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How will this Fairy Tale end?  Conversation with a Property Agent

> Excerpt from a New thread:CONVERSATIONS with Property Agents

" I am always amazed by people here investing in real estates with the glossy brochure of the developer & developer’s agent fairy tale as only reference." - AlexHK, on previous page

I have a new habit. Covering numbers with my hand, when someone shows me crazy numbers. (see Conversation, below.)

Occasionally, I still allow myself to be drawn into a showroom to have a chat with one of the young agents who passes out brochures.

This is partly to keep abreast of prices, partly to see if anything is new in the showroom, and partly to see if there might actually be something worth buying.

Once you have had a look around the showroom, the agent(s) will typically run a spreadsheet, showing the price of the unit, and the monthly payments

It might look something like this:


In summary, the developer in this case is selling a 26.04 sqm unit for Total price of P 7.22 million.
That's P 277.3k per sqm. This price is 41% above the Makati Prime price index for Q2.2018 of 195,950.
When I see this sort of (expensive) product on offer, I might have a conversation along the following lines:

Me: That's pretty expensive, it is well over the prices I am seeing for average Makati Properties now*
PA: (Property Agent) That's because it will be completed in 202?, and prices will be a lot higher then.
Me: How do you know that?
PA: Prices always go up. They have risen every year since I have been in the business. They should rise 10-15 p.a.
Me: (with a chuckle.) Maybe you are too young. Do you know what happened in 2000-2004?
PA: No.  But even if they go down, they will go up again, since costs are rising. BTW, you pay only 15% over
the next 4 years, that is a long time.  Prices can drop and go back up again.  Shall I explain the payments?.
The payments are really Low, only about P22,500 a month. That's just US500. Most people can afford that.
And there's no interest for you to pay. Every payment reduces your balance due.
Me: (chuckling)  You want me to pay interest before you even hand the unit over?  That's crazy.
No one is going to pay interest on a property where the developer is still building the property.

PA: Our developer pays interest on the bank loans he takes to build the property.
Me: Sure, but you price the financing cost into the Total Price you charge for the property, right?
PA: We do, sir. But this payment is really, really Low. Only 15% paid over 47 months.  And you can make money
on the whole property, including the 85% you have not paid for.
Me: (Here's my new tactic - I put my hand over the spreadsheet and say):
The Agents all want to talk about payment structures. But that is not what I want to talk about.
BTW, I might pay cash, if the cash discount is big enough.
(The agent registers surprise since he hears this rarely; my hand might still beover the paper.) He is my real concern:
What will the rent be in 202?, when I get the Key?  That's what I want to know. What is MY return going to be
over all the years I own the property.
PA: (Shocked, since no one ever asked this question of him before.)  The rent should be higher than today, sir.

Me: Do you know what yields are today? (agent shakes his head.) About 5 -6% Gross Yield, if you are lucky.
PA: But rents will rise, sir. They rise every year.
Me: No, they don't.  They fell in 2000-2004, and they fell again for luxury flats over the past two years.
PA: Rents are being pushed higher by all the chinese tenants looking for property
Me: Maybe that's true right now.  But we cannot be sure they will keep coming. And some areas of Manila
have very big supply.  For instance, Supply of completed flats in the Manila Bay area will double over about 3 years
PA: You are the first one to tell me that.  My clients say it is easy to get a tenant now, sir.
Me: Let;s hope that continues.  But here is the real problem: YIELDS are Down, they are only about 2/3rds what they
were just a few years ago.  And interest rates are starting to rise. My target is to get a Gross Yield of 8-10% pa.
What are you projecting for this property?
PA: I don't know, sir, but it should be easy to rent. It is a convenient location.

