Plastic Elastic Posted November 24, 2011 Report Share Posted November 24, 2011 Some interesting gold/economy charts. Provided as is - not trying to start an argument. Make of them what you will (I like the last 3 in particular). Taken from http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-gold-still-answer-investors [...] [...] I find this one truly and particularly shocking!! GAZILLIONS of liquidity sloshing around in the system desperately looking for MORE YIELD, MORE MONEY, MORE RETURN, and nowhere near enough real goods or industry there to deliver it!! Not that we didn't know it but it's no surprise that in the last few decades we have seen one asset and stockmarket bubble after the other, more and more environmental devastation, longer and longer working hours, more and more ludicrous financial instruments, a greater and greater wealth gap in many countries and so on and so on... I think it's not too far-fetched to claim that the world is indeed drowning in liquidity and useless paper! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted November 24, 2011 Author Report Share Posted November 24, 2011 Nice charts, Errol. But don't rule out a big break of trend, and then maybe a return to it. If/when it shoots above, that may be a sign an important top is being put in place. Essentially, we are already in the round number dance that belongs to $2,000, aren't we? It's always the same... I believe there could be a big break in trend, only I don't know whether it would be to the up or the downside. Fundamentally, it should be the upside. But, say, Deutsche went under sometime soon, maybe some manic traders would be inclined to throw gold away under that scenario (for no good reason, of course, but we know this is not about logic). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted November 24, 2011 Author Report Share Posted November 24, 2011 I did remember some funny calls here about gold will be @$5000US an ounce back in 2009 anytime soon.......still waiting Bad gold! It has only doubled since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted November 24, 2011 Author Report Share Posted November 24, 2011 I find this one truly and particularly shocking!! GAZILLIONS of liquidity sloshing around in the system desperately looking for MORE YIELD, MORE MONEY, MORE RETURN, and nowhere near enough real goods or industry there to deliver it!! Not that we didn't know it but it's no surprise that in the last few decades we have seen one asset and stockmarket bubble after the other, more and more environmental devastation, longer and longer working hours, more and more ludicrous financial instruments, a greater and greater wealth gap in many countries and so on and so on... I think it's not too far-fetched to claim that the world is indeed drowning in liquidity and useless paper! Yes. That's why so many are herded to invest in "certificates" and other derivatives - usually these are just empty paper promises, because there just isn't enough real wealth to go around at these prices. When the paper shufflers wake up, it will be over. I watch Bubb as an one of my indicators. There seems to be no immediate danger yet (for the sleepers to awaken, I mean), but I would continue to accumulate. I think we're getting closer. Another big broker blowing up or bank going under, and we could be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted November 24, 2011 Author Report Share Posted November 24, 2011 If I bought in September I would be at a loss and that is fact. Yes, and a totally irrelevant one too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted November 24, 2011 Report Share Posted November 24, 2011 I find this one truly and particularly shocking!! GAZILLIONS of liquidity sloshing around in the system desperately looking for MORE YIELD, MORE MONEY, MORE RETURN, and nowhere near enough real goods or industry there to deliver it!! Not that we didn't know it but it's no surprise that in the last few decades we have seen one asset and stockmarket bubble after the other, more and more environmental devastation, longer and longer working hours, more and more ludicrous financial instruments, a greater and greater wealth gap in many countries and so on and so on... I think it's not too far-fetched to claim that the world is indeed drowning in liquidity and useless paper! Ah, but think of all those gazillion holes of debt that has a claim on all those gazillions of "Janus-faced" money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plastic Elastic Posted November 24, 2011 Report Share Posted November 24, 2011 Yes. That's why so many are herded to invest in "certificates" and other derivatives - usually these are just empty paper promises, because there just isn't enough real wealth to go around at these prices. When the paper shufflers wake up, it will be over. I watch Bubb as an one of my indicators. There seems to be no immediate danger yet (for the sleepers to awaken, I mean), but I would continue to accumulate. Precisely!! This graph totally contravenes and undermines the entire idea of selling useless bits of paper from A to B, and then A buying it back from B a little while later. There will be a point where this particular piece of music stops playing. The emperor doesn't wear any clothes! I totally agree we are not there yet, and I also hope anything that is creating genuine wealth has not been destroyed by then! Every day I go to work I can see the effects of an asset stripping exercise carried out at my work place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted November 24, 2011 Author Report Share Posted November 24, 2011 Ah, but think of all those gazillion holes of debt that has a claim on all those gazillions of "Janus-faced" money. But much of debt can't be paid, so there's going to be some money 'left over'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plastic Elastic Posted November 24, 2011 Report Share Posted November 24, 2011 Ah, but think of all those gazillion holes of debt that has a claim on all those gazillions of "Janus-faced" money. Yes, the two lines lines need to align again! I'm still not clear whether that's going to happen through a collapse of debt and money supply, a rapid decrease in value of monetary units or (at best) a slow and orderly decline... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted November 24, 2011 Report Share Posted November 24, 2011 Yes, the two lines lines need to align again! I'm still not clear whether that's going to happen through a collapse of debt and money supply, a rapid decrease in value of monetary units or (at best) a slow and orderly decline... My money is on the latter option: And it's relative; asset prices decline relative to currency, and currencies decline relative to gold [some more than others]. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
