romans holiday Posted June 23, 2008 Report Share Posted June 23, 2008 Groovy, best stock up on some more Hope it stays down, can't buy another decent stash until August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbear Posted June 23, 2008 Report Share Posted June 23, 2008 Silver just lost the best part of a buck/Oz. It coincided exactly with the opening of the New York market. But the $ is mostly down today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobsta Posted June 23, 2008 Report Share Posted June 23, 2008 Blimey, that was a quick move. Looks $ related to me. Possibly a renewed effrot to support the dollar after failing to get the oil price down with supply? Oil being bashed (relatively) ... so maybe. Let's just see how far it bounces back. I note Bloomberg have just pulled this article: Gold May Gain in London as Oil Spurs Demand for Inflation Hedge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted June 23, 2008 Report Share Posted June 23, 2008 Looks to me like the pattern following the spike in June 2006 is repeating. After the spike the price was very volatile for half a year. The price then stabilized and steadily moved up to the previous spike price for the next half of the year before taking of again for the spike we had this year in March. Just my hunch. I am no chartist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobsta Posted June 23, 2008 Report Share Posted June 23, 2008 Just my hunch. I am no chartist. I'm no chartist either ... and whilst now looks like a great buying opportunity (and I have) ... I'm concerned that ~895-~898 ish was seen as a support level and we've clearly smashed down through it. If a move to $850 is on the cards I may have to re-think my position. I'm praying for a push back through to $900 by the end of play today which would be hugely bullish IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted June 23, 2008 Author Report Share Posted June 23, 2008 WTF? Is someone big going bankrupt and being liquidated? A hedge fund? A commercial bank? Spain? Or is it a desperate last stand of the shorts? EDIT: Seems this was a genuine gold move. Yes, the EUR went down as well, but in a much different pattern. My guesses therefore, it was either: (1) Plain stupidity (this includes commercial bank shorting & central bank selling). (2) Someone who is going bankrupt. (3) A brainless blackbox (i.e. equivalent to (1)). IMO, someone big is desperate, especially since OIL IS NOT GOING DOWN after the Jeddah chatter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted June 23, 2008 Report Share Posted June 23, 2008 Looks to me the support level has been 860-870 for the past two months. I remember, I think it was Goldseek radio, saying they thought the support level was 850. I think we will continue to see these swings for a while until the price settles on the way towards the previous spike at 1000. But this may take a good few months to achieve. The dollar won't give up without a fight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobsta Posted June 23, 2008 Report Share Posted June 23, 2008 I've got Bloomberg TV on in the background... some interesting comments this morning... Some (stock) trader: "I was looking for a big upmove in stocks following last week's battering. Gold & Silver sold off heavily a short time ago so I'm even more confident now that we'll see a big move, hopefully in financials." Reporter: Fed meeting this week. Concensus serveys show 90% opting for a HOLD from the Fed. Me: WTF is the dollar rallying when everyone's expecting a hold. Guys - you have NEGATIVE real interest rates!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattFC Posted June 23, 2008 Report Share Posted June 23, 2008 I've got Bloomberg TV on in the background... some interesting comments this morning... Some (stock) trader: "I was looking for a big upmove in stocks following last week's battering. Gold & Silver sold off heavily a short time ago so I'm even more confident now that we'll see a big move, hopefully in financials." Reporter: Fed meeting this week. Concensus serveys show 90% opting for a HOLD from the Fed. Me: WTF is the dollar rallying when everyone's expecting a hold. Guys - you have NEGATIVE real interest rates!! Talk of forced liquidation in gold helping the dollar Dealers note talk that forced liquidation is underway in the gold market with a hedge fund supposedly being sold out on a margin call. The metal is down $22.50 at $881. Oil has turned down in sympathy. EUR/USD fell into the mid 1.5470s but so far is hanging onto important support around 1.5460/65. Large stops are rumored below that level. Update: Sources attribute rising margin requirements in energy futures are responsible for the sell-off in gold. They are selling gold to meet fresh requirements in oil, in all likelihood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted June 23, 2008 Author Report Share Posted June 23, 2008 ... Me: WTF is the dollar rallying when everyone's expecting a hold. Guys - you have NEGATIVE real interest rates!! Just let them get wiped out if they enjoy it so much. OK, I preserved the moment for the afterworld. Since this happened in NY (I suppose), it is possibly not a European central bank that is dumping here. EDIT: Dealers note talk that forced liquidation is underway in the gold market with a hedge fund supposedly being sold out on a margin call. ... Yes, that's what I would guess from here. It looks very 'unnatural'. EDIT2: On the other hand, one would expect a liquidator to sell a little bit more careful, and not in such a brainless manner. But what do I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobsta Posted June 23, 2008 Report Share Posted June 23, 2008 Talk of forced liquidation in gold helping the dollar Dealers note talk that forced liquidation is underway in the gold market with a hedge fund supposedly being sold out on a margin call. The metal is down $22.50 at $881. Oil has turned down in sympathy. EUR/USD fell into the mid 1.5470s but so far is hanging onto important support around 1.5460/65. Large stops are rumored below