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Is the British Homeowning obsession beginning to wane?


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Is the British Homeowning obsession beginning to wane?

Clues: Looking at the traffic into some major websites

 

Nationwide.co.uk - An erosion may be starting

graphnw.png

 

Rightmove's Shareprice ... update - A drop below 600p would confirm breakdown

rmv.gif

 

Rightmove.co.uk

graphrmv.png

 

PrimeLocation.co.uk - more expensive properties

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HousePriceCrash.co.uk - No December dive

hpcgraph.png

 

SingingPig.co.uk - Barely a heartbeat

graphsp.png

 

HouseWeb.co.uk - No chart

 

What else should I be looking at?

 

COMPARE:

Hong Kong's Centaline

 

= = = = =

LINKS:

 

HPC clone :: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...howtopic=151657

Woo ranks :: http://www.woorank.com/en/www/rightmove.co.uk

Top 50 UK :: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/336153...the-clicks.html

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Rightmove looks like an amazing short at this point

I was thinking the same thing as I posted those charts.

Before shorting RMV, I would want to have a better understanding of what caused the "pop" up.

 

...from the HPC clone...

Rightmove share price and hits are almost at all time highs, so it's a bit optimistic concluding anything from that.

Actually, if you look carefully at the chart on RMV hits, you will see that they have slid to below the uptrend line, and this may signal that a bigger slide is underway, as Rightmove's own index for Greater London is showing:

 

001nvlf.jpg

 

On "another website": we are discussing whether or not RMV is a good short here.

 

The move up in the RMV share price looks like a major confirmation

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The property bubble is well and truly dead. Property as an "investment" is dead.

 

Should interest rates go up it will be curtains for a huge number of households including the amateur BTL spivs (by spiv I mean the amateur crew who have 5 -20 properties) with high leverage.

 

Yes, we have witnessed the Last Gasp.

You may well be right - and I think we should be able to see waning interest in shrinking hits on Property-related websites.

 

I did a google search, and found that two years ago, property journalist Graham Norwood did an article on...

 

THE TOP 50 UK PROPERTY WEBSITES

 

Sites for buyers and sellers in britain

 

Every estate agency has its own site but you can see them aggregated at portals such as www.rightmove.co.uk, the UK's largest, boasting details from 20,000 agent's offices. The most popular for homes priced £500,000 or more is www.primelocation.com.

 

www.periodproperty.co.uk is, as you can imagine, the place to find a thatched, listed or historic home, while www.propertyauctions.com lists dates and reserve prices on upcoming auctions plus tips for those bidding for the first time.

 

www.firstrungnow.com targets first-time buyers and has information on low cost properties for sale. Young buyers wanting to pool resources can find a co-buyer on www.sharedspaces.co.uk or www.co-buywithme.co.uk.

. . .

Property anoraks can vent their spleen at www.housepricecrash.co.uk and www.globalhousepricecrash.com, both arguing for serious price falls. They have a cultish tone and are fierce rivals: one blogger on the global site advises contributors to the other to "get out of that swamp and leave the bigots to it". The Register of Estate Agents on www.roea.co.uk allows you to submit your own experiences of buying and selling, and rank any estate agent you deal with. You can also see how other agents are ranked before you instruct them.

 

Perhaps the most informed property enthusiast's website is www.theratandmouse.co.uk, a highly readable mix of fact and irony. It culls papers and magazines twice daily for property gossip, whether it is the latest legal action against a dodgy estate agent or the scoop on Bruce Willis buying in Marylebone.

 

Sites That Are... Strange

 

Some may think the £70 million house and £95,000 parking space on Rightmove are jokes in themselves but they are not. www.ralphbending.com is the site we wish every estate agent would write. He describes a flat as "once dirty, now nice" and says a cottage for sale "could be good or even great with a stiff brush up and a tin of Vim." The site is for real but it's only for homes on sale around Glastonbury. For a more cynical read, try www.agentsdiary.blogspot.com - it's a disillusioned agent's whinge.

 

 

/more: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/336153...the-clicks.html

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It would be useful to know how much of the business profit is from home sales advertising and how much is rental advertising.

Home sales, especially new home sales, is where the big money is.

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I was thinking the same thing as I posted those charts.

Before shorting RMV, I would want to have a better understanding of what caused the "pop" up.

 

...from the HPC clone...

 

Actually, if you look carefully at the chart on RMV hits, you will see that they have slid to below the uptrend line, and this may signal that a bigger slide is underway, as Rightmove's own index for Greater London is showing:

 

001nvlf.jpg

 

On "another website": we are discussing whether or not RMV is a good short here.

 

The move up in the RMV share price looks like a major confirmation

 

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/compan...ings-20497.html

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http://trends.google...ate=allinterest has been falling since April 2007, and is due the autumn winter drop.Can you use alexa to find proof of an increase in traffic to social housing websites/

Good tip.

This term's trend is in harmony with the trends seen in Website traffic rankings

zzzzc.png

 

Different trends : RED="flat for rent" / BLUE="house price index"

zzzzu.png

 

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Rightmove Posts a Sharp Rise in First Half Earnings

Friday, August 27, 2010

Rightmove (LON:RMV) posted a 40 per cent rise in earnings as the cost-conscious estate agents continued to move business onto its website.

 

Underlying operating profits were £27.9 million in the first half as revenues increased 26 per cent to £42.3 million.

 

It is sitting on a cash pile of almost £23 million after selling its holiday letting business, which has allowed the company to resume its share buyback programme and pay a plump dividend of 5p a share, up 67 per cent on the year earlier.

Proactiveinvestors recommends

NetPlay TV: the making of a highly profitable multimedia gambling businessArsenal Mania acquisition ups the ante for Play LA IncOrosur Mining looks to Chile and Arenal DeepsTraffic on the Rightmove site rose 22 percent to 3.9 billion page impressions. The company said trading in July and August was in line with the first half, giving it confidence that revenue would continue to rise, despite an uncertain outlook for the housing market.

