happens though as I'm an employee of BP and as such am sitting on a rather large holding of stock in the company.

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re-rating has been talked about for a couple of years now, but still no sign. I'm hoping it happens though as I'm an employee of BP and as such am sitting on a rather large holding of stock in the company.

Can you tell us a little about what is going on with Russia? They compared the BP board to Nazi's today.

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Can you tell us a little about what is going on with Russia? They compared the BP board to Nazi's today.

 

It's not my geographic area I'm afraid - all I know is what's in the press really. Secondees are being kept out of the office by the authorities, lot's of work on hold. One school of thought is that the Russian shareholders are trying to ensure they get the most for their shares prior to a bigger Russian fish coming in (Gazprom, Rosneft?) and they're not going to go quietly, whilst another says there is a government back expropriation in the offing (stretchy to my mind - the GoR are trying to encourage foreign investment at the mo, so unlikely, but then again BP lost Kovykta, and Shell lost Sakhalin II).

 

If you're really interested, I'd google the AAR main shareholders to get their background stories - an 'interesting' bunch to say the least. No clean fights in FSU.

 

Happier to talk at the pub meet in July if it's still going ahead?

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I didn't realise there was already a BP thread, and I'll certainly make some time to read through it.

 

But I just looked at BP today and thought it looked like a good buy. Given the fundamentals, how can you argue with a chart like this? (no TA needed!)

bpfy9.png

 

Edited to add:

At 417p:

P/E: 5.37

EPS: 0.78

 

That's a screaming BUY to me. Whether we get inflation, deflation or stagflation, this is a company that does stuff and regardless of oil price will do well. What am I missing?

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Not sure but think they were getting hammered earlier in the year with the Russian fiasco, now that has been resolved but they didn't get too much of a bounce off that as oil was coming down by then, might be market worries regarding the government slapping some sort of windfall tax, this made some headlines a couple of weeks ago, but nothing recently.

FWIW I brought about 2-3 weeks ago for the very same reasons you mentioned earlier, they have since been slapped around a bit, although retrospectively i could have waited, but its easy to say that, possibly foolish but everyone always needs oil.

 

 

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I didn't realise there was already a BP thread, and I'll certainly make some time to read through it.

 

But I just looked at BP today and thought it looked like a good buy. Given the fundamentals, how can you argue with a chart like this? (no TA needed!)

bpfy9.png

 

Edited to add:

At 417p:

P/E: 5.37

EPS: 0.78

 

That's a screaming BUY to me. Whether we get inflation, deflation or stagflation, this is a company that does stuff and regardless of oil price will do well. What am I missing?

The chart is pretty clear, it's going down! Falling knife, the same as 100's of other stocks right now. Maybe totally irrational and many of these companies do not deserve what is happening to them, but that's the way it is. I think in these markets and until things settle, you can throw both fundamental and technical analysis out of the window, especially if you are looking for opportunites on the long side.

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BP had a bumper year, be interesting to see what they do next year though.

 

BP today announced record full-year profits of $25.6bn for 2008, an increase of 39% over 2007.

 

This came despite a sharp decline in the fourth quarter.

 

BP's fourth-quarter replacement cost profit was $2.587bn, compared with $3.395bn a year ago, a decrease of 24% due largely to the significantly lower oil prices. For the full year, replacement cost profit was $25.593bn compared with $18.37bn a year ago, up 39%.

 

http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=3545737

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382.00

-27.50 (-6.72%)

 

Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent? ;)

 

3 months later and BP are now 105 points higher, more or less back to around the £5 mark where it has been for some time prior to last autumn's sell off.

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BP profits down 53% YoY. Up 30% QoQ

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business...53-1763468.html

BP announced a 53 per cent slump in profits today, but the oil giant said it continued to steer "a steady course through choppy waters".

 

 

The haul of 3.14 billion US dollars (£1.9 billion) between April and June was well down on the 6.75 billion US dollars seen a year ago, a period when oil prices were approaching record high levels.

 

However, chief executive Tony Hayward said the figure was 30 per cent higher than the first quarter of the year, helped by a 4 per cent rise in BP's daily production to more than four million barrels of oil equivalent in the three months.

 

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Bump. BP announces quarterly results 2nd Feb, price seems to be consolidating after latest fall and could be a buy soon.

 

This news today.

 

BP chief hails American breakthrough in gas supplies from shale rocks

 

A controversial method of extracting gas from shale rocks and coal seams pioneered in the US has been described by the head of BP as a "complete game changer" that would transform the future of energy in that country over the next 100 years.

 

Excitement in the industry over "unconventional" gas supplies has led to a wave of investment in America which Tony Hayward, BP's chief executive, believes could eventually spread around the world.

 

"[unconventional gas is a] complete game changer in the US," he said in answer to a question at an energy summit which was part of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. "It probably transforms the US energy outlook for the next 100 years. It's yet to seen if it can be applied globally."

