GOLD

[wrongmove]

I really would be very grateful for some analysis on the above folks

 

Come on dude!

 

If you can't work that one out for yourself, you probably shouldn't be allowed a cheque book!! ;)

[Bobsta]

Genuine question folks

 

given that the pound is falling againts the dollar...

 

How much has gold fallen in value in uk pounds?

 

Is it as much as seems to be the case in terms of the price of gold in dollars?

 

Or, has the fall in the price of gold in pounds been less than would at first appear in dollar terms?

See Frizzers' latest MoneyWeek article - bottom chart:

 

[Chubbs]

I am trying to work out some rough numbers in relation to my question. does anyone know what the exchange rate was between the dollar and pound on the 4th of August?

 

Been doing the same thing tonight :-) You can download forex exchange rate data free here:

http://www.forexdata.biz/index.php?action=free

[stevecook172001]

Am i talking sh*t or has gold gone up in value in UK pounds over the time frame shown in the table below?

[Chubbs]

Going back 2 years, the chart shows nicely the $ and £ have been falling together relative to the euro - now the dollar is rising against the euro and the pound falling relative to the dollar

 

 

Probably now need to compare the three of them relative to a more stable currency, but afraid I've got work tomorrow so it'll have to wait!

 

<edit> and yes, gold has indeed seemed to gain in value (£) thanks to the currency tanking - hence the temptation to bail out!

[Bobsta]

I am trying to work out some rough numbers in relation to my question. does anyone know what the exchange rate was between the dollar and pound on the 4th of August?

Ahem. I think I agree with wrongmove - that sort of data is available pretty much anywhere on the net.

 

Anyway, save yourself the trouble and just plot a gold chart in GBP. There's an easy one at Bullionvault - http://www.bullionvault.com/gold-price-chart.do

(you'll need to pick GBP and your time period)

 

Or a more complex one at StockCharts - http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html...;GOLD:$XBP

 

 

[stevecook172001]

Ahem. I think I agree with wrongmove - that sort of data is available pretty much anywhere on the net.

 

Anyway, save yourself the trouble and just plot a gold chart in GBP. There's an easy one at Bullionvault - http://www.bullionvault.com/gold-price-chart.do

(you'll need to pick GBP and your time period)

 

Or a more complex one at StockCharts - http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html...;GOLD:$XBP

hi bobsta

 

Just done a quick calc

 

gold has indeed risen in value overt the course of august in UK pound terms

 

 

 

[stevecook172001]

the percentage change in the value of gold in both dollars and pounds is in the table below for August

[Compounded]

I admit I use the term goldbug loosely

 

Like many on here, but not generally worldwide, I am currently a gold bull.

If a goldbug implies always holding gold, then I might stay one, but only to a small percentage, say 5%. I can see sensible reasons for maintaining that small insurance, just in case.

 

Holding none implies a 100% faith in what you have. IMO that is a questionable position.

 

Edited to add: By the way, the number of contrarian posts on this forum indicates a bottom

 

Well it should but I think we have mega manipulation by powerful financial institutions and we dont know what they will do, fundamentals will out - eventually - I suppose the key thing is how much time you have.

 

 

Precisely. Gold is a store of value. I'm not buying it as an investment.

 

I think the manipulation is important - the longer it goes on the bigger the eventual breakout should be and the greater the transfer of wealth to gold holders will be, mind you I am still keeping my day job. If I lose that the odds are the system will be in such a bad shape gold will gain value - I suppose that's the insurance part of gold holding.

 

 

When the Dollar falls, gold most likely will go up again. And it will go up more than the Dollar falls.

 

Remember in the 70's bull a 50% correction happened just a few years before the gold bubble - that must have been truly terrifying at the time for goldbugs.

 

Volatility - we ain't seen nothing yet IMO.

 

 

Genuine question folks

 

given that the pound is falling againts the dollar...

 

How much has gold fallen in value in uk pounds?

 

Is it as much as seems to be the case in terms of the price of gold in dollars?

 

Or, has the fall in the price of gold in pounds been less than would at first appear in dollar terms?