Me: Can you run some numbers for me. (He/she will look confused, as if uncertain what yield is.)
That's okay, I will do it.  Let's use P1,000 psm.  That might be reasonable now, with the chinese demand.
That would be P26,000 per month. Are you okay with that?  Let me use P25,000 per annum, since
the numbers are easier to do in my head.  (PA is visibly uneasy.) In a year of 12 months rent, you will get
P300,000 per annum.  On a P7.2 Million price that's only about 4.2% per annum.  That is just half,
or less than half my target return.
PA: (disappointed) Rents will rise, sir, but you may not get that here.
Me: Here's the thing, when I bought my other Condos 3-4 years ago, I ran numbers and it really looked
like I might get those target returns.  But market yields on new properties are only about half today
what they were back then.  The numbers just do not work for me at all now.
PA: That's okay, sir.  Most of my clients do not look at it that way.  They but a property if they like it,
and if they can afford it.
Me: Okay.  So, I will wish you good luck with the properties you have for sale. Thanks for your time.

===== * updated to Q2.2018


CONDO Prices -         Q2.2018 ... (chart w/o Yield)
P 195,950 psm :             + 5.4%
vs. Rents P810 psm      + 0.6%
vs. Gen'l Price Inflation + 1.1%

Yr.- Qtr : CondoPsm +Chg: Rent, +Chg: Yield : Index, +Chg.%:
2017.Q4 :  174,706, +4.6% : 800, - 0.0% : 5.49% : 113.1, +0.9% :
>Q1, Old :  180,400, +3.3% : 805, +0.6% : 5.35% : 115.5, +2.1% :
2018.Q1 :  185,825, +6.4% : 805, +0.6% : 5.20% : 115.5, +2.1% :
2018.Q2 :  195,950, +5.4% : 810, +0.6% : 4.96% : 116.8, +1.1% :

The Colliers report changed the data for Q1, and so I changed my Condo price too, from 180,400, to 185,825 psm for Q1.2018. That is up 6.45% for the quarter, instead of 3.3% - roughly twice as much a rise.  These big price rises are pushing yields down, since rents are hardly rising.

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COMING SUPPLY SHOCK... esp. at Manila Bay, looks less scary than 1 year ago


THIS needs updating - but looks scary for Manila Bay / MOA area

Note the big decline from the  212% ! increase... to just +78%.

Is the scary jump in Supply behind us??

(from the Q2 Report):

For the first six months of the year, only about 1,700
units were completed. From about 10,100 units initially
scheduled to be completed for 2018, Colliers now sees
around 9,000 new units being delivered for 2018. The
downward revision is primarily due to construction delays
in a number of projects in Fort Bonifacio and Ortigas
Center. We see the delivery of about 1,100 units
originally intended to be completed in 3Q and 4Q2018
being pushed back to the first half of 2019. We believe
that this downward adjustment in supply is positive for
the Manila residential sector in general...
. . . Fort Bonifacio will likely
account for
40% of the
new supply during the three
-year period
, while the Bay Area
will probably
account for
% o
the new supply. From
16,600 condominium units in 2017, the
Manila Bay Area
about 29,500 units by 2021, a 78
increase. The pa
ce of condominium development
the speed of office constructio

SUPPLY FORECAST (Update compared with end-2016)

Q2-2018 Data =======

========= : End'16 : End'17 : -2018 : -2019 : -2020 : '18-20 : End'20 : % chg.
Ft.Bonifacio 24,200 : 27,400 : 3,100 : 5,800 : 2,700 : 11,600 : 39,000 : +42.3%
Makati CBD: 22,000 : 24,900 : 0,710 : 2,100 : 0,700 : 03,510 : 28,410 : +14.1%
Rise/Air Res: 00,000 : 0,000 : 0,000 : 0,000 : 6,400 : 06,400 : 06,400 :
Ortigas Ctr. : 16,200 : 17,500 : 1,300 : 0,200 : 0,600 : 02,100 : 19,600 : +12.0%
Manila Bay : 08,800 : 16,600 : 4,000 : 6,200 : 2,700 : 12,900 : 29,500 : + 77.7%
Rockwell Ctr: 04,100 : 4,200 : 0,350 : 0,500 : 0,300 : 01,150 : 05,350 : +27.4%
Other Areas : 00,000 :
>> TOTAL-- : 91,100: 107,100 :  9,120: 15,900 : 7,200 : 32,220: 139,320 : +30.1%

