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Our precious is being trapped into a little corner at the mo.

 

I think the next move up is going to be explosive...that interview was very good and totally agree with Adrian. His comments on silver were fascinating. I am glad I have both gold and silver!

 

 

 

 

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You really MUST listen to this

Seriously.

 

Interview with Adrian Douglas of GATA & marketforceanalysis.com about Gold&Silver

 

http://www.thefinancialtube.com/video/3551...orceanalysiscom

Great interview Steve, thanks for posting.

 

 

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You really MUST listen to this

...

 

http://www.thefinancialtube.com/video/3551...orceanalysiscom

Interesting what he said about seasonals: that it may go against the average seasonal behaviour and catch a lot of people out.

 

Just the last week or so I have been wondering the same thing: as so many seem to expect a summer doldrums and maybe correction.

 

Now I'm wondering if it might push up strongly in June maybe to a new all-time high in July, but followed by a strong pullback into August.

 

If I were the cartel I would try to engineer something like that. Catch out those expecting seasonal slowness by pushing it up in June far enough to pull most in long, then smack it down like hell in July or August.

 

Working for the cartel might be quite fun in a malicious sort of way. :D

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I must look into his system, as at least it sounds scientifically plausible (unlike tea leaf reading etc):

 

http://marketforceanalysis.com/

 

How it works:

 

http://marketforceanalysis.com/About_MFA.html

 

As usual I remain skeptical until I can see real merit.

 

By the way, who does he sound like? Is it William Hage or ? He sounds so familiar.

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By the way, who does he sound like? Is it William Hage or ? He sounds so familiar.

Yeah, he reminded me of William Hague. It would be great to see an explosive move up in gold and silver.

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This is a good explanation of market force analysis:

http://marketforceanalysis.com/index_asset...ading%20MFA.pdf

 

Because the supply and demand imbalance that MFA determines includes the

actions of the gold cartel, or anyone else attempting to manipulate the market,

the predictions take into account the cartel's influence (which if it is dominant will

actually determine the market direction). Market moves may be counter-intuitive

with respect to currency and economic considerations etc but they are NOT

counter-intuitive with respect to the prevailing supply and demand

imbalance...and it is that which drives price. The key is to know what the

prevailing supply and demand imbalance is and then you know what the price will

do. This is what this new use of MFA achieves - it determines the prevailing

supply and demand imbalance. The cartel influences the supply and demand

imbalance to make the price go in the direction they want it to go in; a direction

that doesn't make sense to us from macro considerations, but it is totally

coherent with their interference.

 

And an article about Cartel manipulation:

http://marketforceanalysis.com/index_asset...THE%20COMEX.pdf

 

 

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You really MUST listen to this

Seriously.

Interview with Adrian Douglas of GATA & marketforceanalysis.com about Gold&Silver

http://www.thefinancialtube.com/video/3551...orceanalysiscom

 

Listening to it now.

It sounds like he has a "black box computersised system" to sell, and he doesnt really want

us to know what is in the black box.

 

My own technical work, shows recent price moves have been weak, not strong, it would be

interesting to REALLY know what he sees that is different.

 

What kind of track record does he have?

 

I read this:

"Because the supply and demand imbalance that MFA determines includes the

actions of the gold cartel, or anyone else attempting to manipulate the market,

the predictions take into account the cartel's influence (which if it is dominant will

actually determine the market direction). Market moves may be counter-intuitive

with respect to currency and economic considerations etc but they are NOT

counter-intuitive with respect to the prevailing supply and demand

imbalance...and it is that which drives price. The key is to know what the

prevailing supply and demand imbalance is and then you know what the price will

do. This is what this new use of MFA achieves - it determines the prevailing

supply and demand imbalance. The cartel influences the supply and demand

imbalance to make the price go in the direction they want it to go in; a direction

that doesn't make sense to us from macro considerations, but it is totally

coherent with their interference."

 

It doesnt tell me anything, and reads like BS from a con-artist.

