GOLD

[G0ldfinger]

I think someone just cleared their B&B account and put it all into gold.

 

+$10 in an hour, not too bad.

[Steve Netwriter]

Steve,

 

A few months back you posted a chart of the gold price with the COT position on a mini graph underneath. Do you have a link to the source?

 

Thanks,

 

CC

 

Sorry for the delay. Just watching 10.5 Apocalypse

 

I think you mean this one:

 

http://timingcharts.com/index.php

 

Just select gold and what sort of COT data you want underneath.

 

[azazel]

I think someone just cleared their B&B account and put it all into gold.

 

+$10 in an hour, not too bad.

 

yer impressive!

 

Do you ever trade gold in your BV account to make some profit, goldfinger, or are you strictly buy and hold?

[grasslizard]

Very interesting article in the Telegraph today: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...2/ccview102.xml

 

Highlights:

 

Argentina is defaulting on its sovereign debt yet again, this time by stealth. The official Consumer Price Index (CPI) is 8.9pc. The true inflation rate is more than 25pc, according to union staff of the statistics office.

 

"Easy money is the culprit," says Joachim Fels, chief economist at Morgan Stanley.

 

"Weighted global interest rates are 4.3pc, while global inflation is above 5pc. The real policy rate in the world is negative. Central banks are both fuelling and accommodating the rise in food and energy prices," he said.

 

"Governments that have repeatedly inflated away or defaulted on their debts will, in all likelihood, not hesitate to default again," she said.

 

Never buy a bond until you know who runs the statistics office.

Of course this only applies to emerging markets doesn't it.....

[Steve Netwriter]

I think someone just cleared their B&B account and put it all into gold.

 

+$10 in an hour, not too bad.

 

I've been thinking about this over the weekend.

It's the Queen's Birthday holiday today in NZ - hence the lack of me being around.

 

There seem to be a lot of things right at a turning point.

I'm not surprised to see the GBPJPY for example drop.

And I wouldn't be surprised to see gold and silver go up

Did I mention Apocalypse ? :D

 

[Steve Netwriter]

Oh, there is also this COT chart:

 

http://www.softwarenorth.net/cot/current/charts/GC.png

 

[G0ldfinger]

yer impressive!

 

Do you ever trade gold in your BV account to make some profit, goldfinger, or are you strictly buy and hold?

Yeah, just buy and hold. But I try to time my buying somewhat reasonably.

 

Man, these former B&B customers buy lots of the yellow stuff really! Something seems to have scared them.

[frizzers]

Thanks, Steve. Just the one I wanted.

[G0ldfinger]

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...t&p=1147037

all_ears post Today, 01:09 PM

QUOTE (Lepista @ Jun 2 2008, 01:35 PM) *

(4) They can just change the rules. Yup, that's right - if a number of banks went down, and the government were truly not able to bail everybody out, then guess what? they wouldn't. They might, for instance, offer to pay 10% of everyones fund... or nothing. if it got that bad.

Thanks for scaring me. Being such a sage can you offer practical advice for protecting savings? I know nothing about shares etc. I have approx £40k - £12k in ISAs and the rest in an e-save account (Barclays) soon moving it to Kaupthingy. I seem to be going round in circles... huh.gif

 

This is so funny! Maybe someone who still posts over at HPC wants to enlighten all_ears. If he/she is just shifting around fiat currency from one turd bank into another, it won't help. He/she should go for REAL default-risk free money.

 

[alexreeve]

soon moving it to Kaupthingy

What could be safer than an Icelandic bank?

 

[lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!)]

Thanks for scaring me. Being such a sage can you offer practical advice for protecting savings? I know nothing about shares etc. I have approx £40k - £12k in ISAs and the rest in an e-save account (Barclays) soon moving it to Kaupthingy. I seem to be going round in circles... huh.gif

 

This is so funny! Maybe someone who still posts over at HPC wants to enlighten all_ears. If he/she is just shifting around fiat currency from one turd bank into another, it won't help. He/she should go for REAL default-risk free money.

