Errol Posted December 31, 2008 Report Share Posted December 31, 2008 Backwardation breakout? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted December 31, 2008 Author Report Share Posted December 31, 2008 Backwardation breakout? Article, chart? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azazel Posted December 31, 2008 Report Share Posted December 31, 2008 Great! Gold sees the new year in above £600 an ounce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted December 31, 2008 Report Share Posted December 31, 2008 Great! Gold sees the new year in above £600 an ounce. Gold has finished the year exactly on £600.00 per ounce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azazel Posted December 31, 2008 Report Share Posted December 31, 2008 Gold has finished the year exactly on £600.00 per ounce. Its also finished on exactly the same price in $ as it started the year, $880. So its up 35% in pounds, YOY, but the same in dollars. Seems im saved by Browns pound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electroweak Posted January 1, 2009 Report Share Posted January 1, 2009 Its also finished on exactly the same price in $ as it started the year, $880. So its up 35% in pounds, YOY, but the same in dollars. Seems im saved by Browns pound. hmm....: $879.40/oz (Goldmoney) $881.10 (Kitco) $880.18 (BullionVault) Also: Gold has finished the year exactly on £600.00 per ounce. £606.60/oz (Goldmoney) £603.25 (BullionVault) Bloomberg were reporing gold gained 5% over the year in USD. I think this is right.. LBMA gold fix in USD, GBP, EUR 02-Jan-08 840.75 424.806 573.343 - edit WOW... £424... can't even remember gold being that low!! - Are we in a bubble? (I must remember, this effect is ALL about the pound......pound anti-bubble?) More important will we break out from the downtrend convincingly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy-old-man Posted January 1, 2009 Report Share Posted January 1, 2009 More important will we break out from the downtrend convincingly? this is where most of the TA's will get it wrong imo. The TA's who factor in experience & common sense at this point will get it right. what is it they say, anyone can make money in a bull market. The thing is, we are now in a bear market, an uber-bear market imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
headmelter Posted January 1, 2009 Report Share Posted January 1, 2009 Anyone think the £ might regain some ground on the $? I've been thinking of selling some krugs and other bits and pieces of non UK denominated coins in order to get some Brits and sovs. Is this wise? I'm thinking there could well be a dip after Jan, what are other peoples thoughts? Opinions appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted January 1, 2009 Report Share Posted January 1, 2009 Anyone think the £ might regain some ground on the $? I've been thinking of selling some krugs and other bits and pieces of non UK denominated coins in order to get some Brits and sovs. Is this wise? I'm thinking there could well be a dip after Jan, what are other peoples thoughts? Opinions appreciated. I suspect we will see massive volatility this year. I have just sold a small part of my bullion during this latest spike in order to buy on a coming dip. I believe we will both see further dips [punctuated by spikes of course], due to the scary economy and a macro-deflation, and also see POG break out at a later date to new highs. I have opened a Goldmoney account with what I recently sold. I plan to [semi] trade between gold and US dollars, but very infrequently...at most once a month following the large swings, in an effort to increase the amount of ounces in that account. If I get it wrong no great harm done... I have some cash in a bank account. Beyond this little bit of speculation, frankly, at the moment, in this environment, I am not interested. Perhaps in a year or two's time I will start to think about commodities. As for the pound, I guess it is due for a rally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted January 1, 2009 Author Report Share Posted January 1, 2009 It seems the US dollar is officially toast (in China): http://jsmineset.com/index.php/2008/12/31/...monty-guild-11/ Recently, we have been hearing general disbelief in the future value of the U.S. dollar from China, the holder of the largest amount of U.S. bonds (and the expected buyer for most of the new bonds to be sold). In recent weeks, several key Chinese officials have made negative comments about the U.S. dollar. The first official comments were that China will not make new investments in U.S. banks, because they wanted to spend the money on growth within China. A second senior official said that the U.S. should not get complacent, and continue to believe that dollar would stay high just because it had been rising for a few months. The third comment was made this past week in Hong Kong’s largest newspaper, the South China Morning Post. It was made by Chinese Central Bank governor Zhou Ziaochuan. He said, "The U.S. dollar is unlikely to be stable next year and later…and the likelihood of the United States issuing more money in the near future adds to the depreciation risk in the U.S.-dollar-denominated assets and trade settlement." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted January 1, 2009 Author Report Share Posted January 1, 2009 Gordon really, really screwed that gold sale up, didn't he? http://gold.approximity.com/since1999/Gold_GBP.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted January 1, 2009 Report Share Posted January 1, 2009 Now that's a price ceiling if ever I saw one, perhaps with a little artex on the right hand side And just like all artex ceilings, this one deserves to be busted right through - and it will be!