bitbigt Posted July 16, 2008 Report Share Posted July 16, 2008 Hi All ...Travelling and so can only pop online occasionally ...and having done so I see the knockdown to precisely the 550-560 range I commented on a few days ago. Now lets see if that holds... The knockdown may happen again tomorrow, in which case the PPT really is pulling out all the stops (also knocking oil and supporting dollar). But hey, this can't go on forever. In the very worst case scenario they'll push gold to 920, but I actually think 940-950 is FAR more likely to be the bottom. Interesting how they've started doing their knockdowns at the end if the London trading day (rather than the open of the US market) - so leaving Europe feeling shell-shocked overnight and so less likely to buy it back up again next a.m. But I also think tomorrow may break the pattern from the last two days (so be careful whoever was planning to trade that). PPT may take a day off, as they'll have spent quite a lot the last 2 days. So I'm open to the possibility of either another wimpy knockdown (945 by close), or another mini-rally back up to 970. Not an easy day for trading (if that's your thing) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted July 16, 2008 Report Share Posted July 16, 2008 Regarding this weeks high inflation numbers in UK and USA, it is curious that this hasn't helped golds rally! I'm guessing this is telling us that inflation is not news, and so rising monthy CPI figures alone will not dramatically drive people towards buying gold. Instead, gold seems to rise most dramatically when fear is increasing, e.g. - first run up to 1000: due to striking collapse in dollars value - recent 100 point run up from 880: due to stock market collapsing again Extending this logic: one would argue that these recent increases in the inflation numbers tend to give people more faith in the likelihood of imminent interest rate rises in UK and USA (something I actually feel certain will happen - but that's another story for another day), and that will strengthen the dollar and REDUCE FEAR - i.e., bad for gold!!! This is what I think will keep a lid on gold for the next month, until the autumn buying period kicks in at the same time that speculative oil money flows into gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
headmelter Posted July 16, 2008 Report Share Posted July 16, 2008 Check out Trader Dan from Jim Sinclair's www.jsmineset.com Thanks Bobsta, very helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted July 17, 2008 Report Share Posted July 17, 2008 Below is Jim Sinclairs commentary on the current situation. Posted On: Wednesday, July 16, 2008, 4:07:00 PM EST The Day Of The Talking Heads Author: Jim Sinclair Dear CIGAs, Do not believe the incredible parade of good tidings from the Fed and the Treasury when the credible is starring you square in the face. Many still need to protect themselves, and this is welcomed opportunity for them to do so. We did hit $990 on the upside which suggests the downside is within reach of the present levels at $940 to $950. Toughen yourself to the volatility of the market place. Charts are being painted and you are being played. Quality junior gold shares are reaching a point from which an expectation of 1000% or more on the upside is not out of the question. Gold is headed to $1200 this year and $1650 in time. The US dollar will trade at .62 and .52 on the USDX. Today is part of the Greatest Show on Earth with a sideshow of Believe it or Not. The answer is NOT. Gold has major support between $940 and $950. That should be it on this reaction. We shall see as I have only had two sessions to come up with an answer. Regardless, nothing has changed and today was officially full of talking head madness. Respectfully yours, Jim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted July 17, 2008 Report Share Posted July 17, 2008 Sheeesh... Jim called that one well... just over 950 now. Happy days.... big pay day on Monday..... and never have the patience to wait. Marceau, you called that well also a few days ago! I like your rational approach but I am just a hopeless out and out gold bug these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted July 17, 2008 Report Share Posted July 17, 2008 $955, I'm starting to buy again. I'll add more longs on further weakness. Hoping to see a sell-off to under $950. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgnao Posted July 17, 2008 Report Share Posted July 17, 2008 Today is part of the Greatest Show on Earth with a sideshow of Believe it or Not. The answer is NOT. Remember: http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflas...060523_2210.htm Intelligence Czar Can Waive SEC Rules MAY 23, 2006 Now, the White House's top spymaster can cite national security to exempt businesses from reporting requirements President George W. Bush has bestowed on his intelligence czar, John Negroponte, broad authority, in the name of national security, to excuse publicly traded companies from their usual accounting and securities-disclosure obligations. Notice of the development came in a brief entry in the Federal Register, dated May 5, 2006, that was opaque to the untrained eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted July 17, 2008 Report Share Posted July 17, 2008 $955, I'm starting to buy again. I'll add more longs on further weakness. Hoping to see a sell-off to under $950. Yep, then more