GOLD

[Justin Thyme]

I'm seriously tempted to sell my BV position while about even, as I'm worried about the talk of $650 where I'd be at a loss. Maybe some physical too. I thought this time of year was positive for gold so I might wait a while and see.

 

I'm not selling a single gram. The dollar's dead - Period !

[wrongmove]

The dollar's dead - Period !

 

What do you mean by that - that there is no other possible outcome?

 

What if.......

 

.....after years of profligacy and pointless expensive wars which drove the dollar to all time lows against both other currencies and gold..............the US began to wake up. Military efforts were scaled down and the responsibility spread to other countries, the house market collapsed, massively reducing lending and hence monetary inflation, and making the public 'smell the coffee' of the reality of last few years.

 

i.e. is it utterly inconceivable that the dollar has put in a bottom after years of decline? It wouldn't be the first time the US have turned a situation like this around (e.g. post Reagan/Bush)

[Benall]

Gold goes up, gold goes down. Mostly it goes up. Simple really.

[enrieb]

Me too, I got my second 1 oz Kruger yesterday morning.

 

Bloke before me just picked up a couple of large gold bars!!! I felt a little inadequate when the lady behind the counter asked how much gold I wanted.

 

Its good to have two, they make that nice 'clink' sound when you drop them gently into your hand.

[enrieb]

What do you mean by that - that there is no other possible outcome?

 

What if.......

 

.....after years of profligacy and pointless expensive wars which drove the dollar to all time lows against both other currencies and gold..............the US began to wake up. Military efforts were scaled down and the responsibility spread to other countries, the house market collapsed, massively reducing lending and hence monetary inflation, and making the public 'smell the coffee' of the reality of last few years.

 

i.e. is it utterly inconceivable that the dollar has put in a bottom after years of decline? It wouldn't be the first time the US have turned a situation like this around (e.g. post Reagan/Bush)

 

The US military is the only thing holding up the dollar.

 

[G0ldfinger]

The US military is the only thing holding up the dollar.

You must admit, it's quite a big thing.

[pmaupoil]

I'm seriously tempted to sell my BV position while about even, as I'm worried about the talk of $650 where I'd be at a loss. Maybe some physical too. I thought this time of year was positive for gold so I might wait a while and see.

 

I do not know what is your investment strategy on gold but as a long-term investment, I would not take the risk to sell and buy during dips in such an uncontrolled climate. There are too many obscure forces! . The wisest strategy IMO is to keep and hold and stick with your original principles. These small falls are just noise to scare little investors and benefit large institutions to load up.

Sometimes I watch again Krassimir Petrov conferences to remind me that gold can only go one way in the next few years.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-2...92869&hl=en

 

[G0ldfinger]

Its good to have two, they make that nice 'clink' sound when you drop them gently into your hand.

I do that all the time. It also works with Silver Eagles/Maples or gold Sovereigns. Take a little stack of them, and let them gently drop one after the other back on the table (just from 1/4 inch height or so).

 

It's a very good exercise for one's hearing. Fakes that have a large content of other metals should sound differently. Less bright, I would assume.

[G0ldfinger]

What do you mean by that - that there is no other possible outcome?

 

What if.......

 

.....after years of profligacy and pointless expensive wars which drove the dollar to all time lows against both other currencies and gold..............the US began to wake up. Military efforts were scaled down and the responsibility spread to other countries, the house market collapsed, massively reducing lending and hence monetary inflation, and making the public 'smell the coffee' of the reality of last few years.

 

i.e. is it utterly inconceivable that the dollar has put in a bottom after years of decline? It wouldn't be the first time the US have turned a situation like this around (e.g. post Reagan/Bush)

I don't quite see this yet. Also, even if the USD has made a bottom against Sterling some time ago, it doesn't mean it's not still doomed. Only, Sterling is even more doomed.

[azazel]

I do that all the time. It also works with Silver Eagles/Maples or gold Sovereigns. Take a little stack of them, and let them gently drop one after the other back on the table (just from 1/4 inch height or so).

 

It's a very good exercise for one's hearing. Fakes that have a large content of other metals should sound differently. Less bright, I would assume.

 

haha. Try spinning a silver coin on a granite top. They spin for ages and the sound is great. Philhamonikers seem to work best as the edges are smooth. Silver is known for its acoustic qualities. Bells and flutes are made from it. At least the top quality ones are.