50sQuiff Posted November 24, 2011 Report Share Posted November 24, 2011 Actually you answered your own question and yes I can spend US Dollars almost anywhere as there are always plenty of takers for it. Gold on the other hand will be much harder to sell, since the spot price now seems to trending south. Eh? By your own definition, none of the assets I listed are liquid in Britain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
d2thdr Posted November 24, 2011 Report Share Posted November 24, 2011 Actually you answered your own question and yes I can spend US Dollars almost anywhere as there are always plenty of takers for it. Gold on the other hand will be much harder to sell, since the spot price now seems to trending south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted November 24, 2011 Report Share Posted November 24, 2011 My money is on the latter option: And it's relative; asset prices decline relative to currency, and currencies decline relative to gold [some more than others]. Just to add, the above liquidity triangle [the liquidity prefernece] explains why both gold and bonds appear to be in a bull market... something that continues to mystify many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlton Posted November 25, 2011 Report Share Posted November 25, 2011 Actually you answered your own question and yes I can spend US Dollars almost anywhere as there are always plenty of takers for it. Gold on the other hand will be much harder to sell, since the spot price now seems to trending south. Gold is always and everywhere salable. Anyone who has difficulty selling gold is doing something wrong. There is a reason Brit fighter pilots carry sovereigns (and not certs for shares of Unilever) with them into battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted November 25, 2011 Report Share Posted November 25, 2011 [Parallel Universe On] Gold Forecast by Ker Nulov "Gold for Bears: Time to short to $430 It has been a long time since my last gold analysis. I believe at this time we already had seen the top. But I have to change the timing and the target. So now it is $430 by Aug 2012. This doesn't ryme with the Euro reaching 0.80 by Feb 2012 but charts point to this numbers. (probably shorting the Euro and adding profits to gold later would be the best strategy) There are no clear channels on gold, would it be daily, weekly or monthly, so I am basing the analisys mostly on the candlesticks and resistance levels. The channels drawn on charts are just guesses. Daily chart I believe we are at resistance level, though it is not a clear one (the red line). Candlesticks for last week indicate a top. The move looks like an impulsive down with retracement ended on tuesday-wednessday. Note that the green range is the trading range and the red line is the mid point, where I expect the reversal to happen. This is the weekly, to show the top " [/Parallel Universe Off] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
d2thdr Posted November 25, 2011 Report Share Posted November 25, 2011 Yes, the two lines lines need to align again! I'm still not clear whether that's going to happen through a collapse of debt and money supply, a rapid decrease in value of monetary units or (at best) a slow and orderly decline... These 2 images might help. Quite self explanatory I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted November 25, 2011 Author Report Share Posted November 25, 2011 Gold Forecast by Ker Nulov "Gold for Bears: Time to short to $430 Waahh, a MAJOR Ker contra-indicator buy signal!!!! Beep-beep-beep --- backing up the truck! EDIT: BTW, how can he still have any capital left? EDIT2: Ker is usually so wrong, it might be worth taking on a highly levered bet against him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manual labourer Posted November 25, 2011 Report Share Posted November 25, 2011 Waahh, a MAJOR Ker contra-indicator buy signal!!!! Beep-beep-beep --- backing up the truck! EDIT: BTW, how can he still have any capital left? EDIT2: Ker is usually so wrong, it might be worth taking on a highly levered bet against him. I think his nickname should be Wan! Regards ML * I forecast sometime ago on here 1150/1220 area was a slight possibilty off the monthly chart as a strong buying area, however due to the dangerous times we live in I wouldn't sell any allocated physical and gamble on the fall,if we do revisit that area then it would be a back the truck up with remaining available funds, strap yourself in and ride the market to 2450 area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted November 25, 2011 Report Share Posted November 25, 2011 $430 an ounce?? Bring it on. Would be buying 6-7 times more at that price. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted November 25, 2011 Report Share Posted November 25, 2011 A "Window of Opportunity" is nearly here... GOLD & SILVER SUPPORT NEARBY ?? I may buy some Calls on GLD today (with one hand, if not with both) GLD is getting very near to important support ... update GLD support is about $160.80 (144d MA) : GLD-2mos.chart SLV support is about : $ 29.70 (377d MA) : SLV-2mos.chart (Though the opportunity looks to be similar, I am not quite so bullish as when I said "back up the truck" exactly on the last low - But I do expect to be buying calls.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stunlee Posted November 25, 2011 Report Share Posted November 25, 2011 A "Window of Opportunity" is nearly here... Yep I agree with your analysis, my fingers are twitching on the buy button as well, though I am still waiting for the spot price to touch 1650 or so. I noticed that your charts for GLD are somewhat different to my charts for XAUUSD. Am I right in thinking that GLD is an ETF? The GLD price seems to be consistently lower than the spot price. Do you find it easier to trade than spot? Do the two correlate very strongly? I think his nickname should be Wan! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted November 25, 2011 Report Share Posted November 25, 2011 Currency Wars - Russia Officially Adds 19.5 Tonnes of Gold Reserves in October Alone Russia bought 19.5 metric tons of gold in October bringing their total gold reserves to 871.1 tons according to IMF data released today. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/currency-wars-russia-officially-adds-195-tonnes-gold-reserves-october-alone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted November 25, 2011 Report Share Posted November 25, 2011 :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted November 25, 2011 Author Report Share Posted November 25, 2011 :lol: At least he didn't go back on the time axis with his red line. As long as there is cheap credit this will not happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted November 26, 2011 Report Share Posted November 26, 2011 This is my favorite Ker chart from November 2009. At least he didn't go back on the time axis with his red line. As long as there is cheap credit this will not happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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