 

Gata's research and analysis is on very thin ice, and Bill Murphy has admitted this

to me in a private conversation, but not in the same words.

 

Dont get sucked in by these shysters!

But also, dont reject all their work, some is worthwhile. But most is not. Dig deeper,

and see if it passes your own personal "makes sense test."

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Listening to it now.

Dont get sucked in by these shysters!

But also, dont reject all their work, some is worthwhile. But most is not. Dig deeper,

and see if it passes your own personal "makes sense test."

 

What, in particular, don't you reject, Dr B?

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Listening to it now.

It sounds like he has a "black box computersised system" to sell, and he doesnt really want

us to know what is in the black box.

 

My own technical work, shows recent price moves have been weak, not strong, it would be

interesting to REALLY know what he sees that is different.

 

What kind of track record does he have?

 

I read this:

"Because the supply and demand imbalance that MFA determines includes the

actions of the gold cartel, or anyone else attempting to manipulate the market,

the predictions take into account the cartel's influence (which if it is dominant will

actually determine the market direction). Market moves may be counter-intuitive

with respect to currency and economic considerations etc but they are NOT

counter-intuitive with respect to the prevailing supply and demand

imbalance...and it is that which drives price. The key is to know what the

prevailing supply and demand imbalance is and then you know what the price will

do. This is what this new use of MFA achieves - it determines the prevailing

supply and demand imbalance. The cartel influences the supply and demand

imbalance to make the price go in the direction they want it to go in; a direction

that doesn't make sense to us from macro considerations, but it is totally

coherent with their interference."

 

It doesnt tell me anything, and reads like BS from a con-artist.

 

Gata's research and analysis is on very thin ice, and Bill Murphy has admitted this

to me in a private conversation, but not in the same words.

 

Dont get sucked in by these shysters!

But also, dont reject all their work, some is worthwhile. But most is not. Dig deeper,

and see if it passes your own personal "makes sense test."

 

"...reads like BS from a con-artist."

 

This was exactly my feeling upon listening to this interview.

 

Thanks for making this point Dr B

 

We must be careful to be objective, and not subjectively believe the things we want to hear. I hear nothing in this guys description that objectively convinces me.

 

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"...reads like BS from a con-artist."

 

This was exactly my feeling upon listening to this interview.

 

Thanks for making this point Dr B

 

We must be careful to be objective, and not subjectively believe the things we want to hear. I hear nothing in this guys description that objectively convinces me.

From http://www.marketforceanalysis.com/About_MFA.html

 

Market Force Analysis - What is it?

 

General

 

Any economist would agree that it is the imbalance between supply and demand that drives the free market price of any commodity. Supply and demand are usually only estimated on a macro-level; for example, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reports such estimates of world demand and world supply for the energy markets. It is notoriously inaccurate and generally has little to no utility in determining the outlook for the energy market. As a result most analysts are constrained to analyzing price to estimate forward market trends. This is fraught with inherent errors because price trends cannot be extrapolated over long periods of time.

 

 

Market Force Analysis (MFA) is a unique approach to commodity market analysis (patent pending). A unique algorithm has been developed to extract supply and demand from futures market data. The difference between supply and demand is the market imbalance which is called market force, so named because it is that which drives price. This is an extremely powerful and accurate way of analyzing commodity markets. It brings clarity to past market action and predicts future market trends. It allows the market of any commodity to be characterized as Bull, Bear or neutral and it indicates good entry and exit points for market participants.

If forward market trends are estimated through price analysis (fraught with errors) then won't that be how futures markets are set? If that's where the data from which the 'unique algorithm' extracts supply and demand (possible?) from, then how are the errors avoided?

 

Well, he reckons it's going to happen very soon so we'll see if they called it right.

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The evidence you seek is right before you in the charts ;)

 

IHSGold.jpg

 

 

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The evidence you seek is right before you in the charts ;)

 

Seeing as I've just made (begrudging and partial) preparations for a drop, could be that's what it'll do. Sinclair and www.ashraflaidi.com reckoning on up in June.

