dietcolaaddict Posted February 23, 2010 Report Share Posted February 23, 2010 Thanks VB and Wren ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glass Posted February 25, 2010 Report Share Posted February 25, 2010 Does anyone fancy wirtting blog style articles about gold for a website I'm doing? Any ££ made on the BV referalls would be split. PM me for details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ducanlewis Posted February 25, 2010 Report Share Posted February 25, 2010 Interesting if it is correct: China to purchase half of the IMF's latest gold sale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electroweak Posted February 25, 2010 Report Share Posted February 25, 2010 Interesting if it is correct: China to purchase half of the IMF's latest gold sale China has confirmed the intention to purchase 191.3 tons of gold from the International Monetary Fund at an open auction, Finmarket news agency said. So that's all the IMF gold sale accounted for now then, if this is true.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dietcolaaddict Posted February 25, 2010 Report Share Posted February 25, 2010 Here’s something I have wanted to do for a while..... I have used online datasets to calculate UK houseprices in gold and added an RSI and MACD calculator. So G0ldfinger’s style of charts are now augmented by some technical indicators. This is the first time I have done this analysis, so while it looks good by eyeball, I need to verify the values when I get a chance. In the meantime, any thoughts on the provisional results? My observations so far : +Since 1971, UK houses valued in gold look overbought when the RSI is at 70 or above. We are now still at RSI = 70 despite a huge drop from c. 700 ounces to c. 200 ounces since 2004. More drops ahead? +MACD histogram still positive in Feb 2010, but perhaps heading back to below zero. Again may suggest further drops looking at historical patterns of this indicator on this chart in months ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ducanlewis Posted February 25, 2010 Report Share Posted February 25, 2010 The IMF is selling the same gold to China and India then. Sounds familiar India and IMF in deal to stabilise gold. May put a floor under $1100 per oz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TW11 Posted February 25, 2010 Report Share Posted February 25, 2010 Could get interesting here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted February 26, 2010 Report Share Posted February 26, 2010 +MACD histogram still positive in Feb 2010, but perhaps heading back to below zero. Again may suggest further drops looking at historical patterns of this indicator on this chart in months ahead. Good stuff. Brit houses priced in gold look to be in a corrective phase at the moment [of course, the whole chart is a correction]. I wonder how long it can defy gravity. Out of interest, is that 12, 26 and 9 weeks instead of days used to calculate MACD and signal line? Edited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electroweak Posted February 26, 2010 Report Share Posted February 26, 2010 Oh well, seems it is still just a rumour... http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE61P0QZ20100226 "China buying IMF gold" story unfounded: author BEIJING Thu Feb 25, 2010 11:24pm EST BEIJING (Reuters) - The author of an article that said China had confirmed it would buy 191.3 tons of gold from the International Monetary Fund said on Friday she didn't have official sources for her story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jinbal Posted February 26, 2010 Report Share Posted February 26, 2010 Could get interesting here An outside bar on the retest of the breakout - agree could get v. interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dietcolaaddict Posted February 26, 2010 Report Share Posted February 26, 2010 Good stuff. Brit houses priced in gold look to be in a corrective phase at the moment [of course, the whole chart is a correction]. I wonder how long it can defy gravity. Out of interest, is that 12, 26 and 9 weeks instead of days used to calculate MACD and signal line? Edited. Hi RH It's a monthly chart, so the 12,26 and 9 are months. From my textbook reading, MACD (12,26,9) refer to sampling periods and since the Nationwide is a monthly index, I cannot really do more than a monthly sampling for the ratio of house prices-to-gold (I could interpolate but I feel that would badly affect the maths behind the MACD/RSI calculations.) This is the first time I've recreated technical indicators in excel - the results look right - but am happy to hear any feedback if someone spots an error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted February 26, 2010 Report Share Posted February 26, 2010 Hi RH It's a monthly chart, so the 12,26 and 9 are months. From my textbook reading, MACD (12,26,9) refer to sampling periods and since the Nationwide is a monthly index, I cannot really do more than a monthly sampling for the ratio of house prices-to-gold (I could interpolate but I feel that would badly affect the maths behind the MACD/RSI calculations.) This is the first time I've recreated technical indicators in excel - the results look right - but am happy to hear any feedback if someone spots an error. Got it. I think the work you've done with the momentum indicators is brill. It's interesting because a lot of this decline has to be as much about a declining pound as it is a story about declining house prices. A similiar chart with the dollar would be perhaps more just a story about declining house prices. As opposed to just being liquid today, the currency you are in is of prime importance. US deflation; dollar stays strong and house prices crash. UK "hyper"-deflation; pound weakens and accordingly house prices [as priced in the local currncy] only themselves weaken instead of crashing [the value of house prices are deceptive - when priced in a local depreciating currency - but from a "third party" currency such as gold or the dollar, prices have crashed... which is what the house/ gold ratio is showing.... here real value is eroding from assets even though nominal prices seem relatively stable] Edit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Mad Hatter Posted February 26, 2010 Report Share Posted February 26, 2010 RB Contraindicator Alert. Get ready for some price action! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Schaublin Posted February 26, 2010 Report Share Posted February 26, 2010 RB Contraindicator Alert. Get ready for some price action! It is frightening how good a contrarian indicator RB is - if he had done the opposite of what he has being saying for years, he would be very wealthy by now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