[G0ldfinger]

haha. Try spinning a silver coin on a granite top. They spin for ages and the sound is great. Philhamonikers seem to work best as the edges are smooth. Silver is known for its acoustic qualities. Bells and flutes are made from it. At least the top quality ones are.

Mouth pieces of brass instruments as well.

 

The amazing thing with silver is, even the tiniest silver coins, basically just small pieces of silver 'tin', have a very fine bright sound. My father has a few medieval silver coins of such tiny size. The silver content of these 'coins' would be worth less than 10p-20p I guess. I wonder what they bought back then.

[azazel]

Mouth pieces of brass instruments as well.

 

The amazing thing with silver is, even the tiniest silver coins, basically just small pieces of silver 'tin', have a very fine bright sound. My father has a few medieval silver coins of such tiny size. The silver content of these 'coins' would be worth less than 10p-20p I guess. I wonder what they bought back then.

 

I thought this was quite interesting. Call that a wealthy mans stash? LOL. I bet you could buy that much silver for about £3000, or about two weeks wages for a plumber these days!

 

http://historyhuntersworldwide.com/node/50

[drbubb]

What are the significance of 'Gaps' as seen on the Oil/Gold Charts and pointed out be DrB?

 

Gaps tend to get filled (maybe 90-95% of the time).

So a gap down on the opening suggests that the market may want to come back up.

 

Did anyone bother to look at that XAU chart? ... update

 

The fact that XAU has come back down to the 987d.MA* on lighter volume with this Gold drop,

suggests that the downside pressure is exhausting itself.

 

I look for a move up in Gold and Gold shares from here

 

*987 is a Fibonacci number

[qwerty]

I thought this was quite interesting. Call that a wealthy mans stash? LOL. I bet you could buy that much silver for about £3000, or about two weeks wages for a plumber these days

 

I wonder how much these poor gold miners get paid!

 

 

 

 

 

Scene from Powaqqatsi Documentary.

 

http://www.koyaanisqatsi.org/films/powaqqatsi.php

[Catflap]

Gold Targetting ABC Trend to $900:

 

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article6073.html

 

[Steve Netwriter]

New thread here:

 

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=4139

 

 

Please use the new thread, thanks

 

[drbubb]

*(From the new GANN thread):

 

That's a mere 1% miss on a Double.

 

A 50% retracement to near Dow-10,500 would be a possible Gann target

(Note: Dow-10,729 might be a more precise figure. That's 49.5% up from 7,778)

 

Here's the recent action, since the 2007 Peak ... update

 

 

Now look back. What was the the price range on the day of the recent Low?

 

Tuesday, July 15, 2008

Closing Price: 10,962.54

Open: 10,938.11

High: 11,201.67

Low: 10,731.96 - that's just 3 dow points away from the Target Low (above)

 

Anyone who thinks this is "random price action" must think that the time the sun rises each morning

is random! There must be some natural law at work here. Gann tried to discover it.

 

/see: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=4141

 

BTW, the above chart looks like it is set for another fall, I expect 10,732 (or lower) will be tested soon

[bitbigt]

So why is it dropping now? And what will reverse that trend? I can see physical demand from jewelers, for example, putting in a floor, but why should it then shoot up and recoup all the recent losses and then some?

 

One logical explanation for the falls in gold (and falls in pretty well everything else) is a somewhat "disorderly deleveraging", i.e. a rush to cash from leveraged positions. What is wrong with this explanation, and, if "gold is different", why is behaving the same as everything else, in bad times as well as good?

It's falling 'now' (as in these last few days) because oil is falling, making people less worried about inflation.

 

In my view, the main current driers for PoG are PoO and USDX. And the current slide in PoO and rise in USDX may push gold down further, at least in dollars

 

However...

- The logic that a falling oil price will lead to lower inflation may be wrong: oil going from 60-80 to 100-110 surely is inflationary, but above that it's more likely to prompt a global slowdown and deflation! Therefore, by dropping down from 147 to 110 I think its actually pro-inflationary (as growth will now not be slowed).

- the USDX strengthenning can't run that much further, as the US really does have a lot of problems and high M3

 

So to answer your direct question about the gold price and "what will reverse that [downward] trend?" - I'd say that oil will bottom, USDX will top out, and inflation will not go away as the CBs keep telling us it will. Oil will then start rising, USDX will fall, and inflation will be front and center in everyones mind - very bullish for gold. When? ...this autumn I suspect

[Steve Netwriter]

I'm seriously tempted to sell my BV position while about even, as I'm worried about the talk of $650 where I'd be at a loss. Maybe some physical too. I thought this time of year was positive for gold so I might wait a while and see.

