GOLD

[frizzers]

Gold back down again today. $15 at time of writing.

[CIGA]

Gold back down again today. $15 at time of writing.

 

It hurts.. I don't even bother looking at my portfolio any more, only now and then to make sure one of my companies hasn't actually failed.

 

I'm starting to think we could be waiting a while for a comeback.. like post US elections.

 

It is unbeievable how sound fundamentals are reflected like this..

 

Definitely a tough time . . like Eric King andf Jim Puplava say, go kick a football, turn your screen off, don't look now look later, we are STILL in the primary trend (for now).

 

 

[Justin Thyme]

Are the CBs capable of moving the worlds biggest currency by 10%? I somehow doubt it. Why hasn't the market "done a Soros"?

 

er . . . in the short-term, evidently so.

 

Inflation running at 5+% and interest rates at 2% and printing presses running at the whim of the government. The market hasn't done a Soros as you put it because the dollar isn't sterling. It is the world's reserve currency and China, Russia and the OPEC nations hold an awful lot of it. Admittedly, gold bulls haven't had things run their way but the dollar's position is precarious enough to to be prone to suffering a collapse at the slightest provocation.

 

 

 

[hotairmail]

I hold by the view that until gold regains its role as money as opposed to its commodityness, it will always be the tail wagged by the $ dog. And the commodity of preference for $ buyers and sellers is clearly oil - with gold a distant second.

 

If this is the case as I suspect, then articles like the one below which I received by email from uSwitch simply has to have some effect on peoples' behaviours this coming winter.

 

 

 

A new report by uSwitch has revealed that disposable income has dropped for the first time since 1997 in cash terms. UK households are £2,500 worse off this year compared to 2007.

 

Driving this drop is the huge increases in essential living costs which has left households being forced to find an extra £145 a month to cover rising bills.

[wrongmove]

er . . . in the short-term, evidently so.

 

Inflation running at 5+% and interest rates at 2% and printing presses running at the whim of the government. The market hasn't done a Soros as you put it because the dollar isn't sterling. It is the world's reserve currency and China, Russia and the OPEC nations hold an awful lot of it. Admittedly, gold bulls haven't had things run their way but the dollar's position is precarious enough to to be prone to suffering a collapse at the slightest provocation.

 

Where is your evidence for this? BoE are shutting down SLS, for example.

 

There is no evidence of Zimbabwe style printed cash to pay wages, just the usual monetary expansion through debt. And apetite for debt has fallen of a cliff in many sectors. People are deleveraging, it seems to me. Selling assets, generating cash. Much simpler explanation, so in the absence of compelling evidence for some sort of global, leak-free conspiracy, by Occam's razor, the one I am choosing.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[romans holiday]

Wasn't there some murmurings out of OPEC that they would likely defend $100 a barrel with supply cutbacks? If so, any spike low below that could be short lived indeed.. that should help put a floor on gold prices, you'd hope, but as mental and irrational as the markets are right now, nothing would surprise me anymore

 

I rekon we are seeing a deflation scare in the markets at the moment. When we see the next inflation scare... that will be something else... not so much irrational but schizophrenic.

[wrongmove]

I rekon we are seeing a deflation scare in the markets at the moment. When we see the next inflation scare... that will be something else... not so much irrational but schizophrenic.

 

When markets are irrational, only the irrational make money. Best to get used to it, I guess.

 

 

 

[G0ldfinger]

A hedge fund closing.

...

One of the more famouse ones...

[G0ldfinger]

http://goldismoney.info/forums/showpost.ph...postcount=17233

Bill,

In the September 1 session on the TOCOM Goldman Sachs COVERED 276 short contracts to bring their net short position to 4,500 contracts. This is a NEW RECORD LOW for their net short position. Remember this is an investment bank that told its clients to sell gold as they predicted gold was going to $740/oz. All they have done for their own account is to keep covering. Where are the regulators?

I think this is a very good indication of what gold will do next!

[romans holiday]

When markets are irrational, only the irrational make money. Best to get used to it, I guess.

 

I do not mind. No skin of my nose. Quite comical really. Thinking ship of fools.

 

Edit: But I disagree that only the irrational make money. I suspect a lot of people will lose a lot of money before the present circus we call a market is over.

[drbubb]

From a Skype chat less than a hour ago...