50sQuiff Posted February 26, 2010 Report Share Posted February 26, 2010 It is frightening how good a contrarian indicator RB is - if he had done the opposite of what he has being saying for years, he would be very wealthy by now! He's now frantically piling into USD. This is the clearest message I've had yet to lighten up on dollars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Schaublin Posted February 26, 2010 Report Share Posted February 26, 2010 He's now frantically piling into USD. This is the clearest message I've had yet to lighten up on dollars. What a complete and utter fool that man is - jumping from one declining currency to another - and even then managing to get it wrong. I remember him years ago on HPC telling all and any that gold was overbought at 600 USD - I pity anyone who listened to his advice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Catflap Posted February 27, 2010 Report Share Posted February 27, 2010 He's now frantically piling into USD. This is the clearest message I've had yet to lighten up on dollars. Oh dear - we've just got a negative MACD crossover on the USD as well. Gold also very close to breaking it's neckline of the very bullish 'inverse head and shoulders' pattern - the dollar is only going one way and it's down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted February 27, 2010 Report Share Posted February 27, 2010 Oh dear - we've just got a negative MACD crossover on the USD as well. Gold also very close to breaking it's neckline of the very bullish 'inverse head and shoulders' pattern - the dollar is only going one way and it's down. But this isn't much to write home about. ... just looks to be a consolidation : The weekly chart looks VERY bullish: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azazel Posted February 27, 2010 Report Share Posted February 27, 2010 What a complete and utter fool that man is - jumping from one declining currency to another - and even then managing to get it wrong. I remember him years ago on HPC telling all and any that gold was overbought at 600 USD - I pity anyone who listened to his advice. Because he sounds so smart, his dopey advice sounds smart too. Im just a fool and sound like one too but my advice and decisions have proved very profitable thanks too those who said gold was the place to be in this crisis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jinbal Posted February 27, 2010 Report Share Posted February 27, 2010 But this isn't much to write home about. ... just looks to be a consolidation : The weekly chart looks VERY bullish: Sorry - disagree with both of your observations: 1) On the daily I see strong negative MACD divergergence starting from Dec 21st 2) On the weekly - the price has run into significant resistance at the 200MA - there also looks like quite a tough resistance line at 82-83 to overcome I would say (from the chart alone) that the resistance looks tougher than the support at the mo. Cheers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TW11 Posted February 27, 2010 Report Share Posted February 27, 2010 Decision Point on Gold and the Dollar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 27, 2010 Report Share Posted February 27, 2010 My observations so far : +Since 1971, UK houses valued in gold look overbought when the RSI is at 70 or above. We are now still at RSI = 70 despite a huge drop from c. 700 ounces to c. 200 ounces since 2004. More drops ahead? +MACD histogram still positive in Feb 2010, but perhaps heading back to below zero. Again may suggest further drops looking at historical patterns of this indicator on this chart in months ahead. Something doesnt look right about that RSI indicator. How can it still be "overbought"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 27, 2010 Report Share Posted February 27, 2010 He's now frantically piling into USD. This is the clearest message I've had yet to lighten up on dollars. I have hedged about 2/3rds of my Dollar exposure recently, by purchasing in-the-money Puts on UUP (a Dollar etf). If I sell 1/3, I will be fully hedged, and if I sell more, then the UUP puts will hedge the Dollar exposure imbedded in my Put positions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted February 28, 2010 Report Share Posted February 28, 2010 Sorry - disagree with both of your observations: 1) On the daily I see strong negative MACD divergergence starting from Dec 21st 2) On the weekly - the price has run into significant resistance at the 200MA - there also looks like quite a tough resistance line at 82-83 to overcome I would say (from the chart alone) that the resistance looks tougher than the support at the mo. Cheers Perhaps... but my "very bullish" comment was referring to the MACD on the weekly chart. On the face of it, the momentum is with the dollar at the moment. Putting it in context, even if the dollar went to 88 over the next six months or so, I doubt gold [in dollars] would go far below 1000 [am sticking to a post QE floor of 900]. If something like this does eventuate, I'll be piling most of my dollar reserve into gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted February 28, 2010 Report Share Posted February 28, 2010 Looking at the previous pattern on a relative chart [2008], even if the gold price in US dollars declined in the next few months, it could easily increase at the same time...when priced in pounds. This chart is saying diversify out of Sterling.... whether into the dollar, gold, or both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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