/ 2 /
OLD DATA =======

========= : End'16 : -2017 : -2018 : -2019 : -2020 : '17-20 : End'20 : % chg.
Ft.Bonifacio 24,200 : 4,100 : 8,200 : 3,000 : 0,000 : 15,300 : 37,500 : +63.2%
Makati CBD: 22,000 : 3,500 : 1,800 : 0,500 : 0,300 : 06,100 : 28,100 : +27.7%
Rise/Air Res: 00,000 : 0,000 : 0,000 : 0,000 : 6,400 : 06,400 : 06,400 : Infin.
Ortigas Ctr. : 16,200 : 1,400 ; 0,700 : 0,500 : 0,600 : 03,200 : 19,800 : +19.8%
Manila Bay : 08,800 : 5,500 : 8,500 : 2,600 : 2,100 : 18,700 : 27,500 : +212% !!
Rockwell Ctr: 04,100 : 0,000 : 0,500 : 0,700 : 0,000 : 01,200 : 05,300 : +29.3%
Other Areas : 00,000 :
>> TOTAL-- : 91,100: 16100: 21300 : 8,100 : 3,100 : 00,000: 140,100 : +53.8%

OLD DATA =======

========= : End'16 : -2017 : -2018 : -2019 : -2020 : '17-20 : End'20 : % chg.
Ft.Bonifacio 24,200 : 4,100 : 8,200 : 3,000 : 0,000 : 15,300 : 37,500 : +63.2%
Makati CBD: 22,000 : 3,500 : 1,800 : 0,500 : 0,300 : 06,100 : 28,100 : +27.7%
Rise/Air Res: 00,000 : 0,000 : 0,000 : 0,000 : 6,400 : 06,400 : 06,400 : Infin.
Ortigas Ctr. : 16,200 : 1,400 ; 0,700 : 0,500 : 0,600 : 03,200 : 19,800 : +19.8%
Manila Bay : 08,800 : 5,500 : 8,500 : 2,600 : 2,100 : 18,700 : 27,500 : +212% !!
Rockwell Ctr: 04,100 : 0,000 : 0,500 : 0,700 : 0,000 : 01,200 : 05,300 : +29.3%
Other Areas : 00,000 :
>> TOTAL-- : 91,100: 16100: 21300 : 8,100 : 3,100 : 00,000: 140,100 : +53.8%

Mak+Rise/Air: 22,000 : 3,500 : 1,800 : 0,500 : 6,700 : 12,500 : 34,500 : +56.8%

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TEXT Comment

After the Singapore Dollar, the Philippine Peso could be next to witness gains against the US Dollar. This is because we have an evening star bearish reversal formation at the most recent peak in USD/PHP. In addition, negative RSI divergence warns upside momentum is ebbing. However, do note that the rising trend line from August still holds. A descent through it exposes horizontal support at 53.74. Meanwhile a resumption of the dominant uptrend has USD/PHP eying 54.49 next.

USD/PHP Daily Chart : monthly : weekly :


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Seven percent inflation in the Philippines could be around the corner.


  • Rice loss at 558,441 metric tons as storm came during harvest
  • Central bank has pledged strong action at meeting next week

More than half a million metric tons of paddy rice were wiped out by Super Typhoon Mangkhut last weekend, adding pressure to rice prices which are already at a record. Michael Enriquez, chief investment officer at Sun Life of Canada Philippines Inc., forecast inflation of as high as 7 percent in September, from 6.4 percent last month, which was the fastest pace since 2009.

“There’s a strong possibility inflation will hit that high,” Enriquez said. “Even before the storm, prices have been moving higher, especially for rice and oil.”

The typhoon couldn’t have come at a worse time for the Philippines, with soaring inflation and a currency slump of more than 7 percent against the dollar this year prompting the central bank to hike interest rates by 100 basis points since May.

. . . ING Groep NV warned that rice prices, which have risen more than 20 percent this year, will soar even more. Inflation may be higher than 6.5 percent in September, Nicholas Mapa, senior economist said in a note Wednesday. The September data is scheduled to be released Oct. 5.