 

I saw a kruger in a York shop for sale at £400 in December spot is now £450 - we UK gold holders have nothing to complain about.

 

[stevecook172001]

Well it should but I think we have mega manipulation by powerful financial institutions and we dont know what they will do, fundamentals will out - eventually - I suppose the key thing is how much time you have.

 

 

 

 

I think the manipulation is important - the longer it goes on the bigger the eventual breakout should be and the greater the transfer of wealth to gold holders will be, mind you I am still keeping my day job. If I lose that the odds are the system will be in such a bad shape gold will gain value - I suppose that's the insurance part of gold holding.

 

 

 

 

Remember in the 70's bull a 50% correction happened just a few years before the gold bubble - that must have been truly terrifying at the time for goldbugs.

 

Volatility - we ain't seen nothing yet IMO.

 

 

 

 

I saw a kruger in a York shop for sale at £400 in December spot is now £450 - we UK gold holders have nothing to complain about.

Are you Yorkie compounded?

 

I'm from York

[wrongmove]

I saw a kruger in a York shop for sale at £400 in December spot is now £450 - we UK gold holders have nothing to complain about.

 

I like the irony of gold being used as a cable hedge.

 

 

Buy gold. It protects you from a rising dollar!!

 

 

 

[Compounded]

Are you Yorkie compounded?

 

I'm from York

 

Other side of the river.

 

[Steve Netwriter]

Good contrarian arguments would be good. I just haven't seen any yet. All the points so far are such weak straw men they are not worthy of reply.

And given that replies to such attempts at contrarian replies are met with no proper reply, what's the point.

 

Steve Cook,

You have obviously missed the charts I posted the other day.

Just for you I will re-post them

 

 

 

 

 

Maybe a contrarian would like to answer this simple question.

What should someone with NZ$ have done back in Aug 2007, other than buy gold/silver ?

Gold up from NZ$850 to NZ$1200. That's 41% in 1 year.

 

[stevecook172001]

Thanks for those steve.

 

Very informative

[wren]

I really would be very grateful for some analysis on the above folks

Well, I haven't read the rest of the thread so, forgive me if I repeat.

 

In pounds, like most currencies other than US$, the drop in the gold price recently has been much less severe than it looks on the US$ graph.

 

I am in the Eurozone and it's been down a fair bit in euros but much less than in US dollars. Same in pounds and looking today even more the same, i.e. Sterling suffering worse than others.

 

Strange business. I choose to keep most of my savings in the form of precious metals, rather than euros (my local currency). But did one ever worry so much having, like, pounds or euros or dollars in the bank?

 

Who was the Dickensian character who was surprised to learn that he had only ever spoken prose? Well, it might sound like a strange suggestion, but who speaks only in pounds or dollars or euros?

 

I sleep with less worry having my cash in precious metal form.

 

You can check gold and silver prices in the various major currencies here (I set it to GBP):

http://www.24hgold.com/english/gold_silver...x?money=GBPound

[wren]

Here's a rather young Abba singing "Ring, ring" in Swedish:

Cheer up, folks.

 

[G0ldfinger]

Gold in Turdling since 1985:

 

 

 

[Steve Netwriter]

From the article I mentioned yesterday:

 

 

 

from:

 

WHAT I TELL MYSELF WHEN GOLD SELLS OFF

- The Casey Files -

by Jeff Clark

Editor, BIG GOLD from Casey Research

August 29, 2008

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/c.../2008/0829.html

 

 

And a reminder of a prediction chart that JS approved. It's worth noting because of the large pull-backs.

Gold/silver do not go up without falling back. That's why you either need to be very good on your timing, or know from the start that it's a long-term thing.

 

 

[Compounded]

Gold in Turdling since 1985:

 

It's a shame the most long lived currency in history - sterling deserves the name turdling.

 

No currency the Romans, Greeks or Egyptians have has come remotely near in terms of staying power

 

Are we really going to allow it to be destroyed it for the sake of the USA a collection of old colonies that have become money mad?

 

I guess the die is now cast.

[Steve Netwriter]

I hope this makes the point about psychology.

It's often best to sell when you are happy, and buy when you feel everything is lost.