 

A says: Hi. Gold just fallen off a cliff again today

 

B says: no big deal at $793- this is just the Asian and European chnace at yesterday's prices

Let's see what NY does with a smaller gap down today

 

B says: I like the charts here, especially XAU

What we are seeing is the deleveraging - exit of Hedge Funds from the commodities play

 

Once stability is reached, there will be one-way traffic. All buying

== ==

 

Weak oil isn't helping much.

But Gold is trying to decouple from weak Oil.

Here's and indication, it may be starting to work

 

 

Notice how the moving average of the Ratio has turned upwards.

Gold looks pretty well supported here

 

[Steve Netwriter]

http://goldismoney.info/forums/showpost.ph...postcount=17233

 

Thanks for the reminder GF. I must put that in my diary

 

 

[romans holiday]

From a Skype chat less than a hour ago...

 

A says: Hi. Gold just fallen off a cliff again today

 

B says: no big deal at $793- this is just the Asian and European chnace at yesterday's prices

Let's see what NY does with a smaller gap down today

 

B says: I like the charts here, especially XAU

What we are seeing is the deleveraging - exit of Hedge Funds from the commodities play

 

Once stability is reached, there will be one-way traffic. All buying

== ==

 

Weak oil isn't helping much.

But Gold is trying to decouple from weak Oil.Here's and indication, it may be starting to work

 

 

Notice how the moving average of the Ratio has turned upwards.

Gold looks pretty well supported here

 

chart

Also looking forward to the day gold decouples from the dollar and loses its title as the "anti-dollar".

 

Edit: Not taking the mickey.

[Steve Netwriter]

This article is my reply to all those non-goldbugs, especially those that have a tendency to talk about huge drops, but only in the dips, and somehow avoid posting any charts to see what has happened before.

 

WHAT I TELL MYSELF WHEN GOLD SELLS OFF

- The Casey Files -

by Jeff Clark

Editor, BIG GOLD from Casey Research

August 29, 2008

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/c.../2008/0829.html

 

I interviewed Doug Casey earlier this month and heard the textbook description of a contrarian investor. Doug was reminiscing about how hard it was to get clients to buy gold and gold stocks in the mid-‘70s, how a client even refused to pay for gold stocks he’d just bought, and how the prospects for gold looked bleak to nearly everyone. What did one of the greatest speculators of all time advise?

 

“You don’t make money buying when you’re optimistic. You have to actually run completely counter to your own emotional psychology. It’s easy to talk about being smart in theory, but extremely tough to apply in practice when it’s real money and you’re scared. But what am I doing now? I’m buying.”

 

What do I tell myself? “$800 gold is nothing but a buying opportunity. Grab some cash, Jeff, and head to the local coin dealer while it’s still on the SALE! rack.”

 

I think it says everything, so I don't need to say any more.

[UpTheKhyber]

Where is your evidence for this? BoE are shutting down SLS, for example.

 

There is no evidence of Zimbabwe style printed cash to pay wages, just the usual monetary expansion through debt. And apetite for debt has fallen of a cliff in many sectors. People are deleveraging, it seems to me. Selling assets, generating cash. Much simpler explanation, so in the absence of compelling evidence for some sort of global, leak-free conspiracy, by Occam's razor, the one I am choosing.

 

I believe it's more a question of not extending SLS rather than getting rid of it.

 

The bank may be making hawkish now but, as far as I can see, if house prices continue to tank the BoE will either have to continue accepting more mark-to-model shite on its books and devalue the currency, or face a major bank insolvency crisis. Unless of course our creditor nations decide that we make better wage slaves than defaulters and inject our banks with yet more sovereign wealth fund Soma.

 

Inflation or deflation, doesn't really matter. I'd still rather be holding a pot of gold than a pile of promises right now.

[drbubb]

MORE History on the Oil-to-Gold ratio:

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=4147

[romans holiday]

This article is my reply to all those non-goldbugs, especially those that have a tendency to talk about huge drops, but only in the dips, and somehow avoid posting any charts to see what has happened before.

 

WHAT I TELL MYSELF WHEN GOLD SELLS OFF

- The Casey Files -

by Jeff Clark

Editor, BIG GOLD from Casey Research

August 29, 2008

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/c.../2008/0829.html

 

 

 

I think it says everything, so I don't need to say any more.

 

Even those who have no opinions whatsoever about gold and are completely ignorant of the issues involved are non-gold bugs.