Government officials are rushing to implement measures which include easing importation of rice and sugar, but the impact on prices may only start after October, Sun Life’s Enriquez said.

Inflation will peak this quarter and start easing in the next few months, central bank Deputy Governor Diwa Guinigundo said this week. Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas has pledged to deliver strong action at its Sept. 27 policy meeting.

> https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-20/sun-life-sees-7-inflation-in-the-philippines-in-wake-of-typhoon

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Excerpts - added by DrB:

The central bank’s residential real estate price index (RREPI) rose by 4.8 percent to 117.2 in the second quarter from 111.8 in the same quarter last year.

The BSP said the average price of townhouses booked a double-digit increase of 13.3 percent, followed by condominium units with 9.1 percent and single-detached housing units with 0.6 percent.

Costs to acquire homes grew faster at 5.1 percent in the National Capital Region (NCR) as higher growth in prices of condominium units and townhouses offset the decline in prices of single-detached houses and duplexes.

. . . In the second quarter, the BSP said about seven in 10 or 77.1 percent residential real estate loans were intended for the purchase of new housing units.

By type of housing unit, 46.1 percent of residential property loans were for the acquisition of condominium units, followed by single-detached units with 45.6 percent and townhouses with 7.8 percent.

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PESO - PHP Price History

PHP : 11 Sep.2018 onwards : update : 10d / Last: PHP 54.08


PHP : 2008-2017 (ends Feb.2018, because of data glinch, in middle of that month)


PHP: 2000-2016


The Philippine peso, from 1950 to 2009

A 60-year history of the Philippine peso packed into one happy graph:

Peso_exchange.pngWhat we have here is a chart showing the historical exchange rate of the Philippine Peso against the US Dollar from 1950 to 2009. (Data from 1950 to 1997 from Penn World Tables; Data from 1997 onwards from Oanda, using exchange rates on January 1 of each year)

It's just really weird that I haven't seen a graph like this available anywhere else on the internet, because there's so much that can be learned from it. Look at how all the significant movements in the graph can be traced to events in Philippine history (which is, looking back at it, composed almost entirely of bad news):
  • 1961: President Diosdado Macapagal allows the peso to float on the free currency exchange market, unpegging it from the US dollar to stimulate economic development. Its value sinks from P2 to P3.7 to the dollar.
  • 1970: I can only assume this is due to the First Quarter Storm, where a series of heavy demonstrations and protests and marches take their toll on the country. The value of the peso slips from P4 to P6 to the dollar.
  • 1983: Ninoy Aquino assassinated, and Marcos' shit hits the fan. The country rapidly deteriorates, culminating in the EDSA Revolution. Value of the peso dives from P8 to 20 to the dollar over a few years.
  • 1989: A series of ugly coup attempts threatens the Aquino administration, including a bloodbath in January 1989. Peso descends from P21 to P27 to the dollar over two years.
  • 1997: The Asian Financial Crisis occurs, and I can't understand it no matter how many times I check Wikipedia, but the peso crashes from P26 to P41 to the dollar in a single frickin' year.
  • 2000: Economic mismanagement and political instability during the Estrada administration, plus charges or corruption leading to an impeachment trial. Peso nosedives from P40 to P50 to the dollar.
And finally there's 2005 to the present, the only time in history that the Philippine peso has significantly strengthened in value, albeit with a sharp rebound in 2008. I'm at a loss to attribute this to any single event, but history has shown that movements of that scale do not happen without a reason.
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JLL 3Q 2018 Property Market Overview is online.

+ On page 15 of the report I notice that there will be a huge increase in new supply in PASAY during 4Q2018 and the whole year of 2019,

+ Taguig city will see a moderate increase during 4Q2018 and a rather large increase in 2019.

+BIG SURPRISE. MAKATI will have the biggest supply increase in 2020. That probably has something to do with the RISE and AIR residences

In 2020 the supply increase in MAKATI will be twice that of PASAY+TAGUIG combined.


