CIGA Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 LOL spoke to my parents today. For those that don't know my parent were born in india, came here about 1960 something, about 60 years old (in those days no birth certifcate in indian viallges LOL). I'm a british asian, born here. The old man starts talking about bear sterns and uk injections of cash for banks as well as u.s injections recession depression what???. I talk to him about gold thinking i got a thing or 2 to tell him. My dad told me!! Dad: Hey that's 'paper' (I LOL'd) backed by nothing, gold is transferable to any country in the world and holds a store of value that will NEVER be zero. Me: Ok dad, anyway there is a pullback going on i might buy some more. Dad: I don't understand what you mean by 'pullback' if you got some spare cash i have no issue, in fact i recommend, you buy some gold. My dad does not watch CNBC or FOX, he wathces BBC news, he is unable to operate a computer and does not use the internet, his stories of gold are ingrainded in him, he understand the one true currency more than most. He has also witnessed boom and bust in the UK since the 60's and religously watches the news. Basically: buy gold, buy silver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!) Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 slightly related maybe we should be shorting BHP and not Lehman Commodities Sell Off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pluto Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 I would suggest that your thoughts are exactly those of the mainstream at the moment. Let's not forget that the mainstream, including the supposedly smart big players, were among the last to get into the PM bull market. That they are leaving it now suggests they never really understood it in the first place. Most of my profits (and no doubt yours) were from buying while these bozos were still dabbling in sub prime and CDOs. They were wrong then, they can just as easily be wrong now. No, I am doing the opposite. Mainstream is talking inflation all the time now. The masses are talking about the price of food and oil specifically, and even gold has made it on BBC and other channels with regularity. Deflation is actually a contrarian view right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 I agree with most of what you are saying, and don't get me wrong I believe in Gold regardless of inflation of deflation. The point I am trying to make is this: At the end of the day it doesn't matter what Fed does, they print as much money as they want and they to, they can bail out every single bank in the US even. However, if the money the create or print never makes it into the economy prices won't rise. In recent years the money has made its way into economy via mortgages, refis, and MEWs. These were the conduits for getting the money into the masses pockets so they could spend, which were shown in M3 stats. Now, lets fast forward to the future, what conduits are there going to be for getting the predicted 18% / annum M3 money into the economy. What you are saying is that money created in the future will find its way into commodities. If that is true, there is going to be a few problems like the CPI numbers, which will flag increases in commodities, but did not with housing. Western base level buyers do not dictate the price of basic commodities. Their demand for essentials will remain static so they are almost irrelevant to commodity inflation. If the Fed bonanza doesn't make it through to them only non-essentials will deflate (plasma TVs, cars, owning a house), they will still have to heat and eat, so demand will not decline. The price of essential commodities and PMs will be driven by inflation in BRIC economies and the tide of money in the hands of the large cash players. Credit is mainly a western device which only really effects non-essential purchases. It does not exist in China or Brazil for the average consumer (yet), hence our ability to report low CPI, which comprises mostly non-essentials, which haven't been inflated by the BRIC nations (yet). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pluto Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 LOL spoke to my parents today. For those that don't know my parent were born in india, came here about 1960 something, about 60 years old (in those days no birth certifcate in indian viallges LOL). I'm a british asian, born here. The old man starts talking about bear sterns and uk injections of cash for banks as well as u.s injections recession depression what???. I talk to him about gold thinking i got a thing or 2 to tell him. My dad told me!! Dad: Hey that's 'paper' (I LOL'd) backed by nothing, gold is transferable to any country in the world and holds a store of value that will NEVER be zero. Me: Ok dad, anyway there is a pullback going on i might buy some more. Dad: I don't understand what you mean by 'pullback' if you got some spare cash i have no issue, in fact i recommend, you buy some gold. My dad does not watch CNBC or FOX, he wathces BBC news, he is unable to operate a computer and does not use the internet, his stories of gold are ingrainded in him, he understand the one true currency more than most. He has also witnessed boom and bust in the UK since the 60's and religously watches the news. Basically: buy gold, buy silver. I have an Indian friend and I remember his dad telling me the same thing over 20 years ago. As I have said before - there is no default or counter party risk with bullion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simonc Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 I think that deserves being quoted on here (in case it disappears) I take it that Adrian's outburst doesn't convince some posters here? Is a strict "under the mattress" policy the only way forward with PMs in these uncertain times I believe GF has complete faith with BV or have I got that wrong? Peter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 So, by big dollar holders you are implying that commodities will increase in price regardless of M3 numbers. Then the money would have to moved from somewhere else, which would cause a collapse in price somewhere else. No, we need new money for more rising prices. No, I am saying that M3 doesn't have to filter through to the base level western consumer to have an impact. It does have an impact when it ends up in the hands of the big dollar holders (which it does 90% of the time). We are getting new money from M3, that it doesn't hit the pocket of Billy Bob Bucktooth in South Carolina is irrelevant to commodities as per my post above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 LOL spoke to my parents today. For those that don't know my parent were born in india, came here about 1960 something, about 60 years old (in those days no birth certifcate in indian viallges LOL). I'm a british asian, born here. The old man starts talking about bear sterns and uk injections of cash for banks as well as u.s injections recession depression what???. I talk to him about gold thinking i got a thing or 2 to tell him. My dad told me!! Dad: Hey that's 'paper' (I LOL'd) backed by nothing, gold is transferable to any country in the world and holds a store of value that will NEVER be zero. Me: Ok dad, anyway there is a pullback going on i might buy some more. Dad: I don't understand what you mean by 'pullback' if you got some spare cash i have no issue, in fact i recommend, you buy some gold. My dad does not watch CNBC or FOX, he wathces BBC news, he is unable to operate a computer and does not use the internet, his stories of gold are ingrainded in him, he understand the one true currency more than most. He has also witnessed boom and bust in the UK since the 60's and religously watches the news. Basically: buy gold, buy silver. Brilliant :D I have to admit