for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted July 17, 2008 Report Share Posted July 17, 2008 Remember: http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflas...060523_2210.htm Intelligence Czar Can Waive SEC Rules MAY 23, 2006 Now, the White House's top spymaster can cite national security to exempt businesses from reporting requirements President George W. Bush has bestowed on his intelligence czar, John Negroponte, broad authority, in the name of national security, to excuse publicly traded companies from their usual accounting and securities-disclosure obligations. Notice of the development came in a brief entry in the Federal Register, dated May 5, 2006, that was opaque to the untrained eye. And now they are calling for transparency for all the short sellers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgnao Posted July 17, 2008 Report Share Posted July 17, 2008 And now they are calling for transparency for all the short sellers. Not all of them. Only those shorting financials. Naked short selling of mining shares is not only allowed, it is encouraged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted July 17, 2008 Report Share Posted July 17, 2008 Hypocrites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgnao Posted July 17, 2008 Report Share Posted July 17, 2008 Free Market. http://www.reuters.com/article/fundsFundsN...0080716?sp=true Securities covered by SEC short sale order Tue Jul 15, 2008 10:05pm EDT (Reuters) - The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission issued an emergency order on Tuesday placing restrictions on the short selling of shares of certain major financial firms. The SEC's order will require that anyone effecting a short sale in these securities arrange beforehand to borrow the securities and deliver them at settlement. The order takes effect Monday, July 21, and will terminate at the end of July 29. The SEC said the order may be extended, but for no more than 30 calendar days in total duration. The agency identified the following securities affected by its order: * BNP Paribas Securities Corp * Bank of America Corp * Barclays PLC * Citigroup Inc * Credit Suisse Group * Daiwa Securities Group Inc * Deutsche Bank Group AG * Allianz SE * Goldman Sachs Group Inc * Royal Bank ADS * HSBC Holdings Plc ADS * JPMorgan Chase & Co * Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc * Merrill Lynch & Co Inc * Mizuho Financial Group Inc * Morgan Stanley * UBS AG * Freddie Mac * Fannie Mae Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted July 17, 2008 Report Share Posted July 17, 2008 I reckon they can be thanked for providing investors with a basketcase list of financials. This is all playing out like an episode of keystone cops. Now we have treasury officials flippantly talking about providing a blank cheque to bolster confidence in the banking institutions. I am starting to think these guys are living in Disneyland. They have no idea of what money means. [Thinking of Disneyland, the reason it is there is so Americans can say THAT is fantasy land, and then be able to deny they are themselves living in a fantasy.] [Apologies to Americans for the generalization.] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgnao Posted July 17, 2008 Report Share Posted July 17, 2008 http://www.futurecasts.com/Depression_desc...nning-%2730.htm DESCENT INTO THE DEPTHS (1930) Rebound from the Great Depression Crash of '29 There had been much talk about eliminating short selling. The NYSE now requested lists of all holders of borrowed stock (short sellers). The rush to cover to stay off the list and to realize profits assisted in ending the decline. The discount rate was reduced again, to 4 1/2%. Congress rushed a tax cut. Rockefeller ordered 1 million shares of Standard Oil at 50. An order for 50,000 shares of U.S. Steel at 150 "pegged" that speculative leader. Its drop from 261 3/4 to 165 had been the bellwether of the crash. The gyrations quieted. The stock market rallied in quiet trading for the rest of November. .... The November rally continued into December, recouped 1/3 of the stock market loss, only to be hit by renewed unloading of distress stocks by banks and brokers and a large volume of short selling which drove prices down yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted July 17, 2008 Report Share Posted July 17, 2008 Sheeesh... Jim called that one well... just over 950 now. Happy days.... big pay day on Monday..... and never have the patience to wait. Marceau, you called that well also a few days ago! I like your rational approach but I am just a hopeless out and out gold bug these days. They sure did call it well, but I hope you don't if I remind you that they weren't the only ones. I, for example, predicted the coming knockdowns would take us to a 950-960 floor 2 days ago (Jul 15 2008, 04:48 PM), as well as stating a 975+ finish for Tuesday evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