 

I need to speed up the transfer out of paper money.

 

[G0ldfinger]

The German Federal goverment, the states and its councils have together debts of EUR 1,553,100,000,000. That is EUR 18,880 per person.

 

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/...,557182,00.html

Staatsschulden steigen auf 1.553.100.000.000 Euro an

 

Die Verschuldung von Bund, Ländern und Gemeinden steigt immer weiter, allen Sparmaßnahmen zum Trotz: zum Jahreswechsel waren es mehr als eineinhalb Billionen Euro. Jeder Bundesbürger steht demnach mit durchschnittlich 18.880 Euro in der Kreide.

[G0ldfinger]

What could be safer than an Icelandic bank?

Yes. Someone please help him and put him out of his misery.

(Be careful using the g... word over there, though.)

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...t&p=1147037

[Magpie]

Yes and there was an excellent response that went some thing like this:

 

if 100 years ago you had a basket of currencies, a pound,a franc a dollar etc it would have been allot of money back then. But look how much they would be worth now.

 

With the same money you could have bought a few ounces of gold and look at the value of that now.

 

An excellent illustration of how all currencies have and will be inflated away.

 

But if you had chosen cash you would presumably have had the sense to put it in an interest account.

 

Inflation over the last hundred years has devalued currency by a factor of about 80-100.

Gold has only increased in value by about a factor of 45. Possibly an argument that it's undervalued now, but not a great store of value over that period.

You could match the increase in gold's value so long as you had your cash in an account paying 4% pa (and so long as the bank didn't go under or currency collapse, of course). You could have matched inflation, and outperformed gold by a factor of 2, with an account paying 5% pa. Or with any other investment strategy that paid a steady 5% return.

 

I think the argument for gold as insurance looks better than the argument for gold as a store of wealth, to be honest.

[alexreeve]

Yes. Someone please help him and put him out of his misery.

(Be careful using the g... word over there, though.)

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...t&p=1147037

 

I have pointed him in the direction of the HPC Investment sub-forum.

 

Are your posting priveleges removed? CGNAOs latest post was moved off the main page in record time (although to be fair it was a pointless post, there are no shortage of those allowed to die in their own time on the main forum)

[UpTheKhyber]

But if you had chosen cash you would presumably have had the sense to put it in an interest account.

 

Inflation over the last hundred years has devalued currency by a factor of about 80-100.

Gold has only increased in value by about a factor of 45. Possibly an argument that it's undervalued now, but not a great store of value over that period.

You could match the increase in gold's value so long as you had your cash in an account paying 4% pa (and so long as the bank didn't go under or currency collapse, of course). You could have matched inflation, and outperformed gold by a factor of 2, with an account paying 5% pa. Or with any other investment strategy that paid a steady 5% return.

 

I think the argument for gold as insurance looks better than the argument for gold as a store of wealth, to be honest.

I'd say that's proof it's been a pretty good preserver of wealth over the very long term. Considering we're supposed to be 8 years into a 15 year upward cycle it looks like gold has pretty much kept parity over the long term. It does however show that physical gold isn't a wealth creator in the long term, which is what one would expect: you've got to speculate to accumulate

[Magpie]

I'd say that's proof it's been a pretty good preserver of wealth over the very long term. Considering we're supposed to be 8 years into a 15 year upward cycle it looks like gold has pretty much kept parity over the long term. It does however show that physical gold isn't a wealth creator in the long term, which is what one would expect: you've got to speculate to accumulate

 

Yeah, it's been OK, but there have been plenty of other strategies that would have done far better over the last century. Just seems worth pointing that out when people make a comparison with fiat - the point being that no-one who is serious about preserving wealth puts a shoebox of currency under the bed, they do something with the money, even if it's only to put it in a bank.