that level. Update: Sources attribute rising margin requirements in energy futures are responsible for the sell-off in gold. They are selling gold to meet fresh requirements in oil, in all likelihood. Excellent find - thanks Matt. To me this is hugely bullish.... it means the sell-off wasn't driven by fundamentals/technicals or anything the should, by rights, affect the PoG. Whether the rest of the market will see it that way remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sossij Posted June 23, 2008 Report Share Posted June 23, 2008 Excellent find - thanks Matt. To me this is hugely bullish.... it means the sell-off wasn't driven by fundamentals/technicals or anything the should, by rights, affect the PoG. Whether the rest of the market will see it that way remains to be seen. Excellent! Must grab some cheap gold BTW has anyone noticed that transfers to BullionVault happen within 24 hours these days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woody Posted June 23, 2008 Report Share Posted June 23, 2008 I'm no chartist either ... and whilst now looks like a great buying opportunity (and I have) ... I'm concerned that ~895-~898 ish was seen as a support level and we've clearly smashed down through it. If a move to $850 is on the cards I may have to re-think my position. I'm praying for a push back through to $900 by the end of play today which would be hugely bullish IMHO. We punched down through support at $885 but bounced off the up-trend we set quite recently. That is healthy but the rest of the day is key. I'd be far happier if we closed above $890. The concern right now is that whilst we bounced, it does look to be rolling over. If we dip back below $875 I'll worry. Nevertheless, I bought some silver CFDs (at $16.70) for the bounce as I feel the downside is limited from here and all the fundamentals point the other way to this move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexreeve Posted June 23, 2008 Report Share Posted June 23, 2008 The thread sub-title is uncannily appropriate 23 days into the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted June 23, 2008 Report Share Posted June 23, 2008 Just logged in to my account and what the hell? I can't see any reason for this sell-off at all. I mean, the euro dropped but not THAT far, and oil is up on the day and threatening to go for $140. All in all this has to be the most bonkers move I've seen in gold in ages. You just don't get a $25 plunge in a matter of minutes for no reason. I'm buying again, but I have to say my confidence is totally shot to pieces. It seems you just can't win in gold at the moment. Never mind, at least I wasn't in heavily at the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted June 23, 2008 Report Share Posted June 23, 2008 Just logged in to my account and what the hell? I can't see any reason for this sell-off at all. I mean, the euro dropped but not THAT far, and oil is up on the day and threatening to go for $140. Worry not Marceau: its just noise in an environment of high volatility for gold. That's exactly what is needed for gold to be able to have equally dramatic lurches upwards. I fully expect a partial recovery today, and then a big jump up on US openning tomorrow - betcha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted June 23, 2008 Report Share Posted June 23, 2008 Worry not Marceau: its just noise in an environment of high volatility for gold. That's exactly what is needed for gold to be able to have equally dramatic lurches upwards. I fully expect a partial recovery today, and then a big jump up on US openning tomorrow - betcha! I do hope so, and I've gone long a number of contracts again today. But that drop was just stunning, so totally unnatural. I'd expected a pullback and was ready to buy at around the $990 and $885 levels, but for gold to plunge through support without even a pause means a massive, massive seller just hit the market. I agree with what goldfinger said in that they were either too stupid to cover their tracks or had been forced into selling, but there is of course another option - that the seller had already built their short position and was purposefully revealing their hand to the market. I really hope this last option wasn't the case or gold is really going to tank over the next month or so. Personally I think it was forced selling, no sane big money player would dump gold under these economic circumstances, but today's closing level really is crucial to gold's medium term future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woody Posted June 23, 2008 Report Share Posted June 23, 2008 Personally I think it was forced selling, no sane big money player would dump gold under these economic circumstances, but today's closing level really is crucial to gold's medium term future. Looking into this a bit more, the suggestion seems to be that it was a forced sale to cover a margin call on oil. That makes sense if you think of what went on at the weekend and the (daft in my opinion) expectation that Saudi would pull a rabbit out the hat and oil would fall today. That backfired and any short would have been squeezed. Dumping gold (and silver) at the open could have provided the funding but, like you say, it would have needed to be a big position. The only thing that doesn't fit with that is that immediately gold traded off, oil dropped a couple of dollars for no more than a few minutes before rebounding. Can we put that down to a sympathy move? I've also seen talk that it was general selling to unwind a hedge against the falling dollar but that sounds like wishful thinking to me and the speed of the move doesn't fit. The behaviour since the move has been pretty positive. After the move down in a single move, both gold and silver have been generally gaining ground. Silver has been stronger but then it fell 5% vs gold's 2%. Hopefully that'll continue although gold is not keen to trade above $885. I'm fully long, weighted mostly to silver, and have taken a small speculative position in silver to try and benefit from the bounce which I hope will come over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobsta Posted June 23, 2008 Report Share Posted June 23, 2008 So do you not buy the "hedge fund receives margin call and has to dump gold longs" story Marceau? It'd be great to understand if any brokers have disclosed that they've raised margin requirements for commodities. If the rumours are true gold could effectively be being "credit crunched" (at least as far as some large trading houses are concerned) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drminky Posted June 23, 2008 Report Share Posted June 23, 2008 Seems the goldstocks are shrugging off this latest move. At least mine are mostly all back in positive territory for the day. And why should they buy it? today so far Oil up Natural Gas up Iron Ore up CRB up Yet we are supposed to believe this is somehow NOT indicative of inflationary pressures weighing on the currency?