Their forecast is for 76,800 new residential units to hit the market FROM 4Q2018 until the end of 2020, of which 23pct will be for MAKATI and 23pct for PASAY city so 17,600 new units will be added in each of both districts 4Q2018 until end of 2020.


In terms of rents, surprise here, the median rent is already higher in PASAY city than in MAKATI city. The rent varies between PHP1,100 to PHP1,700 per square meter in PASAY, so the average is PHP1,400 while the rent varies between PHP510 and PHP1900 per square meter in MAKATI district, so the average is PHP1,200. For taguig city the average rent varies between PHP600 and PHP1500, so average PHP1,050.


Yes that is what I noticed also. Taguig and BGC are not popular with the Chinese, Chinese like the sea and the area of Makati that borders PASAY, (chino roces). Even buildings like San Lorenzo Place on Chino Roces command higher rents than similar Avida style buildings in BGC. BGC is really having a hard time getting good rents. I see the same thing on rentpad. The asking rents for buildings in BGC are too low, compared to buildings in PASAY/MAKATI. For the moment, BGC is the trainwreck. And they're launching new towers costing PHP300K + per sq meters.


""IN 3Q2018 rental rates in PASAY CITY move up, ranking second to MAKATI city, primarily due to employees of Chinese online gaming companies. Landlords are asking higher rates due to the willingness of Chinese companies to pay at initial asking rates to house their employees"


It now remains to be seen how the big supply increase will be absorbed by the market. According to some commentators thousands of condos are needed in the bay area to satisfy the new demand. Everything will -primarily -  depend on the growth of online gaming in China.

And another warning for MAKATI. Big supply increase is coming in 2020. So the pain will be felt everywhere. BGC rental rates are low but except for a little spike in 2019 relatively little new supply is coming available. Pasay CITY will experience a massive supply increase starting now for 5 quarters, while MAKATI will be hit in 2020.









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BIG SURPRISE. MAKATI will have the biggest supply increase in 2020. That probably has something to do with the RISE and AIR residences

In 2020 the supply increase in MAKATI will be twice that of PASAY+TAGUIG combined.


No problem.

There are over 20,000 jobs coming in three new Office Towers nearby ++ AFT is coming in 2 years

I am estimating 6.400 units at Rise/Air and maybe just 10-12,000 beds

P 1,400 psm for Pasay? Really?

That is frankly NOT EASY TO BELIEVE for me (no one I know wud live there)

"Chinese are accepting Asking prices"

Hmm. if supply nearly doubles in 2-3yrs, I reckon asking prices will come down

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Your reasoning looks faulty to me. BGC has also welcomed many multinationals and large corporations setting up their new HQ in BGC. The likes of GOOGLE, You tube, Megaworld, DB, Citibank, HSBC and so many others. However, the expected "uptick" in rental prices did not materialize as of today. Why would there be an "uptick" in prices when AFT is completed? It is exactly the same thing that will happen in the "HOT AIR" district of Makati. Why would the outcome be different this time??? Most of the tenants in those buildings will pay the locals just a very small salary. It won't be enough to break the downward spiral in rental prices.


The reality is that it is the Chinese who pay and sometimes over pay, and their favorite spot remains the Bay Area. Some of them are now even contemplating setting up factories in PH to avoid the US-China trade sanctions/tariffs.


In other words, Makati can become another "pearl harbour". When all these flats will be completed in 2020, it will be a total devastation for existing landlords. Better sell now while the market still "appears to be " reasonably strong.

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"Why would there be an "uptick" in prices when AFT is completed?"


AFT/ Alveo Financial Tower is not going to be completed for 2-3 years.  That is FUTURE employees.  But the impact NOW is coming from Offices completing now, at the end of 2018.