to a little racism here. I think some races are far more canny with money than others. Maybe you've just proved that :D I'm trying desperately to overcome my white anglo saxon shortcomings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 I take it that Adrian's outburst doesn't convince some posters here? Is a strict "under the mattress" policy the only way forward with PMs in these uncertain times I believe GF has complete faith with BV or have I got that wrong? Peter Like GF I didn't need convincing. I hardly think you can correctly describe that post as an outburst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted March 20, 2008 Author Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 ... Bernanke will not at any point 'pull the rug from the economy'. He will carry on intervening and inflating as long as he has the weaponry to do so. We get deflation not when Bernanke decides, but when he fails, and that hour has not yet come. Do you really believe the commodity bull market is over? I don't. All I see is a lot of panic and fear, a lot of margin calls and a lot of investors making classic bull market mistakes. I think gold will fall further, but purely based on the technical fall out from the last few days. That, in my opinion, will present the last great buying opportunities to be had below $1000. I agree 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 Here's an interesting one: Have they shot themselves in the foot ? I made this point yesterday. They are playing with fire by pretending that they care about inflation. Why kick away the only leg which is holding your chair up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marmite Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 Anyone got any thoughts on all the "shortage of physical" posts on a number of gold forums by our american cousins ? Is this dealers protecting themselves from high volatility ?? Did the same happen in 2006 ?? Or is it a sign of something else ?? apmex online service down http://www.apmex.com/ ASE production halted ?? http://goldismoney.info/forums/showthread.php?t=248793 List of dealers sold out ??? http://goldismoney.info/forums/showthread.php?t=248420 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!) Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 I agree 100%. some more thoughts on the gold drop http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article4079.html[/url] How do you know when you're through the looking glass? A fairly good indication is when the price of gold, which normally moves up in response to monetary easing, instead plummets in reaction to one of the largest rate cuts in Fed history. Apparently, yesterday's 6% drop in gold resulted from the “hawkishness” shown by the Fed in only cutting rates by 75 basis points, rather than the 100 points that many had expected. It is a testament to how low the bar has been set that the Fed can slash rates in the face of a collapsing dollar and soaring commodity prices and still be viewed as hawkish on inflation. Is it just me, or is Ben Bernanke morphing into the Mad Hatter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Thyme Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 No, I am saying that M3 doesn't have to filter through to the base level western consumer to have an impact. It does have an impact when it ends up in the hands of the big dollar holders (which it does 90% of the time). We are getting new money from M3, that it doesn't hit the pocket of Billy Bob Bucktooth in South Carolina is irrelevant to commodities as per my post above. Do you mean to say that all the extra liquidity being pumped into the banks is ending up being used for speculation in the commodity markets ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted March 20, 2008 Author Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 So, by big dollar holders you are implying that commodities will increase in price regardless of M3 numbers. Then the money would have to moved from somewhere else, which would cause a collapse in price somewhere else. No, we need new money for more rising prices. I am not so sure about this. I think it will be enough if the existing money seeks a new home. Away from triple-A subprime to commodities. However, the bailouts will indeed create new money. The bailouts will make sure that anyone who wants no AAA anymore can get out and into the new bubble. They don't want to, but they will create another bubble. It's going to be (and has been already for while) commodities and precious metals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marmite Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 I hope this is the start of a long summer bear trap ( awareness stage ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 The inflation coming in the next 2-3yrs will be monstrous and make what we have seen so far look like nothing at all. The fed will bail out everything. Nothing will be allowed to fail. Make no mistake. Gold will exceed $1650. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pluto Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 Interesting dude. http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=VfT4FCWO6KA It will be interesting to hear what Puplava and guests have to say about this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted March 20, 2008 Author Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 I take it that Adrian's outburst doesn't convince some posters here? Is a strict "under the mattress" policy the only way forward with PMs in these uncertain times I believe GF has complete faith with BV or have I got that wrong? Peter I think BV is an extremely good service, and any gold I store there is possibly safer than in a home or a bank. There are certain risks, like confiscation or capital flow restrictions etc. But there are also certain risks if you store bullion privately. I use BV, and I use other services as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted March 20, 2008 Author Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 I told you so. :lol: See also: Towards the danger zone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ologhai Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 I hope this is the start of a long summer bear trap ( awareness stage ) What if this is the bull trap, and the bear trap was back in May '06? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ologhai Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 And what's happening here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pluto Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 And what's happening here? Pay no attention to weekend after hour trades - especially bullion and forex. Today is classed as a week ending day because of Good Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!) Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 seems like cgnao called it but he would do QUOTE (crudeFool @ Mar 20 2008, 01:21 PM) Hammered is an understatement Extremely good call - did you buy more, or are you waiting for it to get near to $887.50? Regards, crude. Today I unloaded half of the put options I bought the day I made the call and bought more bullion. Still some downside possible. Depends on how much physical gold the manipulators are willing/capable to dump. All this is a rather impressive, co-ordinated central bank effort to try and save the US dollar by making the world believe deflation is coming. It won't work. This is all you need to know and is 100% correct, guaranteed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted March 20, 2008 Author Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 And what's happening here? That's what happens when people on BV sell/buy larger amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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