 

The next few years will be interesting, of course, and might be the moment when gold as insurance policy comes into its own.

 

[wren]

Yeah, it's been OK, but there have been plenty of other strategies that would have done far better over the last century. Just seems worth pointing that out when people make a comparison with fiat - the point being that no-one who is serious about preserving wealth puts a shoebox of currency under the bed, they do something with the money, even if it's only to put it in a bank.

 

The next few years will be interesting, of course, and might be the moment when gold as insurance policy comes into its own.

Yes, but it depends where you are in long economic cycles. When gold backed paper currencies, it was basically cash itself, and helped dampen paper currency inflation.

 

Of course, 1980 to 1999 gold wasn't just a bad investment it was a bad store of wealth. But now it is back in a bull market. Plus it's an insurance policy.

 

But sure, it isn't always good.

 

[Magpie]

Yes, but it depends where you are in long economic cycles.

 

Very true - I suppose my key point was just that in judging stores of wealth, you need to compare the performance of gold against invested cash, not against cash itself.

 

But I know many here see gold as an insurance rather than an investment, which is fair enough. And if the bull market continues then we may be in a period when gold does well as a store also.

 

[drbubb]

PROOF-READER WANTED !

==================

 

If anyone has some spare time, can you help out ??

 

I have just finished the final draft for might next article for Financial Sense.

I will call it:

FIGHTING THE FEAR : Preventing a meltdown in OTC Derivatives

The Problem may be smaller than you think, but that may not Matter.

 

Link: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=3101

 

 

(It is quite long, all contained in post #1)

 

I plan to post it on FS tomorrow. I decided to sleep on it overnight, and seee how it read

in the morning.

 

If anyone has some spare time, could you proof-read it, and see if you can spot any typos.

Comments on the article are welcome to. You will see that there is a special thread for comments

[UpTheKhyber]

Very true - I suppose my key point was just that in judging stores of wealth, you need to compare the performance of gold against invested cash, not against cash itself.

 

But I know many here see gold as an insurance rather than an investment, which is fair enough. And if the bull market continues then we may be in a period when gold does well as a store also.

I'm sure you already appreciate this, but 'store' and 'invest' are different things. 'Confusion' between these terms is what led us to fractional reserve banking (aka legalised forgery) in the first place .

I agree sticking a load of fiat paper under the mattress isn't a fair comparison with sticking gold under a floorboard. Mind you, I'd place a bet that gold is a better long-term preserver of wealth than your average savings account.

[wren]

If anyone has some spare time, could you proof-read it, and see if you can spot any typos.

Comments on the article are welcome to. You will see that there is a special thread for comments

I can do a proof-read and post comments in the following thread (the open thread on the article) in a couple of hours :

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....=3102&st=20

 

It's easiest if I track edits in MS word and send the file. Is that okay?

 

[wheelybin]

Latest from the vault...

 

 

 

[wheelybin]

Looks from the Bullionvault information as though there's a continuing steady rise in their gold.... the rise tailing off a little if anything.

 

Strange how the amount of cash that the 46,000 users have on hand corresponds so closely to the price of gold. I'd guess that's buying occuring on dips.

 

Also, the distribution of cash has moved away from pounds towards euros. Seems like Brits have been buying gold or withdrawing cash, while Europeans have either been selling or charging their accounts. I'm going to go out on a limb here and guess it's the buying and charging option.

 

Any thoughts?

 

W.

[Magpie]

I'm sure you already appreciate this, but 'store' and 'invest' are different things. 'Confusion' between these terms is what led us to fractional reserve banking (aka legalised forgery) in the first place .

 

Not sure about that. Surely it's the lending of money at interest that is really at the heart of a lot of these issues. Usury in other words. Which is why fractional reserve banking works (from a bankers point of view).

 

I'm not as bothered by fractional reserves and fiat as some people here. I think all monetary systems have flaws, and need wise and careful regulation. Which is what we have lacked in recent decades.