People are moving into Citygate 1 & Citygate 2, right now across the street from where  I am working today.  My guess is, maybe 15,000 new jobs in those two towers. In addition, they will start moving into Nex Tower within this year, maybe 10,000 people there, just 3-4 minutes walk from Citygate.  Rise & Air were partly planned to capture these new expected tenants, but they are not ready yet.  I doubt many will have moved in before the middle of 2019. Meantime, rental supply in Makati CBD (and nearby) is tight, tight, tight, as friends who are looking to rent are telling me.  Almost impossible to find anything decent below P18-20,000 within an easy walk. and the "minimum" rents are rising, especially for smaller flats.  (The "China Invasion" in Techzone and PB Com, etc, with some double and triple shifting has been a big factor.)

By contrast, BGC has seen a rise in Office Completions, together with a massive rise in Residential Condo completions in the Fort & McKinley area - as I have previously documented.  The Condos are running ahead of the Office jobs in BGC.  Hence the softness in rents. 

"it is the Chinese who pay and sometimes over pay, and their favorite spot remains the Bay Area"

A favorite spot?  Perhaps because they have jobs there, in double and triple shifting companies that operate with changing shift times, so they have to live nearby.


Nex Tower on Ayala Avenue

There are now many many Chinese who seem to prefer Makati (based on the number of Chinese I see in my building, in the 7-11's, and in the Cafes) perhaps because they work in a nearby Office Tower, like PBcom, Techzone, or the forthcoming Nex Tower

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3 property research companies - Colliers, JLL and Knight Santos Frank - and three completely different reports.

As usual, KSF is the most bullish amongst all 3. And JLL sees a huge supply increase in Makati in 2020 which Colliers doesn't report.

What I find strange in Colliers report is that they don't add the new AIR RES + RISE MAK units in the 2020 new units list for Makati

(Maybe because they're not located in Salceldo or Legaspi village). (and thus not in Makati CBD)

(Or maybe they have then been given money by their developers friends not report it to not cause a panic amongst property investors???)

(Maybe not reporting future events can be profitable?)


And then the real shocker: BGC vacancy rate going from 15pct to 16pct.

The lower band of rental rates in BGC dropped sharply. From PHP620 per square meter to PHP530 per square meter. That is down 15pct.

And a 1pct decline in rental rates for Makati.

In terms of rental income, BGC is the first train wreck. Avida is the lower band supplier of buildings in BGC and investors see their projected income decline. It is the same what I see based on data from rentpad from Avida 34th street and Avida Verte. 

Rental rates are plainly awful. Horrific. I will try to highlight that in the data section at a later point in time but it doesn't look good.







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Thanks for those comments, ECB.

I think you are exactly right on Rise + Air.   It has been obvious for sometime that Colliers was ignoring these two in compiling its figures for the Makati CBP.  Without them, the figures look very bullish, and very tight.  With the extra 6,400 flats in the data, it looks less bullish.  But i think the will be easily absorbed thanks to:

A 30 storey and a 40 storey Tower at CityGate: 1 & 2.

Plus a 40-something building called NEX Tower.

Tenants have just begun moving in a Citygate, and they should start moving into NEX before year-end.

I expect maybe 20,000+ jobs in these buildings, and that is pretty good match for the 10,000+ beds (my guess) at Rise & Air, with 6,400 units in total.

Rental rates in Makati are tight for studios and 1BR units.  But Colliers focuses on 3BR units favored by well-paid locals and expats.  Maybe the completion of Garden Terraces, etc is helping to dampen own rents for larger units

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HIGHER SALARIES could help push up Rents in some areas (Makati maybe? BGC?)

Mid-level professionals expect up to 60% higher pay

Changing jobs could bring salary rises of 20% to 60%, where there is high demand

Key areas:

+ People with over 10 years experience, due to scarcity of top professionals

+ In banking & finance, people who are more than numbers crunchers, with soft skills;

With new BSP regulations, compliance and risk management skills

+ Hardest to recruit are technology professionals. Some with key skills are getting 60% rises

Companies are said to be making more investment in training mid-level professionals

> https://www.pressreader.com/philippines/the-philippine-star/20181210/282325386054923

2018 Salary Survey : > https://www.robertwalters.com/content/dam/robert-walters/global/files/salary-survey/salary-survey-2018-southeast-asia-greater-china.pdf