 

A few points for you. I hope they help.

 

1. Sell at the top, buy at the bottom. Not the other way round

 

2. Given the influence the paper gold/silver market has, I accept that it is possible for the paper price to plummet short-term. I do not know how far it is possible for it to fall if all paper gold/silver longs and shorts were removed.

I do not care

There is no way I would sell gold/silver to buy......what ? GBP ? US$ ? Houses ?

 

This is a vital point. When selling one asset, what do you buy instead ?

 

The only things I can think of are Yen & Swiss Francs...if you want to accept the fiat risk.

Whether there is a black swan event that causes a paper gold/silver 'event', I am convinced the physical price will be much higher long-term, and there is no way I'd sell the safe haven insurance.

 

3. Please read this very very carefully. I'll put it in big text

 

In the gold market the miners are almost always sellers at whatever price they are able to get at the time their gold is ready for sale, and the price they get is almost solely determined by the investment/speculative demand for the total aboveground gold supply. It is also worth mentioning that the investment/speculative demand for gold trends inversely to the investment demand for financial assets such as stocks and bonds, which is why the current major upward trend in gold commenced during 1999-2001 -- at around the same time as the major upward trend in financial assets ended.

 

So IMO the question is a simple one.

Do you think this is:

1. A bullish phase for financial assets such as stocks and bonds

or

2. Not.

 

The latter point from this excellent article by Steve Saville:

 

 

Gold Supply and Demand

http://www.24hgold.com/viewarticle.aspx?la...d_Steve_Saville

 

IMO stay strong. Worry not about the short-term.

 

I hope that helps :D

[Steve Netwriter]

Also posted on the deflation/inflation thread:

 

Steve Saville's contribution to the deflation/inflation debate - and for here - the prospects for gold

 

The Coming Deflation Scare

http://www.24hgold.com/viewarticle.aspx?la...p;filter=latest

 

 

I rather like that article.

 

Edit: I notice he accepts gold grams as payment:

 

US$120 for 12 months (payment by GoldGrams - see Note 2 below)

 

2. GoldGrams represent physical gold stored in a vault and can be used to securely and efficiently make payments via the Internet. To find out more go to www.goldmoney.com. If you choose to pay for your TSI subscription using GoldGrams please transfer the equivalent of US$120 in GoldGrams (use the latest exchange rate listed at goldmoney.com) to the following goldmoney holding:

Goldmoney Holding Name: The Speculative Investor

Goldmoney Holding Number: 50-25-53-G

 

[Steve Netwriter]

I've just found Steve's free samples. They are slightly delayed, but well worth a read IMO.

 

http://www.speculative-investor.com/new/freesamples.html

 

An example:

 

From the 25th August 2008 Weekly Update:

 

Gold Market Indicators

 

Further to the discussion of gold supply/demand included earlier in today's report, there is no shortage of gold in the world and there never will be. The amount of gold in the world is so high relative to the amount used in industrial/commercial processes that obtaining physical gold will only ever be a question of price. However, short-term shortages of gold in certain forms will develop from time to time because manufacturers won't always be able to anticipate changes in the public's demand. Recently, for example, the US Mint reported that it had run out of one particular type of gold coin. This created the misconception in some quarters that there was a shortage of physical gold in the world and that the physical market had diverged from the futures market.

 

As far as the outlook for market prices is concerned, the short-term shortage of some types of gold and silver coins caused by an unexpected -- by mints and dealers -- surge in the public's demand for these coins is either meaningless or bearish. The reason it should not be construed bullishly is that rising demand for an investment on the part of the general public at a time when the investment's price is falling constitutes a bearish sentiment divergence.

 

Given that we are positioned for an intermediate-term bullish outcome in the gold and silver markets it is of some concern to us that the public seems to be reacting to outward signs of inflation -- by gobbling up well-known inflation hedges such as gold coins -- at a time when the outward signs of inflation (price increases for everyday items) are about to start dissipating.