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From http://www.marketforceanalysis.com/About_MFA.html

 

 

If forward market trends are estimated through price analysis (fraught with errors) then won't that be how futures markets are set? If that's where the data from which the 'unique algorithm' extracts supply and demand (possible?) from, then how are the errors avoided?

 

Well, he reckons it's going to happen very soon so we'll see if they called it right.

Surely if he believes a cartel are price fixing gold, then the "market force" algorythm would be better applied to some other "freely traded" futures market. Why prognosticate about gold at all, unless being able to rely on blaming the cartel for all the bad calls is seen as a benefit?

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Just a slight side issue, but isn't this generally accepted by people as correct? i.e. the massive shorts from GS + DB + MS which effectively causes price capping because of the gold carry trade.

 

Surely if he believes a cartel are price fixing gold

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Just a slight side issue, but isn't this generally accepted by people as correct? i.e. the massive shorts from GS + DB + MS which effectively causes price capping because of the gold carry trade.

No, I don't think it is generally accepted. Some people are convinced there is a politically motivated cartel, especially on the dedicated gold forums and newsletters, but plenty of people are not. The large concentrated short positions do not imply official collusion.

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From:

 

Thanks for posting that ziknik - i never knew gold was in cpu's...or used in satellites.

 

Kind of makes me wonder why gold is still stuck at $930, while the pound reaches 7 month highs...

 

 

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Thanks for posting that ziknik - i never knew gold was in cpu's...or used in satellites.

 

Kind of makes me wonder why gold is still stuck at $930, while the pound reaches 7 month highs...

Near 940 now. Gold going strong due in part to a weak dollar at the moment. Also, I reckon there is a lot of money lining up to buy... given currency concerns. Add in the inflation hedge factor and I kind of doubt we will see much of a dip. Will be interesting to see if it can break above 950... I think it will likely range between 950 and 900 for the summer. Also, just about everything is up here.

 

Gold Demand Surges 38% on Investment, Council Says

May 20 (Bloomberg) -- Gold purchases rose 38 percent in the first quarter, led by investment demand that exceeded usage by jewelers for the first time since at least 2004, according to the World Gold Council.

 

Global demand increased to 1,015.5 metric tons, from 733.9 tons a year earlier, the London-based council said today in a report based on figures from research company GFMS Ltd. Investment purchases more than tripled to 595.9 tons while jewelry demand fell 24 percent to 339.4 tons.

 

Gold rose to an 11-month high of $1,006.29 an ounce on Feb. 20 as governments spent trillions of dollars to fight recession, sparking speculation inflation will accelerate. In India, the world’s largest gold buyer last year, jewelry demand was the lowest in at least 20 years and net retail investment turned negative for the first time as holders sold metal for recycling, the council said. Chinese demand was six times that of India.

 

“In the current environment, investment demand is part of the diversification of assets in portfolios and therefore is less sensitive to price than jewelry demand,” said John Meyer, research director at Fairfax IS in London.

 

Investment demand for coins, bars and exchange-traded funds was the highest since at least 2004, when GFMS began tracking them, and “could well be” a record, GFMS senior metals analyst Philip Newman said. Jewelry demand had accounted for about two- thirds of gold demand in the past 30 years, he said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=new...id=a9KLEjc7x2ww

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Thanks for posting that ziknik - i never knew gold was in cpu's...or used in satellites.

 

Kind of makes me wonder why gold is still stuck at $930, while the pound reaches 7 month highs...

No sooner have you said it than gold launches!

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No sooner have you said it than gold launches!

 

Almost makes you think the PPT read our gold threads! :unsure:

 

:lol:

 

 

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Gold is only really rising in dollars...so far.

 

Yep, I read recently (can't remember where) that the GBP has done well of late as a result of the rally in risk. I think most on this site see that rally as temporary in which case we could see gold fall back into the USD 800s but at the same time see little depreciation in terms of Gold vs GBP. - i.e. what gold loses against the dollar it will gain against the pound.

 

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