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Colliers 3RD Q Report was issued 2-3 weeks ago

Yr.- Qtr : CondoPsm +Chg: Rent, +Chg: Yield : Index, +Chg.%:
2017.Q4 :  174,706, +4.6% : 800, - 0.0% : 5.49% : 113.1, +0.9% :
>Q1, Old :  180,400, +3.3% : 805, +0.6% : 5.35% : 115.5, +2.1% :
2018.Q1 :  185,825, +6.4% : 805, +0.6% : 5.20% : 115.5, +2.1% :
2018.Q2 :  195,950, +5.4% : 810, +0.6% : 4.96% : 116.8, +1.1% ::
2018.Q3 :  195,950, +5.4% : 810, +0.6% : 4.96% : 11?.? , +?.?% : (updating)


4Q /2017 : 174.7k : 5.50%: 0,800 : - 1.11 %: - 4.42% / 0,530 - 1,070 / 0,620 - 1,000 / 0,730 - 1,020 :
1Q /2018 : 185.8k : 5.35% 0,805: +0.63%: - 2.19% / 0,5 ??  - 1,??0 / 0,6 ?? - 1,??0 / 0,7 ?? - 1,??0 :
2Q /2018 : 195.9k : 5.20% 0,810: +0. ??%: - 0. ??% / 0,5 ??  - 1,??0 / 0,6 ?? - 1,??0 / 0,7 ?? - 1,??0 : ?
1Q /2018 : 203.3k : 4.83% 0,819: +0. ??%: - 0. ??% / 0,5 ??  - 1,??0 / 0,6 ?? - 1,??0 / 0,7 ?? - 1,??0 : ?

Qtr /Year : Mak-Mid.Yield : Rent : QonQtr : YronYr / Lo- Makati-H / L-Bonfacio-H / L-Rockw- H /
Makati Yield 3br? : 1Q/ 2018 : 0,805 x12 = 9,660 / 180.400: 5.35% Yield (prev. 5.50%)
Note: Compare with the Yield on a Office: Premier : ??? (9.14%) : Grade-A : ??? (10.03%)

1Q /2018 : 185,800e +?. ??% : + ??. ? % : 111,700- 260.0k* : 114,000 - 244,400 : 200,400 - 247,300 : *286.4k x90% adj.
2Q /2018 : 195,950e +?. ??% : + ??. ? % : 121,000- 270.9k* : 118,000 - 252,000 : 199,000 - 246,000 : *301.0k x90% adj.
3Q /2018 : 203,350e +?. ??% : + ??. ? % : 125,000- 281.7k* : 124,000 - 264,000 : 208,000 - 250,000 : *313.0k x90% adj.
Qtr / Yr. : Mak-Mid. QonQtr : Yr.onYr. / Low - Makati - H / Low -Bonfacio- H / Low -Rockwell- H / /

> source: http://www.colliers.com/-/media/files/marketing reports/colliers-manila-residential-3q18.pdf?la=en-GB

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Philippines has fallen to #99, in a Tie with Thailand - in the Global Corruption rankings.

#1: Denmark, #2: NZ, #3: tied: Singapore, Finland, Sweden, Switzerland
#9; tied: Canada, Lux.; #11:, Germany, UK; #13: Australia; #14; Austria; HK, Iceland
#178: tied: South Sudan, Syria; #180: Somalia

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OFFICES: Hot & Not

Interesting contrast in Office VACANCIES... Bay Area = 0.4%!  Makati = 1%.  BGC= 7%. 

Seems that our mainland Chinese friends have chosen Manila bay over BGC is supply was growing in both areas at a rapidly clip, 

Close to casinos (for fun), and the airport (for an easy getaway?)

+ "BGC office space rentals too expensive? heard they are also occupying office space in Alabang and Cebu"

Probably it is the cost. but rents were up 19% for Manila Bay offices last year.  Another issue is the difficulty in getting in and out of BGC. 