 

Our bullish view anticipates the inflationary actions that will almost certainly be taken by governments and central banks as the economic outlook continues to deteriorate and as bailouts are arranged for financial corporations. To be more specific, we think that the single best reason to be intermediate-term bullish on gold and gold stocks right now is that the US government and most other governments will massively ramp up their borrowing in a typically counter-productive effort to stimulate their weakening economies, with a lot of this new government debt being monetised by the banking system (the central banks and the private banks). However, the public appears to be reacting to old news. Our concern is that many of the people who have recently been clamouring to buy gold and silver coins in response to the superficial evidence of past inflation may well be clamouring to sell them in several months time.

 

On a more positive note (for those who are long gold), other sentiment indicators have shifted to levels that are supportive of higher prices. For example, the latest Commitments of Traders (COT) Report shows that small traders in COMEX gold futures now have their smallest collective net-long position since November of 2005 (refer to the following sharelynx.com chart for details). In other words, the COT Report suggests that, as a group, small traders of gold futures are now less optimistic about gold's prospects than they have been at any time over the past three years. This is exactly the sort of sentiment we'd expect to see near an important price low and overrides the concerns we have regarding the public's current enthusiasm for gold coins.

 

.......

[wren]

A hedge fund closing.

Ospraie Will Close Hedge Fund After 38 Percent Loss (Update1)

 

By Katherine Burton and Saijel Kishan

 

Sept. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Ospraie Management LLC, the investment firm run by Dwight Anderson, will close its biggest hedge fund after it fell 38.6 percent this year because of losing wagers on commodity stocks, according to a letter to investors.

 

The Ospraie Fund lost 26.7 percent in August, after a ``substantial sell-off in a number of our energy, mining and resource equity holdings,'' Anderson, 41, wrote in the letter today.

 

``I am extremely disappointed with this result and the fund's sudden reversal in performance,'' he said. ``After nine years of striving to be a good steward of your capital, I am very sorry for this outcome.''

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

[Justin Thyme]

What do you mean by that - that there is no other possible outcome?

 

What if.......

 

.....after years of profligacy and pointless expensive wars which drove the dollar to all time lows against both other currencies and gold..............the US began to wake up. Military efforts were scaled down and the responsibility spread to other countries, the house market collapsed, massively reducing lending and hence monetary inflation, and making the public 'smell the coffee' of the reality of last few years.

 

i.e. is it utterly inconceivable that the dollar has put in a bottom after years of decline? It wouldn't be the first time the US have turned a situation like this around (e.g. post Reagan/Bush)

 

I mean that, in the context of medium-to long term gold investment, US monetary policy has yet to demonstrate the level of prudence required to prevent it retesting lows set earlier this year. As James Turk suggested recently, the inexplicable resurgence of the dollar against the euro was likely the result of unofficial central bank intervention and I, like many contributors to this board, are betting that the Fed can't keep the plates spinning indefinitely.

 

The change of direction you allude is entirely possible but unlikely to manifest itself for many years to come. The US psyche is geared toward the acquisition of wealth and that relies in in no small part on the US's continued profligacy. Whether or not the emergence of China and Russia's economic ambitions leaves enough meat on the superpower bone, the US isn't going to give up its top dog status without a fight.

[drbubb]

Market Call Tonight : August 28, 2008 : Live on Location Part 1 [08-28-08 7:00PM]

August 28, 2008

August 2008

Market Call Tonight

BNN speaks to John Embry, chief investment strategist, Sprott Asset Management.

http://watch.bnn.ca/market-call-tonight/au...-2008#clip86659

 

shortgage of physical gold,

counter-intuitive price move

[wrongmove]

I mean that, in the context of medium-to long term gold investment, US monetary policy has yet to demonstrate the level of prudence required to prevent it retesting lows set earlier this year. As James Turk suggested recently, the inexplicable resurgence of the dollar against the euro was likely the result of unofficial central bank intervention and I, like many contributors to this board, are betting that the Fed can't keep the plates spinning indefinitely.

 

The change of direction you allude is entirely possible but unlikely to manifest itself for many years to come. The US psyche is geared toward the acquisition of wealth and that relies in in no small part on the US's continued profligacy. Whether or not the emergence of China and Russia's economic ambitions leaves enough meat on the superpower bone, the US isn't going to give up its top dog status without a fight.

 

Are the CBs capable of moving the worlds biggest currency by 10%? I somehow doubt it. Why hasn't the market "done a Soros"?

 

Surely a simpler explanation that fits the facts (i.e. assets down, dollar up) is that people have been selling assets to generate cash?