 

 

This is why you will often hear someone on the podcasts saying "most of the articles being written are bearish, which is very bullish".

 

Of course at some time the bull will end. Then you need to become bearish before everyone else.

My hope is that I can turn bearish, and probably become very unpopular on here in doing so, at the right time

 

As JS has said "when I say sell, sell - but I know no one will".

 

 

[wren]

Ive been wondering about that too, but how much of the change in £/$ is due to the falling pound and how much is due to the strengthening dollar. The more it is down to the dollar, the more I expect gold to amplify the dollars fall in gains, when it does eventually fall back. But if its more down to sterling falling, then if that strengthens us brits will have big 'paper' losses (bigger than my current losses).

I bought most of my position in January and have been buying bits and pieces since then at varying prices and am currently sitting here with a loss... wishing Id put the money in the bank, at least until now, but hope to be proved right, sooner rather than later

You need to ask yourself whether you believe in the fundamentals and whether you see them still to be good.

 

If not, maybe you should leave the market.

 

If so, expect to be battered from time to time.

 

This ain't for pussies.

 

[Compounded]

From the article I mentioned yesterday:

 

 

 

from:

 

WHAT I TELL MYSELF WHEN GOLD SELLS OFF

- The Casey Files -

by Jeff Clark

Editor, BIG GOLD from Casey Research

August 29, 2008

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/c.../2008/0829.html

 

 

And a reminder of a prediction chart that JS approved. It's worth noting because of the large pull-backs.

Gold/silver do not go up without falling back. That's why you either need to be very good on your timing, or know from the start that it's a long-term thing.

 

 

There is a long grinding it must at the time for people with our mindset have been excrutiating 50% correction from late 74 to late/mid 76 it's not pointed out on the graph - I am prepared for that to repeat because I am convinced of the fundamentals.

 

If this repeats we will have a steadily falling price for nearly a year, bottoming at not much above $500 before heading to $4000.

 

This is not going to be easy I think only the most committed will win big.

[mattyboy]

There is a long grinding it must at the time for people with our mindset have been excrutiating 50% correction from late 74 to late/mid 76 it's not pointed out on the graph - I am prepared for that to repeat because I am convinced of the fundamentals.

 

If this repeats we will have a steadily falling price for nearly a year, bottoming at not much above $500 before heading to $4000.

 

This is not going to be easy I think only the most committed will win big.

 

I'm not sure I could get through that

What are your thoguhts on Juniors? I have a few, I think a number of them might die if what you describe above comes to pass..

[Compounded]

I'm not sure I could get through that

What are your thoguhts on Juniors? I have a few, I think a number of them might die if what you describe above comes to pass..

 

I am no expert on junior miners Dr Bubb is and it sounds like a full time job just to know a few, I just looked at he graph of the last gold bull and could see it's not easy to ride, the volatility just makes it very difficult to ride.

 

I am certain we are in a gold bull - I think it will remain a gold bull until inflation is reported correctly and interest rates are higher than the real inflation rate.

 

Trouble is there is so much debt they cannot raise interest rates to the levels needed without crashing the economy.

 

So it's a mess and that sort of mess is bullish for gold.

[Steve Netwriter]

If this repeats we will have a steadily falling price for nearly a year, bottoming at not much above $500 before heading to $4000.

 

This is not going to be easy I think only the most committed will win big.

 

Well said

 

I am reminded of this post I did on 15th Mar 2008:

 

Guys,

I've been talking about gold for ages now.

But in the last couple of days it's hit the mainstream media.

 

This will undoubtedly draw in people to buying gold who have not done it before.

People who may not have much experience in investing.

 

I thought I'd better post this on a new thread as IMO it's important.

 

If you buy gold now, you have to be prepared for the price to drop.

 

It is common for novice investors to get nervous/scared and sell on a dip and lose money.

 

If you buy, you must be prepared for that, and hold your nerve.

 

The last thing you want to do is lose your money to the gold manipulation cartel.

 

If there is a dip (a big if), it will rebound quickly. This is only the start of a long bull market in gold.

 

Please, if you buy, just hold.

Steve