Can take 1 1/2 hours from BGc to Makati at rush hour


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Philippines inflation easing > Rates may come down (if trend persists)

3 months in a row of declines. Lower than 4.5% median estimate.

Core inflation, stripping out food and energy was 4.4%, vs. Dec.'s 4.7%, and Jan.2018's 2.6%

Monthly Headline inflation:

Mo. : 2016: 2017: 2018: 2019:
J'18 : 1.3%: 2.7%: 3.4%: 4.4% :
Feb : 0.9%: 3.3%: 3.8%:
Mar : 1.1%: 3.4%: 4.3%:
Apr. : 1.1%: 3.4%: 4.5%:
May : 1.6%: 3.1%: 4.6%:
Jun. : 1.9%: 2.7%: 5.2%:
July : 1.9%: 2.8%: 5.7%:
Aug : 1.8%: 3.1%: 6.4%:
Sep : 2.3%: 3.4%: 6.7%:
Oct : 2.3%: 3.5%: 6.7%:
Nov : 2.5%: 3.5%: 6.0%:
Dec : 2.6%: 3.6%: 5.1%:
Ave.: 2.3%: 3.2%: 5.2%:
Index <-- OLD —> <--- NEW --->
=== 2016 : 2017 : 2018 : 2019 :
q1: 0.28%: 1.11% : 0.96%:
q2: 0.52%: 0.49%: 1.19%:
q3: 0.68%: 0.68%: 1.57%:
q4: 0.82%: 0.88%: 1.48%:

Yr: 2.30%: 3.16%: 5.20%

q1: 1.01%: 3.13%: 3.83%:
q2: 1.53%: 3.10%: 4.77%:
q3: 2.03%: 3.10%: 6.27%:
q4: 2.47%: 3.16%: 5.93%:%:


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  • 4 weeks later...
On 2/8/2019 at 11:18 PM, Euro Chocozone Buyer said:

https://www.colliers.com/-/media/files/colliers quarterly manila q4 2018 residential.pdf?la=en-gb

Colliers is revising its forecast of condominium price increase from 2019 to 2021 upward to 5pct yearly from the previous 3pct.


Haha, Things get really risky when everyone starts thinking like that.

But THIS might help to maintain Metro Manila property prices, and especially in Quezon City:


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  • 1 month later...



Based on the chart below, technical analysis points to the peso ranging between 51.50 and 53.50. A break below 51.50, however, would lead to a possible move towards the 50-level.

Read more at https://www.philstar.com/business/2019/04/22/1911383/positive-carry-steadies-philippine-peso#i1UpUhj1aSy25bpg.99

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  • 2 weeks later...
S&P upgrades Philippine credit rating to BBB+

S&P upgrades the credit rating of the Philippines to BBB+ with a positive outlook on the back of the country's strong economic growth

MANILA, Philippines (UPDATED) – The Philippines got its highest credit rating to date from Standard & Poor's Global Ratings (S&P), now at BBB+, which is two notches higher than the minimum investment grade of BBB.

S&P said on Tuesday, April 30, that the upgrade was made on the back of the country's consistent economic growth, solid fiscal accounts, and good position in the external environment.


"The rating is also supported by solid government fiscal accounts, low public indebtedness, and the economy's sound external settings. These strengths will underpin the sovereign's improved creditworthiness," S&P said.

A credit rating is an estimate of the ability of a nation to fulfill financial commitments like loans. A higher credit rating indicates low risk of a credit default. (READ: INFOGRAPHIC: What a credit rating upgrade means for Filipinos)

A higher credit rating also means that lenders will lower borrowing costs, both for government and private companies.

The debt watcher noted that it may further raise the ratings over the next two years if the government makes "significant further achievements" in fiscal reforms.

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  • 7 months later...
Guest rachelle


Giving sometime in reading blogs like this is kinda a waste of time for me as a busy person but I don’t want to outdated on such matters about <a href="https://www.primesolutionsrealty.com/">Makati properties</a>so I really admire you for your passion in writing.

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Question would be:

If you dont really invest the time, do you know what you need to know to make money consistently?


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