 

"We do not believe that such an outlook need be materially affected by flat or modest falls in house prices, provided that transaction volumes do not take a sharp downward turn and cause our customers to cease trading," Rightmove said.

 

The number of advertisers rose 7 per cent to 17,993 in the six months to the end of June, while spend per advertiser advanced 20 per cent to £365 a month.

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LONDON WEAK in Hometrack's survey

 

September’s price declines are “part of an ongoing re- pricing process which began six months ago in early spring, and which is set to stretch well into 2011,” Richard Donnell, Hometrack’s director of research, said in the statement. “Growing concerns over the economic outlook and public-spending cuts are weighing heavily on would-be purchasers.”

 

Prices rose in September by 1 percent from a year earlier, the least in seven months, Hometrack said. Demand for homes, measured by the change in new buyers registering with real- estate agents, fell for a third month, dropping by 2.9 percent. Prices fell in all regions for the first time since April 2009.

 

London Prices

 

The decline in demand has been strongest in southern England, which experienced the largest price drops in the last three months. Prices fell 1.1 percent in London and 1 percent in southeast England in that time, Hometrack said.

 

/more: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-26/u...track-says.html

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LONDON WEAK in Hometrack's survey

 

September’s price declines are “part of an ongoing re- pricing process which began six months ago in early spring, and which is set to stretch well into 2011,” Richard Donnell, Hometrack’s director of research, said in the statement. “Growing concerns over the economic outlook and public-spending cuts are weighing heavily on would-be purchasers.”

 

Prices rose in September by 1 percent from a year earlier, the least in seven months, Hometrack said. Demand for homes, measured by the change in new buyers registering with real- estate agents, fell for a third month, dropping by 2.9 percent. Prices fell in all regions for the first time since April 2009.

 

London Prices

 

The decline in demand has been strongest in southern England, which experienced the largest price drops in the last three months. Prices fell 1.1 percent in London and 1 percent in southeast England in that time, Hometrack said.

 

/more: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-26/u...track-says.html

 

 

Don't know if anyone else has been noticing sterling getting ever so slightly stronger in recent months but that's bound to have an effect on international buyers looking at London property.

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Don't know if anyone else has been noticing sterling getting ever so slightly stronger in recent months but that's bound to have an effect on international buyers looking at London property.

Very possibly.

One of our friends here in HK is thinking about selling 1-2 of his properties to "cash the currency gain".

I hope he moves quickly.

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Judging by the conversations I heard on the train to the football last night, we still have quite some way to go before the UK obsession with property starts to wane.

Okay.

Say more, if some noteworthy comments were made.

It is interesting to see how people are reacting to the "biggest falls in UK property in 18 months" as Hometrack reported

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It was nothing earth shattering just more of what has been said in the past. Current falls maketh a great buying opportunity, can't go wrong with property, they won't fall much further, expecting a repeat of the 08-09 falls then 'recovery'. Government won't let it happen and will step in with QE. The people flaunting this misguided opinion imho won't change their tune until they or someone they know is seriously burned by leveraged property 'bargains' and suffers financial pain and hardship as a result, frustratingly for the last few years they have been right as they see it.

 

Okay.

Say more, if some noteworthy comments were made.

It is interesting to see how people are reacting to the "biggest falls in UK property in 18 months" as Hometrack reported

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... won't change their tune until they or someone they know is seriously burned by leveraged property 'bargains' and suffers financial pain and hardship as a result, frustratingly for the last few years they have been right as they see it.

Yes, you are probably right.

I habitual attitude developed over many years will take years to change.

 

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Rightmove is the only site most people look at.

Back to Mr Calculus's post - how do you bet / invest against Rightmove?

It may not be a great short since it has been reporting rising earnings as people seek cheaper ways to transact.

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It does appear from this article that the landholding companies have their eye on the agricultural value of the property rather than the potential to build houses. It would be a shame to build on here. Although British coal are doing their best in the next property

 

http://www.smithsgore.co.uk/property-for-s...r-hulton-536331

 

713 acres of agricultural land and properties let on various tenancies, attractive park, woodland and lakes, 7 residential properties, commercial tenancies, ground rents.

In all about 1000 acres with a total rental income of £150,000 per annum.

 

 

http://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/news/842335...ty_firm/?ref=mr

 

A FAMILY link stretching back more than 1,000 years has been broken with the sale of the Hulton estate to a land and property company.

The 1,000 acre estate has been in the hands of the Hulton family since 1167 though it is believed their links with the site stretch back to 989.

Agents Smiths Gore advertised the site as suitable for housing development or leisure facilities, subject to planning permission.

The sprawling estate, between Chequerbent, Over Hulton and Atherton, has been bought for an undisclosed sum by The Peel Group, an infrastructure, transport and real estate investment company.

Louise Morrissey, The Peel Group director of land and planning said: “Hulton Park is a fantastic property with a lot of history which we believe strengthens and compliments our existing agricultural portfolio.

Farmers Mark and Maria Partington, who have four years left on their lease at Home Farm, said: “We’ve not a clue what they want to do with it, we haven’t even been officially told yet. It’ll bring in jobs. We don’t think they’ll build houses."
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Rightmove is the only site most people look at.

 

Back to Mr Calculus's post - how do you bet / invest against Rightmove?

 

You could try a spreadbetting firm but the spreads (and prices) make for an inefficient trade - probably the best way would be to buy long dated put options, you'd need to open an account with a broker

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IG Index used to run a market on Halifax Index.

 

I wonder where the forward prices are now?

 

In Q1- 2009, you could have made a huge profit by going long

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