headmelter Posted July 17, 2008 Report Share Posted July 17, 2008 $955, I'm starting to buy again. I'll add more longs on further weakness. Hoping to see a sell-off to under $950. Do you reckon we'll see the 'usual' pullback today at 3.30pm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted July 17, 2008 Report Share Posted July 17, 2008 Do you reckon we'll see the 'usual' pullback today at 3.30pm? More than possible, however I have already made some medium term buys on the dips to $955 and the dip to $953. If we get smacked down futher I will add more. I'm keen to see what mark down I can get on miners when the NYSE opens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted July 17, 2008 Report Share Posted July 17, 2008 They sure did call it well, but I hope you don't if I remind you that they weren't the only ones. I, for example, predicted the knowckdown would take us to a 950-960 floor 2 days ago, as well as stating a 975+ finish for Tuesday So you did! Sorry not to acknowledge. Actually to be honest, I think I may be suffering from gold fever these days. I do not pay much attention to the daily fluctuations [though I do like to follow the commentary on them here]. I must be a hopeless case because I just want to buy as soon as I can... whatever the digits say. What am I doing for my two month holiday you may ask. Panning for gold in New Zealand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted July 17, 2008 Report Share Posted July 17, 2008 They sure did call it well, but I hope you don't if I remind you that they weren't the only ones. I, for example, predicted the knowckdown would take us to a 950-960 floor 2 days ago (Jul 15 2008, 04:48 PM), as well as stating a 975+ finish for Tuesday This move (so far) has been fairly predictable in TA terms and has really been a matter of patience. I'll be interested to see if I'm still so rational when a spanner gets thrown in the works. I have a feeling I'll need to dig out my biggest set of steel balls for the next few day's trading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
headmelter Posted July 17, 2008 Report Share Posted July 17, 2008 More than possible, however I have already made some medium term buys on the dips to $955 and the dip to $953. If we get smacked down futher I will add more. I'm keen to see what mark down I can get on miners when the NYSE opens. I asked recently about adding to core physical and am intending to do so, if it does dip below $950 where is the next support as i don't know whether to split my capital and hold off or go 'all in'. Total amount between £10-£15k opinions appreciated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted July 17, 2008 Report Share Posted July 17, 2008 I asked recently about adding to core physical and am intending to do so, if it does dip below $950 where is the next support as i don't know whether to split my capital and hold off or go 'all in'. Total amount between £10-£15k opinions appreciated Somewhere between $910 and $920 would be the next major support. Personally I think if it dips below $950 (or $947) it's more likely to be a bear trap than an extended correction. But don't bet your life on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
headmelter Posted July 17, 2008 Report Share Posted July 17, 2008 Somewhere between $910 and $920 would be the next major support. Personally I think if it dips below $950 (or $947) it's more likely to be a bear trap than an extended correction. But don't bet your life on it. I'll flip a coin, maybe a baffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted July 17, 2008 Report Share Posted July 17, 2008 Somewhere between $910 and $920 would be the next major support. Personally I think if it dips below $950 (or $947) it's more likely to be a bear trap than an extended correction. But don't bet your life on it. I'd bet the ranch if it went to $910. Peter Schiff is good on the "blank cheque" tonight. http://www.europac.net/radioshow_archives.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted July 17, 2008 Report Share Posted July 17, 2008 So you did! Sorry not to acknowledge. Actually to be honest, I think I may be suffering from gold fever these days. I do not pay much attention to the daily fluctuations [though I do like to follow the commentary on them here]. I must be a hopeless case because I just want to buy as soon as I can... whatever the digits say. What am I doing for my two month holiday you may ask. Panning for gold in New Zealand. No need to apologise, but very decent of you to do so. Its not possible to remember everyones predctions ...I'd be the first to admit my guestimates are not anywhere nearly as logically justfied as e.g., those from Marceau. I just closely monitor all relevant global events (e.g., Freddie, Fannie, FED/PPT reaction), watch the fundamentals (e.g., inflation, employment, exchange rate trends), keep one eye on technicals, and glean gold sentiment from various indicators. Then digest it all and (via something that is art more than science) judge where the PoG is likely to go. It's hard to summarise all that thinking in a few line posting - and since its all just glorified guesswork, it doesn't seem worth it to try to write it all down. Plus we're all doing those same analyses anyway Bottom line - take my (or anyones) predictions with a big pinch of salt ...but feel free to laugh out loud and rub my nose in it if/when I get it very wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted July 17, 2008 Report Share Posted July 17, 2008 Somewhere between $910 and $920 would be the next major support. Personally I think if it dips below $950 (or $947) it's more likely to be a bear trap than an extended correction. But don't bet your life on it. Agreed. 920 absolute floor (as I posted last night) but I really don't think we'll get there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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