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted January 1, 2009 Report Share Posted January 1, 2009 Anyone think the £ might regain some ground on the $? ... Opinions appreciated. I'll answer this call for a prediction, if I may, by reference to the predictions I made for December one month ago... i.e.; 1. Having fallen to new lows, and risen again, the DOW and FTSE will remain bouyant (at least most of) December - but they are still likely to see far lower new lows over next few months 2. Further emergency base rate cut in UK, down as much as 1% further (at least 0.5%) 3. Sterling will not fall with respect to USD, whilst USDX will fall back to mid or low 80's 4. Price of oil will creep up, just reflecting the weakenning USD. In Q1/2 2009 we will see oil at USD 40 for a brief (intraday?) period 5. Western inflation falling further (cpi at 3.5 - 4%), but it will be transient! Big inflation problems will be with us by mid/end 2009 6. Something big seems likely to happen in PoG: a >$100 move. Either a big smack down, or a big rise as COMEX gets stressed (but not broken) by demands for delivery. My guess is it will be the latter. Weakenning USDX will help this move. 7. More examples of govs bailing out any and all 'too big to fail' companies (finance and US car makers), ensuring a long inflationary rather than a short deflationary recession 8. People will start to realise that Broones ideas for a gobally coordinated wave of fiscal stimulation are not really happening (UK or anywhere), and that such an approach is anyway as effective pushing on a string. This will decrease confidence in Western economies further, and push up government bond yields. That is the start of a massive Western currency depreciation that will put 2009 into the history books. This couldn't have been more right on points 1, 2, 3, 7 and 8. Almost perfect on the other three points as well... Point 4 was correct, but oil then slid back again as the dollar stabilised. On point 5 I missed the CPI rate by just 0.1%. And on point 6, there was indeed a 100 point change - though both down and up! I wish I had the balls to trade my predictions For January: 1. DOW and FTSE again remaining flatish, and probably rising one little bit further once Black Barrack takes the reigns and gives out some more money to Joe Public 2. Even more emergency base rate cut in UK, down as much as 1% further (at least 0.5%) 3. Sterling will stabilise & creep up for a brief period, and then shock everyone by falling to the EURO 0.95 range 4. USD will follow same pattern as GBP, so GBP:USD rate not changing significantly 5. Price of oil will rebound up to USD 50, taking silver up with it 6. Western inflation falling further (UK CPI to 3.7 plus/minus 0.1%) 7. Gold will continue gaining to USD 920 8. 50% chance of War! Israel bombing Iran and/or Indian going into Pakistan. Will create 15% instant jump in PoG and 10% drop in major stock markets (over-ruling my above predictions) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S60R Posted January 1, 2009 Report Share Posted January 1, 2009 bigtbigt, >5. Price of oil will rebound up to USD 50, taking silver up with it Interesting. Could you, please, explain this particular correlation between the price of oil and silver here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted January 1, 2009 Report Share Posted January 1, 2009 bigtbigt, >5. Price of oil will rebound up to USD 50, taking silver up with it Interesting. Could you, please, explain this particular correlation between the price of oil and silver here? First - take all my views with a big pinch of salt! That said.... Regarding my prediction #5: I suspect oil may see the USD 30 level in next few months, and perhaps even in January (and I'm planning to put a lot more into OILB if that index hits 16-17 [current at ~21, with my breakeven at 29: equating to USD 55]). But I also feel a dead cat bounce is due (15% up). Recent price activity suggests that bounce may start now. As to why it should take silver up with it (probably 15% also), its purely an empirical argument... silver fell precipitously when oil fell, pushing the gold:silver ratio unusually high. So that ratio now needs to correct, and at the same time if oil rises and silver continues to track its price, then we should see a 15-20% pop in price of silver. ...and I'd put the chance of this all unfolding at 2/3 DYOR!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted January 2, 2009 Report Share Posted January 2, 2009 I think this sums it up nicely... http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article7957.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted January 2, 2009 Report Share Posted January 2, 2009 I think this sums it up nicely... http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article7957.html I find that big smiley signal in the gold graph a little scary. Last time we saw that look what happened to POG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
id5 Posted January 2, 2009 Report Share Posted January 2, 2009 As part of my own end of year research I create a few graphs. These two are specific to gold so I thought that I would post them here for you all to enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fortune Posted January 2, 2009 Report Share Posted January 2, 2009 Hmm...interesting. Can we see the old "Sell in May and go away" pattern here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
id5 Posted January 2, 2009 Report Share Posted January 2, 2009 Hmm...interesting. Can we see the old "Sell in May and go away" pattern here? You will be able to see it better in the one below, it is another that I also create. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Catflap Posted January 2, 2009 Report Share Posted January 2, 2009 You will be able to see it better in the one below, it is another that I also create. What a truely excellent graph showing the seasonal patterns of gold - remarkably consistent and showing the best points to invest!. How did you find the POG in GBP as I've only ever seen historical data in USD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
id5 Posted January 2, 2009 Report Share Posted January 2, 2009 What a truely excellent graph showing the seasonal patterns of gold - remarkably consistent and showing the best points to invest!. How did you find the POG in GBP as I've only ever seen historical data in USD? The LBMA have the data in GBP here I dump it and other data feeds into an SQL database which allows me to play with analysis cubes and pivots. EDIT: I am glad you liked the graph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fortune Posted January 2, 2009 Report Share Posted January 2, 2009 Ah, so its "Sell at the end of Nov and come back Jun next year". Nice chart by the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
id5 Posted January 2, 2009 Report Share Posted January 2, 2009 Ah, so its "Sell at the end of Nov and come back Jun next year". Nice chart by the way. Thanks for the compliment on the chart The best result on average seems to be buy in the dip that seems to occur about the second week in September and hold until mid May as the lines effectively wrap due to the percentage being reset in Jan, you can see the price wrapping in the earlier charts that I posted. The earlier ones also shown that in some years the increase doesn't occur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted January 2, 2009 Report Share Posted January 2, 2009 Great charts id5. I wonder if the patterns seen in the POG will hold over the next few years. I think that we may reach a time soon when it is just going up all the time and not having the usual seasonal movements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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