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gatesy Posted June 23, 2008 Report Share Posted June 23, 2008 These moves are certainly nerve racking when they happen, but something I noticed some time ago, just looking back over the price action of the last couple of years, is that plenty of significant upward price movements which would develop over a at least 2 month periods were immediately preceded by sharp 1 or 2 day price falls often upto about 15% drops. I haven't got a chart postable to hand but look at Sept 06, Dec 06, Feb 07, Aug 07, Dec 07 for examples. These appear to be clear bouts of profit taking with then steady increases following. Certainly these are one of the hallmarks of bullish price action; I keep hoping to see similar here following such large drops ! Edit: talking about Silver here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itinerant Wanderer Posted June 23, 2008 Report Share Posted June 23, 2008 OK, sorry. It was me. I dipped another toe in the water just yesterday. News must have hit the market this a.m. I'll let you guys know in advance next time I'm buying anything. I'll fetch my coat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tinecu Posted June 23, 2008 Report Share Posted June 23, 2008 I bought some more silver today...consider it a gift at this price. I expect a rally tomorrow too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted June 23, 2008 Report Share Posted June 23, 2008 So do you not buy the "hedge fund receives margin call and has to dump gold longs" story Marceau? It'd be great to understand if any brokers have disclosed that they've raised margin requirements for commodities. If the rumours are true gold could effectively be being "credit crunched" (at least as far as some large trading houses are concerned) I honestly don't know what happened today in gold and silver, and I suspect that only way we'll find out if the move was fluff or substance is to wait and see what comes next. Only the market's action over the next few days will give clues as to what really went on. On the subject of margin though, the requirements for players both big and small have been creeping up for the last few months. Couple that with the high LIBOR rate and you have a very sticky situation for a firm caught with big leverage on the wrong side of a trade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!) Posted June 23, 2008 Report Share Posted June 23, 2008 I honestly don't know what happened today in gold and silver, and I suspect that only way we'll find out if the move was fluff or substance is to wait and see what comes next. Only the market's action over the next few days will give clues as to what really went on. On the subject of margin though, the requirements for players both big and small have been creeping up for the last few months. Couple that with the high LIBOR rate and you have a very sticky situation for a firm caught with big leverage on the wrong side of a trade. Always worth reading what Captain Hook has to say IMHO - one of these days i think silver is going to go up faster than when the Hunt brothers cornered the market - just keep buying phsyical and they wont win in the long run Printing like theres no tomorrow The implication here is one of these days, with the increasing amounts of fiat currency necessary to counter a collapsing consumer, a combination of physical buying in gold, along with demand for paper pricing mechanisms, will outstrip all constraints, and the biggest short squeeze in the history of any market will ensue. So make no mistake about it, having a portion of your wealth anchored in precious metals is an absolute financial necessity these days, as this will send gold and silver prices far higher than most can presently contemplate, and in rapid fashion. In the meantime, master planners keep a lid on the situation by monetizing everything that goes wrong, which is evident in the growth of M3 shown below. In the end however, and in classic ironic form, all this liquidity floating around will lead to the demise of the present system of exchange and commerce. (See Figure 3) Further to this, one cannot help but be take back with the degree of detail, depth, and insight found in John William’s recent study on how hyperinflation is unfolding before our very eyes today. As you should know, hyperinflation is an unsustainable monetary / economic condition, and according to John, we are on the cusp of a hyperinflationary depression that will likely end in monetary deflation, barter, and the need for revolutionary reform. As you may know, gold would play a key role in such a reformulation, along the lines of what Antal Fekete describes in his latest. Of course you will not need wait until the present monetary system melts down to witness the virtues associated with owning gold, not with US monetization (phantom money supply) growth rates at the highest levels in recoded history. Here, even the Austrian’s will soon need to admit money supply growth rates are accelerating, as evidenced in True Money Supply (TMS), commodities, and gold. (See Figure 4) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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