 

Why don't you call a spade a spade and use the word anti-goldbug for those that are prejudiced against natural currency?

 

Edit: I also think the term "gold bug" tends to be used loosely. As I understand it, a gold bug is someone who will always hoard gold no matter the wider economic conditions. I consider myself a gold bull.... as long as the secular bull remains.

[hotairmail]

Reuters video: "Japan firm serves China gold bug."

 

Enjoy.

 

 

http://uk.reuters.com/news/video?videoId=9...;videoChannel=5

[drbubb]

MORE History on the Oil-to-Gold ratio:

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=4147

 

Where is the Ratio now??

 

(Current) : Oil-to-Gold : Ounces of Gold to make 1 Barrel

 

It has been trading consistently above 0.13 for many weeks.

A break of that level (0.13) would be a sign that the Gold is trying to decouple.

And a fall below 0.125 (?) would be a further confirmation of that

 

Equivalent: 0.13 = 7.69 Barrels per Gold ounce

 

= = =

 

At $800, WTI needs to slip below $104 for the Ratio to break support

[Gatesy]

When markets are irrational, only the irrational make money. Best to get used to it, I guess.

Then I must be rational.

[wrongmove]

I think it says everything, so I don't need to say any more.

 

Of course it doesn't say everything.

 

UK property would be a contrarian investment at the moment - huge pessimism. Are you buying houses as well?

 

 

 

[wrongmove]

Even those who have no opinions whatsoever about gold and are completely ignorant of the issues involved are non-gold bugs.

 

Why don't you call a spade a spade and use the word anti-goldbug for those that are prejudiced against natural currency?

 

Edit: I also think the term "gold bug" tends to be used loosely. As I understand it, a gold bug is someone who will always hoard gold no matter the wider economic conditions. I consider myself a gold bull.... as long as the secular bull remains.

 

Would you class me as an anti-goldbug? I came to the debate with an open mind, and respect for the gains made by those who invested early. I learnt all I know about gold from these forums. I just don't agree with some of the basic premises of "gold buggery". I am prepared to back up my opinions with arguments and debate, and change my mind. I also accept that gold may "go to the moon", I simply don't accept that the probability is high enough to justify the downside risk.

 

 

I am asking, because it is pointless to debate if I am pigeon holed into a prejudged corner. That isn't debate, it just becomes a slanging match, and of no interest to me at all.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[romans holiday]

Would you class me as an anti-goldbug? I came to the debate with an open mind, and respect for the gains made by those who invested early. I learnt all I know about gold from these forums. I just don't agree with some of the basic premises of "gold buggery". I am prepared to back up my opinions with arguments and debate, and change my mind. I also accept that gold may "go to the moon", I simply don't accept that the probability is high enough to justify the downside risk.

 

 

I am asking, because it is pointless to debate if I am pigeon holed into a prejudged corner. That isn't debate, it just becomes a slanging match, and of no interest to me at all.

I don't know, are you? If so, that is OK. By the way I am not a gold bug... if you read my post you would see I was questioning the use of terms not calling anyone names.

 

Edit to add; Prejudice is not necessarily a derogative word. We all have our prejudices [pre-judgements] at core, ie- we all have certain beliefs then seek to justify those beliefs. Sometimes people will have fundamentally opposed prejudices/visions which no amount of reasoning will reconcile. Thats OK, what a boring world if everyone thought the same. But also how tediously boring if those of differing visions carried on arguing.

[drbubb]

Wrongmove,

What makes you think we do not welcome diverse opinions here?

 

Intelligent bear arguments will help "keep us on our toes"

 

I wish we had seen more of them in July.

I nailed the top on Oil, but failed to see it would extend to Gold.

 

I suppose I was blinded by my own position in Juniors

[drminky]

Wrongmove,

What makes you think we do not welcome diverse opinions here?

 

Intelligent bear arguments will help "keep us on our toes"

 

I wish we had seen more of them in July.

I nailed the top on Oil, but failed to see it would extend to Gold.

 

I suppose I was blinded by my own position in Juniors

 

What I don't understand is that since the beginning of the correction in oil, oil has been on average falling faster than gold. This should be somewhat bullish for the energy-hungry gold miners, as their margins improve, but why has the HUI:GOLD ratio basically mirrored the OIL:GOLD ratio and fallen off a cliff? That makes no sense to me..