 

BP inherited a major stake in shale operations when it took over Amoco 12 years ago, but has added to that by spending $1.75bn buying shale interests from rival Chesapeake Energy in the summer of 2008. Last November BP showed its determination to extend the use of the techniques when it signed a production-sharing agreement with the government of Indonesia to exploit new reserves in Kalimantan.

 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/ja...gas-shale-rocks

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BP results disappoint the market so far today.

 

Oil giant BP’s chief executive Tony Hayward hailed 2009 as a ‘very good’ year for the company though it ended on a disappointing note, with fourth quarter profits failing to meet market expectations.

 

Underlying replacement cost profit in the fourth quarter was up 70% on a year earlier at $4.38bn, but fell short of analysts’ forecasts of around $4.7bn.

 

http://www.digitallook.com/news/3257748/Re...ername=&ac=

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A couple of diverse opinions on BP.

 

Ignore today's fall, BP's yield is too impressive to ignore

 

....Between them, Shell and BP account for about a fifth of all the dividends from the FTSE 100 and Tony Hayward, its chief executive, understands the importance of this. If it is cut, the share price reaction will make today’s falls look like small beans. Cutting the dividend is a last resort.

 

BP has also launched an optional scrip dividend payment for shareholders, and they can choose to receive the payment in cash or shares. This is a brave move by Mr Hayward as it’s bound to trigger comment that the dividend isn’t safe. But Mr Hayward is determined and his cost cutting and cash-preservation measures are part of his aggressive and active management style. This is a good thing for BP’s future.

 

On March 2 BP shareholders will get what’s probably a more important announcement: its strategy to increase reserves and production.

 

The shares are yielding 6.2pc in 2010, rising to 6.5pc in 2011. Investors should use today’s fall as a buying opportunity. The yield is too impressive to ignore.

 

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/garry...ive-too-ignore/

 

UK-Analyst.com: Tuesday 2nd February 2010

 

BP (BP.) shares fell by 23.4p to 571.2p after it reported underlying replacement cost profit for the fourth quarter of 2009 of 4.38 billion dollars, up 70% from 2008, but below expectations of 4.7 billion dollars. Weaker oil and gas prices, and pressure on refining margins, caused full-year replacement cost profit to fall 45% to 13.96 billion dollars. Total revenue rose 20% to 73.64 billion dollars, while earnings per share increased 31% to 18.38p. The quarterly dividend was maintained at 14 cents, with the sterling equivalent at 8.679p per share, down 12% on 2008. BP said that its reserve replacement ratio was 129%, the 17th consecutive year that this figure has exceeded 100%. 2010 forecast oil and gas output is expected to be down slightly on 2009 levels, as 2009 saw few interruptions to production. A "slow and gradual" recovery is expected in the US and Europe, while the gas market is forecast to be volatile. The pressure on refining margins is expected to remain. With a poorer outlook for 2010 and restructuring expected to continue, Panmure Gordon continued to rate BP as 'sell' with a 412p target.

 

If BP goes to 412 and the dividend holds, it will be about 8%+ yield? I feel that for BP to fall to 412 something would have to happen to the dividend commitment beforehand.

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Talk about putting your money where your mouth is.

 

LONDON (ShareCast) - BP’s new chairman Carl-Henric Svanberg has put his faith in his new employer by investing £4.3m in the oil giant’s shares.

 

He took 750,000 shares through his company CHAS Aludden.

 

Svanberg left Swedish mobile phone company Ericsson, where he had been president and chief executive since 2003, to take up his position at BP at the start of the year.

 

He succeeded Peter Sutherland, the former Attorney General of Ireland, as BP’s chairman.

 

News of Svanberg’s large share purchase comes the day after BP reported fourth quarter profits that were slightly short of expectations, but well ahead of the same period the previous year.

 

Top Director Buys

 

BP (BP.)

Director name: Mr Carl-Henric Svanberg

Amount purchased: 750,000 @ 574.94p

Value: £4,312,050

 

Digital Look

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Another view:

 

The bad news is that more cash left than came in. So the difference had to be borrowed.

 

That can¹t continue for too long. For 2010, BP is wary about both its trading prospects and also about disposal proceeds. So unless cash costs are clipped back hard, capex gets cut ­ or the dividend does.

 

Neil Woodford sold his entire stake last year because he reckoned the payout would be cut. I'm not forecasting that yet. But it's worth keeping a very close eye on BP's capex plans – and the oil price.

 

http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-charts/c...Money%2BMorning

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Neil Woodford sold his entire stake last year because he reckoned the payout would be cut. I'm not forecasting that yet. But it's worth keeping a very close eye on BP's capex plans – and the oil price.

 

Must either be very relieved or have the look of a cheshire cat!

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